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Author Topic: Are Most Cryptocurrencies Doomed to Collapse — because they’re “ICO-issued”?  (Read 3393 times)
goin2mars.
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September 17, 2017, 07:31:14 PM
 #61

It's been five years and I haven't yet witnessed this aggregate market become largely fragmented. What kind of message would be sent if icos could be successfully targeted, regulated and stopped?

Even with the last decline from 2014 to now the market and it's induced segmentations remained quite unified overall with regards to overall price movements.

Even those cryptocurrencies totally devoid of any unique programming have managed to be dragged along with the rest of the tide.

I am first and foremost all for the prevention of icos becoming hypernormalized but with the sec and other financial regulations bearing down on the market, being put up against a new bound in technology, exactly what could they do currently and what ways would they take in which to get it done?

I mean, specifically, where does the sec derive its power from? If its basically policing the entrances, exits and houses under which regulated trade is conducted then they will necessarily be in for a coming adaption.

This technology has the proven ability to entirely displace existing company share distribution (securities as we know them) and exchange methods currently exercised and its medium isn't necessarily secured by a lawful third party designate or human-tended balance sheets. It's secured by a ledger that isn't exactly under their thumbs as nearly as much as a physical construct in which sheets are exchanged.

While I agree that playing nice with existing financial constructs will enhance diffusion into the psychological and physical norms, there is an even gnarlier gap in existing legislation for this market. Effectively - I'm expecting that it really will be 10-20 years before some even begin to catch up wrt to legislation.

What type of statutes limit them past decades? Does it go as far as social security in basically wrecking intergenerational wealth paradigms? Can they demand reparations from a likely well off progeny if there's nobody else to go after?

Also exactly how does any of this fit in with the debt crisis vs hyperinflating dollar if both crypto legislation and hyperinflation occur in 15-20 years?

Personally I don't think the SEC will be able to keep up, but whatever is formed to regulate the likely coming one world currency will. So how would that play out?

me before: goo dot gl/QV7mhF
C0A2A1C4
ham
Hyperme.sh
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September 18, 2017, 12:41:43 AM
Last edit: September 21, 2017, 04:51:21 AM by Hyperme.sh
 #62

The masses want a safe environment that allows them to steal from the system in a politically correct way which makes them feel smug about stealing. The power vacuum has always been that TPTB use the masses to attack their competitors and take control of the system, while feeding the masses the debt collectivist lie. Everyone is always trying to find a way to best game the system. Civilization is a crab bucket clusterfuck of defection.

I was asked via private message if I could refute the above quote.

@CoinCube and I were discussing the issue of cooperation and defection, with my stance being that perhaps decentralization technology supersedes religion because I argue the fundamental driver is economics, not ideology.

I will argue that religion was merely a way that societies were able to organize given the contention between labor and the capitalist as described at the above link. Civilization needed docile compliant fungible (replaceable) laborers and solid marriages to produce more such docile laborers. The superrationality emerged economically from the fact that those who didn't adopt it, were destroyed in failed civilizations. (we may have an analogous outcome coming to those who do not stop adopting ICOs)

However, the maximum division-of-labor and the Knowledge Age is ameliorating that mind programming (i.e. religion) paradigm. IOW, I claim humanity no longer needs to rely on close community, because we have the Internet to coordinate with similarly capable individuals. This highly rewards R strategy reproduction and discourages K strategy, because the offspring will find their randomized place in the soup of Knowledge Age production. Even if one tried to produce K strategy offspring highly trained for Knowledge Age skills, the technology is changing so rapidly that isn't possible to predict what training and skill set they will need. Math may not even be important any more in the future, if A.I. is able to do the math for us.

In terms of a shared set of values, I'm the dinosaur for wishing Indians shared my ancestors' values. The Knowledge Age is a multi-cultural world. Sorry to say, I think @CoinCube is trying to hang on to dying paradigms (both religion and the upper middle class American licensed-by-the-state bourgeoisie ... the future bourgeoisie will be independent of any State, religion, or culture).

The moral decay is a fact of thermodynamics (entropy). Decentralization paradigms are the only way to get sustainable cooperation (and avoid the tragedy-of-the-commons) in the Knowledge Age.

CoinCube, I want you to watch this and pay attention closely:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kwF1MXavYs

Duterte warned George Soros that there is a bounty on his head:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aoStEmNR0Y



There are so many black propaganda against crypto...

Is enforcement of securities regulation propaganda or reality?

You guys don't want the Koolaid greater fool punch bowl to run dry because your greed exceeds your ethics (you're stealing money from greater fools and know damn well that all of the ICOs are scams which produce nothing of merit which have any utility-of-significance other than harvesting greater fools). You're "rational actors" who defect from civilization and prefer a tragedy-of-the-commons. If you had any R&D of merit to fund, you'd care about the long-term legality of your development and thus do it with legal private placements or crowd equity that pay back legally issued tokens earned rather than creating illegal investment securities pump & dump tokens.

All the monetary claims on labor you've accumulated will be useless if civilization collapses into tragedy-of-the-commons Dark Age. I know you do not care and it isn't your concern. That is why we call it a tragedy-of-the-commons. You're "rational". Well rational only if you presume the authorities will not come after you ex post facto (i.e. later) for trading in and promoting MLM scams in defiance of MLM laws in some major countries and illegal investment securities.

The Shit Token is the epitome of daring the regulators to act. These guys think that disclaiming future profit is going to protect them from breaking the law. The economic reality is they are still selling and promoting an illegal investment security, because speculators will speculate on greater fools speculating.

On one hand, ICOs are taking precious market cap from what could be invested into Bitcoin.

They're taking focus away from those who have genuine innovation, yet are totally ignored.

On the other, they bring a whole new dimension to crypto that we have never seen before.

It is just such a shame they are almost always pump-and-dump scams. Undecided

Because those of us who want to build a long-term viable project, do not want to be involved with issuing/trading/promoting illegal MLM scams and illegal investment securities.

Regulators are going to need to send a lot of people to jail to get sanity back into crypto R&D. Yet I suspect TPTB are quite satisfied with allowing crypto to destroy itself with scams and render it's participants in jail after the global economic meltdown 2020ish.

If government doesn't get any profit from it, than it's a SCAM.

Yet regardless of whether securities regulation is dumb or beneficial, the fact is that those developers who are serious will not issue ICOs because of the legal uncertainty, thus predominantly the only ones issuing ICOs are scammers. Even if some few Ethereum, NEO, or Tezos developers might be sincere and skilled, the ones issuing the tokens for them are either well connected with the parasites you despise, else they have a criminal mindset and disregard securities regulation risk not only for themselves but also for all those who trade the tokens and for the future of the token itself.

Thus, iCOs are not helping to achieve any goal of defeating the parasites who control the governments, and instead of providing incrimination fuel for them to take control in the future.

@CoinCube continued to discuss in PMs:

Yes they are. They need to be superrational to succeed and thrive. Until you can solve the prisoners dilemma you have not solved the fundamental problem but are playing with tangential issues.

Decentralization technology does help you solve this but not in the way you argue. It helps solve the problem by introducing transparency which helps the superrational identify each other and coordinate.

Transparency is the fundamental advance of our time as I noted in my table that you dislike.

Cycles of Contention
Cycle #1  Cycle #2  Cycle #3  Cycle #4  Cycle #5  Cycle #6  
Mechanism of Control    Knowledge of Evil  Warlordism    Holy War  Usury  Universal Surveillance    Hedonism  
RulersThe Strong  Despots  God Kings/Monarchs    Capitalists    Oligarchs (NWO)  Decentralized Government    
Life of the Ruled"Nasty, Brutish, Short"    Slaves  Surfs  Debtors  Basic Income Recipients    Knowledge Workers  
Facilitated AdvanceKnowledge of Good    Commerce  Rule of Law  Growth  Transparency  Ascesis  

Ultimately the rational individuals destroy themselves just as rational nations do who abandon superrationality and descend into stealing and power vacuums. The most successful may succeed for a generation or two if they are top dog but they have locked themselves into a prisoners prisoners dilemma which can lead only to their distruction at the hands of someone more powerful or their taking the role of local top dog of a sinking ship eventually finding themselves utterly uncompetitive in an Information Age that rewards cooperation.

You have my permission to post my reply above publically if you wish.

Decentralization is more than just transparency. It's also a means of coordination. Transparency by itself doesn't solve coordination.

I mean decentralized ledger protocols are about coordination, not necessarily even transparency, as anonymity can hide information while still faciliating consensus about ordering and rules of state transitions.

Decentralized ledger protocols enable coordination by taking humans out of the picture. Trust is via algorithm and there is no need to worry about "rational actors" and what they plan to do. Except of course at the level of protocol changes here the human factor comes into play again  thus the drama over hard forks and core developers.

Decentralized ledger protocols enable coordination via  automation and coded protocol and thus serve as an active tool to limit defection. Similarly a police force enables coordination as once you have a good one you can worry less about the "rational actor" who may want to club you over the head for you watch and car as odds are higher those type of folks will get taken off of the street.

What decentralization protocols do not do is solve the "rational actor" problem. They simply minimize it and transfer this problem to the shoulders of whomever controls the ledger at the level of code updates. As these types of folks tend to be a higher quality then average this is a significant improvement..

Transparency is what facilities coordination in situations where the rational actor problem cannot be automated away. Bitcoin is not just a decentralized ledger it is a transparent decentralized ledger. This makes it much more powerful.

Decentralization + Transparency is what allows the hyperrational to identify other rational and hyperrational actors and choose an appropriate strategy based on the nature of the interaction participants.  

Transparency of subjective trust (e.g. in terms personal identity exposure in order to force trust relationships) solves nothing, because it's the political economics power vacuum of democracy clusterfuck, the same damn Dunbar limit tribalism trust relationship scaling problem of politics, and the formation of trust relationships which are inherently flawed (e.g. if I need people to trust me then I need to cowtail to people politically in defiance of my ideological principles and limits degrees-of-freedom and the fundamental universal physics trend to maximum entropy).

Objectivity transparency in terms of an objectively provable adherence to a decentralized protocol is what decentralized ledgers enable.

It's immutable decentralized protocols that offer us the potential of rational win-win coordination without a power vacuum nor "rational actor" defection problem, regardless of transparency. And yes, we need those protocols to be immutable and not "upgradeable" by centralized human control nor political power vacuums.

What the heck do you think I am working on in terms of decentralized ledger technology? You (and some others) dismiss my technological work and in your case because apparently you think so highly of Bitcoin because you don't realize you're incorrect about personal transparency being important. It seems to me you lean towards being a collectivist, leftist leaning, religion idolizing, archaic thinker despite claiming you're a Libertarian. I want to move the world forward. The Internet gave us decentralized immutable protocols for decentralized sharing of data. Now we need to perfect the same for decentralized consensus. Just because I have been so ill, doesn't mean I will necessarily not achieve my goals. I am very determined in spite of having a messed up liver (or what ever the fuck is still wrong with the inside of my gut after apparently curing the gut TB), I do not give up and keep fighting for my body to cure itself.

Note that in the case of for example the Internet upgrade from IPv4 to IPv6, this is a somewhat decentralized adoption process. Btw, IPv6 is an important technology for my decentralized ledger technology because it makes the cost of having 10,000 IP addresses per node plausible.

EDIT: decentralized ledgers are Western civilization’s only hope of avoiding a Dark Age.
Hyperme.sh
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September 18, 2017, 01:19:36 AM
Last edit: September 19, 2017, 08:08:10 AM by Hyperme.sh
 #63

It's been five years and I haven't yet witnessed this aggregate market become largely fragmented. What kind of message would be sent if icos could be successfully targeted, regulated and stopped?

Even with the last decline from 2014 to now the market and it's induced segmentations remained quite unified overall with regards to overall price movements.

Even those cryptocurrencies totally devoid of any unique programming have managed to be dragged along with the rest of the tide.

Because the main use case of cryptocurrency thus far is speculation. Yet another example of useless hype from Open Money without any realistic onboarding paradigm.

Ethereum's entire raison d'être is ICO speculation selling bags to greater fools. There's no adoption for any other use case.

The other use case for cryptocurrency (mostly only BTC) is to move money internationally (legally?) without a bank account, money laundering, and other currently "criminal" activities. Afaik, these are minor compared to the speculation markets.

So when ICO speculation is attacked, Bitcoin's pricing also suffers.

The entire cryptocurrency arena has become a copy of Dogecoin.

I am first and foremost all for the prevention of icos becoming hypernormalized but with the sec and other financial regulations bearing down on the market, being put up against a new bound in technology, exactly what could they do currently and what ways would they take in which to get it done?

I mean, specifically, where does the sec derive its power from? If its basically policing the entrances, exits and houses under which regulated trade is conducted then they will necessarily be in for a coming adaption.

This technology has the proven ability to entirely displace existing company share distribution (securities as we know them) and exchange methods currently exercised and its medium isn't necessarily secured by a lawful third party designate or human-tended balance sheets. It's secured by a ledger that isn't exactly under their thumbs as nearly as much as a physical construct in which sheets are exchanged.

While I agree that playing nice with existing financial constructs will enhance diffusion into the psychological and physical norms, there is an even gnarlier gap in existing legislation for this market. Effectively - I'm expecting that it really will be 10-20 years before some even begin to catch up wrt to legislation.

...

Personally I don't think the SEC will be able to keep up, but whatever is formed to regulate the likely coming one world currency will. So how would that play out?

The authorities can go after the issuers, promoters, exchanges, and even large traders of the unregistered tokens. The weakness of ICOs is that they're centralized, thus existing securities and financial regulation can be applied (not just securities law but also MLM laws, money laundering laws, etc).

So basically it will become illegal to trade these in G20 nations.

Trading could proceed on decentralized exchanges and issuers could flee to rogue nations or employ anonymity, but will the greater fools buy such illicit tokens?

I think I disagree with you. The truly decentralized, legally issued tokens such as Bitcoin will require a world government and new global legislation to regulate.

But the existing securities regulation in the USA, UK, Canada, China, etc.. will be sufficient to destroy those who are issuing ICOs now. Because there is no way to issue a token such that it's not acquired by citizens/residents of G5 (or G8 or G20) nations; thus, there isn't any need for global harmonization, because issuing/promoting/trading an ICO subjects those fools to multiple jurisdictional jeopardy. Once ICOs are declared illicit by the major nations, they are toast.

If I am wrong, then okay I will eat my words. But I really can't fathom how the authorities can't crack down. I believe the (elite which pull the strings behind the curtain of the) authorities have purposely allowed the ICOs so that those who comprise the "resistance movement" (or otherwise disrespect the authority of the G20) can have their "fingertips burned up to their armpits" (which was a comment from a US Treasury official about the future of goldbugs). Remember what they did to the creator of the Liberty Dollar.

The speculation on ICOs depends on the belief of the greater fools that more greater fools will be coming in to buy.

The authorities will collapse this bubble soon. Mark my words.

Please read this also:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2183804.msg21943715#msg21943715

Regardless of the outcome, I think getting organized asap on what I'm proposing (see the above link and other posts in this thread) would be prudent. So we can capture fundraising while this bubble is still hot (before the potential coming bubble crash) and help investors move into a paradigm that is likely to remain legal and also to genuinely succeed in onboarding and moving crypto out of speculation and into mainstream. I'm very serious. But I need help to get some momentum. One 52 year old person (trying to rehabilitate a messed up liver) can't do all of that by themselves. I will be making some phone calls to sites like SeedInvest. It would easier to issue tokens without any compliance, but I think that would be foolish. I should endeavor to offer investors another choice which is not an ICO. So that investors have options to choose from given the uncertainty about the future of ICOs.

And if y'all think China isn't becoming extremely important and powerful:

CoinCube, I want you to watch this and pay attention closely:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kwF1MXavYs

Duterte warned George Soros that there is a bounty on his head:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aoStEmNR0Y
CoinCube
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September 21, 2017, 06:42:03 AM
Last edit: September 21, 2017, 11:07:53 AM by CoinCube
 #64


Yes I agree. They are a powerful tool for limiting defection and promoting cooperation.

There are two ways to limit the fallout from a prisoners dilemma. The first and best way is to make the actors superrational instead of rational. This is very hard as it requires one to fundamentally elevate the nature of the participants as well as introduce verifiable mechanisms for the superrational to identify themselves to each other.

A simpler stopgap solution is to lock rational players into a metagame which alters short term decision making. In the case of the standard prisoners dilemma for example you could introduce the crime lord on the outside who punishes those who squeak.

The stopgap measures work for a time (sometimes a long time) but are vulnerable to being undermined as the fundamental problem (flawed participants) remains. In the case of the prisoners dilemma the crime lord may die or be arrested or a protection program may be offered.

Decentralized ledgers are the second stopgap type of solution. Self interest and greed are leveraged into support for an algorithm that introduces decentralized computational enforced transparency and verification. This limits the ability defect via abuse of seigniorage or debasement or forgery.

Stopgap measures can work but are vulnerable. In the case of a decentralized ledger the weakness is at the developer level where attempts can be made to seize control of the protocol via controlling future changes and updates. This is exactly where the attacks on bitcoin will and are occurring.

The world is not going to become superrational in the timeframe needed to deal with our imploding financial system. Thus stopgap measures are necessary. Fortunately it looks like decentralized ledgers are arriving just in time to provide the needed emergency relief.

The author of the linked article is on the right track this time. He seems to understand at some level the importance of moral progress. He also acknowledges some of the flaws of monarchy. With time and further consideration he may come to realize that monarchy is inferior overall to rule by republic it is moral progress that allows the progression from the former to the latter.

Rule by genuine consensus is superior still but we have not progressed enough to implement this.

Bitcoin is the first true rule by consensus system that has ever existed. It's a new and superior type of governance in addition to everything else it is.

Hyperme.sh
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September 22, 2017, 09:39:23 AM
Last edit: September 22, 2017, 01:19:02 PM by Hyperme.sh
 #65

WARNING: those who are trading and promoting ICO issued tokens to non-accredited investors in G20 nations (even via an exchange) may be incriminating themselves. Even the European Union has a criteria for accredited investors (and even Ethereum didn’t restrict its ICO accordingly):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accredited_investor#European_Union

These guys could possibly end up in a pickle (they’re in Hong Kong and Cayman Islands):

https://bnktothefuture.com/icos

Every major nation has securities regulation law which applies to ICOs (including even Japan and India), and eventually the authorities will crackdown and enforce the laws:



With the recent bans, and news of crypto tightening regulations, some coins (mostly those which are modeled as a security) are beginning to move more into an accredited investor/institutional investor-only ICO.

Unless they identify and verify accredited investor status and file the appropriate paperwork in every jurisdiction where those accredited investors reside, then they’re still illegally issued securities, e.g. EOS’ checkbox for “I’m an accredited investor” is not legal issuance. Anyone promoting or trading these (including the owners of the exchanges!) may be incriminating themselves.

Do you guys see it as ICOs/blockchain defeating its own purpose by being open only to individuals with the big bucks, a needed measure, or there is way for us to agree on a middle ground?

Tokens issued under an accredited investor exemption must only be traded to other verified accredited investors. If the issuers/promoters/investors reasonably expect these tokens to be listed on public exchanges then they are probably committing a crime. An attorney pointed this out.

Fundraising via tokens is a giant mess that should be entirely avoided by everyone (at least until the authorities provide some new legal framework which might be many years from now, especially since it will require globalized harmonization of law in order to allow trading across nation-state borders). ICO issued tokens are doomed and will likely become illegal to trade and thus worthless. Expect exchanges to start voluntarily delisting ICO issued tokens once they realize the deep shit they are in. You’re investing in empty bags that have never produced any real world use or than facilitating selling empty bags to greater fools.
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