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Author Topic: Out in the wild - people think Bitcoins will drop to 0  (Read 7116 times)
elggawf
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June 22, 2011, 04:40:38 PM
 #41

Actually people laugh when they see a completely unbacked thing being called currency

There's nothing wrong with an unbacked currency if everyone understands the rules going in to it - instead of being backed by the bullets of a government (which is the only thing the USD is backed by anymore), Bitcoin is simply backed by the voluntary acceptance of it by others. The fact that there's a huge chunk of those "others" who are accepting it at what could be vastly inflated prices, based on the speculation that if it takes off "it's going to be huge" doesn't really say anything about an unbacked currency, it merely says something about those others' "investment" decision making process.

There is a tiny "economy" going on... a handful of businesses are accepting Bitcoins (at huge risk at the moment, due to the above-mentioned price factors), and there are several trading sites where people have actually sold shit to each other using Bitcoins. I've sold stuff using Bitcoins - it's nice to know that once I pass the finish line (USD in my bank account for me, I can't pay my bills in BTC), I don't have to worry about some shithead doing a chargeback on something I can't recover. To scoff and not call that an economy is just being stubborn and silly.

I think I know the other place you're discussing Bitcoin, and I'd just like to point out that it's detractors are for the most part, just as big tools as Bitcoin's biggest cheerleaders. 95% of that gargantuan thread is people making idiotic assertions that are patently false, that anyone who spent 5 minutes looking over the wiki would already understand are already addressed. But no, I enjoy reading 80 times a day "what's stopping satoshi from making more coins at random?" as much as you probably enjoy reading asshats talking about how Bitcoin will change the world if only someone else does the hard work of bootstrapping a real economy to match it's speculative worth (and don't even get me started on the - now thankfully thinning - libertarded approach to tax dodging using BTC as a selling point).

There are real, intelligent concerns to be had about Bitcoin's legitimacy as a real currency in the next decade or two (though hopefully not insurmountable, time will tell) - but if you guys think you're hitting the nail on the head with "hurr, not backed by anything", as I said, just as much tools as the BTC cheerleaders.

^_^
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June 23, 2011, 01:11:04 AM
 #42

There are a lot of factors in play, yes, but we need to keep in mind that there's no direct pull on a BTC buyer to pay more because Joe Miner only makes 2 BTC/day today, whereas he made 4 BTC/day last week.

The SAME NUMBER OF BITCOINS are produced every week, regardless of how many miners participate in the bounty.

Print that out, put it on your wall. It cuts to the essence of this "difficulty" controversy.

Here me out I'm going to use your logic here.

If the same amount of bitcoins are made every week, but the number of miners increases then what happens? We form  DEMAND for a finite resource, thus making the coins even more valuable.  If people want it, it doesn't matter what me or anyone else says, the price is going up. Maybe the demand will very well be sparked by the miners themselves, but demand is demand nonetheless.

Miners may DEMAND coins, but if they are not BUYING them then they do not affect the price. Your logic is broken. If I fire up my GPU miner and the difficulty increases accordingly, explain the causal chain that leads from this to a increased price.
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June 23, 2011, 01:24:03 AM
 #43

Doug Casey of Casey Research is a highly intelligent, well-respected, level-headed, Libertarian wealthy investor.  He loathes government and loves free enterprise.  Here is what he had to say about Bitcoin

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cwc/doug-casey-bitcoin-and-currencies
elggawf
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June 23, 2011, 01:33:46 AM
 #44

Doug Casey of Casey Research is a highly intelligent, well-respected, level-headed, Libertarian wealthy investor.  He loathes government and loves free enterprise.  Here is what he had to say about Bitcoin

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cwc/doug-casey-bitcoin-and-currencies

TL;DR: "Don't use Bitcoin, use GoldMoney (of which I'm an investor)".

^_^
Bunghole
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June 23, 2011, 01:36:08 AM
 #45

GoldMoney completely rocks, but they are subject to all of the typical Know Your Customer laws, which make privacy impossible.
elggawf
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June 23, 2011, 01:37:22 AM
 #46

GoldMoney completely rocks, but they are subject to all of the typical Know Your Customer laws, which make privacy impossible.

Yeah sure, but holy fuck once you get about a third of the way through that "article" you realize pretty quickly it's a thinly veiled press release.

^_^
foggyb
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June 23, 2011, 01:41:30 AM
 #47

There are a lot of factors in play, yes, but we need to keep in mind that there's no direct pull on a BTC buyer to pay more because Joe Miner only makes 2 BTC/day today, whereas he made 4 BTC/day last week.

The SAME NUMBER OF BITCOINS are produced every week, regardless of how many miners participate in the bounty.

Print that out, put it on your wall. It cuts to the essence of this "difficulty" controversy.


Thats fine. But as a miner, if my hardware is paid off, I DO ... NOT ... HAVE to sell my coins.... EVER!

Miners don't control the price.....lol....you watch us if the price gets too low.
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June 23, 2011, 01:52:03 AM
 #48

...(the coins mined each day are a tiny fraction of the coins that change hands every day) ...

In a short to medium-term bear market: The 7,000+(?) coins mined each day are a huge burden for the Bulls to overcome. The "great wall @$25 soon gave birth to a great wall @$20."
Dropping as low as $2 or $5 is completely realistic, IMO.
Long-term optimism is fun, short-term realism is profitable if you "play your coins right."


15DYJpWJe9H1YofsNQbP9JEWWNn7XPZgbS
elggawf
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June 23, 2011, 02:00:31 AM
 #49

Thats fine. But as a miner, if my hardware is paid off, I DO ... NOT ... HAVE to sell my coins.... EVER!

Miners don't control the price.....lol....you watch us if the price gets too low.

You can demand whatever price you like, doesn't mean there are a never ending line of people marching into the market to pay it. So you clutch those coins close to your chest, shrieking "I will make a profit, dammit", while the market marches ever farther south... how long until you give in and sell some off, or quit mining?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to say the market will go down - but you should at least entertain the possibility if you're investing in Bitcoins. If you're mining and holding, you are investing in Bitcoins - you're exactly the same as the people who bought in except you buy in through a bigger power bill... hoping to christ the price comes back up so you can turn a profit just like everyone else.

Yeah you've sure got this market by the balls!

^_^
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