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Author Topic: WALL Observer : BTC/USD price tracking and discussion (Phoenix Revision).  (Read 9717 times)
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Torque
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July 01, 2017, 02:00:57 PM
Last edit: July 01, 2017, 02:13:04 PM by Torque
 #121

SegWit activated in July-August safely = moon.

Or the other scenario: Segwit activated = a brief bull trap rally, followed by a crash ("buy the rumor sell the news") or simply a continuation of a downtrend already in progress.

Sorry to sound bearish, but if you are going to be a completionist you have to at least consider this as a possible outcome as well. Even bulls should be prepared for any scenario.
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July 01, 2017, 02:15:45 PM
 #122

SegWit activated in July-August safely = moon.

Or the other scenario: Segwit activated = a brief bull trap rally, followed by a crash ("buy the rumor sell the news") or simply a continuation of a downtrend already in progress.

Sorry to sound bearish, but if you are going to be a completionist you have to at least consider this as a possible outcome as well.
OK, fair enough.  That's a pretty likely outcome actually.  Litecoin, for example, settled for a while after SegWit activation before it got caught in the hype of the crypto bull market.  Bitcoin could do the same - people buy in when they expect SegWit to happen or when it's locked in, then they don't know what to do after that until other cryptos lead the way (probably bearish).

I'm not worried anyway.  I bought most of my coins way earlier than this, so I'm pretty safe with my stop loss set down low.

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July 01, 2017, 03:55:16 PM
 #123

I'll definitely be sitting on my coins till August 1, even if there are rocky seas ahead. The outcome may not be what we expect but at the very least I see us breaking $3000 after that. What happens before is not going to have a huge impact unless some exchange gets hacked again or a major bug.
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July 01, 2017, 04:05:49 PM
 #124

Good morning Bitcoinland. Same old, same old.

Still bouncing along sideways, right where we were 5 days ago... currently $2470USD (Bitcoinaverage).

Coiling for a big move, or just the summer (northern hemisphere) doldrums?
_____

It seems that new wall observer threads are popping up like mushrooms. Until another one gives me a compelling reason to move, I'll stick with this one, the first and most reasonably structured.
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July 01, 2017, 07:09:14 PM
 #125

Good morning Bitcoinland. Same old, same old.

Still bouncing along sideways, right where we were 5 days ago... currently $2470USD (Bitcoinaverage).

Coiling for a big move, or just the summer (northern hemisphere) doldrums?
_____

It seems that new wall observer threads are popping up like mushrooms. Until another one gives me a compelling reason to move, I'll stick with this one, the first and most reasonably structured.

We can have the old one back if anyone trusted (like you) would put themself forward as a mod  Wink

Theymos is asking for nominees.  So far seems there's been only one expression of interest. 

我想要火箭和火车
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July 01, 2017, 07:13:26 PM
 #126

Watching the price action and low volume and velocity lately is really weird. It's like someone just set the trading bots on 'auto pilot' and walked away from the keyboard for a few weeks.

Such apathy.

Of course I've seen this behavior before. Remember it well. It was the summer of 2014...

Some traders have probably set low bids, and are waiting for the price to crash. Others have probably already bought and are waiting for a rally. Nothing's likely to happen until one group or the other blinks.


I have a real difficult time appreciating how both of you seem to be of the conclusion that here is either apathy or some kind of low BTC trade volume.  I wonder from where either of you are getting such information in order to arrive at such conclusions.

Sure, we have a little bit of trickling down of prices, but this trickling down is not coming without a fight.  The ongoing trade volume is quite stupendous, especially if we consider it in terms of the weekly and also in terms of the USD value in comparison to earlier times, including 2014 or 2015... my gosh, we seem to have way more trade volume.. at least 5x.

yeah, we might have a periodic phases of 12 or 24 hour period of lesser trade volume, but looking at the weekly, the trade volume adds up... and I don't think that you can really come to reasonable conclusions if you analyze trade volume periods of time that are less than a week, even though you can look at multiple candles that are much shorter, going down to 2 hour candles, as long you are looking at them over a longer period.. such as a week.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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July 01, 2017, 07:30:50 PM
Last edit: July 01, 2017, 07:57:15 PM by Meuh6879
 #127

The good news is the MEMpool : almost empty (1,5 blocks of delayed transactions = ~3500 transactions).








The bad news : Bear trap ahead (China Exchange flat line).



https://coinmarketcap.com/ is already RED ...
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July 01, 2017, 07:53:00 PM
 #128

Boost for monday : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1996715.0

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July 01, 2017, 09:03:41 PM
 #129

The good news is the MEMpool : almost empty (1,5 blocks of delayed transactions = ~3500 transactions).








The bad news : Bear trap ahead (China Exchange flat line).



https://coinmarketcap.com/ is already RED ...
That's because Jihan and Co. have reached their intended goal already and there's no need to waste more money spamming the mempool. Sad but that's how it works now, I hope we can break the iron fist of the mining companies one day but it's unlikely given the way things have been going recently..
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July 01, 2017, 09:13:39 PM
Last edit: July 01, 2017, 09:45:58 PM by Torque
 #130

I have a real difficult time appreciating how both of you seem to be of the conclusion that here is either apathy or some kind of low BTC trade volume.  I wonder from where either of you are getting such information in order to arrive at such conclusions.

Sure, we have a little bit of trickling down of prices, but this trickling down is not coming without a fight.  The ongoing trade volume is quite stupendous, especially if we consider it in terms of the weekly and also in terms of the USD value in comparison to earlier times, including 2014 or 2015... my gosh, we seem to have way more trade volume.. at least 5x.

yeah, we might have a periodic phases of 12 or 24 hour period of lesser trade volume, but looking at the weekly, the trade volume adds up... and I don't think that you can really come to reasonable conclusions if you analyze trade volume periods of time that are less than a week, even though you can look at multiple candles that are much shorter, going down to 2 hour candles, as long you are looking at them over a longer period.. such as a week.

So I guess going from >$2M in 24 hr volume on June 6th, 10th and 12th when prices were higher to <$1M now while prices are lower is not apathy to you? The total market cap has dropped from a peak of $48B to now $39B.

Also 24hr trading volume alone doesn't tell the whole story. It's a big difference in volume that is mostly buying (bringing price higher) vs. volume that is mostly selling off (bringing price lower). Like the massive selloff dumps on the 14th/15th.

Whales selling into their own walls is not real investor buying imo.

The good news that we haven't made a lower low yet since this bull run started. Until that happens, we won't really be able to grasp what the immediate future holds.

I'm hopeful that the bull run will keep going from here.
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July 01, 2017, 10:29:53 PM
 #131

I imagine it won't be long before we get another one of those buyable dips the kids are always talking about at parties. With those fidget spinners and whatnot.

Forgive my petulance and oft-times, I fear, ill-founded criticisms, and forgive me that I have, by this time, made your eyes and head ache with my long letter. But I cannot forgo hastily the pleasure and pride of thus conversing with you.
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July 01, 2017, 10:52:42 PM
 #132

I have a real difficult time appreciating how both of you seem to be of the conclusion that here is either apathy or some kind of low BTC trade volume.  I wonder from where either of you are getting such information in order to arrive at such conclusions.

Sure, we have a little bit of trickling down of prices, but this trickling down is not coming without a fight.  The ongoing trade volume is quite stupendous, especially if we consider it in terms of the weekly and also in terms of the USD value in comparison to earlier times, including 2014 or 2015... my gosh, we seem to have way more trade volume.. at least 5x.

yeah, we might have a periodic phases of 12 or 24 hour period of lesser trade volume, but looking at the weekly, the trade volume adds up... and I don't think that you can really come to reasonable conclusions if you analyze trade volume periods of time that are less than a week, even though you can look at multiple candles that are much shorter, going down to 2 hour candles, as long you are looking at them over a longer period.. such as a week.

So I guess going from >$2M in 24 hr volume on June 6th, 10th and 12th when prices were higher to <$1M now while prices are lower is not apathy to you? The total market cap has dropped from a peak of $48B to now $39B.


Aren't you moving the goal posts a little bit?

Initially, you were comparing to summer 2014, and now you are saying that we are shrinking from a few select days earlier in the month.. of course there is going to be variance, but overall we have a lot of ongoing trading pressure - and yeah of course the price could continue to trickle down.. and there could be a fairly long trickling correction all the way back down to $1200.  We were only at $1200 a few months ago.. but even to return to those price levels, it seems pretty likely that we are going to continue to have a decent battle that does not really seem to rise to the level of "apathy" as you are asserting.




Also 24hr trading volume alone doesn't tell the whole story. It's a big difference in volume that is mostly buying (bringing price higher) vs. volume that is mostly selling off (bringing price lower). Like the massive selloff dumps on the 14th/15th.

Sure, you are saying something similar to me, here.  We have to look at the whole thing in context and to look over several days and several weeks, which seems to be partly what you are doing, too.


Whales selling into their own walls is not real investor buying imo.



That's nonsense.  You like to make these wild claims of manipulation and act as if there is not a very large market.

Yeah right.

Sure, when we look at exchanges, we are going to have a certain level of professionalism that is attempting to push prices in one direction or another, but they are also somewhat restricted, too in terms of how many coins that they can get and how many they are willing to trade or lose and price pressures that come through other non-exchange sources too.



The good news that we haven't made a lower low yet since this bull run started. Until that happens, we won't really be able to grasp what the immediate future holds.

I'm hopeful that the bull run will keep going from here.

Well, yeah.  It is far from over yet.  We still seem to be in a kind of $2350 to $2700 trading range, and we gotta break downwards several times before it really becomes some kind of problem that even comes close to concluding that there is some kind of end to the ongoing bull run..

And, I will also concede that we could be in the early stages of moving from bull run to bear market or even flat, but we got a long way to go in terms of time and also in terms of price movement to reasonably make such conclusions.. for example below $1200, and even then, may not be a bear market, merely a meaningful correction.

Put BTC here: 35EVP8EePt8dyvKHaB7bXaRmKLm22YgRCA

How much alt coin diversification is necessary? if you are investing in Bitcoin, then perhaps 0%?
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July 02, 2017, 01:58:20 AM
 #133

How possible is to do a change of POW, something ASIC resistant, so people can start mining again, the net decentralizes and we get rid of the Jihan mafia?

I don´t understand how its not been discused yet.
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July 02, 2017, 03:22:34 AM
Last edit: July 02, 2017, 03:43:04 AM by freedomno1
 #134

So we killed the original thread, kind of sad leaving one of the old monster threads around is classic in a sense.
The impressions alone are basically enough to justify its usage casual and old alike.
It really should just be left around but vote in the poll
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1993570.0
Oh well leaving a placeholder in the new version for now and watching the coin range stabilize around 2400-2500 for now.
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July 02, 2017, 04:15:38 AM
 #135

How possible is to do a change of POW, something ASIC resistant, so people can start mining again, the net decentralizes and we get rid of the Jihan mafia?

I don´t understand how its not been discused yet.

Oh, it's possible... but for all intents and purposes, when pigs fly ... seriously, so many alt coins already doing everything else but SHA256. Any coin that remains POW will eventually have an ASIC, unless it is part of the coins protocol to continuously change the algo, or up the requirements (memory, bandwidth, registers, cpu thingies ...)

As your term suggests "ASIC resistant" will not prevent ASICs from ever appearing.

Some coins have a "potential" change of POW to POS that's why no ASIC is being developed for it, because the owner or developer of that coin can change the code at will, or fork it because he wants to.

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July 02, 2017, 10:17:03 AM
 #136

2017-07-02 : Rule N°3 warning.
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July 02, 2017, 11:07:30 AM
 #137

I've always thought Google search trends are an underrated way to measure hype.

Bitcoin search trends right now are showing the apathy that some of you are talking about:  https://trends.google.co.uk/trends/explore?q=%2Fm%2F05p0rrx.

However, the cryptocurrency trends and blockchain trends have not been acting in the same way.  This could imply that users this time around have matured about the technology, and potentially that the speculation is less feverish (a bullish sign in the long-term).

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July 02, 2017, 01:59:49 PM
 #138

How possible is to do a change of POW, something ASIC resistant, so people can start mining again, the net decentralizes and we get rid of the Jihan mafia?

I don´t understand how its not been discused yet.
Oh, it is. There are Altcoins and almost each of them moves the mining process away from Bitcoin ASICs, or developed a replacement mechanism for distribution. ASICs seems to be able to catch up a little on scrypt or x11/13/15 family, but not enough.

Mining overcentralisation exposes the biggest investment risk upon the biggest monopolists. If people decide to vote with their feet, they will loose everything.
And almost all of this BTC economy sells stuff to customers *outside* of china, namely US or EU states, and got absolutely not that much of an addiction pointing at Peking.
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July 02, 2017, 04:08:27 PM
 #139

Sell the news before Monday ... ?

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July 02, 2017, 05:14:29 PM
 #140

Looking at Stamp. Would love to see bitcoin blast right on up through the $2520 level right here, and then smash through $2550, all in one go.

But alas it appears we're gonna just stay in this triangle until resolution.  Without building buying pressure it will likely resolve downward.
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