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mzforfree
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June 18, 2017, 11:26:01 PM
 #1

what % of entire market of btc is black market compared to % of fiat market vs black

sounds if confusing but trying to do graphical analysis of different variables and their effect on market prices

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June 19, 2017, 01:13:42 AM
 #2

what % of entire market of btc is black market compared to % of fiat market vs black

sounds if confusing but trying to do graphical analysis of different variables and their effect on market prices

I don't think this question makes a lot of sense, can you clarify what you mean? Do you mean what percentage of bitcoin transactions are used to make illegal "black market" purchases? If so, the answer is probably very low. The vast majority of transactions are probably done by people just trading bitcoin and/or alt coins.

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June 19, 2017, 06:01:19 AM
 #3

what % of entire market of btc is black market compared to % of fiat market vs black

sounds if confusing but trying to do graphical analysis of different variables and their effect on market prices

There`s no way to gather such information.
Nobody can measure the dark cryptocurrency market.
I don`t think that anyone could define a dark market.Even the bitcointalk marketplace could be a dark market,because it`s illegal to resell coupons,gift cards and accounts,but the people sell them for cryptos every day.
I guess that the black market is around 10% of the entire market.
It doesn`t matter if it`s crypto or fiat.

 



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June 19, 2017, 07:21:02 AM
 #4

what % of entire market of btc is black market compared to % of fiat market vs black

sounds if confusing but trying to do graphical analysis of different variables and their effect on market prices

Depends what year we base it on I would presume somewhere between 5 to 10% with less relatively each year but that does not include altcoin switches in the lower % range etc.
The point is that it is hard to measure hence its a shadow market and the percentage of the underground economy can only be guessed at not determined concretely.
So more than a nations average of 2-3% it still exists but in a lesser form than it used to. 
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June 19, 2017, 07:24:18 AM
 #5

As an user stated this could have been varying year to year. By the beginning days around the year of 2008 the usage might e high on the black market. Now this could have changed a lot making a 50-50% usage. Maybe in future the same continues or the usage of bitcoin on black market gets decreased.



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pinkflower
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June 19, 2017, 12:51:02 PM
 #6

what % of entire market of btc is black market compared to % of fiat market vs black

sounds if confusing but trying to do graphical analysis of different variables and their effect on market prices

I don't think this question makes a lot of sense, can you clarify what you mean? Do you mean what percentage of bitcoin transactions are used to make illegal "black market" purchases? If so, the answer is probably very low. The vast majority of transactions are probably done by people just trading bitcoin and/or alt coins.

If the black market includes the darknet then its the majority of all BTC transactions, excluding trading. No one really uses BTC for buying regular store items like coffee. It would be a waste of the currency.



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June 19, 2017, 03:55:07 PM
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Are you asking what the volume of bitcoin transactions are for illegal activities/goods/services vs. legal activities/goods/services?

Not all transactions on the black market are for illegal goods and services, it's just that the black market is conducted outside the formal, regulated market place...which in itself is illegal.

There's nothing about the black market that implies "greater use of bitcoin". So a starting point could be understanding what percentage of total transactions are done through bitcoin and then applying that percentage to estimates of the black market transaction volume or revenue volume size. That's just the starting. Then let's say we believe that bitcoin is twice as likely to be used in a black market transaction than in a formal market transaction, we then up the percentage share by 2x and it gets us a closer estimate of how much the black market transactions are conducted in bitcoin.

If this rationale is in line with the answers you're trying to come up with, let me know and I'll help you find the numbers to start putting real thought behind the answers. The first step is getting very clear with what question you're trying to solve for.

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June 19, 2017, 04:30:00 PM
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Obviously you won't be able to gather any solid data for your analysis, you can only hope for estimates.

For fiat market, the best estimates would be official data for EU countries, since 2014 each EU member state need to factor in illegal activities in their GDP. Dig around and you should find relevant info.

For Bitcoin, it's much trickier and impossible to tell. But you could start with narrowing the definition of 'black market', perhaps take the Silkroad activity historical data, estimated $1.2 bn in 2014, add ~ $1bn of ransom market for 2016. Assume these are the major sources of illegal btc transaction (or identify more), compare to total $ value of annual btc transactions (but you'd have to somehow exclude internal btc txs, i.e. exchanges moving funds between own wallets) and maybe you'll come up with some semi-reliable figure.
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June 19, 2017, 08:32:06 PM
 #9

The so called black market of Bitcoin aka the tor marketplaces are actually a few of the first pioneers that embraced Bitcoin and if you take into consideration the huge amounts of coins that where spent there in the early years you can imagine their current liquidity. I'd say they make around 30% of the Bitcoin economy.

 With fiat it's totally different, though I don't know exact numbers even if you have billions of dollars circulating in the black market, inflation shrinks the percentage every single day.
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June 19, 2017, 10:04:53 PM
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... I'd say they make around 30% of the Bitcoin economy.
Depends whether you want to include or exclude trading activity on exchanges, these are done offchain and are not real Bitcoin transactions, but you could treat them as equivalents. These would probably exceed 90% of Bitcoin activity.

With fiat it's totally different, though I don't know exact numbers even if you have billions of dollars circulating in the black market, inflation shrinks the percentage every single day.

iirc it's something in the range 1-5% (of GDP) for EU countries (excluding 'grey areas').

Inflation has close to zero effect on black market/total market ratio.
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June 20, 2017, 10:57:12 AM
 #11

Are you asking what the volume of bitcoin transactions are for illegal activities/goods/services vs. legal activities/goods/services?

Not all transactions on the black market are for illegal goods and services, it's just that the black market is conducted outside the formal, regulated market place...which in itself is illegal.

There's nothing about the black market that implies "greater use of bitcoin". So a starting point could be understanding what percentage of total transactions are done through bitcoin and then applying that percentage to estimates of the black market transaction volume or revenue volume size. That's just the starting. Then let's say we believe that bitcoin is twice as likely to be used in a black market transaction than in a formal market transaction, we then up the percentage share by 2x and it gets us a closer estimate of how much the black market transactions are conducted in bitcoin.

If this rationale is in line with the answers you're trying to come up with, let me know and I'll help you find the numbers to start putting real thought behind the answers. The first step is getting very clear with what question you're trying to solve for.

Yes ty, that was what i was asking.

In a sense yes it is hard to figure out the black market but I remember Pablo Escobar at one point being on the Forbes 100 wealthiest in the world using analysis somehow of seizures to estimates of product being moved to equity Escobar had that were legitimate, etc.

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June 20, 2017, 01:22:16 PM
 #12

The so called black market of Bitcoin aka the tor marketplaces are actually a few of the first pioneers that embraced Bitcoin and if you take into consideration the huge amounts of coins that where spent there in the early years you can imagine their current liquidity. I'd say they make around 30% of the Bitcoin economy.

 With fiat it's totally different, though I don't know exact numbers even if you have billions of dollars circulating in the black market, inflation shrinks the percentage every single day.

Im curious to know whether the darknet market places were there first before BTC or was BTC first and then they built the darknet market place second?

If the darknet market places were there first then what was the currency used before BTC?



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pinkflower
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June 22, 2017, 01:54:53 AM
 #13

Bump. Does anybody know or is everyone in this site as uniformed and dumb as me?

I cant find any information about the real history behind the first darknet drug market, the Silk Road. It doesnt have the detailed things I am looking for like what started it first, was it because of BTC or something else?

If it was there before BTC, what was the currency used before it?



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Sithara007
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June 22, 2017, 01:58:04 AM
 #14

As an user stated this could have been varying year to year. By the beginning days around the year of 2008 the usage might e high on the black market. Now this could have changed a lot making a 50-50% usage. Maybe in future the same continues or the usage of bitcoin on black market gets decreased.

A lot of Bitcoins are still used for trade in the Dark markets, but the proportion has gone down over the years. I think that the current share will be far lower than 50%. It may be most likely in the 5% to 10% range.

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June 22, 2017, 02:47:29 AM
 #15

Here's an interesting article I just came across, which values the Bitcoin market and compares it to other major financial numbers or markets: http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/06/bitcoin-economy-perspective/

they say theBitcoin market is at $41B, just less than a third of the total value of USD in the world.

And here's an article describing or defining the Black Market: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_market

If we could find out how much black market activity is conducted in USD we could start to develop some assumptions about how much black market activity is conducted in Bitcoin.

Are you asking what the volume of bitcoin transactions are for illegal activities/goods/services vs. legal activities/goods/services?

Yes ty, that was what i was asking.

In a sense yes it is hard to figure out the black market but I remember Pablo Escobar at one point being on the Forbes 100 wealthiest in the world using analysis somehow of seizures to estimates of product being moved to equity Escobar had that were legitimate, etc.

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June 22, 2017, 04:04:50 AM
 #16

there was a time when people were uninformed and thought bitcoin is giving the full anonymity also by that time no other anonymous cryptocurrency existed or were popular. then people started knowing bitcoin is not really anonymous, and also other real anon cryptos such as monero came. long story short these days bitcoin share of the market is nearly non existent. everyone is either using cash or XMR. some are using some other anon alts.

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June 22, 2017, 04:15:04 AM
 #17

what % of entire market of btc is black market compared to % of fiat market vs black

sounds if confusing but trying to do graphical analysis of different variables and their effect on market prices

I don't think this question makes a lot of sense, can you clarify what you mean? Do you mean what percentage of bitcoin transactions are used to make illegal "black market" purchases? If so, the answer is probably very low. The vast majority of transactions are probably done by people just trading bitcoin and/or alt coins.

If the black market includes the darknet then its the majority of all BTC transactions, excluding trading. No one really uses BTC for buying regular store items like coffee. It would be a waste of the currency.
Disagree. Many people use bitcoin for buying ordinary things like coffee and pizza actually. If there are no places that accept bitcoin directly at your place, it doesn't mean the situation is the same everywhere.
I suppose the percentage is shared like this: 50% of HODL bitcoins with expectation of 10k$ price for this currency or something like that; 25% black market (drugs and weapons); 25% daily things.
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June 22, 2017, 04:46:04 AM
 #18

what % of entire market of btc is black market compared to % of fiat market vs black

sounds if confusing but trying to do graphical analysis of different variables and their effect on market prices
Maybe up to 15% of the Bitcoin market is composed of black market transactions I would say, there's a relatively low likelihood it is as prevalent as everyone wants to say it was. There's a lot of money and users in Bitcoin now, so there's a lot more diversity in use compared to the early 2010s. As for fiat, IIRC the GDP of the black market is something like 15% of national GDP in big black-market countries and closer to 6% in most other countries.
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June 22, 2017, 07:14:14 AM
 #19

There is actually no definite answer to this question as it is quite hard to monitor how much of Bitcoin money goes into the black market circulation. Maybe there can be some estimates as we can come up the value of the black market based on their possible transactions.

Anyway, maybe you are trying to find out to know if indeed the black market is holding a big sway on Bitcoin. I believe that black market is big but there is nothing that can beat the normal whitehat market. We are much bigger than those involved in the illegal side of the Bitcoin landscape.

And this is the reason why if any legislation can come up regulating Bitcoin it should be on the service provider side and not on Bitcoin directly because Bitcoin is just like the dollar that can be used legally or illegally.

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June 22, 2017, 07:18:40 AM
 #20

what % of entire market of btc is black market compared to % of fiat market vs black

sounds if confusing but trying to do graphical analysis of different variables and their effect on market prices
The only thing that is sure here is, the fiat market is bigger than black market because the black market is not using bitcoin anymore as their payment method because there is monero that is completely anonymous with a lot safer and faster transaction than bitcoin can give to its black market users.

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