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Author Topic: New Poloniex Lending Bot Automation  (Read 1158 times)
bruno222
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June 19, 2017, 02:23:06 AM
 #1

Hey guys,

(first post, I am new on Bitcoin world, I've been Developer for +15 years)

I am building a Bot to create Loans on Poloniex automatically, for three main reasons:

  1. I don't have time to keep watching if a Loan was returned at any random time to my wallet (it happens a lot)
  2. This Bot tend to get the best Loan Ratio on that time. Better than I thought.
  3. I don't need to setup any variable to calibrate it - The bot simply know the best ratio based in a lot of things - it's plug and play - booomm!

Right now, I have 20 loans of 0.01 BTC each, and my average rate per day is 0.1848% - Is that good? Anyone making a better rate than this?

I built this Bot for personal use, but now that I am becoming addictive to it, I want to expend more time onto it , facing it as a side project - I am thinking perhaps someone wants to pay around 5% to 10% of your profit to use it on SaaS model (software as a service). I still have a lot of work to do, but the core of the bot is ready and working! If you got interested, send me a DM for a free trial (only if you have more then 0.2 BTC on Lending, please)

Photos to prove it (print of poloniex lending + print of my Bot):
http://imgur.com/a/pmZsW
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Quickseller
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June 19, 2017, 03:26:48 AM
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Your concern is should not be so much if you are able to get a good interest rate, although this is one small thing you should be concerned about, you should be more concerned about how long your loan offers are sitting in the lending book, because this is time when you receive no interest.

I would also point out to you that it is expected that a number of forks are expected to take place on the Bitcoin blockchain within the next couple of months, and poloniex has publicly stated they will not give credit for the 'forked' coins to lenders, so it would be il-
advised to keep your BTC on poloniex past late July.

bruno222
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June 19, 2017, 12:15:00 PM
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you should be more concerned about how long your loan offers are sitting in the lending book

You're right! The Bot does make loans every 0.01 BTC amounts. So the logic for this is:

RULE 1: If I only have 0.01 in my wallet, so the Loan Offer can sits a while in the Lending Book, waiting for the best offer. Here I Loan for 15 days.

RULE 2: If I have more then 0.01, then the Bot tries to get the almost-best-rate. The point here is: Get the Loan as fast as can! Here I loan for only 2 days.

In the end, most of my loans goes to the logic RULE 1, so I am getting the best landing offer in average... Once a while, when Poloniex cancel a lot of Loans at once, then the RULE 2 came in, making Loans not in the best rate, but prioritizing the "Less time siting on the Loan Booking"

I would also point out to you that it is expected that a number of forks are expected to take place on the Bitcoin blockchain within the next couple of months...
... advised to keep your BTC on poloniex past late July.

I read that yesterday. What is your advise here?

1. Convert the BTC to FIAT?
2. Convert BTC to any other AltCoin?
3. Just leave the BTC in the wallet?

I am looking for the most secure option, not the option to earn more BTC around the fork speculation. I am not  an adventure investor. I think the #1 is the most safe, right?

Thanks mate!
woxXxow
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June 19, 2017, 06:04:13 PM
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Hey guys,

(first post, I am new on Bitcoin world, I've been Developer for +15 years)

I am building a Bot to create Loans on Poloniex automatically, for three main reasons:

  1. I don't have time to keep watching if a Loan was returned at any random time to my wallet (it happens a lot)
  2. This Bot tend to get the best Loan Ratio on that time. Better than I thought.
  3. I don't need to setup any variable to calibrate it - The bot simply know the best ratio based in a lot of things - it's plug and play - booomm!

Right now, I have 20 loans of 0.01 BTC each, and my average rate per day is 0.1848% - Is that good? Anyone making a better rate than this?

I built this Bot for personal use, but now that I am becoming addictive to it, I want to expend more time onto it , facing it as a side project - I am thinking perhaps someone wants to pay around 5% to 10% of your profit to use it on SaaS model (software as a service). I still have a lot of work to do, but the core of the bot is ready and working! If you got interested, send me a DM for a free trial (only if you have more then 0.2 BTC on Lending, please)

Photos to prove it (print of poloniex lending + print of my Bot):
http://imgur.com/a/pmZsW

5 to 10% is a lot... recheck the pricing. I would be confortable to pay about 10-20$ a month if it performs well, but also if there will be support fot other exchanges. Chhers
bruno222
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June 19, 2017, 06:07:14 PM
 #5

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5 to 10% is a lot... recheck the pricing. I would be confortable to pay about 10-20$ a month if it performs well, but also if there will be support fot other exchanges. Chhers

How much BTC do you have in your wallet? Just so I can have an idea, in %, how much is 10-20$.

Tks
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June 19, 2017, 06:11:38 PM
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I read that yesterday. What is your advise here?

1. Convert the BTC to FIAT?
2. Convert BTC to any other AltCoin?
3. Just leave the BTC in the wallet?

I am looking for the most secure option, not the option to earn more BTC around the fork speculation. I am not  an adventure investor. I think the #1 is the most safe, right?

Thanks mate!


I am also wondering about this issue.
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June 20, 2017, 05:07:16 AM
 #7

you should be more concerned about how long your loan offers are sitting in the lending book

You're right! The Bot does make loans every 0.01 BTC amounts. So the logic for this is:

RULE 1: If I only have 0.01 in my wallet, so the Loan Offer can sits a while in the Lending Book, waiting for the best offer. Here I Loan for 15 days.

RULE 2: If I have more then 0.01, then the Bot tries to get the almost-best-rate. The point here is: Get the Loan as fast as can! Here I loan for only 2 days.

In the end, most of my loans goes to the logic RULE 1, so I am getting the best landing offer in average... Once a while, when Poloniex cancel a lot of Loans at once, then the RULE 2 came in, making Loans not in the best rate, but prioritizing the "Less time siting on the Loan Booking"
The question of if this is the best logic is debatable.

I am not familiar with poloniex's policies regarding minimum interest amounts, however on bitfinex, lenders will receive a minimum of one hour's worth of interest even if the loan is repaid in one second (or if it is repaid after 59 minutes, 59 seconds, or anywhere in between), so if you make one loan that is repaid after 5 minutes, then 2 minutes later make a second loan that is repaid after 5 minutes, then after 12 minutes you have made 2 hours worth of interest. This will give lenders an incentive to price their loans so they will be quickly taken.

On the other hand, if you place your loan offer a little bit deeper in the lending book, your offer might sit there for a few hours, however your loan would have a higher interest rate (potentially), and if your loan remains outstanding for long enough, then the extra interest you receive might make up for the time you are receiving no interest while your offer is sitting in the lending book.

Loans with longer durations tend to be able command higher interest rates because borrowers want to be able to lock in their interest rate for the duration of their trade, so if you use the later strategy, then your interest rate is already starting off higher, although longer term loans tend to get repaid quickly less frequently. There is no right or wrong strategy, and what is more profitable today might be less profitable tomorrow, or next month.


I would also point out to you that it is expected that a number of forks are expected to take place on the Bitcoin blockchain within the next couple of months...
... advised to keep your BTC on poloniex past late July.

I read that yesterday. What is your advise here?

1. Convert the BTC to FIAT?
2. Convert BTC to any other AltCoin?
3. Just leave the BTC in the wallet?

I am looking for the most secure option, not the option to earn more BTC around the fork speculation. I am not  an adventure investor. I think the #1 is the most safe, right?

Thanks mate!

1 - There is an argument that UASF will result in at least temporary lower prices because of uncertainty, although this is hardly a guarantee. If you do this, then you will potentially have the opportunity to buy more BTC at lower prices, but also have the risk of loosing out on price gains on the BTC you hold. This will be the option that will result in your USD buying power to be the closest to guaranteed to be the same. You can lend out your USD on bitfinex and earn some interest on it (you can create a bot for their platform if you wish).

If you lend out BTC via a loan on poloniex, then you will receive a high interest rate that might be greater than the amount you would lose if/when UASF successfully activates. You could end up holding a worthless coin in the event that UASF is successful and poloniex gives you credit for the failed chain, or you could end up with a coin that has the same value it does today because UASF fails, and end up with a lot of interest because of elevated interest rates.

2 - If you are not an "adventure investor" you almost certainly do not want to invest in altcoins. Altcoins are very speculative even by cryptocurrency standards. Many of them have however performed very well against BTC and USD in recent months, although I don't know if this will continue to be the case.

3 - This option is the most likely to result in you maintaining the BTC value of your BTC holdings. This is probably your best bet if you simply want to be 'long' BTC. One issue with this is that deposits/withdrawals will almost certainly be suspended at all/most exchanges around the time UASF (attempts to) activate(s), so you probably wont be able to trade if you do not already have a balance on an exchange. If you are holding your BTC on an exchange when UASF attempts to activate (that will give you immediate credit for your USAF coins), then you might be able to sell your UASF coins if you could see that this chain was about to "fail".

bruno222
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June 20, 2017, 04:06:39 PM
 #8

^ This is an awersome answer, Quickseller. Thank you! Really good overview!

I was studying about bitfinex and:

  - It seems their rate is a bit lower then poloniex (0.14% in average, per day), against 0.19% at Poloniex. I have to run my Bot into it to see if I can get a better rate then 0.14%, it will take a while.

  - bitifinex does Lending in USD - this is awesome (for me, that I am not an "adventure investor"). For me, make Loans in USD is much better then BTC.

Will put some $$ to bitfinex to test. It will take a couple of days to make a conclusion about their Lending Market.

Do you make Loans in bitfinex, Quickseller? Perhaps we can build the logic together.

Cheers.
bruno222
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June 22, 2017, 08:05:44 AM
 #9

You can lend out your USD on bitfinex and earn some interest on it (you can create a bot for their platform if you wish).

Just had time to study how the Lending market works at Bitfinex: it seems terrible, in my option:

1. They pay less then Polo (3.5% per month at Bitfinex against 5.5% per month on Poloniex)

2. They have a FRR (Flash Return Rate) feature, which is an average value from last hour saying the best rate to make Loans - This is terrible because it creates an influenced market by FRR feature. It's not a free market. The sentence "create a loan for the highest price, get a loan for the cheapest price, the market will close the best deals for both sides" is FALSE because of this FRR feature. If you check this image (http://imgur.com/a/HOnmK) - you will see there's a huge gap between rates, showing the influence of FRR feature. Terrible feature.

3. A Bot could not work in a non-free market like this at Bitfinex, where the price is determined by "an average value of last hour" - but in the last hour the FRR was ruling the market, closing the 95% of the deals, then guess what: the rate will be almost the same, for ever, tending to zero.

FRR is a really bad feature.
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June 23, 2017, 05:29:21 AM
 #10

I was studying about bitfinex and:

  - It seems their rate is a bit lower then poloniex (0.14% in average, per day), against 0.19% at Poloniex. I have to run my Bot into it to see if I can get a better rate then 0.14%, it will take a while.
Just had time to study how the Lending market works at Bitfinex: it seems terrible, in my option:

1. They pay less then Polo (3.5% per month at Bitfinex against 5.5% per month on Poloniex)
The interest rate is ultimately determined by the markets on each of the platforms. A variety of factors will cause the interest rate to be different on various platforms, such as the ability to deposit/withdraw the currency in question, the 'markets' perception of the exchange's ability to manage risk in handling liquidations in volatile markets, the 'markets' perception of the chances that an exchange will run away with users' money, the exchange's policy regarding forks, among potentially other factors. The interest rate on poloinex for BTC will be substantially higher than on bitfinex because poloniex's policy is to not give BTC lenders credit for any minority chain in the event of a fork, while it is the policy of bitfinex to give credit for minority chain (that is expected to have economic value), and a fork on the Bitcoin blockchain is expected in the near future. Another factor that may affect interest rates is the currencies that a particular asset can be traded again, for example poloniex allows CLAMs to be traded against BTC on margin, while bitfinex does not, so if many people wanted to buy CLAMs on margin, then the interest rate for BTC may increase verses the interest rate for BTC on bitfinex.

Interest rates will also differ across various assets based on a number of factors. For example, the interest rate on ETH is likely depressed because ETH withdrawals are disabled on most exchanges due to high tx fees on the ETH blockchain. All else being equal, if "the market" believes that a certain asset's value will  decline in the near future, then it's interest rate will be higher, and if "the market" believes that an asset's value will increase in the near future, its interest rate will be lower.

[bitfinex]
2. They have a FRR (Flash Return Rate) feature, which is an average value from last hour saying the best rate to make Loans - This is terrible because it creates an influenced market by FRR feature. It's not a free market. The sentence "create a loan for the highest price, get a loan for the cheapest price, the market will close the best deals for both sides" is FALSE because of this FRR feature. If you check this image (http://imgur.com/a/HOnmK) - you will see there's a huge gap between rates, showing the influence of FRR feature. Terrible feature.
The large gap between the FRR and the "current market" USD rates on bitfinex is an indication that USD interest rates are generally declining. Many lenders will make long term loans (30 days, or somewhat less), so if they make a loan (that has not yet been repaid) today at the current market interest rate, and in 7 days, the market interest rate declines, then that loan will cause the FRR to be higher than it otherwise would be -- when there are many loans in this situation, the FRR will be much higher.

The FRR takes all outstanding fixed rate loans at the time the FRR is calculated (weighted by loan size), and is the average of all of these outstanding loans, regardless of time remaining until each loan expires. If you make a FRR based loan, the interest rate may change, so if interest rates increase over the term of your loan, then you will receive a higher interest rate than you would have if you had made a "current market rate" loan. In my experience, most FRR based loans are repaid within a couple of days, and I tend to not make FRR loans.

Over the very long term, the FRR rate should be the benchmark that you use to determine your lending performance.

3. A Bot could not work in a non-free market like this at Bitfinex, where the price is determined by "an average value of last hour" - but in the last hour the FRR was ruling the market, closing the 95% of the deals, then guess what: the rate will be almost the same, for ever, tending to zero.
You are currently describing a situation in which there are large amounts of USD that (potential) lenders want to lend out, but there is not sufficient demand by borrowers to take out these loans. When there is sufficient demand, the FRR offers will get taken by borrowers, and offers above the FRR will start to get taken, causing the FRR to increase. If you go to https://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/usd you can look at the bottom chart and see how the FRR rate (the green line) has changed over time.

Again, I would note that the FRR is the average interest rate charged on all fixed rates loans calculated every hour, not the average interest rate on loans made in the past hour. If you make a fixed rate loan today, it will affect the FRR until it is repaid.



  - bitifinex does Lending in USD - this is awesome (for me, that I am not an "adventure investor"). For me, make Loans in USD is much better then BTC.
I agree that the ability to lend USD is good, as it gives you the ability to earn interest on your USD while you wait for the time to purchase BTC (which may be a very long time -- at least for me).
Do you make Loans in bitfinex, Quickseller? Perhaps we can build the logic together.
Yes, I have a fairly large amount of USD that I lend out on bitfinex.

I would be happy to give input to help you build logic, but I don't think I would be willing to use your bot -- several people have asked me to use their bots in the past, and I have always declined as I prefer to use my own strategy (that may change) to lend out my money.

bruno222
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June 23, 2017, 02:43:38 PM
 #11

Cool Quickseller, I really appreciate your help.

Quote from: Quickseller
If you are not an "adventure investor" you almost certainly do not want to invest in altcoins

A funny think about this... You're right, I am not an adventurer, but right now I just bought 0.1 BTC of IOTA (you know, the new coin). I liked it! Perhaps I am bipolar, lol.


Quote from: Quickseller
I would be happy to give input to help you build logic, but I don't think I would be willing to use your bot -- several people have asked me to use their bots in the past, and I have always declined as I prefer to use my own strategy (that may change) to lend out my money.

Hehe - It's OK mate. I don't get sad if you don't use my Bot Smiley

The thing here is: I don't see a reason for create a Bot on Bitfinex. With FRR, the people does not need Bot, they can use FRR with a negative FRR DELTA to make the "almost the best shot" of Loans.

But my option remains: This FRR make a huge influence in the market. People use FRR with a delta of "- 2%" to make Loans. That's why the ratio on Bitfinex does not suffer many variations as Poloniex does during the day, that's why the Bot works well on Polo, because it has variation of +10% during the day. Well, but once the FRR exists on Bitfinex, it can be used almost like a Bot (to make "almost the best shot" decisions)

Thanks mate!
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June 25, 2017, 03:05:08 AM
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The thing here is: I don't see a reason for create a Bot on Bitfinex. With FRR, the people does not need Bot, they can use FRR with a negative FRR DELTA to make the "almost the best shot" of Loans.
You are probably referring to creating a loan offer with a "FRR delta" interest rate. When you do this, your loan offer will move up and down with the FRR for as long as your offer is in the lending book, however it will be a fixed rate loan once a borrower takes your offer.

I also don't think that you can auto-renew at a FRR delta without using some kind of bot. The auto-renew feature on bitfinex allows users to either auto-renew at the FRR, or at a fixed specific rate.
But my option remains: This FRR make a huge influence in the market. People use FRR with a delta of "- 2%" to make Loans.
The current FRR is 0.1147% per day, and the current lowest loan offer is 0.1067% per day. If you created a loan offer with a FRR delta of "-0.02%" [per day], then you would be creating an offer of 0.0947% per day, which is 11% under the current low offer, and is most likely lower than you want it to be in order to maximize the interest you receive. I recently (< an hour ago) had a loan offer auto-renew at roughly 0.109% per day. If I were to place a loan offer that has $100k worth of offers ahead of me (~40 BTC), then I would place it at 0.1096% per day, or ~2.7% higher (in terms of interest received before the fees that bitfinex charges) than the current lowest offer.

That's why the ratio on Bitfinex does not suffer many variations as Poloniex does during the day, that's why the Bot works well on Polo, because it has variation of +10% during the day. Well, but once the FRR exists on Bitfinex, it can be used almost like a Bot (to make "almost the best shot" decisions)
Earlier today, the lowest loan offer was in the 0.075% per day range, according to bfxdata.com, the highest USD lending rate was 0.11880% per day over the last 24 hours. After accounting for the 15% commission that bitfinex takes, that works out to being between 1.9125% per 30 days, and 3.0294% per 30 days (both assuming that the loans remain outstanding for an entire 30 day period).

woxXxow
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July 03, 2017, 05:53:39 PM
 #13

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5 to 10% is a lot... recheck the pricing. I would be confortable to pay about 10-20$ a month if it performs well, but also if there will be support fot other exchanges. Chhers

How much BTC do you have in your wallet? Just so I can have an idea, in %, how much is 10-20$.

Tks

3-4btc for lending.
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