Where will be the next bitcoin-like bubble?

[giffen]

So, with bitcoin trading near $4300 now its return rate on investment (considering you bought it somewhere in 2010 for $0.01) equals 43 000 000 %. Whether it can be considered a bubble or not remains more of a philosophical question, but it is obvious that we will not observe the similar growth rate in bitcoin in the coming years. (Personally I think that bitcoin is way overpriced due to a sudden public and regulative interest, but it does not mean we cannot make money on it )

Which brings the question about other opportunities to get this kind of return. I suppose these opportunities should be yet unknown to general public like bitcoin was in 2010. You can think about altcoins/ICO's, but many altcoins are just copies of bitcoin in one way or another, their prices are highly correlated with bitcoin only with higher beta(more volatile), and a lot of people already know about them and invest in them, which limits their potential growth.

Considering ICO, personally, I am very pessimistic about them now. I think that the majority of current ICOs are merely scams, and because of all this  ICO-hype you are very unlikely to determine the project which will become the next Google (if there is any at all). Anyway, the point is that even with ICOs you will hardly earn the equivalent return of bitcoin in 2010-2017 due to the market becoming more effective and regulated and as a result less volatile.

So in order to get this kind of excessive return we need to identify the next likely bubble, buy into it and wait until it becomes famous like the bitcoin. Do you think such instruments exist in blockchain world? Or you would bet on other tech sectors?
 

  

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[omonuyak]

Bitcoin is not yet in the bubble! Though we have seeing significant growth based on your analysis. We expect in years to come to see bitcoin above $500,000. Some one has said on this forum that " when bitcoin is in the bubble we may see one satoshi to be equal one dollar" Remember op bitcoin has not gone mainstream yet, if we go mainstream we may see bitcoin been accepted in all the social media and online or offline stores.

[HeRetiK]

While I personally doubt that BTC will ever reach close to USD 500k,- I'm also convinced that there's still enough room for BTC to grow and outperform most traditional assets. I'd even argue that current BTC valuations are not as overpriced as the may seem -- it's rather that BTC was highly undervalued the last few years, due to a lot of people shying away from the risk after the bubble(s) of 2013.

I do concur with your analysis of alt coins and ICOs though. Short term there was money to be made, but I think that by now the cow has already been milked to death.

Either way, I don't think we'll see a phenomena such as BTC any time soon. It was birth of a whole new asset class. That's why it grew the way it did, that's why it will continue to grow and that's why I doubt we'll see anything like it for years to come.

[BitcoinHodler]

Whether it can be considered a bubble or not remains more of a philosophical question, but it is obvious that we will not observe the similar growth rate in bitcoin in the coming years.

first you need to make up your mind, it is either a bubble or a growth. it can not be both and it is pretty obvious which one it is. there is nothing "philosophical" about it!

Which brings the question about other opportunities to get this kind of return. I suppose these opportunities should be yet unknown to general public like bitcoin was in 2010.

that is the biggest mistake that people make and it is what keeps altcoin market mostly alive. people hope for a 2009 bitcoin to be repeated in an altcoin but they fail to use their brains!

the reason why bitcoin is rising is because it offers something useful. and because of that, the demand for it grows and with it the price rises too. sometimes it enters bubbles which are not as big as you think, they are small and they correct right after they are formed.

So in order to get this kind of excessive return we need to identify the next likely bubble, buy into it and wait until it becomes famous like the bitcoin. Do you think such instruments exist in blockchain world? Or you would bet on other tech sectors?

don't hold your breath.
if you want profit then just look for the altcoins that are getting hyped and then pumped. invest in them before or in the start of their pumps and get out of them just as fast.

[Insanerman]

Bitcoin is not yet in the bubble! Though we have seeing significant growth based on your analysis. We expect in years to come to see bitcoin above $500,000. Some one has said on this forum that " when bitcoin is in the bubble we may see one satoshi to be equal one dollar" Remember op bitcoin has not gone mainstream yet, if we go mainstream we may see bitcoin been accepted in all the social media and online or offline stores.

That's a possibility. There are conflicting news about the bitcoin bubble but I do believe its not. If its a bubble, then it drop already but its not. It continues to grow which in my opinion it has a demand. These demand creates the price appreciation of this bitcoin as more people consider bitcoin as an asset rather than as a currency.

[iram1011]

I don't see any other option than cryptocurrencies which could give 430000x profit in 7 years. There might be some altcoins which may have this potential but just like Bitcoin in 2010, you would be skeptical of it. You won't trust it. Nobody was sure of the success of Bitcoin in 2010. Those initial investors somehow blindly bet on it. So will be the case of any altcoin that can give unpredictable return in 7 years.

Find an altcoin for your blind bet! It is just a game of choosing right coin at right time.

[dbc23]

That kind of monstorous gain simply from buying and holding is likely not going to happen again.  It's clearly still possible to get "lucky" and hit 1000x level gains in rare situations and this year has had more than a few 100x opportunities. 

Personally I only have 3 holdings I consider LONG term (cold wallet, planning to leave alone for years.  Everything else I see as mid-term (within the year) or short-term (riding daily high/low).

I highly suspect the true bubble will burst as many of this years biggest ICOs are slowly unable to deliver on their promises and devalue substantially leaving many spec investors out money.  If/when that happens a lot of the easy money flowing in will dry up forcing sell-offs without the predatory buy-in recoupment we've been seeing this year.

It'll be much like the dotcom burst when the unicorn companies all started filing for bankruptcy.  A good lesson there though is even with NASDAQ being shredded in the late 90s a good number of companies survived and thrived and some savvy investors still did VERY well in tech over the following decade. 

[giffen]

Bitcoin is not yet in the bubble! Though we have seeing significant growth based on your analysis. We expect in years to come to see bitcoin above $500,000. Some one has said on this forum that " when bitcoin is in the bubble we may see one satoshi to be equal one dollar" Remember op bitcoin has not gone mainstream yet, if we go mainstream we may see bitcoin been accepted in all the social media and online or offline stores.

Whether it can be considered a bubble or not remains more of a philosophical question, but it is obvious that we will not observe the similar growth rate in bitcoin in the coming years.

first you need to make up your mind, it is either a bubble or a growth. it can not be both and it is pretty obvious which one it is. there is nothing "philosophical" about it!

Personally I strongly believe that it is a classical example of a bubble, I called it "a philosophical question" just because many of us disagree on this, like you for instance.

I am also puzzled by all these predictions about BTC reaching $500k, $1 mln, etc. Let's just do some simple math. Assuming we have now a total supply of 16,529,587 BTC and this supply remains the same when the price of one BTC hits 500 000USD, the whole market capitalization will be 8 264 793 500 000 USD. Obviously it will be much higher because the BTC supply volume will rise. If you take the maximum amount possible of 21 mln BTC priced at 500000 USD this will make the market cap of 10 500 000 000 000 USD. What is 10.5 trillion USD in real life? It almost equals the whole size of the US economy($18.6 tn). And it is a bit larger than the whole Chineese bond market ($9.4 tn) which is one of the largest markets in the world consisting of hundreds of instruments. 
Well, I can imagine the whole crypto market comprised of thousands of cryptocurrencies reaching the capitalization of the third largest bond market in the world. But only one instrument getting there? No, this is extremely unlikely.

That kind of monstorous gain simply from buying and holding is likely not going to happen again.  It's clearly still possible to get "lucky" and hit 1000x level gains in rare situations and this year has had more than a few 100x opportunities. 

Personally I only have 3 holdings I consider LONG term (cold wallet, planning to leave alone for years.  Everything else I see as mid-term (within the year) or short-term (riding daily high/low).

I highly suspect the true bubble will burst as many of this years biggest ICOs are slowly unable to deliver on their promises and devalue substantially leaving many spec investors out money.  If/when that happens a lot of the easy money flowing in will dry up forcing sell-offs without the predatory buy-in recoupment we've been seeing this year.

It'll be much like the dotcom burst when the unicorn companies all started filing for bankruptcy.  A good lesson there though is even with NASDAQ being shredded in the late 90s a good number of companies survived and thrived and some savvy investors still did VERY well in tech over the following decade. 

This is a good point about Nasdaq! It rose from 100 points in 1971 to 3940 points in 1999 before the crash. So, it took Nasdaq 29 years to grow 39x times. Compare this to 430000x in 7 years 

I don't see any other option than cryptocurrencies which could give 430000x profit in 7 years. There might be some altcoins which may have this potential but just like Bitcoin in 2010, you would be skeptical of it. You won't trust it. Nobody was sure of the success of Bitcoin in 2010. Those initial investors somehow blindly bet on it. So will be the case of any altcoin that can give unpredictable return in 7 years.

Find an altcoin for your blind bet! It is just a game of choosing right coin at right time.

This is true about being sceptical. However I think many of us didn't even know about Bitcoin in 2009-2010 and this is the problem. I think that it would be great to discuss things which we are sceptical about now, who knows maybe we will stumble across the next bitcoin somehow)

[MissionPhailed]

Bitcoin could be in a speculative bubble right now but prices in the future might go much, much higher eventually. Think about it; 99% of humanity isn't active within the world of cryptocurrencies. Though the rise of Bitcoin (and market cap of crypto as a whole btw) is tremendous this year, it might get utterly dwarfed when crypto really gets picked up among the general public.

[mr. Dutch]

In the U.S., there are 13.6 million people with $1 million or more in wealth. So we are not in a bubble yet,,, they did not buy in yet.

[LuanX3]

So, with bitcoin trading near $4300 now its return rate on investment (considering you bought it somewhere in 2010 for $0.01) equals 43 000 000 %. Whether it can be considered a bubble or not remains more of a philosophical question, but it is obvious that we will not observe the similar growth rate in bitcoin in the coming years. (Personally I think that bitcoin is way overpriced due to a sudden public and regulative interest, but it does not mean we cannot make money on it )

Which brings the question about other opportunities to get this kind of return. I suppose these opportunities should be yet unknown to general public like bitcoin was in 2010. You can think about altcoins/ICO's, but many altcoins are just copies of bitcoin in one way or another, their prices are highly correlated with bitcoin only with higher beta(more volatile), and a lot of people already know about them and invest in them, which limits their potential growth.

Considering ICO, personally, I am very pessimistic about them now. I think that the majority of current ICOs are merely scams, and because of all this  ICO-hype you are very unlikely to determine the project which will become the next Google (if there is any at all). Anyway, the point is that even with ICOs you will hardly earn the equivalent return of bitcoin in 2010-2017 due to the market becoming more effective and regulated and as a result less volatile.

So in order to get this kind of excessive return we need to identify the next likely bubble, buy into it and wait until it becomes famous like the bitcoin. Do you think such instruments exist in blockchain world? Or you would bet on other tech sectors?
 

  

How do you think it is overpriced? If it was then a lot of people would have sold their bitcoins already. Then the fact that bitcoins just keeps on getting more popular and prices keeps on beating its own all time high every time it pumps, I don't think thousands of people are wrong. Then also take into consideration the supply and demand for bitcoins. It doesn't have a way to increase supply but the demand is always increasing every day.

[Ewinsane]

Bitcoin is not yet in the bubble! Though we have seeing significant growth based on your analysis. We expect in years to come to see bitcoin above $500,000. Some one has said on this forum that " when bitcoin is in the bubble we may see one satoshi to be equal one dollar" Remember op bitcoin has not gone mainstream yet, if we go mainstream we may see bitcoin been accepted in all the social media and online or offline stores.

That's a possibility. There are conflicting news about the bitcoin bubble but I do believe its not. If its a bubble, then it drop already but its not. It continues to grow which in my opinion it has a demand. These demand creates the price appreciation of this bitcoin as more people consider bitcoin as an asset rather than as a currency.

Yes bitcoin story is not bubble. If it would be a bubble then it might be around $1000 at max. It got rose then fell back again. You what we all are seeing is the up rise is more significant than little downs price chart is telling us. You can see a regular up with little downfalls but you can’t say this is bubble.

[chesegrinder]

i think 4300$ is not overprice bitcoin price way but 2 to 3 years ago is invaluable, but right know it is just the new start that bitcoin will going to gain more popularity and going to have more users. think about if bitcoin will be accepted in many store [online or offline] many travel agencies and transport vehicle accept it, the value of bitcion will increase. well we are not in a bubble yet we are millions living in this world but only few are active using crytocurrency.

about your analysis regarding ICO, i agree that there are more ICO right now that exist and become scam, it is hard to tell where ICO are real solving and developing there projects. but ICO is one good way to have a short term investment.

[HeRetiK]

Bitcoin could be in a speculative bubble right now but prices in the future might go much, much higher eventually. Think about it; 99% of humanity isn't active within the world of cryptocurrencies. Though the rise of Bitcoin (and market cap of crypto as a whole btw) is tremendous this year, it might get utterly dwarfed when crypto really gets picked up among the general public.

That's the thing, we're not even close to mainstream adoption and institutional investors. Sure, a lot of this potential is already priced in, but once the potential becomes reality (if it becomes reality) it will be like nothing we've ever seen before. Or rather, it will be exactly like the growth we've experienced before, just on a much grander scale.

[amacar2]

I don't think we can call bitcoin a bubble because it has real life use cases and still under priced if we consider its future applications. Bitcoin is revolution in financial sector and personal privacy rather than another stock/assets which was overpriced just because of high hopes and hype over it.

[surix]

It's happening everywhere but most of them just not accessible to the normal investors.

Look at internet bubble or .com bubble, most of the early investors are institutional ones.

Being a bubble and open to normal investors can be very dangerous as greediness will eat everyone's mind.

[ImHash]

Noobs you all were asleep all this time, you never realized the true potential and the hidden power locked inside this beast, there was never any bubble, you just missed the opportunity to buy when price was very low and now you are pissed, therefore you are seeing bubbles while what I see are muscles and bones supporting it every step of the road, a dangerous road that is. what would you say when price increases to $9000+ you'd be at the same spot as you are right now, doubting.

[audaciousbeing]

In the U.S., there are 13.6 million people with $1 million or more in wealth. So we are not in a bubble yet,,, they did not buy in yet.

In addition to that, USA is just one country in the whole world and with the massive population of the world, couple with advancement in technology and the quest for freedom by the teeming large population of the youth, then all I can say is that, this is just the beginning of a new thing that we ourselves will be surprised on the amount of impossibilities that would be possible with bitcoin.