whirlpool
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Activity: 106
Merit: 10
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June 27, 2013, 08:39:44 AM |
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You guys might want to look into the Spain U20 vs France U20 game as well. Both teams are averaging well above 3 goals a game (Spain at 3.85 and France at 3.20).
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thisisgil
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June 27, 2013, 08:55:44 AM |
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I've had a horrible feeling that I've screwed up with the under/over soccer "pseudo-arbs".
If you have the bet on over 3 and under 2, for example, there are 4 likely outcomes:
Over 3 goals total - you win and profit overall
Under 2 goals total - you win and profit overall
3 goals total - you push the over and lose the under, dropping one unit
2 goals total - you push the under and lose the over, dropping one unit.
I think because I was tired last night, I didn't see the two push scenarios, and thought there were only one. This makes the proposition a little bit more risky.
HOWEVER - there are still some bets like this that offer good value: Anything where you can get a 0.5 difference on the over / under should work out well. For example:
Swansea City V Manchester United:
Under 2.5 2.13/+113
Over 3 2.25/+125
Outcomes for an equal unit on both of those:
Less than 3 goals, win under bet and profit overall
More than 3 goals, win over bet and profit overall
3 goals total - push over bet, lose under bet, overall loss = 1 unit.
So... I'm going to continue looking for these, but I'm going to try and just identify the 0.5 difference over/unders, because that bet means you only have to risk one push rather than two...
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Mother of no children. Part-time idiot. Full-time douche.
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thisisgil
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June 27, 2013, 09:17:53 AM |
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For these two picks, put an equal unit on both, should profit unless the total score is 3.
Spain v Italy
Over 3 2.26/+126
Under 2.5 2.14/+114
Nigeria U20 v Korea Republic U20
Over 3 2.45/+145
Under 2.5 2.02/+102
For these picks, you profit on everything except a total score of 2:
Jaro v MyPa
Over 2.5 2.24/+124
Under 2 2.29/+129
Lahti v Inter Turku
Over 2.5 2.32/+132
Under 2 2.18/+118
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Mother of no children. Part-time idiot. Full-time douche.
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Kake
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 44
Merit: 0
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June 27, 2013, 09:34:08 AM |
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I've had a horrible feeling that I've screwed up with the under/over soccer "pseudo-arbs".
If you have the bet on over 3 and under 2, for example, there are 4 likely outcomes:
Over 3 goals total - you win and profit overall
Under 2 goals total - you win and profit overall
3 goals total - you push the over and lose the under, dropping one unit
2 goals total - you push the under and lose the over, dropping one unit.
I think because I was tired last night, I didn't see the two push scenarios, and thought there were only one. This makes the proposition a little bit more risky.
HOWEVER - there are still some bets like this that offer good value: Anything where you can get a 0.5 difference on the over / under should work out well. For example:
Swansea City V Manchester United:
Under 2.5 2.13/+113
Over 3 2.25/+125
Outcomes for an equal unit on both of those:
Less than 3 goals, win under bet and profit overall
More than 3 goals, win over bet and profit overall
3 goals total - push over bet, lose under bet, overall loss = 1 unit.
So... I'm going to continue looking for these, but I'm going to try and just identify the 0.5 difference over/unders, because that bet means you only have to risk one push rather than two...
Yeah, betting on both over and under is kinda risky. In the Swansea City vs Manchester United scenario, you are risking 1 unit for a profit of 0.13 or 0.25. |
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stayeduptolate (OP)
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June 27, 2013, 03:11:16 PM |
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ok lets try this!
Soccer IFK Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki Over 3 18 minutes from now 2.46 / +146 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.0146
Soccer IFK Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki Under 2 18 minutes from now 3.00 / +200 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.02
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stayeduptolate (OP)
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June 27, 2013, 03:13:50 PM |
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I've had a horrible feeling that I've screwed up with the under/over soccer "pseudo-arbs".
If you have the bet on over 3 and under 2, for example, there are 4 likely outcomes:
Over 3 goals total - you win and profit overall
Under 2 goals total - you win and profit overall
3 goals total - you push the over and lose the under, dropping one unit
2 goals total - you push the under and lose the over, dropping one unit.
I think because I was tired last night, I didn't see the two push scenarios, and thought there were only one. This makes the proposition a little bit more risky.
HOWEVER - there are still some bets like this that offer good value: Anything where you can get a 0.5 difference on the over / under should work out well. For example:
Swansea City V Manchester United:
Under 2.5 2.13/+113
Over 3 2.25/+125
Outcomes for an equal unit on both of those:
Less than 3 goals, win under bet and profit overall
More than 3 goals, win over bet and profit overall
3 goals total - push over bet, lose under bet, overall loss = 1 unit.
So... I'm going to continue looking for these, but I'm going to try and just identify the 0.5 difference over/unders, because that bet means you only have to risk one push rather than two...
ahh yes I see looks like I need 1 or 4 goals now lol |
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thisisgil
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June 27, 2013, 04:08:47 PM |
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Tennis starting in the next hour:
B. Reynolds is 33.83/+3283 to beat Djorkovic!
Surely worth a 0.1btc on it?
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Mother of no children. Part-time idiot. Full-time douche.
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stayeduptolate (OP)
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June 27, 2013, 04:34:58 PM |
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Tennis starting in the next hour:
B. Reynolds is 33.83/+3283 to beat Djorkovic!
Surely worth a 0.1btc on it?
the way its going cant hurt btw need 2 goals in that soccer game 45 min left ! |
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thisisgil
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June 27, 2013, 05:12:42 PM |
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the way its going cant hurt btw need 2 goals in that soccer game 45 min left !
22 minutes and you need a goal. I think you'll be okay. |
Mother of no children. Part-time idiot. Full-time douche.
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thisisgil
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June 27, 2013, 05:29:18 PM |
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4-0 Grats!  |
Mother of no children. Part-time idiot. Full-time douche.
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stayeduptolate (OP)
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June 27, 2013, 05:39:16 PM |
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4-0 Grats! it worked bro thanks for pointing that out to me! |
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thisisgil
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June 27, 2013, 05:54:58 PM |
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it worked bro thanks for pointing that out to me!
Your evening might get better - Reynolds currently holding his own against Djokovic and only lost the first set on tie-break... |
Mother of no children. Part-time idiot. Full-time douche.
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thisisgil
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June 27, 2013, 06:00:16 PM |
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Hrrrm... I think something's up on bitbook. Looking at my outstanding bets:
Soccer
Spain U20 1
France U20 0
Under 2.5 59 minutes ago 1.98 / -102.1
I'm playing the over/unders here, and there's no way I would have thrown on the under 2.5 at 1.98, because it has to be 2.00+ to make a profit on the under. Seems to me that my odds have changed after I placed the bet?
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Mother of no children. Part-time idiot. Full-time douche.
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stayeduptolate (OP)
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June 27, 2013, 06:30:22 PM |
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Hrrrm... I think something's up on bitbook. Looking at my outstanding bets:
Soccer
Spain U20 1
France U20 0
Under 2.5 59 minutes ago 1.98 / -102.1
I'm playing the over/unders here, and there's no way I would have thrown on the under 2.5 at 1.98, because it has to be 2.00+ to make a profit on the under. Seems to me that my odds have changed after I placed the bet?
proley watching this thread lmao |
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KingOfSports
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June 27, 2013, 06:44:53 PM |
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Hrrrm... I think something's up on bitbook. Looking at my outstanding bets:
Soccer
Spain U20 1
France U20 0
Under 2.5 59 minutes ago 1.98 / -102.1
I'm playing the over/unders here, and there's no way I would have thrown on the under 2.5 at 1.98, because it has to be 2.00+ to make a profit on the under. Seems to me that my odds have changed after I placed the bet?
Email bitbook.biz or PM them, if they changed the line on you AFTER you placed a bet and do not fix it or supply a good reason please PM me as I would like to know about it. Line changing after a bet has been placed is a major no-no in the sports betting industry. |
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stayeduptolate (OP)
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June 27, 2013, 09:27:19 PM |
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Hrrrm... I think something's up on bitbook. Looking at my outstanding bets:
Soccer
Spain U20 1
France U20 0
Under 2.5 59 minutes ago 1.98 / -102.1
I'm playing the over/unders here, and there's no way I would have thrown on the under 2.5 at 1.98, because it has to be 2.00+ to make a profit on the under. Seems to me that my odds have changed after I placed the bet?
Email bitbook.biz or PM them, if they changed the line on you AFTER you placed a bet and do not fix it or supply a good reason please PM me as I would like to know about it. Line changing after a bet has been placed is a major no-no in the sports betting industry. yes I completely agree with KOS let me know please! |
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stayeduptolate (OP)
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June 27, 2013, 10:11:41 PM |
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bets for 6/28/2013
Soccer Paraguay U20
Greece U20 Over 2.5 16 hours from now 2.25 / +125 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.0125
Soccer Paraguay U20
Greece U20 Under 2 16 hours from now 2.27 / +127 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.0127
Baseball Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks ML 1 day, 1 hour from now 2.35 / +135 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.0135
Baseball Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals ML 1 day, 1 hour from now 1.77 / -129.9 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.0077
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bitbook.biz
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June 28, 2013, 01:07:06 AM |
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Hrrrm... I think something's up on bitbook. Looking at my outstanding bets:
Soccer
Spain U20 1
France U20 0
Under 2.5 59 minutes ago 1.98 / -102.1
I'm playing the over/unders here, and there's no way I would have thrown on the under 2.5 at 1.98, because it has to be 2.00+ to make a profit on the under. Seems to me that my odds have changed after I placed the bet?
Just saw this post, so we looked into the bet. The payout on under 2.5 actually shifted strongly down to 1.81, making 1.98 a really sharp bet (even though it ended up missing). We never change the odds on a bet once it is placed. If you ever have any questions on bets, don't hesitate to PM us! |
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stayeduptolate (OP)
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June 28, 2013, 07:15:53 AM |
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bump for the plays
Soccer Paraguay U20
Greece U20 Over 2.5 16 hours from now 2.25 / +125 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.0125
Soccer Paraguay U20
Greece U20 Under 2 16 hours from now 2.27 / +127 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.0127
Baseball Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks ML 1 day, 1 hour from now 2.35 / +135 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.0135
Baseball Minnesota Twins
Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals ML 1 day, 1 hour from now 1.77 / -129.9 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.0077
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stayeduptolate (OP)
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June 28, 2013, 08:36:13 PM |
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another bet for today!
Baseball Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 2 hours from now 2.08 / +108 ฿ 0.01 ฿ 0.0108
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