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Author Topic: [WTB/WTS] Casascius Holo Error / Collectible Marketplace  (Read 40730 times)
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nubbins
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December 25, 2014, 01:22:12 PM
 #41

2013 1 BTC Silver S3 [NG] 3rd roll, PGP docs, first owner - 3 BTC
2013 0.5 BTC Silver S2 [NG] 1st roll, PGP docs, first owner - 20 BTC
2013 0.5 BTC Brass S2 [NG] second owner - 1 BTC
2011 1 BTC Brass S2 [MS-65] - 3.25 BTC

The Silver S2 half will be offered at a special holiday price of 17.5 BTC until January 1, 2015, at which point the price will be raised to 25 BTC to reflect the overall rarity and specific desirability of the coin.

No longer buying/selling Casascius coins (okay, except for this one: 1Ag1g59y). Beware scammers.
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December 25, 2014, 03:08:01 PM
 #42

Have there been any recorded sales of silver BTC0.5 s3?

I'd love to know what these have gone for in the past.

I've bought and sold them in the 1-2 BTC range. Maybe 1.5 the last time I traded one?

I'd love to update the initial price listing, there are a lot of people with no idea for valuation.  If you can find 1 or more past instances and shoot me whatever level of details you and the buyer are comfortable with, I'll update the transaction history and price charts accordingly.

Congratulations on the 0.5 low-mintage sales! I'm sure it is exciting for you personally; I find it exciting for the marketplace as a whole.  As you pointed out awhile back...I take it as another indicator of a maturing market. One that realizes the numismatic premium comes from a number of factors, but mintage counts being a very, very important one.  I view it almost hierarchically.  Germane, common sales (maybe a loose 1 BTC Brass coin) provide the comfort for someone to make a 20 BTC buy like the 0.5 BTC rare piece.  One of those sales may set up for a 25 BTC S1 sale, which may set up for a 100 BTC Bar sale (x of 17), a 1000 coin or bar (x of 1, 2, 3, or 5).

That notion you mentioned about "having to sell a few to get to where we are"; I've experienced that. I took the other approach; defining the valuations I believe they are worth. The market does not currently agree.  I'm fine with that, they are my 'make me sell' prices; I don't really plan on parting with the pieces for a few more years.  But the net effect is different.  For my coins, there is a chasm between buyer and seller price. As a result, the market remains stagnant.  You chose to offer the coins at what the market was willing to pay. This sparked further interest. And with a limited supply, the price successfully came up.  Fortunately, you were not then undercut by a large number of others running into the same market you just created; which is again a factor of the extremely limited distribution of the coin you have.

I am of course talking my book here, but I anticipate that within this collectible community, we will see a greater normalization of prices, with mintage and wow-factor being the two key determinants.  A next evolution from there would be more sensical prices as we move up the grading scale.  It is oversimplistic to simply say that all MS-66s should have an xxx% premium relative to an MS-65.  Each piece is different.  Years from now, with proper tracking tools in place, I envision something similar to what we have with the coin grading sites today. A place where you can see the total mintage for a certain coin, but that mintage is then further split out based on the known quantities in each grading.  An MS-67 1 BTC Silver S3 is a pretty common grade.  Yet I don't think we'll ever see an MS-67 25 BTC S1.

So to get there, current traders are acting amidst uncertainty.  First-day runs, misprints, limited availability blanks, coins, bars, interesting external addresses.  We don't know which things will be generally prized by the market. We're sort of inventing and defining that, as we move through the trading process.  As we keep tracking that data, patterns should start to emerge.  Every transaction further informs the market.  To get there, the speculators that anticipate the future direction of the market correctly will profit.  The profit will come from those that chose wrongly.  For those that want to do their homework, further informing them themselves, and the market as a whole at the same time - welcome back :-)

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December 26, 2014, 06:25:31 AM
 #43


Congratulations on the 0.5 low-mintage sales! I'm sure it is exciting for you personally; I find it exciting for the marketplace as a whole.  As you pointed out awhile back...I take it as another indicator of a maturing market. One that realizes the numismatic premium comes from a number of factors, but mintage counts being a very, very important one.  I view it almost hierarchically.  Germane, common sales (maybe a loose 1 BTC Brass coin) provide the comfort for someone to make a 20 BTC buy like the 0.5 BTC rare piece.  One of those sales may set up for a 25 BTC S1 sale, which may set up for a 100 BTC Bar sale (x of 17), a 1000 coin or bar (x of 1, 2, 3, or 5).

I am of course talking my book here, but I anticipate that within this collectible community, we will see a greater normalization of prices, with mintage and wow-factor being the two key determinants.  A next evolution from there would be more sensical prices as we move up the grading scale.  It is oversimplistic to simply say that all MS-66s should have an xxx% premium relative to an MS-65.  Each piece is different.  Years from now, with proper tracking tools in place, I envision something similar to what we have with the coin grading sites today. A place where you can see the total mintage for a certain coin, but that mintage is then further split out based on the known quantities in each grading.  An MS-67 1 BTC Silver S3 is a pretty common grade.  Yet I don't think we'll ever see an MS-67 25 BTC S1.


This tracking site is something that would be a great thing to implement onto my site, CoinFIRM, along with the Casascius and other eBooks and eventual galleries and databases.

It will indeed be interesting to see what a 1000BTC coin or bar will one day sell for; im sure that all parties involved will seek anonymity so I would not at all be surprised if such a sale is not public at all.

Another burning question is, where do we get the info or these sale figures, and what should the numbers be tracked as (BTC or $)? What sources will we get the info for regarding sales that have taken place? Simply watching one forum for these sales is very narrow-minded, even if a large portion of coin owners and traders have accounts here. It may well be that some holders of the 1000BTC pieces are not even registered here. Will we follow the sales that take place on eBay in dollars, and convert that to BTC (at the time of the sale) for tracking purposes? I would agree that Casascius coin sales and values should be measured relative to BTC, because they already hold intrinsic btc value and so fourth, and are expected to rise along with btc value. Still, it does seem silly; almost like measuring the value of rare 1900's gold coins relative to how many ounces of gold they can buy. Something to think about

On a bit of an unrelated note, I notice Nubbins is really emphasising the 'chain of custody'; PGP docs and so fourth. While that's all good and fine, I really dont think they give additional value in a practical sense. Supposedly they would reduce the danger that someone would use some tech to remove the hologram and put it back; but really I think its a moot point since it has not been attempted and even when it happened, the hologram looked noticeably different. Especially in the case of the very rare 0.5BTC S2's; nobody in their right mind would try to remove the S2 hologram to steal 0.5btc, when the coin is worth 20BTC and the removal would at least put a huge risk in destroying it for what... a 2-3% additional value. Especially if a coin is ANACS graded, I believe its legitimacy is irrefutable.



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December 26, 2014, 04:53:28 PM
 #44


Congratulations on the 0.5 low-mintage sales! I'm sure it is exciting for you personally; I find it exciting for the marketplace as a whole.  As you pointed out awhile back...I take it as another indicator of a maturing market. One that realizes the numismatic premium comes from a number of factors, but mintage counts being a very, very important one.  I view it almost hierarchically.  Germane, common sales (maybe a loose 1 BTC Brass coin) provide the comfort for someone to make a 20 BTC buy like the 0.5 BTC rare piece.  One of those sales may set up for a 25 BTC S1 sale, which may set up for a 100 BTC Bar sale (x of 17), a 1000 coin or bar (x of 1, 2, 3, or 5).

I am of course talking my book here, but I anticipate that within this collectible community, we will see a greater normalization of prices, with mintage and wow-factor being the two key determinants.  A next evolution from there would be more sensical prices as we move up the grading scale.  It is oversimplistic to simply say that all MS-66s should have an xxx% premium relative to an MS-65.  Each piece is different.  Years from now, with proper tracking tools in place, I envision something similar to what we have with the coin grading sites today. A place where you can see the total mintage for a certain coin, but that mintage is then further split out based on the known quantities in each grading.  An MS-67 1 BTC Silver S3 is a pretty common grade.  Yet I don't think we'll ever see an MS-67 25 BTC S1.


This tracking site is something that would be a great thing to implement onto my site, CoinFIRM, along with the Casascius and other eBooks and eventual galleries and databases.

It will indeed be interesting to see what a 1000BTC coin or bar will one day sell for; im sure that all parties involved will seek anonymity so I would not at all be surprised if such a sale is not public at all.

Another burning question is, where do we get the info or these sale figures, and what should the numbers be tracked as (BTC or $)? What sources will we get the info for regarding sales that have taken place? Simply watching one forum for these sales is very narrow-minded, even if a large portion of coin owners and traders have accounts here. It may well be that some holders of the 1000BTC pieces are not even registered here. Will we follow the sales that take place on eBay in dollars, and convert that to BTC (at the time of the sale) for tracking purposes? I would agree that Casascius coin sales and values should be measured relative to BTC, because they already hold intrinsic btc value and so fourth, and are expected to rise along with btc value. Still, it does seem silly; almost like measuring the value of rare 1900's gold coins relative to how many ounces of gold they can buy. Something to think about

On a bit of an unrelated note, I notice Nubbins is really emphasising the 'chain of custody'; PGP docs and so fourth. While that's all good and fine, I really dont think they give additional value in a practical sense. Supposedly they would reduce the danger that someone would use some tech to remove the hologram and put it back; but really I think its a moot point since it has not been attempted and even when it happened, the hologram looked noticeably different. Especially in the case of the very rare 0.5BTC S2's; nobody in their right mind would try to remove the S2 hologram to steal 0.5btc, when the coin is worth 20BTC and the removal would at least put a huge risk in destroying it for what... a 2-3% additional value. Especially if a coin is ANACS graded, I believe its legitimacy is irrefutable.

The questions you are asking are excellent ones to ask. There is no right answer in my view, except the one that the consensus of the market migrates towards.  Debating approaches, and choosing what is and is not important to collectible value. This is what ultimately defines what the market is, and what it is not.

-Your ideas about automated price extraction, alongside broadening the net of sales captures would clearly be an improvement. I look forward to using it as an additional source of data. Feel free to throw us a link sometime!

-Seeing sales prices in terms of USD.  Build your site in whatever format you think will be most helpful to consumers.  If your approach varied from this threads, that would be great, it would allow the market to be more broadly informed, compare the two views.  Eventually, people will get a sense for which is preferable, and the reasons why.  This can only help move us (the market) closer to answering the question - How does one valuate a bitcoin collectible? I'll try to include a few rationale for why I (firmly, deeply) believe that BTC-based valuation must ultimately be chosen as the valuation method, or else the collectible market necessarily turns into a bitcoin anti-investment, and an alternative means to bet against the market without shorting on an exchange.

-Chain of custody/PGP docs.  I have not personally taken the effort to generate these for my coins.  The day I have a sale which is dependent on this additional security, I will take the time to generate them.  I'd encourage you to do a little more reading up on the subject.  The counterfeiting approach which used a hypodermic needle to inject a loosening agent left a barely-noticeable mark.  Many of our coins have scratches or scuffs. To be absolutely sure, one is putting the entire value of their purchase in the hands of their own expertise.  Not worth a thief's effort for the example you gave, where the bitcoin value is a small percentage of the net value.  Take instead the example of a 100 BTC Series 2 bar. The Series 1s may go for 300+, but I believe Series 2 regularly go for sub-200.  A thief could determine the private key, then sell the coin at a later date.  Days/weeks/months/years later, they could reserve the private key, and get the money from the sale alongside the bitcoin value on the bar.

This last part is an attempt at explaining the BTC rationale more fully.  I have thought on this for hours and hours and hours. I am still looking for an exquisitely simple way to condense the argument. This is the best I can present it to date.

Price Tracking in BTC, not USD
1. I find BTC as the best-correlated anchor for sales.  I have seen loose 1 BTC Brass S1 coins go for 3 BTC when Bitcoins were $5, $120, $600, and still today at $300.  Perhaps the numismatic premium went up 100x, cut in half, and all the while happened to track the changing BTC/USD value. A simpler explanation would be that valuation is held in buyer/seller's minds in terms of BTC.  Prices are "sticky", and a seller today was a buyer yesterday. When that buyer bought, in this market, there's a very, very good chance they used Bitcoins. This creates an anchor in their mind.  A future sale above that is a win, below is a loss.  I have personal instances of this same BTC-premium constancy, across large price variation, for 1 BTC, 5 BTC, and 25 BTC prices.

2. Let's walk through an example of what happens to the market if, instead of BTC premiums, the market chooses to use USD valuation.
Bitcoin price is at $100.
Ekko decides to invest.  With his $1000, he buys 10 electronic BTC. Ekko pays $100 for each bitcoin, $100 being the bitcoin value.
Colin also decides to invest. With his $1000, he guys 5 of the 1 BTC silver pieces at 2 BTC apiece. Colin pays $200 for each coin, $100 being the bitcoin value, $100 being the numismatic premium.
Years pass, and bitcoin price reaches $10,000.
Ekko sells his 10 electronic bitcoin and receives $100,000.
Colin sells his 5 collectible bitcoin, and receives $50,000 plus the numismatic premium for his coins.  That premium went from $100 / coin all the way up to $1000 / coin! He gets another $5,000 for this, and receives $55,000 in total.

What if instead of selling once it hits $10,000, they HODL?
Ekko still has 10 BTC.
Colin would be able to sell his physical for cash and/or trade for electronic. His holdings would increase from 5 BTC to 5.5 BTC.

Bitcoins is a paradigm-shifting technology for which exponential rises, Elliot Wave theory, and sigmoid curves can apply; it is entirely reasonable to assume exponential growth.  This is far less common within a collectible niche.

If the market adopts USD premiums for the collectible value portion of a bitcoin's valuation, an investor looking to hold bitcoins long-term will come out best avoiding collectible bitcoins, unless the numismatic appreciation of collectibles outpaces the appreciation rate of BTC itself.

I believe markets are efficient, and practical. A market will not take a 'suicide pill'.  I believe that in time, as 1000s of collectors personally grapple with the same decision, and realize their reluctance to sell a piece for less BTC than they used to buy it, that eventually, this mentality will become adopted.  

We'll see.






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December 29, 2014, 12:39:55 AM
 #45

How is the Spotcoins site (http://www.spotcoins.com/bitcoin/casascius) being consulted or aligned with what you've tracked? This site is really easy to use - all info on one page - and I believe it was the first comprehensive summary of Casascius coin mintage. Elianite's book is great for the deep history of Casascius coins. The Spotcoins site (created by Melbustus) is the best one-look page for all Casascius coin mintages and active vs. used counts.

Some recent sales to add to the list are:
  • 2011 BTC1 brass series 2: purchased for BTC2
  • 2013 BTC1 silver with brass trim: purchased for BTC2.18
  • 2013 BTC0.1 silver: purchased for BTC0.68

And to Nubbins, I'd be interested in the BTC0.5 silver series 3 if you're still willing to sell, PM me or acknowledge on this site and I'll hit you up.

I'm glad there are a few of us seeking a normal or generally agreed upon information on Casascius coin valuation. I completely accept that the prices will rise and/or fall with the market but we need to come closer to what the current values are at any given point so that sales can actually happen. Right now it seems like there's a gap between the asks and the offers which doesn't help the buyer or the seller.

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December 29, 2014, 12:46:09 AM
 #46

I also agree that the valuations need to be in BTC, it's for the good of the movement and will keep things consistent for buyers and sellers all over the world.

We'll have to realize that the fiat conversion may always be a secondary factor in sales prices but that should be be determined between the buyer and the seller, not the marketplace as a whole.

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December 29, 2014, 12:05:16 PM
 #47

As some of you may know, I am working on a ~200 page eBook guide to categorize all physical crypto coins. In creating it, I would like to standardize some naming conventions to identify specific coins, particularly when it comes to Casascius coins.

I would like the feedback of the collector community to develop a naming system that makes sense, is easy to understand, and will stand the test of time.

Please see my thread designated for naming here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=907471.new#new

Below is a proposed naming convention for casascius coins. Please comment in the thread pasted above!

1btc Coin, S1, 2011
1btc ‘First Bits Error’ Coin, S1, 2011
1btc Coin, S2, 2011
1btc Coin, S2, 2012
1btc Coin, S2, 2013
1btc Silver Coin, S3, 2013
1btc Silver 'Gold Rim' Coin, S3, 2013
5btc Coin, S1, 2012 ‘Error Bitnickel’     (should I drop the 'error' here?)
5btc Coin, S2, 2012 ‘Bitnickel’
0.5btc Coin, S2, 2013
0.5btc 'Silver Error' Silver Coin, S3, 2013
0.5btc Silver Coin, S3, 2013
0.1btc Silver Coin, S3, 2013
10btc Silver Coin, S2, 2012
10btc 'Gold B' Silver Coin, S2, 2012
25btc Coin, S1, 2011
25btc Coin, S2, 2011
1000btc Gold Coin, S1, 2011
Aluminum Round
St. Petersburg Bitcoin Bowl Silver Round

PS: looking for SPONSORS! there's ad space available on the guide!

Author of Encyclopedia of Physical Bitcoins and Crypto-Currencies. View free sample and Buy the book at https://coinfirm.org/
COINS: BUYERS & SELLERS & RE-SELLERS: CoinFIRM Crypto-Brokers handles it all https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1835091.0
I DO NOT TRUST forum security. ONLY send me BTC to addresses received by first emailing info@coinfirm.org
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December 31, 2014, 04:32:13 PM
 #48

Would just like to mention, my coins are still up for sale!

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January 04, 2015, 06:05:54 PM
 #49

Relisting my coins for sale....

Casascius
2013 .5 Brass MS-65        12CQNHPR4AcANifwbheaRzVPkchaTCm8ep
2013 .1 Silver MS-65        1Agx7VZWk2W5pnicXJ6A7qu7hs4E3aAMpc
2013 .5 Brass UNGRADED 129Uky9Zxef89DzT2YZZexKBo4SV6g2d16

Lealana FUNDED-UNGRADED
2013 1LTC x30 x10 - Coins were purchased on the roll.  Random samples were removed and sent for grading and received MS-66 & MS-65 grades.

Also not for sale but included free with each purchase will be 5 original 'Strength in Numbers' casascius aluminum coins.

Pricing.  I am motivated to sell these coins buuuuuuttttt....I purchased all of these with BTC at higher levels than it is now, some at much higher, so I will be taking a loss if converted back to USD no matter what.  That having been said, there is a bottom of exactly HOW MUCH of a loss I am wiling to take as opposed to just sitting on them and seeing what happens in six months or so.
Trades.  I am not looking for trades at this time of any coins other than Casascius.  If you have a Gold/Silver MS-67 and would like to discuss some mix of the coins below + some BTC hit me up and maybe we can make a deal.

Pics of coins...I have reduced the size in the interest of not clogging the thread but full size pics can be posted upon request.

                               

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January 04, 2015, 07:47:17 PM
 #50

I suppose this belongs here as well. I'm taking offers for my MS-68 Casascius tenth. This is also the first MS68 casascius coin  Wink

More info: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=911883.0














 

 

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Possum577
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January 10, 2015, 07:25:34 AM
 #51

As some of you may know, I am working on a ~200 page eBook guide to categorize all physical crypto coins. In creating it, I would like to standardize some naming conventions to identify specific coins, particularly when it comes to Casascius coins.

I would like the feedback of the collector community to develop a naming system that makes sense, is easy to understand, and will stand the test of time.

Please see my thread designated for naming here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=907471.new#new

Below is a proposed naming convention for casascius coins. Please comment in the thread pasted above!

1btc Coin, S1, 2011
1btc ‘First Bits Error’ Coin, S1, 2011
1btc Coin, S2, 2011
1btc Coin, S2, 2012
1btc Coin, S2, 2013
1btc Silver Coin, S3, 2013
1btc Silver 'Gold Rim' Coin, S3, 2013
5btc Coin, S1, 2012 ‘Error Bitnickel’     (should I drop the 'error' here?)
5btc Coin, S2, 2012 ‘Bitnickel’
0.5btc Coin, S2, 2013
0.5btc 'Silver Error' Silver Coin, S3, 2013
0.5btc Silver Coin, S3, 2013
0.1btc Silver Coin, S3, 2013
10btc Silver Coin, S2, 2012
10btc 'Gold B' Silver Coin, S2, 2012
25btc Coin, S1, 2011
25btc Coin, S2, 2011
1000btc Gold Coin, S1, 2011
Aluminum Round
St. Petersburg Bitcoin Bowl Silver Round

PS: looking for SPONSORS! there's ad space available on the guide!

Hey Elianite, this seems like a good taxonomy. I have only one suggestion, why not replace "BTC" with "BTC" and put the BTC in front of the number, which is consistent with the all other currency.

Your thoughts?

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January 10, 2015, 07:00:05 PM
 #52

Auctioning a three coin set of MS-67 2013's (.1, .5, 1)

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=919324.0

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January 11, 2015, 11:04:49 PM
 #53

An eBay auction for a 2011 BTC1 S2 Casascius coin just went for $835...it jumped from $515 to $835 in the last 2 minutes (see the link below).

I bring this up for two reasons;
  • People on this thread want the sales data for their records, and
  • The price represents a ~3x face valuation for this 2011 S2 coin, which is greater than these coins have sold for in the past; Usually these 2011 S2 coins go for 2x face, and while many put greater value on the 2011 S1 the 2011 S2 has a significantly lower mintage and this new, higher price could indicate that the market is starting to value the 2011 S2's more appropriately for their scarcity

In the interest of full disclosure, I was planning to bid on the coin but the price escalated out of my range so I'm not the winning bidder.

Link to auction results: http://www.ebay.com/itm/201257119489?_trksid=p2050601.m570.l4455&_trkparms=gh1g%3DI201257119489.N7.S1.M9.R1.TR2&autorefresh=true

Most other crypto coin auctions on eBay recently have been for unfunded Casascius coins, funded Casascius coins with buy it now (only) prices of several thousand dollars, or Casascius "wanna be" coins (i.e., Cryptolator, etc.) This is the first realistically priced or true auction I've seen for a Casascius coin in a long time.

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January 12, 2015, 03:50:07 PM
 #54

eBay

For what it's worth, eBay sales are almost entirely fraudulent activity (fake bids, etc). There are a couple of sellers who push massive fake volume through the site to make it seem like their Casascius coins are flying off the shelves, but it's the same handful of fake accounts bidding and winning... often for below face value.

If you search eBay for "Casascius" and limit your search to only those items which were SOLD, you'll find some very, very strange things happening.

No longer buying/selling Casascius coins (okay, except for this one: 1Ag1g59y). Beware scammers.
My OTC Web of Trust ratings / What's a PGP chain of custody?
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January 13, 2015, 11:48:00 PM
 #55

I've reduced the prices I'd be willing to sell my 5 BTC S1, 25 BTC S1, and 100 BTC S1 bars. Prices are current, the coins are MS-65 and MS-66.  This is a chance to pick up a high-end piece for the same BTC premium set in by historical prices, but significantly lower USD premium.

Here's a link to the posting from Page 1: http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=214589.msg3410213#msg3410213

Shoot me a PM if you're interested in anything. I'm definitely willing to entertain discounts for a packaged deal.
Transaction will have to be in person, buyer pays first, or M-of-N escrow with mutually agreed on escrowers.

There are a fair number of pieces available right now.  It's not a fun time to look at the charts...but it can be a fun time to shift assets, and pick up a few new pieces for your collection.  Even if I don't have anything of interest, there's a good chance someone else has got what you're looking for up for sale.  Good luck, all.

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March 03, 2015, 07:48:45 PM
 #56

Hey, folks. Rare Casascius coin up for auction, thought I'd alert the watchers of this thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=975256.0

No longer buying/selling Casascius coins (okay, except for this one: 1Ag1g59y). Beware scammers.
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March 03, 2015, 10:16:44 PM
 #57

Hey, folks. Rare Casascius coin up for auction, thought I'd alert the watchers of this thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=975256.0

This isnt just a rare Cas coin. It is one of the rarest Cas coins. An awesome coin and currently at a incredible price. GL with the auction nubbins Smiley
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March 03, 2015, 10:41:11 PM
 #58

It will be interesting to see how much it goes for...my guess is around 12BTC.

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March 04, 2015, 12:09:17 AM
 #59

I'm extremely curious to see how it turns out!

No longer buying/selling Casascius coins (okay, except for this one: 1Ag1g59y). Beware scammers.
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March 04, 2015, 12:20:34 AM
 #60

I'm extremely curious to see how it turns out!

Yeah time the market set a solid price on those rare coins. I want one, but no reason to bid again untill next month!

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