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Author Topic: My bitcoin speculation for August... Only rise is possible...  (Read 1595 times)
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iram1011
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July 14, 2017, 03:30:52 PM
 #21

we all know that this dip is because of the fear of August 1st and the possibility of a chain split because of the deadline that BIP148 has set.
while many believe that BIP148 is going to fail, i say although it will fail but it is not a failure. the best result of it was the SegWit2x which currently has 91% of the miners support. whereas BIP141 (SegWit) has 46% support.

now the speculation. Grin

i say we are going to have SegWit activated on August 1st by SegWit2x (which needs only 80% support and now has 91% support) and that will lead to a big price recovery and another bull run.
we saw the same thing about activation of SegWit on litecoin. they delayed the activation as much as possible, also caused a big dip after LTC's big rise and then it was activated with nearly 100% support and price jumped another time.

this following chart is happening all over again. this is the same fear. the fear of a hard fork and a split. the difference is that the picture below was because of BU split and now it is the SegWit split. and both of them are because of drama and had a very small chance of coming to reality.



i will expect $3000 be broken if things go as planned. buy the dips then

but it will probably only last about 4-5 months until the second deadline which will be 6 months after activation of SegWit (in 2018). and we may see another one of these.

now by that time either SegWit has lived up to the promise (and it is good enough time to see) and they give up on the 2MB hard fork or we will see the drama all over again over hard forking to a 2 MB base block size.
If UASF gets activated after Segwit2x (which is most likely the case), then yes there will be a jump in price. But what I believe is it wouldn't be instant. There would definitely be a dip because of rumours and speculations which have scared many investors recently. Actually the fact is half of the bitcoin community runs over speculations and rumours only. They play a large role in determining the Bitcoin price. Also, such major events are welcomed with a dip in cryptocurrencies.

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d5000
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July 14, 2017, 07:23:06 PM
 #22

I do like the speculation part about how much the price can go on an upward ride,but what i would like to know is that how much price it can go down,will it go down below $1800 [...]

I think there is a good chance we are currently re-testing the lows after the $3000 high, which were about $2120 at Bitstamp. If this level holds and slowly there is re-building confidence, then I think that will be the low before the "Segwit rally".

However, it's not impossible that uncertainty - nothing is decided yet! - before July 21 lets us see lower lows. So if you are afraid, you may sell if $2100 is broken sustainably (e.g. it not re-bounces inmediatly over the $2120 level), and re-buy around $1850-1900 if there are no particularly bearish news (like some miners reverting their NYA decision and returning to the Non-Segwit client, or Craig Wright buying more than 20% and blocking BIP91 and Segwit).


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crypteris
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July 20, 2017, 01:46:54 PM
 #23

Well, yes. I rather agree over price rise, but I suppose it won't be sudden. My prediction: we'll first see a kind of steadiness with slight fluctuations, and after a while, when everything is settled, it will go up.
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July 20, 2017, 05:23:25 PM
 #24

Well, yes. I rather agree over price rise, but I suppose it won't be sudden. My prediction: we'll first see a kind of steadiness with slight fluctuations, and after a while, when everything is settled, it will go up.

Market has decided in a different way Wink The rise today was extremely steep - and that only because one pool switched to BIP91. F2Pool is still missing (and Bitcoin.com which is still using BU), but they are not needed, it seems.

The downtrend channel is already broken, now we go for a new ATH if everything plays out well. Bitcoin Cash should be bullish, because it is clear that it's an altcoin.

I expect another rise this night at ~2-3AM UTC if BIP91 finally is locked in. It looks good for now, but there are still some blocks to go. Then Segwit should be in - although it is possible that 51% of the miners return to an older client, but I consider that unlikely.

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pooya87
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July 21, 2017, 02:21:10 AM
 #25

i hate to do this but i told you so! i hope someone at least listened and took advantage of the dips and bought something somewhere between $2000 and $1800
SegWit's BIP91 was locked in with 93.1% support...

is this the exact same picture from OP or what (i forgot to draw the "We are here white circle"!):


iamTom123
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July 21, 2017, 02:43:02 AM
 #26

Bitcoin is already on a rising mode this week when it is clear that the feared and much-talked about split has become a remote possibility. This coming August almost all people are expecting to be a great growth month for Bitcoin but we also have to be careful because once euphoria can go down there would always be corrections. The most important thing is that we can be able to experience a more robust, better, fast and cost-efficient Bitcoin. The future for Bitcoin is getting to be brighter and vigorous...thanks to all the people behind the Bitcoin community.


d5000
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July 21, 2017, 02:59:48 AM
 #27

Finally it's locked in definitively Cheesy

There was a bit "sell the news" action but we still are much higher than yesterday. If the lows of the recent dips (about $2670 USD) are not broken then I expect for tomorrow a bullish day ... although less steep than today.

Most Europeans were sleeping by the time BIP91 locked in, so they will perhaps invest a bit tomorrow when they read the BIP91 news. A new monthly high could be in, but perhaps for the ATH we must still wait 'till Segwit is locked in irreversibly.

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