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Author Topic: My skepticism of bitcoin  (Read 868 times)
mzforfree
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June 21, 2017, 12:11:14 PM
 #1

First of all if anyone can see from my recent posts in legal and economy my view since the growth has been optimistic, and they still are. The only problem is the the average working joe doesn't have a clue about bitcoin, doesn't have a time with a wife and family to look into it not to mention the people (at least where i'm from, U.S south) with real equity simply dont' need the money.

I've been very passionate about this as of late and when thinking of graduate schools and how to further my education as well as the future I just too much risk involved in BTC as compared to real equity over time such as land, or more important more advanced degrees and titles which no one can strip from you. I've been talking to my dad about this, he is a neurosurgeon who got his M.D at 26 then surgical license at 29. He thinks this growth is bound to be a bubble as a very practical man because doesn't it seem like the old saying "if it's too good to be true it's most likely not"?

Also let's be just realistic for a moment and agree most people here are the overzealous portion of bitcoin users who WANT to see it grow. It is a bitcoin forum. I'm wondering what post-doc level economists are saying about bitcoin.

Plus there are disadvantages and may or may not be worked out such as legal protections (legitimate ones) against scammers and there are no reliable exchanges out there. I've had awful experience with coinbase and LBC.

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June 21, 2017, 12:17:45 PM
 #2

First of all if anyone can see from my recent posts in legal and economy my view since the growth has been optimistic, and they still are. The only problem is the the average working joe doesn't have a clue about bitcoin, doesn't have a time with a wife and family to look into it not to mention the people (at least where i'm from, U.S south) with real equity simply dont' need the money.

I've been very passionate about this as of late and when thinking of graduate schools and how to further my education as well as the future I just too much risk involved in BTC as compared to real equity over time such as land, or more important more advanced degrees and titles which no one can strip from you. I've been talking to my dad about this, he is a neurosurgeon who got his M.D at 26 then surgical license at 29. He thinks this growth is bound to be a bubble as a very practical man because doesn't it seem like the old saying "if it's too good to be true it's most likely not"?

Also let's be just realistic for a moment and agree most people here are the overzealous portion of bitcoin users who WANT to see it grow. It is a bitcoin forum. I'm wondering what post-doc level economists are saying about bitcoin.

There is always a possibility for a big scale bubble burst with bitcoin, but the HUGE difference between bitcoin bubble and other economic bubbles is that even if bitcoin fails it has already introduced us to the technology (cryptocurrency and the blockchain). Personally I believe in Bitcoin as a currency and therefore have been investing in it for quite a long time now.
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June 21, 2017, 12:39:43 PM
 #3

First of all if anyone can see from my recent posts in legal and economy my view since the growth has been optimistic, and they still are. The only problem is the the average working joe doesn't have a clue about bitcoin, doesn't have a time with a wife and family to look into it not to mention the people (at least where i'm from, U.S south) with real equity simply dont' need the money.

I've been very passionate about this as of late and when thinking of graduate schools and how to further my education as well as the future I just too much risk involved in BTC as compared to real equity over time such as land, or more important more advanced degrees and titles which no one can strip from you. I've been talking to my dad about this, he is a neurosurgeon who got his M.D at 26 then surgical license at 29. He thinks this growth is bound to be a bubble as a very practical man because doesn't it seem like the old saying "if it's too good to be true it's most likely not"?

Also let's be just realistic for a moment and agree most people here are the overzealous portion of bitcoin users who WANT to see it grow. It is a bitcoin forum. I'm wondering what post-doc level economists are saying about bitcoin.

There is always a possibility for a big scale bubble burst with bitcoin, but the HUGE difference between bitcoin bubble and other economic bubbles is that even if bitcoin fails it has already introduced us to the technology (cryptocurrency and the blockchain). Personally I believe in Bitcoin as a currency and therefore have been investing in it for quite a long time now.
Yeah, unlike other assets bitcoin has got the highest chance of big scale bubble. This is just because of the early price pumping which fell in a short that didn't sustained long. Based on the same people think even a normal growth to be an bubble and make it crash. Recent growth were termed as price waves and hope the same happens in a short as price increase is quite going good.


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krishnapramod
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June 21, 2017, 01:59:14 PM
 #4

First of all if anyone can see from my recent posts in legal and economy my view since the growth has been optimistic, and they still are. The only problem is the the average working joe doesn't have a clue about bitcoin, doesn't have a time with a wife and family to look into it not to mention the people (at least where i'm from, U.S south) with real equity simply dont' need the money.

I've been very passionate about this as of late and when thinking of graduate schools and how to further my education as well as the future I just too much risk involved in BTC as compared to real equity over time such as land, or more important more advanced degrees and titles which no one can strip from you. I've been talking to my dad about this, he is a neurosurgeon who got his M.D at 26 then surgical license at 29. He thinks this growth is bound to be a bubble as a very practical man because doesn't it seem like the old saying "if it's too good to be true it's most likely not"?

Also let's be just realistic for a moment and agree most people here are the overzealous portion of bitcoin users who WANT to see it grow. It is a bitcoin forum. I'm wondering what post-doc level economists are saying about bitcoin.

Plus there are disadvantages and may or may not be worked out such as legal protections (legitimate ones) against scammers and there are no reliable exchanges out there. I've had awful experience with coinbase and LBC.

1. Looking at the last few months bitcoin price, a 200% growth, practically or statasically it could be said that this growth is bound to be a bubble. Is speculation the sole reason for this or bitcoin is really getting adopted especially after Japan legalised bitcoin?

2. For a moment, let's consider that this tech/internet bubble would burst, but it would definitely rebound because of its working model, a decentralized currency. Bitcoin has done that in the past. Bubble burst or not there would not be a lack of users who prefer to use a decentralized currency.

3. Yeah,  bitcoin lacks laws against scammers especially if it is a small scale operation. Lawsuits against Mt gox and cryptsy prove that laws can be enforced on big scams, but still this area needs a lot of improvement. This is one of the drawbacks of using a decentralized currency.

4. Coinbase is a centralized exchange. Since they do not have buy/sell option for my country, I have not used this feature and just few months ago they had blocked my three-year old account without any valid reason. They have weird rule and regulations, banning, blocking account with funds. I would not recommend it to anyone. Apart from LBC and Coinbase, there are many other exchanges.

Even if Bitcoin is a bubble I do not think it would be bursting anytime soon because more and more countries are planning to legalise it including India and Russia. As users increase bitcoin would get more stable and less volatile and people would stop getting too skeptical about it.

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June 21, 2017, 02:07:58 PM
 #5

Bitcoin has all the hallmarks of a bubble. I think after some time it burst, but it will not be soon. When people say that the government wants to legalize bitcoin, it seems to me that they don't understand that States are not going to accept the bitcoin currency. They want to give him the status of the payment instrument and in addition to taxes it does not give anything more.

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mzforfree
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June 21, 2017, 03:03:40 PM
 #6

Bitcoin has all the hallmarks of a bubble. I think after some time it burst, but it will not be soon. When people say that the government wants to legalize bitcoin, it seems to me that they don't understand that States are not going to accept the bitcoin currency. They want to give him the status of the payment instrument and in addition to taxes it does not give anything more.

From what I've seen, regulation and legal framework on it is very hard and in it's infancy stages. How secure is "secure enough for" sums such as millions invested? People currently have million dollar if not billion dollar balances when they check their bank statements.. How safe is truly keeping that much savings on a sheet of paper or thumb drive?

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June 21, 2017, 03:05:05 PM
 #7

Bitcoin has all the hallmarks of a bubble. I think after some time it burst, but it will not be soon. When people say that the government wants to legalize bitcoin, it seems to me that they don't understand that States are not going to accept the bitcoin currency. They want to give him the status of the payment instrument and in addition to taxes it does not give anything more.

From what I've seen, regulation and legal framework on it is very hard and in it's infancy stages. How secure is "secure enough for" sums such as millions invested? People currently have million dollar if not billion dollar balances when they check their bank statements.. How safe is truly keeping that much savings on a sheet of paper or thumb drive?

Well for once it is way safer than keeping it in any centralized bank. The whole concept of bitcoin and the blockchain is that you get to be your own bank, there is no middleman when it comes to keeping your assets safe.
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June 21, 2017, 03:37:43 PM
 #8

First of all if anyone can see from my recent posts in legal and economy my view since the growth has been optimistic, and they still are. The only problem is the the average working joe doesn't have a clue about bitcoin, doesn't have a time with a wife and family to look into it not to mention the people (at least where i'm from, U.S south) with real equity simply dont' need the money.

I don't agree with this sentiment. It's not too hard for the average working Joe (particularly in the US) to open an account with Coinbase, buy some Bitcoin or Litecoin and let it ride, unless of course they live in Hawaii or Wyoming. I also don't think that people "don't need the money". Some people might not chase money as much as others, but everyone needs more money, just about everyone.

The problem is a lack of basic financial and technology education to give that average Joe the propensity to be curious about something as unique as Bitcoin and to understand why people believe it will be so revolutionary. The average Joe doesn't understand the underlying principles of investments or finance or how technology can and should evolve beyond what we know today. These same average Joe's probably didn't ever believe they'd need a computer in their home, would have use for email, or would ever use the internet for their daily tasks (not to mention entertainment).

As for everyone needing money, this is almost guaranteed by the wide availability of credit and the lack of personal finance education in the primary education system. There's no stage in a child's early education where EVERY CHILD learns (1) to survive in this world you need to make money, and (2) you should seek multiple forms of income to protect yourself from the risk of having any one source of income taken away.

Your comments about your father are the same as I've had with mine. Any response is "illegal activity" or "bubble". When the truth is the US Dollar is the leader in currency used for illegal activity and has been in a bubble for a long time (it's increase in spending power, the consequence of a "bubble", has been tempered by the production of more money supply). Further, if this were a bubble we'd see really prolonged selling following a drop in price, not a quick rebound that nearly gets us back to or past the previous high mark.



Also let's be just realistic for a moment and agree most people here are the overzealous portion of bitcoin users who WANT to see it grow. It is a bitcoin forum. I'm wondering what post-doc level economists are saying about bitcoin.

I'd love to hear the opinions of career economists. The challenge remains that if professionals talk seriously about Bitcoin they risk losing credibility among their peers that can't see the value in it, that think it's a techy fad like online shopping once was.

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June 21, 2017, 04:14:47 PM
 #9

I understand your concern on Bitcoin and this in fact expressed by many other Bitcoin holders not just here in this forum. Surely, had it been situation in the normal offline world, we can really conclude that Bitcoin is just like another bubble that would day burst.

However, Bitcoin is not really a "normal" thing and comparing it to another thing may not be fair and square. But don't get me wrong because Bitcoin does not have the power to erase human nature. We are still all humans here with all the strengths and weaknesses.

As we speak, we just don't know if suddenly Bitcoin would put a brake and can start a climb down from its number one spot it enjoyed for years. Anything is possible really as the blockchain technology is still evolving and adapting to the real world.

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June 21, 2017, 04:20:54 PM
 #10

Silently or not, yes, most of us will be ready to admit that your outlook on Bitcoin cannot rely on the forum content - yes we are all crypto users with a lot of zeal as you say. But you will find (sorry you have to dig) many threads from past academic research posting questionnaires. So there is definitely a lot of study coming into it. Sadly, results seldom shared back here.

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June 21, 2017, 04:26:09 PM
 #11

Personally, I'm skeptical of bitcoin's current price but I'm very long on the technology. I don't agree with the price of bitcoin (or most any crypto right now) because it's price fluctuation doesn't seem to be driven by adoption. To me this implies speculative value. At the same time though, it's hard to ignore the major investments that tech, logistics, and financial companies are making in the space.

TL;DR Focus on the technology, not the price today
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June 25, 2017, 04:18:13 PM
 #12

Personally, I'm skeptical of bitcoin's current price but I'm very long on the technology. I don't agree with the price of bitcoin (or most any crypto right now) because it's price fluctuation doesn't seem to be driven by adoption. To me this implies speculative value. At the same time though, it's hard to ignore the major investments that tech, logistics, and financial companies are making in the space.

TL;DR Focus on the technology, not the price today

Same i'm trying to learn as well

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June 25, 2017, 04:26:07 PM
 #13

I think bitcoin having lots of bubbled prices won't be avoided.  Bitcoin market is speculative after all.  Meaning prices does not actually depend on the real life usage, instead it depends on how people view bitcoin will be in the next few years.  Just as what you saide, we, in Bitcoin forum ( majority if not all) thinks that bitcoin will eventually cost $10,000 in due time.  With that speculation people are saving BTC for a long time, while bitcoin are getting more popular, triggering the effect of supply and demand.  Having the demand more than the supply due to those people who hodl.

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PancherBitCoin
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June 25, 2017, 04:56:49 PM
 #14

To be honest, the topic is rather unordinary. I've heard a lot about how negatively speak about Bitcoin, but at the same time, many users remain adherents of this crypto currency. We understand that everyone earns with the help of Bitcoin And at the same time is skeptical about his future. Although there are some concerns not today, but tomorrow.

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mzforfree
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June 25, 2017, 04:59:08 PM
 #15

Bitcoin has all the hallmarks of a bubble. I think after some time it burst, but it will not be soon. When people say that the government wants to legalize bitcoin, it seems to me that they don't understand that States are not going to accept the bitcoin currency. They want to give him the status of the payment instrument and in addition to taxes it does not give anything more.

From what I've seen, regulation and legal framework on it is very hard and in it's infancy stages. How secure is "secure enough for" sums such as millions invested? People currently have million dollar if not billion dollar balances when they check their bank statements.. How safe is truly keeping that much savings on a sheet of paper or thumb drive?

Well for once it is way safer than keeping it in any centralized bank. The whole concept of bitcoin and the blockchain is that you get to be your own bank, there is no middleman when it comes to keeping your assets safe.

centralized banks for all their faults are regulated, federally insured and are able to be re-financed and bailed out with legislation. I've lost at least a few hundred if not a thousand if BTC alone just messing around with different wallets, do you think people really trust themselves with their own money? I personally like looking at my bank statement every day and knowing even if I do get hacked it won't affect the balance.And while paper wallets are fairly reliable in securing a wallet you would need a lock-box inside a centralized bank itself to truly secure it (or some 3rd party security measure).

freeyourmind
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June 25, 2017, 08:02:21 PM
 #16

First of all if anyone can see from my recent posts in legal and economy my view since the growth has been optimistic, and they still are. The only problem is the the average working joe doesn't have a clue about bitcoin, doesn't have a time with a wife and family to look into it not to mention the people (at least where i'm from, U.S south) with real equity simply dont' need the money.

I've been very passionate about this as of late and when thinking of graduate schools and how to further my education as well as the future I just too much risk involved in BTC as compared to real equity over time such as land, or more important more advanced degrees and titles which no one can strip from you. I've been talking to my dad about this, he is a neurosurgeon who got his M.D at 26 then surgical license at 29. He thinks this growth is bound to be a bubble as a very practical man because doesn't it seem like the old saying "if it's too good to be true it's most likely not"?

Also let's be just realistic for a moment and agree most people here are the overzealous portion of bitcoin users who WANT to see it grow. It is a bitcoin forum. I'm wondering what post-doc level economists are saying about bitcoin.

Plus there are disadvantages and may or may not be worked out such as legal protections (legitimate ones) against scammers and there are no reliable exchanges out there. I've had awful experience with coinbase and LBC.

I share your sentiment to some degree.  Land and real estate have tangible uses with much less elastic demand (people will always need a place to live, in any situation).  There is speculation with Bitcoin as well, but saying it's a bubble at $43 billion USD...it's not really that much.  Remember the states was printing $80 billion per month during QE3 to put it into perspective.

50 years ago, no one could imagine that you'd have a small piece of electronics in your hand that can access almost limitless information and contact people around the world, for no significant cost.  Now smartphones are not even a "luxury good".  In 50 years from now, we'll be doing business likely in ways that we aren't imagining right now.  Bitcoin has also been a "bubble" since probably $1000...so I don't think that mentality will ever fade.

Why trust anything that economists say?  Other than a few Austrian economists, they were flabbergasted with the 2008 financial crisis.  If it's your prime occupation, you shouldn't have been blindsided by a financial crash and housing crash of that magnitude.  They're like the weather forecast, but who needs someones advice that's right "sometimes"? lol
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June 26, 2017, 12:33:21 AM
 #17

Yes. I have written a recent topic regarding the cause of this bubble: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1952038.msg19388908#msg19388908

I have received a lot of optimistic responses. Most of them run along the lines that Bitcoin will jump back. I don't see how anything, even Bitcoin can do that. I think the bubble is going to burst around the time of August 1, when the Bitcoin hard fork occurs. I believe we are going to see a considerable price drop and Bitcoin, if it does, will take a long time to recover from it, as many people are not educated about the effects of the hard-fork. I have already converted my Bitcoin to Ethereum and I am continuing to see this trend with my close friends.
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June 26, 2017, 02:18:58 AM
 #18

People who say Bitcoin is a bubble do not understand Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is at the very early stages of a huge growth period that will last for decades.

That was as true in 2012 as it is today.
Seansky
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June 26, 2017, 06:56:16 AM
 #19

First of all if anyone can see from my recent posts in legal and economy my view since the growth has been optimistic, and they still are. The only problem is the the average working joe doesn't have a clue about bitcoin, doesn't have a time with a wife and family to look into it not to mention the people (at least where i'm from, U.S south) with real equity simply dont' need the money.

I've been very passionate about this as of late and when thinking of graduate schools and how to further my education as well as the future I just too much risk involved in BTC as compared to real equity over time such as land, or more important more advanced degrees and titles which no one can strip from you. I've been talking to my dad about this, he is a neurosurgeon who got his M.D at 26 then surgical license at 29. He thinks this growth is bound to be a bubble as a very practical man because doesn't it seem like the old saying "if it's too good to be true it's most likely not"?

Also let's be just realistic for a moment and agree most people here are the overzealous portion of bitcoin users who WANT to see it grow. It is a bitcoin forum. I'm wondering what post-doc level economists are saying about bitcoin.

Plus there are disadvantages and may or may not be worked out such as legal protections (legitimate ones) against scammers and there are no reliable exchanges out there. I've had awful experience with coinbase and LBC.
You are right although even if btc is in a bubble right now like what your dad told you, it will rise up again sooner or later. Also, don't compare bitcoin with real equity because those have real world uses and therefore is not that volatile as bitcoin while bitcoin seems like always in the bubble but in the end it might prove you wrong. I agree with you though on the part about legal protections because there are no such laws that will get those scammers straight into jail and also bitcoin gives those scammers some anonymity. Even if you have had bitcoin, there are still many reliable exchanges out there not just coinbase and LBC so if I were you I would not conclude that there are no reliable exchanges unless you tried many.
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June 26, 2017, 07:20:27 AM
 #20

I do understand about your problem and your parents seems like a reasonable man, most of the older man prefer their investment that already proven like gold or land, and to be honest it's more secure, bitcoin still in a very early there still so many problems and controversial, we still don't know how long it can survive but for a short term bitcoin provides a very good source of profit, it grows faster than anything in this world, so it's all about how you used the opportunity for yourself,the choice will become clearer as the time goes

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