Would you believe it if I told you I am less bearish?

[RyNinDaCleM]

Don't! As an accumulator, I am always bearish on price. Even as I ride on the back of a dirty bull.

Here is some food for thought;
Let us assume for a second that luc knows what he's talking about with this "Historical wave-III". I will also use the count where $1200 was the wave-I top of this cycle.
Simple math and some chart measurements sheds some light on what I am getting at here. Basically, wave 3's are generally much longer (in time... Price too, but that's not my point here) than wave 1's. Below, a chart showing some measurements and some notes.



Markets repeat, for the most part, fractals on different scales. The chart below shows the smaller degree waves in the chart above just to show that it holds fairly consistently.
 


So all I am saying is that prices higher than many here can imagine, can be achievable over the next 2-3 years. People scoff at speculations of 5 digit and especially 6 digit prices, but a log scale chart shows how it is reasonable and clearly possible as adoption moves Bitcoin from niche to mainstream. Wave-III is the place where that happens, and wave-III may have just really got started.

Here are some other arguments that tend to agree with luc's channel.

A monthly chart shows where we'd be if we had a monthly candle similar to the November 2013 candle. 480% rise in a month. Well, a 480% rise here puts us at $20k. In just a single month. Definitely doable.



1900 days at the current trajectory puts us around 100k. That assumes no fomo takes us into acceleration channels at near-vertical angles... for 1200 more days.



One last item to note. In the third chart, the monthly one, notice that the volume hasn't even begun to pick up yet compared to the end of 2013. There is a long way to go, and this ain't fomo yet.

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[TaurusBit]

A lot to digest.

[fabiorem]

Completely possible.

100k by the middle of 2019.

[gentlemand]

$20,000 in a month? Cor blimey. Even if the will was there, are the exchanges good and robust enough for that type of action? By the sounds of it even Coinbase's banking is a little bit of a kludge. I can imagine many a bank having kittens at a vast increase in money moving in and out of them.

I think my prediction for this year in 2015 was $263.40 as it's always fun to be conservative so my spider senses have proven to be utterly useless. I'll let nature take its course.

[RyNinDaCleM]

$20,000 in a month? Cor blimey. Even if the will was there, are the exchanges good and robust enough for that type of action? By the sounds of it even Coinbase's banking is a little bit of a kludge. I can imagine many a bank having kittens at a vast increase in money moving in and out of them.

I think my prediction for this year in 2015 was $263.40 as it's always fun to be conservative so my spider senses have proven to be utterly useless. I'll let nature take its course.

Purely hypothetical, of course. Just showing how a similar rise makes it seem so much more plausible, and puts it into perspective with past bubbles. Now, the fomo will come, but when is the hard part to judge. This is wave-III after all, this is the moment of recognition or that "aha!" moment.

[kwukduck]

You guys are friggin nuts.
Why not forget about all the fundamentals and political games going on and just draw on charts eh?
The November fork will be the biggest disruption and crash in crypto we've seen since MtGox. Both politically and price wise.

[megadeth]

Ryan is a bull?
I rage quit the internet man.  

Stoop moving the market!

[RyNinDaCleM]

Ryan is a bull?
I rage quit the internet man.  

lol, reread the first line

Don't! As an accumulator, I am always bearish on price. Even as I ride on the back of a dirty bull.

I am by no means a bull, at least not by what this forum considers a bull. No need to quit, man! Shit just got interesting

[chesthing]

You guys are friggin nuts.
Why not forget about all the fundamentals and political games going on and just draw on charts eh?
The November fork will be the biggest disruption and crash in crypto we've seen since MtGox. Both politically and price wise.

You have surely become a full fledged retard here, do you have no shame? at least change your account and name if you are going to continue fudding, you have lost 100% credibility.

[fabiorem]

The November fork will be the biggest disruption and crash in crypto we've seen since MtGox. Both politically and price wise.

You said the same about August, and here we are.

[FiendCoin]

The November fork will be the biggest disruption and crash in crypto we've seen since MtGox. Both politically and price wise.

You said the same about August, and here we are.

The question is, what's more important to Jihan, money or kicking the core developers out?

So far, I'd say kicking the core devs out.

Someone is eating the cost of mining on crapcash and accumulating those shit coins.

I expect a bloodbath in nov, however, I thought aug 1st would be bad too and I was wrong.

[btc4lifer]

We're only in wave 1 of historical III and we're going to hit $20k.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bEqmwBkZ/

[btc4lifer]

BTW, coinbase signed up 400k people so far this month...

https://image.prntscr.com/image/N5GA7Y1oSw6sr-aCB0K58w.png

[gentlemand]

The question is, what's more important to Jihan, money or kicking the core developers out?

So far, I'd say kicking the core devs out.

There's far, far more money to be made once he's 'fired' Core. Him and his wee friends will be in full control of whatever form of Bitcoin it is by then. It's short term pain for long term gain.

[FiendCoin]

The question is, what's more important to Jihan, money or kicking the core developers out?

So far, I'd say kicking the core devs out.

There's far, far more money to be made once he's 'fired' Core. Him and his wee friends will be in full control of whatever form of Bitcoin it is by then. It's short term pain for long term gain.

Only if users buy into it.

[panju1]

$20,000 in a month? Cor blimey. Even if the will was there, are the exchanges good and robust enough for that type of action? By the sounds of it even Coinbase's banking is a little bit of a kludge. I can imagine many a bank having kittens at a vast increase in money moving in and out of them.

I think my prediction for this year in 2015 was $263.40 as it's always fun to be conservative so my spider senses have proven to be utterly useless. I'll let nature take its course.

Purely hypothetical, of course. Just showing how a similar rise makes it seem so much more plausible, and puts it into perspective with past bubbles. Now, the fomo will come, but when is the hard part to judge. This is wave-III after all, this is the moment of recognition or that "aha!" moment.

If it does happen we shouldn't be surprised. People who bought bitcoins for a few dollars in 2012 made money only because they believed in bitcoins and held on to it during its strong rise. They resisted the temptation to sell when their investment doubled.

[cengsuwuei]

iam believe if bitcoin trend not long time can down trend and down price
is not good is comoditie in trading always incraese price

[megadeth]

Epic thread is epic.

[shursight]

Wow that is nice to hear that, and i am really amazed about your strategy and for sure that you have a good technical analysis.
I do it to, but i dont use to trade btc/usd because that is risky for me, and i dont like to be too much worry about that, i prefer only trading btc/alts and i think that is more safe than doing that, and betting for bearish, i would die if i do that...

[RyNinDaCleM]

Wow that is nice to hear that, and i am really amazed about your strategy and for sure that you have a good technical analysis.
I do it to, but i dont use to trade btc/usd because that is risky for me, and i dont like to be too much worry about that, i prefer only trading btc/alts and i think that is more safe than doing that, and betting for bearish, i would die if i do that...

Now is not the time to bet on bear. The bear will come (and a small taste will come in the next month or two), but the big bear (years long) won't be for a while. Definitely BTC/alts are safer right now. Many alts, while initially taking a hit during BTC rises, they tend to all rise during BTC bull markets, and especially now, tend to outperform Bitcoin. Good way to increase your stash when you hit it right.

[infofront]

Ryan is a bull?
I rage quit the internet man.  

lol, reread the first line

Don't! As an accumulator, I am always bearish on price. Even as I ride on the back of a dirty bull.

I am by no means a bull, at least not by what this forum considers a bull. No need to quit, man! Shit just got interesting

It seems contradictory to me that you can believe we're at the beginning of wave III and not be a bull.

[YuginKadoya]

This chart could take on and on to speculate but it can surely have a significance in making assumption on how the way bitcoin value would go in the future by looking on this, and I think there is a certain chart like this that have been speculated that in the year 2024 the value of bitcoin would reach $10,000 mark value and we could surely see the price reaching it's peak.

[SkRRJyTC]

Much respect RyN

[whaawh]

This chart could take on and on to speculate but it can surely have a significance in making assumption on how the way bitcoin value would go in the future by looking on this, and I think there is a certain chart like this that have been speculated that in the year 2024 the value of bitcoin would reach $10,000 mark value and we could surely see the price reaching it's peak.

The fact is that the forecasts for today there are quite a lot And I even heard that 100,000 dollars by 2024 is not the last boundary. I think that Bitcoin is very active. It will rise for the next 10 years, but I do not think it's worth mentioning the numbers.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I can't decide if we're going higher in the long term--5 years or so is long term for me--or if this is totally a bubble.  I do think bitcoin is going mainstream,  and all the media articles are facilitating this.  But I've been hedging my bets and assuaging my doubts by buying some precious metals with bitcoin.  I don't trust this market not to crash, and I'd like to preserve what little capital I have invested.   I'm not a rich guy, and I hate losing money.

Also, I don't trust charts either.   Not in the stock market and not in crypto either.

[Syke]

A monthly chart shows where we'd be if we had a monthly candle similar to the November 2013 candle. 480% rise in a month.

Best to discount that month a bit. Willybot faked a significant portion of that growth.

[jjacob]

I can't decide if we're going higher in the long term--5 years or so is long term for me--or if this is totally a bubble.  I do think bitcoin is going mainstream,  and all the media articles are facilitating this.  But I've been hedging my bets and assuaging my doubts by buying some precious metals with bitcoin.  I don't trust this market not to crash, and I'd like to preserve what little capital I have invested.   I'm not a rich guy, and I hate losing money.

Also, I don't trust charts either.   Not in the stock market and not in crypto either.

5 years is a life time in the crypto world. You would have a block reward halving plus multiple cycles before that.
I definitely feel holding bitcoins for the long term should be profitable. But they should definitely be a small part of your portfolio, something which needn't be hedged.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Update to the "what if we had a monthly candle like November 2013?" question.


now reaching $25k. Come on, bulls, lets get the show on the road! Only 2 weeks left! 

[RyNinDaCleM]

End of the year blowout. Lets do this!  


Yes, that's 58k now

[btc4lifer]

End of the year blowout. Lets do this!  
https://i.imgur.com/IoYzWBT.png

Yes, that's 58k now

i have my asks set. lets do this 

[RyNinDaCleM]

4 years later. All 5-digit numbers mentioned in this thread have been hit, and still without that crazy monthly candle. I'm not about to post a new chart showing a 400% candle from here, but I will make mention of some of the low ball valuations posted here were long...LONG overshot... and in half the time.  
Keep on keeping on!

b4l, you my homie! 

[darkangelosme]

It is very annoying to think about charts like that dude, for me i'll just follow the basic rules of buy when low and sell when high, but it is more better if you study the history of the coin that you'll going to invest like what you are doing to avoid any kinds of loses.

[adaseb]

I started reading the thread, then I noticed you were talking about master luc, then I checked the date and didn’t realize it’s an old thread. Speaking of masterluc , how is he doing? Haven’t heard about him in ages. I remember his predictions were always spot on.

Now the only old timer that still posts is that guy posting the stock to flow model and how BTC is going to hit $98K in Dec and something like peaking at $250K this cycle sometime later this year.

[TheEconomists]

I can't decide if we're going higher in the long term--5 years or so is long term for me--or if this is totally a bubble.  I do think bitcoin is going mainstream,  and all the media articles are facilitating this.  But I've been hedging my bets and assuaging my doubts by buying some precious metals with bitcoin.  I don't trust this market not to crash, and I'd like to preserve what little capital I have invested.   I'm not a rich guy, and I hate losing money.

Also, I don't trust charts either.   Not in the stock market and not in crypto either.

I don't think any serious rich person will be here making weekly post for weekly pay almost everyone here are out to make ends meet. Bitcoin price is not meant be steadily increasing that one should a mind the he or she will keep holding. That is happening to Bitcoin price increase is as a result of more adoption and it is limited in supply, time will eventually come when it will going down seriously.

[darkangelosme]

I am also i believe that this year will be bullrun cause simple Bitcoin is increasing year by year and we must think like an investor if we want sure profit and if you are a trader you must accept that there is a big risk of losing your money.

[palle11]

I am also i believe that this year will be bullrun cause simple Bitcoin is increasing year by year and we must think like an investor if we want sure profit and if you are a trader you must accept that there is a big risk of losing your money.

Being an investor should not matter to bitcoin or to the direction of where price is going or will go. We have to look within the chart to analyse and not being sentimental . The market isn't based on sentiment, at most we can speculate still with the studying of chart. Thinking like an investor is not practical but acting base on bitcoin activity is practical.

[adaseb]

I am also i believe that this year will be bullrun cause simple Bitcoin is increasing year by year and we must think like an investor if we want sure profit and if you are a trader you must accept that there is a big risk of losing your money.

This is not always true. Not every trader loses money and not every investor makes money. Look at the stock market for example. Sure the people who invested in the popular stocks like AAPL, AMZN, TSLA made good money because these typically are breaking ATH after ATH however look at how many stocks there are that are trading now at huge losses.

Remember how big Zoom was during the pandemic? I think it almost hit $600 a share and yesterday it broke $200. And same with Peleton, it hit like $80 and now it’s worth less than half. These people who bought are investors and all lost money.

[sana54210]

This is not always true. Not every trader loses money and not every investor makes money. Look at the stock market for example. Sure the people who invested in the popular stocks like AAPL, AMZN, TSLA made good money because these typically are breaking ATH after ATH however look at how many stocks there are that are trading now at huge losses.

Remember how big Zoom was during the pandemic? I think it almost hit $600 a share and yesterday it broke $200. And same with Peleton, it hit like $80 and now it’s worth less than half. These people who bought are investors and all lost money.

I have seen many people who ended up losing over long term as well, because they invested into things that didn't make sense. It does happen in the crypto world and it happens in stock or other things as well. However if we were to talk about bitcoin then no long term person could possibly lose money looking at the historical chart. If you are losing money by being long term, then you are not long term enough.

I can see that as long as you hold bitcoin long enough, that means you are going to profit from it, it is also true  for some of the top coins like ETH and BNB as well. However there are "long term" people who sell when they see a crash, and those people are not true long term investors, they are just short term investors who convinced themselves they are long term because they didn't sell for like 3 months. That is still short term to me, long term starts with few years and goes above, you can't be long term and hold "months".