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Author Topic: After the fork BTC + BCC = current BTC ?  (Read 1631 times)
makulo123
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July 28, 2017, 08:52:31 PM
 #1

So the current price of 1 BTC is 2740 USD. It has climbed from 1750 USD to 2400 USD and when news popped out that Bitcoin has locked BIP 91, then it skyrocketed to 2890 USD. Now Bitcoin Cash persits of its fork, so the fork happens and people are still buying Bitcoin. My first question is why?
Okey, so you'll get the equal amount of BCC as you have BTC. For example, you have 10 BTC, then after August 1. you'll get "extra" 10 BCC.
BUT how will the BCC appreciate in value. So BTC will give a % of its market cap to BCC and BCC will get a value of around 400/500 USD (based on futures) meaning that BTC will lose the % of its market cap and decrese in value. Does it mean that after the fork you'll basically have the same value of your current BTC value --> So after the fork value of BTC + BCC = current value of BTC ? I don't know if I am right, just correct me please.
The most reasonable scenario right after the fork may be that BCC will be dumped right after the fork and BTC bought at its lovest price.
What do you think will happen with altcoins (ETH for instance) after the August 1. ?
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July 28, 2017, 09:03:13 PM
 #2

So the current price of 1 BTC is 2740 USD. It has climbed from 1750 USD to 2400 USD and when news popped out that Bitcoin has locked BIP 91, then it skyrocketed to 2890 USD. Now Bitcoin Cash persits of its fork, 1.so the fork happens and people are still buying Bitcoin. My first question is why?
Okey, so you'll get the equal amount of BCC as you have BTC. For example, you have 10 BTC, then after August 1. you'll get "extra" 10 BCC.
Okey, BUT how will the BCC appreciate in value. So BTC will give a % of its market cap to BCH and 2.BCC will get a value of around 400/500 USD (based on futures) meaning that BTC will lose the % of its market cap and decrese in value. Does it mean that after the fork you'll basically have the same value of your current BTC value --> So after the fork value of BTC + BCC = current value of BTC ? I don't know if I am right, just correct me please.
The most reasonable scenario right after the fork may be that BCC will be dumped right after the fork and BTC bought at its lovest price.
What do you think will happen with altcoins (ETH for instance) after the August 1. ?

ok,let me explain a bit for you and answer your question based on my knowledge and market;
1.The fork happen and why people keep buying Bitcoin and why ?
   The answer is very simple my friend,because they want to get a free gift from chain,imagine it if you have 10BTC in your cold storage you will get
   10 BCC/BCH in other chain,doesn't that mean you're profiting from buying Bitcoin ?
2.That won't happen(probably),it's so much for a mere clone and only a few people who's supporting that clown (even thought they're big miners
   doesn't mean they can rule the cryptoworld),take a look at other their Clone like Bitcoin Unlimited and other.Even if it's hit that price,it won't take a
   long time to see the huge dump (more likely whales will pump it to cash out)
3.Bitcoin price may be decreasing because of this,but that won't last long because it's a new start for Bitcoin,we will see another further progress and
   improvement in Bitcoin itself

so in conclusion,Bitcoin is always Bitcoin aka 'BTC' and Bitcoin Cash is always Bitcoin Cash aka 'BCC/BCH'

about Altcoin ? Altcoin always be like that,tomorrow we can see Pump and after tomorrow we can see Dump.
Nothing special


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darkangel11
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July 28, 2017, 09:04:10 PM
 #3

No, think of it like this:
You have an a old coin, and someone finds a way to mint similar coins, made from the same metal, but they won't be as old, so they'll present lower value to a collector. One of these coins is given for free to everyone who holds the old coins, one for each old coin they're holding. Does that mean the value of the old coin will go down? No, because nothing has changed, it will retain its value, while the value of the new coin will depend on the market.

Your way of thinking implies that the makers of the new coin will take a hold of your old coin, chip a part of it and insert it into their newly minted coin to increase its value. Nothing like that will happen. Furthermore, you selling your new coin will have completely no impact on the old coin's value. These will be two separate markets.
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July 28, 2017, 09:12:25 PM
 #4

No, not necessarily. I thought about this before, too, and I looked at the example of Ethereum and Ethereum Classic. I expected that the value of both would have been the same as the value of the forked project. But the combined value was about 20% higher. So, the chance is good - and I think this is the reason why Bitcoin price is currently rising - that the value of Bitcoin and its fork will be higher, too, compared to the price it will have at the fork.
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July 28, 2017, 09:16:25 PM
 #5

No, think of it like this:
You have an a old coin, and someone finds a way to mint similar coins, made from the same metal, but they won't be as old, so they'll present lower value to a collector. One of these coins is given for free to everyone who holds the old coins, one for each old coin they're holding. Does that mean the value of the old coin will go down? No, because nothing has changed, it will retain its value, while the value of the new coin will depend on the market.

Your way of thinking implies that the makers of the new coin will take a hold of your old coin, chip a part of it and insert it into their newly minted coin to increase its value. Nothing like that will happen. Furthermore, you selling your new coin will have completely no impact on the old coin's value. These will be two separate markets.

What you are talking about does not make any sense according to economic theory.
It looks more like an explanation of an illusion show.
makulo123
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July 28, 2017, 09:18:15 PM
 #6

No, think of it like this:
You have an a old coin, and someone finds a way to mint similar coins, made from the same metal, but they won't be as old, so they'll present lower value to a collector. One of these coins is given for free to everyone who holds the old coins, one for each old coin they're holding. Does that mean the value of the old coin will go down? No, because nothing has changed, it will retain its value, while the value of the new coin will depend on the market.

Your way of thinking implies that the makers of the new coin will take a hold of your old coin, chip a part of it and insert it into their newly minted coin to increase its value. Nothing like that will happen. Furthermore, you selling your new coin will have completely no impact on the old coin's value. These will be two separate markets.

Ok, so the market cap of Bitcoin will stay intact? The market cap of Bitcoin will not decrease to provice funds to the BCC market cap? Then how can BCC have any value after the fork?
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July 28, 2017, 09:25:03 PM
 #7

I think most of the people who are dealing with Bitcoin do not understand very well how the economy works and are from first world countries and do not know very well what inflation is.

I do not want to offend anyone but give a look at what happened in Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic.
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July 28, 2017, 09:29:53 PM
Last edit: July 28, 2017, 09:42:54 PM by JohnMacaron
 #8

If Bitcoin is not only a speculative stuff, but rather a means of payment, than price will definitely go down, cause it cannot do otherwise: people splitting up and a divorce is going on, they dividing chapels, children whatever u cannot buy or sell in such circumstances. But if bitcoin is blown-up by sheer speculation of speculators and con artists and is not used like money, THEN price can stabilize or even grow, while it doesn't depend on real economic value of bitcoin as a form of money  which is actually used by poople to buy things.
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July 28, 2017, 09:37:08 PM
 #9

I do not want to offend anyone but give a look at what happened in Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic.

You've highly offended us by offering to take a look at Zimbabwe or Weimar Republic. I demand apologies for such an outrage
theta
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July 28, 2017, 09:39:43 PM
Last edit: July 28, 2017, 09:49:48 PM by theta
 #10

It's very similar to a company spinning off a subsidiary, or paying a large dividend.
The next day after it goes ex-div (or after the spin-off), the parent company shares are trading at the previous price minus the value of the div/spin-off.
Based on current market pricing, if 1BTC=$2750 and 1BCC=$400, then immediately after the fork it will be 1BTC=$2350 and 1BCC=$400. Then the 2 coins will fluctuate independently (they already do implicitly in the futures market)
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July 28, 2017, 09:42:47 PM
 #11

Ok, so the market cap of Bitcoin will stay intact? The market cap of Bitcoin will not decrease to provice funds to the BCC market cap? Then how can BCC have any value after the fork?
So you're assuming people will sell their bitcoins to get more BCC?
If every bitcoin holder will become BCC holder, we'll have a lot of people holding a coin with no recognizability and acceptance. BTC is getting an upgrade, which with no fork would certainly mean a huge pump, so I predict most of BCC owners will use this opportunity to immediately dump it and take their profits, while holding BTC.
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July 28, 2017, 09:46:33 PM
 #12

BTC + BCC = BTC price + pennies...

This BCC probably won't price anything, the price will be hardly dumped, people are just wanting this to sell and make profit, not to hold, at least not to hold until they have some guarantees it could be profitable. The focus here is BTC, do'nt hope to make huge profit with this another chain, in my opinion it's better to sell fast while the price is acceptable, to hold this currency is too risky.

On the another hand, you earned it for "free", so you won't lose anything anyway if you choose to continue holding, who knows, maybe you can make $50 profit per 1 BCC...

 
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July 28, 2017, 09:47:47 PM
 #13

What will be the effect when everyone is selling it?

They'll have 0 BCC and some amount of Bitcoin for it. But no money went in Bitcoin so I guess the value will decrease a little.

But a lot of money will go into Bitcoin I think so it will overall rise, since Bitcoin has lost the scaling problem for now.

Guess I will keep BCC short term, maybe someone will pump it.

3ADZdEawDgfhcHaXzZorX1aVxv7s2Ppv9e (beer BTC)
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July 28, 2017, 09:48:43 PM
 #14

Ok, so the market cap of Bitcoin will stay intact? The market cap of Bitcoin will not decrease to provice funds to the BCC market cap? Then how can BCC have any value after the fork?
So you're assuming people will sell their bitcoins to get more BCC?
Assuming that every bitcoin holder will become BCC holder, we'll have a lot of people holding a coin with no recognizability and acceptance. BTC is getting an upgrade, which with no fork would certainly mean a huge pump, so I predict most of BCC owners will use this opportunity to immediately dump it and take their profits, while holding BTC.

Do u even understand what u're talking about? "Holders", "profits", "pump-dump" - what is this shit? Do we want scalable convenient system which everyone can use as money globalwise or we want just another Ponzi scheme with MLM elements? Bitcoin in current state looks like last option.. and it's going down because of congestion and lack of scalability, dont' u see?
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July 28, 2017, 09:56:06 PM
 #15

It's very similar to a company spinning off a subsidiary, or paying a large dividend.
The next day after it goes ex-div (or after the spin-off), the parent company shares are trading at the previous price minus the value of the div/spin-off.
Based on current market pricing, if 1BTC=$2750 and 1BCC=$400, then immediately after the fork it will be 1BTC=$2350 and 1BCC=$400. Then the 2 coins will fluctuate independently (they already do implicitly in the futures market)



Is that how this works though?  How is the value determined when it forks.  The futures market has such little volume, it doesn't seem like a reliable indicator of where BTC might be when it forks.

makulo123
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July 28, 2017, 10:05:30 PM
 #16

Exactly! How can BCC hold any value if it does not have any funds/market cap to have any value... And as far as I know BCC had not ICO, no crowdfunding, no nothing...
makulo123
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July 28, 2017, 10:06:33 PM
 #17

Or maybe the market cap right after the fork will be zero, meaning there will be only price for one BCC and every BTC holder will get free airdropped BCC?
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July 28, 2017, 10:08:00 PM
 #18

Do u even understand what u're talking about? "Holders", "profits", "pump-dump" - what is this shit? Do we want scalable convenient system which everyone can use as money globalwise or we want just another Ponzi scheme with MLM elements? Bitcoin in current state looks like last option.. and it's going down because of congestion and lack of scalability, dont' u see?
I see we have a BTC hater here. If it looks to you like a ponzi scheme, I guess we won't find common ground.
FYI it's going up because of growing popularity and adoption. It's been going up since 2009.

BTC + BCC = BTC price + pennies...
That's basically it.
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July 28, 2017, 10:11:06 PM
 #19

Quote
After the fork BTC + BCC = current BTC ?

You forgot BITCOIN-CORE OF 2014 : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2044085.0
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July 28, 2017, 10:19:59 PM
 #20

I do not want to offend anyone but give a look at what happened in Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic.

You've highly offended us by offering to take a look at Zimbabwe or Weimar Republic. I demand apologies for such an outrage

I'm sorry.
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July 28, 2017, 10:21:50 PM
 #21

It's very similar to a company spinning off a subsidiary, or paying a large dividend.
The next day after it goes ex-div (or after the spin-off), the parent company shares are trading at the previous price minus the value of the div/spin-off.
Based on current market pricing, if 1BTC=$2750 and 1BCC=$400, then immediately after the fork it will be 1BTC=$2350 and 1BCC=$400. Then the 2 coins will fluctuate independently (they already do implicitly in the futures market)



Is that how this works though?  How is the value determined when it forks.  The futures market has such little volume, it doesn't seem like a reliable indicator of where BTC might be when it forks.



With the caveat of low volume in the futures market (I fully agree on this), the way it works is by anything other than that being arbitraged away.
Futures will settle when BCC become available. Whoever is selling BCC futures will deliver actual BCC when they receive them. For all practical purposes in terms of market impact it's as if they have already sold them. If everyone had access to this market, then if oldBTC (now, before the fork) is trading at anything more than the sum of newBTC (after the fork) and BCC, it represents free money and the difference would be arbed away immediately. But the above mentioned caveat (low volume, few people have access) applies.
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July 28, 2017, 10:21:56 PM
 #22

Do u even understand what u're talking about? "Holders", "profits", "pump-dump" - what is this shit? Do we want scalable convenient system which everyone can use as money globalwise or we want just another Ponzi scheme with MLM elements? Bitcoin in current state looks like last option.. and it's going down because of congestion and lack of scalability, dont' u see?
I see we have a BTC hater here. If it looks to you like a ponzi scheme, I guess we won't find common ground.
FYI it's going up because of growing popularity and adoption. It's been going up since 2009.

Accordingly to the growth of system mus grow block size, but it's not. That's why recent dump to 1700$ and now we see only speculations about what will be after fock, real users are abandoning bitcoin in its current state of being.
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July 28, 2017, 10:56:57 PM
 #23

So the current price of 1 BTC is 2740 USD. It has climbed from 1750 USD to 2400 USD and when news popped out that Bitcoin has locked BIP 91, then it skyrocketed to 2890 USD. Now Bitcoin Cash persits of its fork, so the fork happens and people are still buying Bitcoin. My first question is why?
Okey, so you'll get the equal amount of BCC as you have BTC. For example, you have 10 BTC, then after August 1. you'll get "extra" 10 BCC.
BUT how will the BCC appreciate in value. So BTC will give a % of its market cap to BCC and BCC will get a value of around 400/500 USD (based on futures) meaning that BTC will lose the % of its market cap and decrese in value. Does it mean that after the fork you'll basically have the same value of your current BTC value --> So after the fork value of BTC + BCC = current value of BTC ? I don't know if I am right, just correct me please.
The most reasonable scenario right after the fork may be that BCC will be dumped right after the fork and BTC bought at its lovest price.
What do you think will happen with altcoins (ETH for instance) after the August 1. ?

There is a dash for BTC so people can get free BCC. It will happen over the next few days, self-evidence by looking at the altcoins crashing today and will continue as people convert altcoins into BTC. One has to be mad to buy altcoins at the moment. Demand for BTC will go up, then after Aug 1st hardfork... make your own guess.

Some people claim that they will ump BCC... i suspect they want others to dump, so they can buy cheap BCC. BTC will will fluctuate up and down for a while until things calm down.

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July 28, 2017, 11:14:28 PM
 #24

I was also thinking that the real value of BTC will be divided among BTC and BCC based on a certain percentage after the fork in Aug 1. Personally I think from mid August or so, when the bitcoin network is settled, other coins will start appreciating..
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July 28, 2017, 11:31:01 PM
 #25

No, think of it like this:
You have an a old coin, and someone finds a way to mint similar coins, made from the same metal, but they won't be as old, so they'll present lower value to a collector. One of these coins is given for free to everyone who holds the old coins, one for each old coin they're holding. Does that mean the value of the old coin will go down? No, because nothing has changed, it will retain its value, while the value of the new coin will depend on the market.

Your way of thinking implies that the makers of the new coin will take a hold of your old coin, chip a part of it and insert it into their newly minted coin to increase its value. Nothing like that will happen. Furthermore, you selling your new coin will have completely no impact on the old coin's value. These will be two separate markets.

Hmm..
So it means since traders are not actually buying BCC but getting it for FREE, there's virtually no pressure on king BTC.
But BCC value may even decline due to minor (or less) support and the intentions of BTC holders to sell BCC for added cash and even buy more BTC !!! Still sounds strange tho
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