THIS ICO is in fact a very unusual and interesting one. It is not the vision of ChronoLogic and the planned purpose of the DAY token as a proof-of-time currency for business cases. No, it is the concept, HOW the DAY tokens are issued and mined. This may end up in a WTF-moment, right after the contribution is over and the DAY token will become tradable.
But let’s start from the outset and let me enumerate the essential cornerstones:
- • The contribution is limited to maximum 3,333 accounts. (This is really limited!)
• A single contribution is possible from 1 to 333 ETH max. (To prevent an unbalanced participation)
• These 3.333 contributors will get 24 DAY Token for each 1 ETH, as soon as the contribution is over.
• Ends in a price about $12.50 per token. ( which is a very high DAY/USD value for a token)
• The ETH addresses of the 3.333 contributors are also TimeMInt addresses, with a daily interest rate from 0.5% to 1% (depends on the contribution time. (Earlier engagement means a better rate)
• As more DAY is owned by the address, as more additional DAY Token will be mined and credited to it (Similar to a bank account)
• Everyone can buy, hold and sell DAY tokens, but only if the owner is also a TimeMInt address, the TOKEN will self-mine this way.
• The interest rate is halved every 88 days and will eventually be useless at last (interest rate after about 2 years is > 0.004%)
• A TimeMint right can’t be resold, unless it has at least 8888 DAY tokens on this ETH address. (But you can always trade the DAY Token)
I have no doubt that all 3,333 accounts will be sold. Although the pre-contribution rather had a sluggish start, it dawns more and more contributors, what could go in there. Meanwhile, additional ETHs were pushed up on many of the pre-contribution accounts now. And the number of pre-registrations for the official contribution on Aug 18 2017 is already overbooked, AFAIK.
I assume that the average amount of a contribution is about 5 ETH (rather less likely, because many investments will be just 1 ETH). This means that the initial launch is approximately 400000 (3333 * 5 * 24) DAY tokens. Mined and issued to the TimeMint addresses (DAYZERO). This is a very low number in comparison to other ICOs.
All this facts lead to a dynamic interactions and raise the question, if they can balance to each other. I'm really looking forward to see, what will happen after the DAYZERO.
So let’s start a little brain storming:
At the beginning, these groups face off:
- Group “Flippers”: The ones who follow flipping model and need to wait to sell their DAYs for much more than $12.50.
- Group “Miners”: Those who have one of the 3,333 TimeMInt addresses, and wants to add much more DAY to their ETH address. But of course, only for a cheaper price than the $12.50 paid during the ICO
- Group “Traders”: The rest of the traders (without TimeMInt address). Probably no factor during the first weeks, anyway
For the first week, the “Flippers” do not have a selling pressure (they can enjoy the mining while waiting for a good price to sell). “Miners” may be under pressure from the first day on, because the time to halving the interest rate is ticking. “Traders” don’t care yet.
These two groups confront now, but with a huge gap between ASK and BID and loading up the situation with more tension every day.
What can happen now?
Scenario 1: Course explosion (all groups win, at least for a while) The Group “Miner” becomes greedy and wants to be sure to fill up their accounts with DAYs. They especially want to reach the 8888 DAY balance, so that the TimeMint account can be resold.
- That will serve the group “Flipper” and the token price soars to the top.
o This will awake the group “Trader” in this game, which now wants to get a chunk of the cake.
This in turn deprives tokens from the “Miners” and results in a lower amount of total DAY token in final.
• This, on the other hand, has a positive affect to the value of a single DAY token. . - The spiral is initiated and takes its course...
Scenario 2: stalemate (whoever moves first has lost) The price is balanced out at roughly $12, because opposite interests keep balanced. The “Traders” (those without TimeMint addresses), are not interested in the token, because price does not move and the volume is very low. The only parties are “Mines” and “Flippers”, staring to the order book like a rabbit fixated by a snake. As longer they stare the more tension rises up to bursting. While waiting, the “Miners” devalue their own tokens, due increasing the expected final number token.
The question is which group first loses patience and the whole thing to the explosion or implosion. A few strike trades could be the spark to trigger a chain reaction. It is uncertain which scenario takes in place then.
Scenario 3: token prices plunges (and all will loose) Frankly, I cannot imagine how THIS may be possible. Who wants to realize unnecessary loss if there is no selling pressure and the time is (still) working for both groups? Of course there is always anyone who needs short term liquidity, but this applies to both groups and should be balanced. If all wait too long, the price start slowly but surely to sink, just because, the total token amount is rising continuously.
Of course, there are many other possible scenarios. If - why ever -, the “Traders” (those without TimeMint addresses) are interested from the outset and take away a lot of DAYs token from the “Miners, it will be even more complex. Because of the shortage, it may also lead in a price rise, but different from scenario 1 - driven by other factors and preconditions. If it comes that the “Miners” do not find no additional (affordable) DAYs anymore, they
may decide to backing out. The market will be flooded with DAYs and starts a massive collapse happens. When the price has come down to a given level, a few “Flippers” may now remember, that they have still an empty TimeMint address, which can now filled up again with cheap DAYs to mine more. And so another nice cycle starts…
Here, a 7-headed Hydra bites permanently crosswise into her 7 tails. This DAY stuff has huge potential with its self-reinforcing tendencies. Honestly, I am full of anticipation to witness the spectacle.
It's all regardless about the planned use of the DAY token and the vision of ChronoLogic. If unexpectedly early impulses come from this part , there will be even more firework to enjoy.
BTW, that is of course not a recommendation for or against the ChronoLogic Project and its ICO. I’m just so fascinated about the concept. It's probably anyway too late to become one of the firecracker.
If I’m wrong, it will be no more than a fart. What do you think?
Next-Level
Don't judge my english
