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Author Topic: When do you expect and when do you want BTC to go over 30 bucks again?  (Read 4953 times)
Nagle
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June 23, 2011, 07:08:13 PM
 #21


Current market depth (USD, TradeHill)

The market right now has some depth to it, with a good supply of buyers and sellers, so the current price, about $15, is what a Bitcoin is worth right now.

With Mt. Gox offline, things have been relatively stable. If Mt. Gox shows high volatility while Tradehill does not, that's an indication that something funny is going on over at Mt. Gox. Normally, a larger market is less volatile.
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June 23, 2011, 07:28:08 PM
 #22


To be honest, I don't think the BTC price will ever go over 30 again. Never ever.

I think you would be in the mineority there.  Grin
Honestly mineority, if you believe bitcoin could be succesfull with a price below 30 you dont understand bitcoin. I would say, either bitcoin goes to the hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands, or bitcoin dies. Its all about market size. $30 means a maximum of 180 million dollars of total value. With such a market size, bitcoin would not be a currency, but a rarity, a collectors item.
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June 23, 2011, 07:51:45 PM
 #23

$180 MM would be current market value. Final market value at $30:1BTC would be $630 MM - or enough to satisfy 1 fiscal quarter of iTunes sales.

Bitcoin needs a final market value of about $21 Trillion to be viable as a world currency and $210 Trillion would be a lot better.

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andes
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June 23, 2011, 08:02:35 PM
 #24

$180 MM would be current market value. Final market value at $30:1BTC would be $630 MM - or enough to satisfy 1 fiscal quarter of iTunes sales.

Bitcoin needs a final market value of about $21 Trillion to be viable as a world currency and $210 Trillion would be a lot better.

Right!

One thing though, dont forget that (hopefully) bitcoin will be just one of many concurrent free market currencies in the world. Many people think in terms of only one currency, which is nor realistic, nor desirable.
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June 23, 2011, 08:05:13 PM
 #25

This is why the Economics board is a joke... this thread..
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June 23, 2011, 08:08:53 PM
 #26

.
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June 23, 2011, 08:19:27 PM
 #27


Current market depth (USD, TradeHill)

The market right now has some depth to it, with a good supply of buyers and sellers, so the current price, about $15, is what a Bitcoin is worth right now.

With Mt. Gox offline, things have been relatively stable. If Mt. Gox shows high volatility while Tradehill does not, that's an indication that something funny is going on over at Mt. Gox. Normally, a larger market is less volatile.

Mt. Gox is where most of the money and coins are, Tradehill has a history of following Gox and so now it is sleeping.


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June 23, 2011, 08:22:08 PM
 #28

When do you expect and when do you want BTC to go over 30 bucks again?

When does not have to be a date, when can be a state of mind:

Bear-Market(s) 101: Learn From History
  • When the vast majority think it will take years, or never, to see $30 or even $25 again,
  • When there is a visible flow of threads asking how soon BTC will fall back under $1 (or $5) again,
  • When every last weak-handed panicky miner is selling their hardware for reduced rates to "stronger-hands",
  • When the last 4 or 5 slow to develop rallies have died out early and the panic-selling starts again,
  • When the blood is flowing and optimism is hard to find,

Then the market will be quite for a while, a new rally will start form near the lows, and the price will quickly shoot up to $30.  


EDIT: We could re-test the highs soon, but at some point a slow, boring bear market will test your patience.

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Nagle
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June 23, 2011, 08:37:19 PM
 #29

$180 MM would be current market value. Final market value at $30:1BTC would be $630 MM - or enough to satisfy 1 fiscal quarter of iTunes sales.

Bitcoin needs a final market value of about $21 Trillion to be viable as a world currency and $210 Trillion would be a lot better.

That's why Bitcoin probably isn't going to work. It has to deflate way too much to be usable on a large scale.

The launch was botched. About a quarter of the Bitcoins that can ever be generated are already generated. That fraction should be much, much smaller at this early point.
andes
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June 23, 2011, 08:41:09 PM
 #30

$180 MM would be current market value. Final market value at $30:1BTC would be $630 MM - or enough to satisfy 1 fiscal quarter of iTunes sales.
Bitcoin needs a final market value of about $21 Trillion to be viable as a world currency and $210 Trillion would be a lot better.
That's why Bitcoin probably isn't going to work. It has to deflate way too much to be usable on a large scale.

Nah.. The deveolpers say Bitcoin can be upgraded to have more decimal places, so this would not be a problem. And if bitcoin is insuficient, paralell blockchains can be created (Bitcoin 1, 2, 3).
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June 23, 2011, 09:02:25 PM
 #31

This thread is bullish what ever about the market!
Kman54
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June 23, 2011, 09:33:00 PM
 #32

oh I think you're going to have to wait for it to hit $30 again. No doubt its going for a nose dive when Mtgox opens, there will be lots of people looking for the exit hatch. I wouldn't be surprised if we level out around $9-$10 and stay within a few dollars of that for a good while.

its going to be interested over the next few days though!
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June 24, 2011, 03:47:25 AM
 #33

$180 MM would be current market value. Final market value at $30:1BTC would be $630 MM - or enough to satisfy 1 fiscal quarter of iTunes sales.
Bitcoin needs a final market value of about $21 Trillion to be viable as a world currency and $210 Trillion would be a lot better.
That's why Bitcoin probably isn't going to work. It has to deflate way too much to be usable on a large scale.
Nah.. The deveolpers say Bitcoin can be upgraded to have more decimal places, so this would not be a problem. And if bitcoin is insuficient, paralell blockchains can be created (Bitcoin 1, 2, 3).

Yes, we can add more decimals, but we already have eight. One might guess Satoshi was aiming precisely for a $21 trillion (short count) market cap.

21 000 000 . 000 000 00 potential total number of bitcoins

21 000 000 000 000 . 00 number of microbitcoins ($1/microbitcoin parity) for a total of 21 trillion in circulation, with two decimal micro-cents.

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June 24, 2011, 04:12:22 AM
 #34


There are Bicoins as well as Dollars stuck in Mt. Gox. For many of those who wish to move their funds out it will be cheaper and faster to get them out if they are converted to Bitcoin first, which would cause the price to increase. If they already have the bulk of their funds in Bitcoin and move it out it will tend to reduce the amount of available Bitcoin compared to Dollars and cause the price to increase. Those that panic sell their BTC will be kicking themselves for all the money they lost.

The only way the price does not increase is that  there is no mass exodus. If there is a mass exodus the price will most certainly increase. However, It is possible that there could be a big correction after a run-up, the $1000 withdrawal limit will keep a lot of funds in the exchange in any case. Even after withdrawing a portion of their funds some will realize there are instant profits to be made even if they initially cancelled all of their orders. I expect there will be some pretty big gyrations for a couple of days... And then there is the weekend...

Fun stuff.

Unless people have lost confidence in bitcoins, in which case they will sell all their frozen coins and the price will plummet. We can speculate, but won't know until Mt. Gox reopens.
Nagle
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June 24, 2011, 04:35:34 AM
 #35

Meanwhile, over at Tradehill, another nice boring day. Price still around $15, volume increasing, market depth and spread decreasing. That's the way a currency is supposed to work. 
mineority
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June 24, 2011, 01:39:45 PM
 #36


To be honest, I don't think the BTC price will ever go over 30 again. Never ever.

I think you would be in the mineority there.  Grin
Honestly mineority, if you believe bitcoin could be succesfull with a price below 30 you dont understand bitcoin.

I didn't say that. In fact, my point is based on the opposite belief.

Maybe the second or third approach for a p2p currenty will be successfull, but not this one.

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June 24, 2011, 02:14:39 PM
 #37

@chodpaba

I'm not quite sure whether I got everything right in your post.

There are Bicoins as well as Dollars stuck in Mt. Gox. For many of those who wish to move their funds out it will be cheaper and faster to get them out if they are converted to Bitcoin first, which would cause the price to increase.
Why couldn't they just demand their dollars back?

I don't get why they should convert Dollars to BTC and then directly sell the BTC to get dollars out again. And especially I don't get why this should drive the price up if everyobody is trying to sell their freshly converted BTC.


If they already have the bulk of their funds in Bitcoin and move it out it will tend to reduce the amount of available Bitcoin compared to Dollars and cause the price to increase.
Same goes here.

Why should the price increase if everyone is cashing out their Bitcoins?


Or are you referring to a simple withdrawal in both cases? Aka, convert to BTC and immediately send all BTC to their wallet?

Don't you see a chance of people wanting to fire-sale all their BTC because they lost their confidence in the whole system, leading towards a crash? (I think it's more probable that they only lost confidence in MtGox rather than BTC itself, though)

Even after withdrawing a portion of their funds some will realize there are instant profits to be made even if they initially cancelled all of their orders.
What kinds of profits are you speaking about here? The ones when people mass-withdraw and the remaining notice the rocketing price?



I expect there will be some pretty big gyrations for a couple of days... And then there is the weekend...

Fun stuff.
I'm quite new to all this, but eager to learn. In what way does the weekend come into play?

Agreeing with the gyrations, though Wink

Best regards
teamdren
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June 24, 2011, 02:17:17 PM
 #38

This is why the Economics board is a joke... this thread..

Actually this thread is composed of a greater than normal amount of people who actually have at least the foggiest idea of what currency is.

Most internet rhetoric you see about bitcoin takes a very pop-culture POV - the same people who have no idea what really makes bitcoin useful and what makes it command a high price in terms of goods and services or even fiat currencies like USD, are the ones who thought US real estate was a good investment in 2005.  These people do not understand what they're talking about.

I've seen at least two posts in this thread that explicitly show that the authors understand what currency is and have at least a marginal idea of why bitcoin is what it is today.

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June 24, 2011, 07:32:28 PM
 #39

Once Mt. Gox opens, a lot of people will either sell their bitcoins, cashout, or make a withdrawal transfer. We're looking at a 50% withdrawal rate on the first day of opening. And then when that happens, you can forget the 30 bucks per share (btc). The result of too many people selling coins will be deflate bitcoin selling price. Not to mention the 56% rise of difficulty.

Let's rock!


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imperi
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June 24, 2011, 07:44:33 PM
 #40

Once Mt. Gox opens, a lot of people will either sell their bitcoins, cashout, or make a withdrawal transfer. We're looking at a 50% withdrawal rate on the first day of opening. And then when that happens, you can forget the 30 bucks per share (btc). The result of too many people selling coins will be deflate bitcoin selling price. Not to mention the 56% rise of difficulty.

Let's rock!



I feel kind of bad for you... there is no way you could compete with others in this market with such faulty logic. I would advise you to only invest for the long term, and stay away from short-term trading.
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