Bitcoin vs SegWit2x - after split price predictions

[hatshepsut93]

Now it looks more and more like SegWit2x fork is falling apart and will be very similar to BCH in execution - mining for the sake of difficulty manipulation and quick profit. This will require some exchanges to accept B2X coins, otherwise no one will mine them, which means that SegWit2x devs will have to install replay protection - no one is that crazy to seriously switch to B2X and treat it as if it was Bitcoin. If there won't be any replay protection, miners would risk to waste their power on useless coin. This leads to next predictions: if replay protections will be introduced, we can expect to see some 30-60% switching to B2X at least for short term; if there will be no protection, this number will be much lower, around 10-30%. In both scenarios, Bitcoin shouldn't suffer much, worst case we'll drop 25% and than recover in a few days to previous levels.

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[exstasie]

If there won't be any replay protection, miners would risk to waste their power on useless coin. This leads to next predictions: if replay protections will be introduced, we can expect to see some 30-60% switching to B2X at least for short term; if there will be no protection, this number will be much lower, around 10-30%. In both scenarios, Bitcoin shouldn't suffer much, worst case we'll drop 25% and than recover in a few days to previous levels.

You seem very optimistic. How about a 51% attack with a super majority of miners? That's what a hard fork with no replay protection is. Between SPV wallets and exchanges like Coinbase and services like Bitpay, most Bitcoin users would be following the hard fork chain.

After all, most Bitcoin users do not run a full node; they default to a service (like the many signed onto the NYA) or they run a non-validating node. If it comes down to a super majority of miners and no replay protection, we are facing a very messy situation.

[freedomsr40]

My strategy will be very clear: hold bitcoin for the split and wait for the airdrop.

Then wait till the dust will be settled down then see which side I will pick.

I highly doubt that combined value will be much lower after some time.

[krizniq]

My strategy will be very clear: hold bitcoin for the split and wait for the airdrop.

Then wait till the dust will be settled down then see which side I will pick.

I highly doubt that combined value will be much lower after some time.

funny.... but fyi there will be no airdrop....

[makishart]

Another split? probably it will happen as with Bitcoin Cash. A good name would be just segwit2xcoin.

I am beginning to think people like to produce split in order to create opportunities to earn a little from the forked coin, rather than to seriously produce an alternative.

I think this will be much more complicated, because devs of SegWit2x call their coin Bitcoin, unlike Bcash who at least honestly distinguished itself from Bitcoin.

People who run online wallets will have power to decide for their users which chain is Bitcoin, and it can be huge. For example, Coinbase is a part of NYA, and in worst case scenario they will push 2x as Bitcoin and refuse to support Core chain, so suddenly all their customers will only have 2x coins.

There was a huge volatility around Jul 20th when the situation with SegWit was uncertain, and this might repeat in November.

Who are the developers behind Segwitx2?

You can read the first paragraph from this article.
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/segwit2x-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-2mb-hard-fork-27749e1544ce

That already explained about the history and purpose of the segwit 2x and it seems to be a reliable information.

The segwit 2x will give the more improvement to the bitcoin.

[hatshepsut93]

If there won't be any replay protection, miners would risk to waste their power on useless coin. This leads to next predictions: if replay protections will be introduced, we can expect to see some 30-60% switching to B2X at least for short term; if there will be no protection, this number will be much lower, around 10-30%. In both scenarios, Bitcoin shouldn't suffer much, worst case we'll drop 25% and than recover in a few days to previous levels.

You seem very optimistic. How about a 51% attack with a super majority of miners? That's what a hard fork with no replay protection is. Between SPV wallets and exchanges like Coinbase and services like Bitpay, most Bitcoin users would be following the hard fork chain.

After all, most Bitcoin users do not run a full node; they default to a service (like the many signed onto the NYA) or they run a non-validating node. If it comes down to a super majority of miners and no replay protection, we are facing a very messy situation.

51% attack means attacker is mining valid blocks with malicious intent - either a chain reorg to make a double spending or mining empty blocks to stop the network. This means that even full nodes are affected by it, while with hard fork full nodes just reject invalid blocks. SPV clients, if configured properly, also detect chain splits. Online services hold the power to decide for their users what chain to follow, which can be very damaging to either chain, but big exchanges would quickly suffer legal consequences if they'll try to force unwanted chain on their users. So, this kind of attack by hard fork is not as scary as it may sound, and it's definitely not the same as 51% attack.

[Silberman]

The hard fork that is coming does not have the strength to kill bitcoin but I have no doubt that if the fork does comes to happen this is going to affect the price in a deep way since most miners are backing this new coin and if all of them move to this new coin then that could make bitcoin confirmations very slow for a very long time until the difficulty gets adjusted.

There's multiple possibilities if a super majority of miners continues backing Segwit2x and moves forward with the hard fork. Many supporters of legacy BTC have maintained that difficulty will eventually readjust on the legacy chain, even if the hash rate drops significantly. That's not necessarily true. It's entirely possible, if the vast majority of miners switch to Segwit2x, that difficulty will never readjust on the legacy chain.

In that case, those who do not wish to migrate to Segwit2x may be forced to switch to a hard fork of their own-- one which either has an emergency difficulty drop to get the network stable again, or a POW algorithm change.

That's the worst case scenario: a dead legacy chain and two altcoins.......

Wow thanks for the great info, then that means that the hard fork possibly coming in November does have the capacity to damage or even destroy bitcoin, not even in my wildest dreams I would have thought of that, it is like a nightmare that something like bitcoin that we have been waiting for a long time can be killed by the greed of the miners.

[exstasie]

The hard fork that is coming does not have the strength to kill bitcoin but I have no doubt that if the fork does comes to happen this is going to affect the price in a deep way since most miners are backing this new coin and if all of them move to this new coin then that could make bitcoin confirmations very slow for a very long time until the difficulty gets adjusted.

There's multiple possibilities if a super majority of miners continues backing Segwit2x and moves forward with the hard fork. Many supporters of legacy BTC have maintained that difficulty will eventually readjust on the legacy chain, even if the hash rate drops significantly. That's not necessarily true. It's entirely possible, if the vast majority of miners switch to Segwit2x, that difficulty will never readjust on the legacy chain.

In that case, those who do not wish to migrate to Segwit2x may be forced to switch to a hard fork of their own-- one which either has an emergency difficulty drop to get the network stable again, or a POW algorithm change.

That's the worst case scenario: a dead legacy chain and two altcoins.......

Wow thanks for the great info, then that means that the hard fork possibly coming in November does have the capacity to damage or even destroy bitcoin, not even in my wildest dreams I would have thought of that, it is like a nightmare that something like bitcoin that we have been waiting for a long time can be killed by the greed of the miners.

Remember, miners are heavily invested stakeholders. They have entrenched interests, so they will flex their muscles if different protocol changes will affect their prospective incomes.

However, they are also heavily invested in Bitcoin's success. I don't think many miners (if any) mine simply to dump for current market prices. They only sell to cover overhead and otherwise are investing for the long term.

So, miners don't want a split. The scenario above is a worst-case scenario. But it's also one that some Bitcoin developers (like Luke Dash Jr.) are already prepare for, code-wise. The problem is that no one can predict future demand for either chain. So if miners charge forward with a hard fork with bad information about user demand, they could end up causing a messy network split.