The "Satoshi Risk"

[Andre_Goldman]

We cannot know the real amount of bitcoins Satoshi himself holds. Of course he is a very smart, a genius person so he keeps his fortune distributed in many different bitcoin addresses. This way he ensures privacy, he knows very well that if he keep all his bitcoins in a single address, then he can say goodbye to his privacy. At first he did mine a lot of blocks of 50 BTC each which has still coins on them, but soon after a few months Hal Finney joined and he did mine a lot of blocks too. I think it is complicated to check how many coins Satoshi hold. I think we should leave him alone as long as he has decided to stay hidden.

I don't see any "Satoshi Risk". It would only be beneficial to bitcoin if he comes back to the scene(personal opinion).

Good times ...  Finney was (is?) funny guy ..

After a few days, bitcoin was running pretty stably, so I left it running. Those were the days when difficulty was 1, and you could find blocks with a CPU, not even a GPU. I mined several blocks over the next days. But I turned it off because it made my computer run hot, and the fan noise bothered me.

lol 

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[investinator]

If Satoshi were still alive and cared about bitcoin he would have revealed himself already and said whether he even still has his private keys or what he was planning to do with it. It might cause some initial turbulence but unless he said he was going to dump all of it then such turbulence would be short lived.

Obviously he would have a cult following and people would give a positively biased view to anything he said or suggested but the community is mature enough they could take his advice based on their technical merits rather than anything else.

[Andre_Goldman]

just to put things in perspective ..

Satoshi holds 6.4% of all bitcoin in currently in circulation

source: http://uk.businessinsider.com/satoshi-nakamoto-owns-one-million-bitcoin-700-price-2016-6

even less than Bill Gates Microsoft shares exit plan.

Gates, who owned 49 percent of Microsoft before it went public in 1986, sells about 80 million Microsoft shares a year under a pre-set plan, which if continued would leave him with no financial stake in the company by 2018.... giving up his day-to-day work there in 2008 to focus on the $38 billion Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation...Gates owns about 4.5 percent of the $277 billion company and is its largest individual shareholder.

sources:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-microsoft-gates-idUSBREA410YS20140503
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/01/microsoft-gates-resignation-investors_n_4026506.html

so .. I guess if Satoshi adopt a similar exit plan .. bitcoin will survive  ...

ps->
regards Finney and the "fan noise" ... some how reminds me the book "Datacenter as Computer" ... 

A datacenter is a building (or buildings) designed to house computing and storage infrastructure
in a variety of networked formats. Its main function is to deliver the utilities needed by housed
equipment and personnel: power, cooling, shelter, and security. By classic defnitions, there is little
“work” produced by the datacenter. Other than some departing photons, the remainder of the
energy is exclusively converted into heat. Te delivery of input energy and subsequent removal of
waste heat are at the heart of the datacenter’s design and drive the vast majority of costs. Tese costs
are proportional to the amount of power delivered and typically run in the $10–20/Watt range (see
Section 6.1) but can vary considerably depending on size, location, and design.

[x2666]

Yes, people mistakenly believe that because Satoshi has not yet moved his premine that he will never move his premine. There is no guarantee! It may be easy for you as an individual to move into BTC and disregard this risk but for a major financial institution or government to place billions into Bitcoin they must consider this reality.

Satoshi likely has much more than his initial premine as well. I suspect that Satoshi is still lurking the Bitcoin scene and has likely made off like a bandit on every one of these major altcoins.

I think Satoshi is a realist, I don't think he would pass up the opportunity to line his pockets because that inevitably translates to an increased capacity to enact change whatever his agenda may be.

People like to make an idol out of Satoshi but he is a human or group of humans. Satoshi is a rationally self interested actor. Regardless of what people want to think: his ideology is not necessarily the ideology of the average Bitcoin user.

[shamzblueworld]

Satoshi's 1 million Bitcoins (worth $2.5b)
Now, we all know Satoshi has this huge stash of Bitcoins

I did not.
Is it a fact? Who told this? Where is it stated?
And if suppose its true, I don't think that will be the only million bitcoin stash present currently, I bet there will be others with similar(may be a little smaller in quantity) stash of bitcoin just up their sleeve, and not circulating in the blockchain.

[pooya87]

what you see as risk i only see as an opportunity, a golden one actually.
if Satoshi some day decided to do what you said and sell those coins that just means a whale is getting rid of his stash while contributing to a better distribution of bitcoin.
i have said it multiple times before, whenever a whale dumps it is an opportunity for the rest of us to force that whale to decrease his stash or be forced to buy at higher price instead and pay a larger sum of money. the same will be true in case of Satoshi.

[Happydd]

Satoshi's 1 million Bitcoins (worth $2.5b)
Now, we all know Satoshi has this huge stash of Bitcoins

I did not.
Is it a fact? Who told this? Where is it stated?
And if suppose its true, I don't think that will be the only million bitcoin stash present currently, I bet there will be others with similar(may be a little smaller in quantity) stash of bitcoin just up their sleeve, and not circulating in the blockchain.

I think it is not raised anywhere, it is only predicted. All of us are always thinking and predicting what is going to happen, through a series of events, they always have a bitcoin instability, and I hope it can pass soon....

[x2666]

what you see as risk i only see as an opportunity, a golden one actually.
if Satoshi some day decided to do what you said and sell those coins that just means a whale is getting rid of his stash while contributing to a better distribution of bitcoin.
i have said it multiple times before, whenever a whale dumps it is an opportunity for the rest of us to force that whale to decrease his stash or be forced to buy at higher price instead and pay a larger sum of money. the same will be true in case of Satoshi.

That is an opinion. I understand where you are coming from but the Satoshi stash is a technicality. Technically, no matter which way you look at it, he has the ability to crash the market in a way which it will not recover from, at least for a long time. Although I do not believe Satoshi will try to destroy his own creation it is entirely possible that he may. This is the unavoidable truth.

[slackcryptoz]

As the op thinking if he's holding a big sum of bitcoin and suddenly release to the market there will be a sudden price increase and nothing big happens. Now he holds a big stash of some other big whales holding a big sum of bitcoin making price manipulation in between.

[SplinterZalinsk]

I'm not Dorian Nakamoto!

[Welshmaiden]

Personally I doubt very much that satoshi would crash the market by cashing out. He is probably already a very rich man. A genius like satoshi would not have created such an amazing innovation and hand it over to mankind to set them free. Just so that he can pull the plug. This is his contribution to a better world. He more than likely is quite satisfied already with his accomplishments. He has also probably already taken his share of riches at some point. Some things are worth much much more than money. He will know exactly how much responsibility he has.

[BitcoinSupremo]

We cannot know the real amount of bitcoins Satoshi himself holds. Of course he is a very smart, a genius person so he keeps his fortune distributed in many different bitcoin addresses. This way he ensures privacy, he knows very well that if he keep all his bitcoins in a single address, then he can say goodbye to his privacy. At first he did mine a lot of blocks of 50 BTC each which has still coins on them, but soon after a few months Hal Finney joined and he did mine a lot of blocks too. I think it is complicated to check how many coins Satoshi hold. I think we should leave him alone as long as he has decided to stay hidden.

I don't see any "Satoshi Risk". It would only be beneficial to bitcoin if he comes back to the scene(personal opinion).

Good times ...  Finney was (is?) funny guy ..

After a few days, bitcoin was running pretty stably, so I left it running. Those were the days when difficulty was 1, and you could find blocks with a CPU, not even a GPU. I mined several blocks over the next days. But I turned it off because it made my computer run hot, and the fan noise bothered me.

lol 

Unfortunately Finney died of a Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis which he announced on 2009 in his essay blog and died on 28 August 2014 (sad times for bitcoin enthusiasts). Good thing is he left guide and skills regarding his bitcoins to his daughter, or at least so he claimed.

[hatshepsut93]

Well, bitcoin addresses are public, so it should b easy to trace how much of Bitcoins were not moved since 2009-2010. Also, Satoshi might be scared to move his Bitcoins because it will deanonymize, since many people strongly suspect that those early addresses belong to him. And even if Satoshi does dump his coins, it will crash Bitcoin only for short term, it will recover and keep growing later for sure.

[shayshaylaboogie]

Personally I doubt very much that satoshi would crash the market by cashing out. He is probably already a very rich man. A genius like satoshi would not have created such an amazing innovation and hand it over to mankind to set them free. Just so that he can pull the plug. This is his contribution to a better world. He more than likely is quite satisfied already with his accomplishments. He has also probably already taken his share of riches at some point. Some things are worth much much more than money. He will know exactly how much responsibility he has.

This. If those coins move, even to another wallet, the market will crash in anticipation if them going to an exchange and hitting an order book. So basically, I think that he can never touch those coins again without creating a panic. If that's obvious to me, I'm pretty sure it has occurred to him as the creator of bitcoin.

Moving those coins would be a killswitch for bitcoin. I don't think the creator would want to do that to his creation, especially if it started to take off as it is now.

[squatz1]

The thing with this is that I feel if Satoshi was still around / still had access to his coins, he probably would've sold by now and done it slowly. As sad as it sounds to practically be saying stuff like that about our GOD, you have to think about it from his perspective. The guy has pretty much been out of Bitcoin for years at this point, and what would be better for him personally, to just leave all of his bitcoins sitting in his wallet or just going ahead and selling off his portion of the coins and living a nice life because of it.

There is a risk if someone was to ever find saotshis coins and sell them, but that risk is going to be present in any commodity. What if someone discovers a fuck ton of gold, silver, etc and so on and so forth.

[SplinterZalinsk]

Personally I doubt very much that satoshi would crash the market by cashing out. He is probably already a very rich man. A genius like satoshi would not have created such an amazing innovation and hand it over to mankind to set them free. Just so that he can pull the plug. This is his contribution to a better world. He more than likely is quite satisfied already with his accomplishments. He has also probably already taken his share of riches at some point. Some things are worth much much more than money. He will know exactly how much responsibility he has.

Thanks for understand me I appreciate that

[UCHCHILD]

I guess it is not impossible that satoshi got a one million of bitcoin or more but then for sure satoshi is rich man now and also for sure he is generous he will not let people suffer for his own greediness but then he help though from the very first place he created thia coin to create money for his own but then I think he gets what he wants already also he will not make his name bad just because he withdraw this money for sure he wil make some solution not to let the coin down. This makes him popular and will not let his name be stained by himself.