Any reason why this SPIKE is different than last year's SPIKE in same months?

[jakeeck]

I was just doing a little analyzing with my friend in Discord...

Does anyone have any real logic about why we won't see a repeat of this:

This is bitcoin for April/May/June - The top one is 2016, bottom one today
https://i.imgur.com/9TCCJrg.png

It seems like Consesus hypes up cryptos, media picks it up, new money comes in, then the first to enter bag holders dump it on us when they realize it's not going any higher.

We already realized all the new money, hype has died down considerably to anyone paying attention. The Ethereum hype was largely driving this market, bringing in new people.

Look at how much the volume and price dies after those big spikes. There's never NOT a 40-50% correction after a spike such as these.. why would this time be any different?

It seems like people are just not seeing clearly because we've been smothered with sweet, sweet gains lately. It obviously can't continue forever, but everyone wants to remain incredibly optimistic.

Can anyone offer real reasons why we're not in for a 40-50% correction soon?

Would appreciate legitimate discussion instead of "god damn weak hands" "HODL" etc etc

You guys do realize the ones who got in early are going to cash out their profits at some point, right?

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[pooya87]

that spike is the block halving hype not the Cyprus. the Cyprus and one other country had some small hype that nothing happened to the price.

also ETH hype did not bring that much if any money in and even if it did, it brought them in ETH itself and that has nothing to do with bitcoin there are big ETH/USD markets that people could use they never needed to buy bitcoin to get in that bubble.

as for your reason for 40-50% correction there has already been a 30% correction back in early days of this month and another correction recently. and a 50% correction won't happen out of nowhere just as it didn't happen in your first picture. the dip by that time was about -33%

p.s. HODL because you should have sold on top when price was somewhere between $2700 and $2980 not now that it has dropped to the bottom!

p.p.s the dip in your first picture was because of bitfinex hack otherwise it would have never happened.

p3.s.

[jakeeck]

^^Good reply... thanks!

[cafucafucafu]

Kudos to pooya for the analysis.

We've already went from $2950 to $2300. So that's probably your "40-50% adjustment" right there.

Media hype, speculation, etc. are all integral parts of why the price rose, of course. And you have rightfully pointed that out. However, you have to consider that INdia, Australia, AND Japan all legalized bitcoin in the short few months. So is it all hype? Probably not.

Though it is justifiable to say that bitcoin will adjust further, if a chain split occurs. That's probably the worst thing that could happen though, any of the other scenarios will result in either small declines to no less than $2000 each coin, or even a further rise in BTC price.

[JimboToronto]

You guys do realize the ones who got in early are going to cash out their profits at some point, right?

Not necessarily, unless you mean spending their coins.

Some people prefer to keep their profits in Bitcoin.

[electronicash]

this spike is different because it looks like its been orchestrated by a large group of whales who just want to pump and dump for profit. just because there is a definite news that something will happen this august 1, they suddenly make the market crazier.