Who wants to share some bear?

[RationalSpeculator]

I'll start poking a little

It's just pathetic how the bulls are getting an erection already on this weak upwards move today from $120 to $130. Times have changed.

There's just no action and I'm checking prices less and less. I think it will trend at best sideways for half a year. Likely it will hit 30/50 in that time. Summer is going to be dull.

With over 1500 billionaires in the world there is a chance that it relaunches again to new highs never to come back but I estimate chances low.

Any bears around who feel alike?

Bulls please no hype talk here, I can't bear it anymore. 

[1713562157]

1713562157

[1713562157]

1713562157

[1713562157]

1713562157

[antimattercrusader]

Bulls please no hype talk here, I can't bear it anymore.

BTC going to 5,000 by June 10!!!!! HOOO RAHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

[RationalSpeculator]

Bulls please no hype talk here, I can't bear it anymore.

BTC going to 5,000 by June 10!!!!! HOOO RAHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

lol

[San1ty]

I don't know about you, but:

[ElectricMucus]

I stopped being a care bear.

[RationalSpeculator]

I stopped being a care bear.

What's a care bear?

[RationalSpeculator]

I don't know about you, but:

lol

[MonadTran]

I can't bear it anymore.

Then bull it!

[niothor]

I stopped being a care bear.

What's a care bear?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Care_Bears

I enjoyed those movies when I was a child btw:)

[Rampion]

My inner bear won't go away for good unless we break $130 consistently and on decent volume.

And $50 looked like the very bottom, unless something really disruptive happens I don't see how we could go below that.

[RationalSpeculator]

I can't bear it anymore.

Then bull it!

Nah, need more cheap coins first

[RationalSpeculator]

I stopped being a care bear.

What's a care bear?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Care_Bears

I enjoyed those movies when I was a child btw:)

Yeah it was nice that they lived in the clouds

My bear lives down to earth though.

[Tirapon]

I don't know about you, but:

A bit too early for that I think... Don't worry, the time will come!

I have a gut feeling that things will kick off over summer.

[RationalSpeculator]

My inner bear won't go away for good unless we break $130 consistently and on decent volume.

And $50 looked like the very bottom, unless something really disruptive happens I don't see how we could go below that.

Then your inner bear is not strong. Price is volatile.

Very bottom is not reached the day after.

A black swan is needed to get this bubble relaunched, not the other way around.

[Malawi]

You never know, but I think the downside is quite a bit larger than the upside ATM.

[RationalSpeculator]

You never know, but I think the downside is quite a bit larger than the upside ATM.

That's nice to hear

Feeling all warm again with some bear company

So, how volatile can this be? $150?

[RationalSpeculator]

Just discovered nice bitcoin song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcRxeYO1YPs&noredirect=1

Ofcourse bitcoin remains the future and I have sufficient to not miss out but I am following SlipperySlope on the short term bear case:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=175010.0

[Malawi]

You never know, but I think the downside is quite a bit larger than the upside ATM.

That's nice to hear

Feeling all warm again with some bear company

So, how volatile can this be? $150?

I am really not sure, but this seems like a ledge, and prices may fall very quickly if there is some high sellout.
I doubt it will go over 140 now, but if it does it may signal a new bubble.

My take on a healthy price would be sub $100, more likely close to $50, but it seems like the market is filled with quite a few overly optimistic people after it has traded at more than $150 for a few days in the recent past.

I really don't see the support for the current price, but I figure that the higher/faster it goes - The more it will fall back and I can get my buy-orders filled before the next peak.

[BitcoinAshley]

Yes, a bear thread with people who think it will go to $30-$50!

Yeah, we're totally gonna see $30 this summer

  

I'm soooo bearish. "Long, slow, slide, guys."

Am I doinitrite?

 

[RationalSpeculator]

Yes, a bear thread with people who think it will go to $30-$50!

Yeah, we're totally gonna see $30 this summer

  

I'm soooo bearish. "Long, slow, slide, guys."

Am I doinitrite?

 

No, it lacks credibility 

Try again, somewhere deep inside of you there must be a bear. Try to connect.

[fitty]

Yes, a bear thread with people who think it will go to $30-$50!

Yeah, we're totally gonna see $30 this summer

  

I'm soooo bearish. "Long, slow, slide, guys."

Am I doinitrite?

 

Not bad. You need a few more buzzwords.

"Pretty obvious it's a dead cat bounce"

"Inverse reverse rainbow candles, clearly a downtrend"

"I had a neckbeard in 2011 and I started regrowing it a few months ago. Same neckbeard, same long slow slide"

"MtGox will end up Goxing us" (okay can't argue that one)

"I see 3 triangles, two Bull Pennants and my mom's ivory broach, we're headed down!"

"BubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleB ubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubbleBubble"

That about covers it. 

[TheKoziTwo]

it will trend at best sideways for half a year. Likely it will hit 30/50 in that time. Summer is going to be dull.

[RationalSpeculator]

it will trend at best sideways for half a year. Likely it will hit 30/50 in that time. Summer is going to be dull.

lol Gotja

She looks beautiful

[Qoheleth]

It's just pathetic how the bulls are getting an erection already on this weak upwards move today from $120 to $130. Times have changed.

There's something pretty interesting about this statement.

I mean, yes. Compared to much of Bitcoin's history, and especially compared to 2013, a move from $120 to $130 is fairly small.

But if you saw that kind of change in, say, forex, the expectation is completely different. That's almost 10%! That's a big move!

There's just no action and I'm checking prices less and less. I think it will trend at best sideways for half a year.

I think I'd take "trend[ing] sideways for half a year" over a lot of the alternatives. Value-confidence is good for Bitcoin, and attracts the right sort of new blood.

Try again, somewhere deep inside of you there must be a bear. Try to connect.

Hmm. If you want to hear what makes me feel bearish, it's this: there was a bubble, and the bubble has popped, but we haven't visited proper despair yet. The worst it's gotten so far has been the immediate post-pop selloff. Looking at exponential graphs, and trying to chart things according to 2011's lessons, we should be heading all the way down to the historical zone-of-confidence at $10-13.

Now, the math could be wrong. Past performance never guarantees future results. No, the real bearish indicator is that I have this math and my gut is totally ignoring it. My gut looks at the $50, and instead of thinking "bull trap" it thinks "that's the floor". My gut looks at the current market and thinks not "when will the other shoe drop so that we can leave the bubble behind" but "we've already left the bubble behind".

The fact that this is my gut reaction fits too well with the classic "return to normal" bubble phase for my intellectual side to dismiss it.

Based on that interpretation, the current bullish movement can continue only to about ~$175-80 before faltering again, and creating bearish movement to below the $50 lows of the pop (targeting either $30 or $10-13 as the nadir).

TL;DR: My own bullish sentiment is the best bearish indicator I have, and looking closely at it makes it seem like an uncomfortably credible one.

[Miz4r]

If I look at the 6 month chart I don't really see a bubble that has popped but a rather large correction that took place. The whole bubble theory and terminology like 'despair' and 'return to normal' do not apply in case of a correction. The higher lows and higher highs we're seeing point more to a correction than a bubble deflating in my view. Just my opinion ofcourse, the future will tell us what it will be.

[Qoheleth]

If I look at the 6 month chart I don't really see a bubble that has popped but a rather large correction that took place. The whole bubble theory and terminology like 'despair' and 'return to normal' do not apply in case of a correction. The higher lows and higher highs we're seeing point more to a correction than a bubble deflating in my view. Just my opinion ofcourse, the future will tell us what it will be.

We had growth that looked exponential on an exponential chart, with media attention and uninformed investors showing up in the last part of that growth.

That's why I feel it's worthwhile to take the bubble interpretation seriously. Obviously, it's also possible that it was never a bubble pattern per se, which is the contention that my gut is making. But I don't trust my gut.

[Malawi]

Hmm. If you want to hear what makes me feel bearish, it's this: there was a bubble, and the bubble has popped, but we haven't visited proper despair yet. The worst it's gotten so far has been the immediate post-pop selloff. Looking at exponential graphs, and trying to chart things according to 2011's lessons, we should be heading all the way down to the historical zone-of-confidence at $10-13.

This!

[Malawi]

Hmm. Seems like we just saw an attempt to break away upwards from the trend, but that it failed.

I am not too good at that technical analysis, but I figure this might mean that there is to be a real breakout, it has to be downwards.

On the other hand, there have been bought a lot of coins lately for transfer to other sites after the Dwolla incident(keeping the prices artificially bloated?).
Since it's a bit hard to get dollars out of MtGox, this might mean that those dollars might be burning in their respective pockets.

[BIGMERVE]

it will trend at best sideways for half a year. Likely it will hit 30/50 in that time. Summer is going to be dull.

lol Gotja

She looks beautiful

Here are some more pictures of her if you want. You can thank me later.

[RationalSpeculator]

it will trend at best sideways for half a year. Likely it will hit 30/50 in that time. Summer is going to be dull.

lol Gotja

She looks beautiful

Here are some more pictures of her if you want. You can thank me later.

  thanks! She's a tiger! :-)

In contrast to that bull you guys showed!

The beast went to sleep already!


Goddamn that lady is a kickboxer!   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONhGfJS7LmI
 

[RationalSpeculator]

Hmm. If you want to hear what makes me feel bearish, it's this: there was a bubble, and the bubble has popped, but we haven't visited proper despair yet. The worst it's gotten so far has been the immediate post-pop selloff. Looking at exponential graphs, and trying to chart things according to 2011's lessons, we should be heading all the way down to the historical zone-of-confidence at $10-13.

Now, the math could be wrong. Past performance never guarantees future results. No, the real bearish indicator is that I have this math and my gut is totally ignoring it. My gut looks at the $50, and instead of thinking "bull trap" it thinks "that's the floor". My gut looks at the current market and thinks not "when will the other shoe drop so that we can leave the bubble behind" but "we've already left the bubble behind".

The fact that this is my gut reaction fits too well with the classic "return to normal" bubble phase for my intellectual side to dismiss it.

Based on that interpretation, the current bullish movement can continue only to about ~$175-80 before faltering again, and creating bearish movement to below the $50 lows of the pop (targeting either $30 or $10-13 as the nadir).

TL;DR: My own bullish sentiment is the best bearish indicator I have, and looking closely at it makes it seem like an uncomfortably credible one.

Thanks for sharing Very interesting to hear how you also look at your different parts. Has your gut been mostly right or wrong in the past? What about your intellectual side?

Yes, I think many expect a 2011 repeat, and in that case indeed it will go down, but since so many expect it, it might not happen. Which would mean trending sideways. A relaunch is possible, and part of me is afraid of that, but thinking as rational as possible I agree with you. It had all the indicators of a bubble, and it just does not happen that a bubble crashes so hard, only to relaunch soon after.

The actual usage of the currency, the hashrate, the amount of services lags now way behind the valuation of the currency. It will take a year to catch up.

From a risk/reward perspective, as well as from a valuation perspective, as well as from a technical perspective, this looks bad.

That does not mean it cannot happen, rationally one must admit that it only takes one dedicated billionaire to relaunch this bubble. It's just that I estimate the chances low so it's a bad bet to take.  

[RationalSpeculator]

If I look at the 6 month chart I don't really see a bubble that has popped but a rather large correction that took place. The whole bubble theory and terminology like 'despair' and 'return to normal' do not apply in case of a correction. The higher lows and higher highs we're seeing point more to a correction than a bubble deflating in my view. Just my opinion ofcourse, the future will tell us what it will be.

I must admit that it could just have been a correction. A serious bear market like 2011 only happened once. All the other parabolic rises were followed by a correction and shortly thereafter continued their rise.

However, the rise of 2011 was the strongest, and the rise of 2013 the second strongest. The higher you go, the higher the chance of falling long. So this 2013 rise is certainly a very good candidate for another long bear market.

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

This is very difficult I find.

[justusranvier]

The actual usage of the currency, the hashrate, the amount of services lags now way behind the valuation of the currency. It will take a year to catch up.

I think Latin America, China and Russia are going to surprise you this year.

[smoothie]

Translation of OP:

"Dear Bitcoin Bear God,

Please grant me 1 wish. I sold all my coins at sub $120 and I want to buy them back cheaper than I sold them. So please let me sound like I am just making a joke here about being a bear when in fact I am subliminally trying to garner more bears to bring the price down for my personal and selfish reasons.

Please bring the price down to ~$90.

Thank you oh great bear god of Bitcoin

RationalSpeculator"


 

[RationalSpeculator]

Translation of OP:

"Dear Bitcoin Bear God,

Please grant me 1 wish. I sold all my coins at sub $120 and I want to buy them back cheaper than I sold them. So please let me sound like I am just making a joke here about being a bear when in fact I am subliminally trying to garner more bears to bring the price down for my personal and selfish reasons.

Please bring the price down to ~$90.

Thank you oh great bear god of Bitcoin

RationalSpeculator"


 

That would be your interpretation as well as suspicions.

It contains factual errors that you would have known if you read my posts.

My sale price was not below current price. I made the same amount of money as a buy and hold, but if it crashes I won't lose as much.
 
I always hold onto enough bitcoins to not feel bad if I am wrong. This means if price goes up I make money, if price goes down I lose money.  

I don't think you are funny, I find your post quite irritating actually. Keep the bolds down please. No reason to scream.

[xavier]

I'll start poking a little

It's just pathetic how the bulls are getting an erection already on this weak upwards move today from $120 to $130. Times have changed.

There's just no action and I'm checking prices less and less. I think it will trend at best sideways for half a year. Likely it will hit 30/50 in that time. Summer is going to be dull.

With over 1500 billionaires in the world there is a chance that it relaunches again to new highs never to come back but I estimate chances low.

Any bears around who feel alike?

Bulls please no hype talk here, I can't bear it anymore. 

I thought i had the finger on the pulse of the market. However with this recent rise, Im not so sure. Bear trap or new bull market?

Unfortunately dont have the time to study it more atm. However these things must be taken in context with what else is going on in the world right now.

[smoothie]

Translation of OP:

"Dear Bitcoin Bear God,

Please grant me 1 wish. I sold all my coins at sub $120 and I want to buy them back cheaper than I sold them. So please let me sound like I am just making a joke here about being a bear when in fact I am subliminally trying to garner more bears to bring the price down for my personal and selfish reasons.

Please bring the price down to ~$90.

Thank you oh great bear god of Bitcoin

RationalSpeculator"


 

That would be your interpretation as well as suspicions.

It contains factual errors that you would have known if you read my posts.

My sale price was not below current price. I made the same amount of money as a buy and hold, but if it crashes I won't lose as much.
 
I always hold onto enough bitcoins to not feel bad if I am wrong. This means if price goes up I make money, if price goes down I lose money.  

I don't think you are funny, I find your post quite irritating actually. Keep the bolds down please. No reason to scream.

Wow someone is quite butt hurt. You can hit the pussy ignore button below my name if you dont like my posts. No one said you HAD TO read them.

You need to lighten up and learn to take a joke. Pull the broomstick out of your rear. Thanks!

 

[randrace]

[RationalSpeculator]

Translation of OP:

"Dear Bitcoin Bear God,

Please grant me 1 wish. I sold all my coins at sub $120 and I want to buy them back cheaper than I sold them. So please let me sound like I am just making a joke here about being a bear when in fact I am subliminally trying to garner more bears to bring the price down for my personal and selfish reasons.

Please bring the price down to ~$90.

Thank you oh great bear god of Bitcoin

RationalSpeculator"


 

That would be your interpretation as well as suspicions.

It contains factual errors that you would have known if you read my posts.

My sale price was not below current price. I made the same amount of money as a buy and hold, but if it crashes I won't lose as much.
 
I always hold onto enough bitcoins to not feel bad if I am wrong. This means if price goes up I make money, if price goes down I lose money.  

I don't think you are funny, I find your post quite irritating actually. Keep the bolds down please. No reason to scream.

Wow someone is quite butt hurt. You can hit the pussy ignore button below my name if you dont like my posts. No one said you HAD TO read them.

You need to lighten up and learn to take a joke. Pull the broomstick out of your rear. Thanks!

 

You are acting like a jerk. I'll take your advise to ignore you.

[smoothie]

Translation of OP:

"Dear Bitcoin Bear God,

Please grant me 1 wish. I sold all my coins at sub $120 and I want to buy them back cheaper than I sold them. So please let me sound like I am just making a joke here about being a bear when in fact I am subliminally trying to garner more bears to bring the price down for my personal and selfish reasons.

Please bring the price down to ~$90.

Thank you oh great bear god of Bitcoin

RationalSpeculator"


 

That would be your interpretation as well as suspicions.

It contains factual errors that you would have known if you read my posts.

My sale price was not below current price. I made the same amount of money as a buy and hold, but if it crashes I won't lose as much.
 
I always hold onto enough bitcoins to not feel bad if I am wrong. This means if price goes up I make money, if price goes down I lose money.  

I don't think you are funny, I find your post quite irritating actually. Keep the bolds down please. No reason to scream.

Wow someone is quite butt hurt. You can hit the pussy ignore button below my name if you dont like my posts. No one said you HAD TO read them.

You need to lighten up and learn to take a joke. Pull the broomstick out of your rear. Thanks!

 

You are acting like a jerk. I'll take your advise to ignore you.

And another one bites the dust. 

[Miz4r]

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

The lower highs trend was broken since last week: 266 - 166 - 150 - 125 - 134 (now)
The higher lows were as follows: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103

[Zaih]

Mate... Smoothie says its going up. Your opinion is therefore invalid heh

[RationalSpeculator]

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

The lower highs trend was broken since last week: 266 - 166 - 150 - 125 - 134 (now)
The higher lows were as follows: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103

Broken I would not agree with yet as you can simply remove the 125: 266 -166 -150 -134 (now)

The higher lows is true though. So I would agree it's not clear cut.

However, this forum is still very bullish. Where are the doubts?

[hl5460]

I thought it was some "BEER"...lol
Still gambling may not the best option for spending the coins, as far as I am concerned.

[RationalSpeculator]

I thought it was some "BEER"...lol
Still gambling may not the best option for spending the coins, as far as I am concerned.

How is gambling related to this thread?

[notme]

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

The lower highs trend was broken since last week: 266 - 166 - 150 - 125 - 134 (now)
The higher lows were as follows: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103

Broken I would not agree with yet as you can simply remove the 125: 266 -166 -150 -134 (now)

The higher lows is true though. So I would agree it's not clear cut.

However, this forum is still very bullish. Where are the doubts?

There is plenty of doubt among those who are new to bitcoin, or have even just heard about it but aren't sure about it.

You're in an echo chamber that will always be bullish on bitcoin.  Duh.

[smoothie]

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

The lower highs trend was broken since last week: 266 - 166 - 150 - 125 - 134 (now)
The higher lows were as follows: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103

Broken I would not agree with yet as you can simply remove the 125: 266 -166 -150 -134 (now)

The higher lows is true though. So I would agree it's not clear cut.

However, this forum is still very bullish. Where are the doubts?

There is plenty of doubt among those who are new to bitcoin, or have even just heard about it but aren't sure about it.

You're in an echo chamber that will always be bullish on bitcoin.  Duh.

+1 but that doesnt mean the price can't go sideways. lol

[notme]

I thought it was some "BEER"...lol
Still gambling may not the best option for spending the coins, as far as I am concerned.

How is gambling related to this thread?

Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods.

Sounds to me like asset speculation fits right in there.

[Anon136]

you are probably right but fortunately i know my own limitations. i know that im not smart enough to trade technicals. i will continue to sit patiently on my small pile and observe what ever happens or doesnt. if my bitcoins make me rich i will use them to purchase an opulent lifestyle someday, if they do not than i will ride that train all the way to the bottom of the ocean, shrug my shoulders and move on.

[Qoheleth]

Thanks for sharing Very interesting to hear how you also look at your different parts. Has your gut been mostly right or wrong in the past? What about your intellectual side?

My intellectual side has thought the same thing since about March 2012: long-term confidence in the technology, short-term the only sure thing is massive volatility. That's not much of a contention, but it's proven fairly accurate

My gut has been on a roller-coaster, especially since January. During the run-up, there were times when I said to myself, "you'd better buy in, 'it' is finally happening!" There were other times that I said to myself "it's gotta crash soon, cash out while you can!" In the end, aside from one impulse buy around $120, I silenced these instincts - in any case they failed to call the top and seriously misread the crash several times - and stuck to the plan, which has been slowly but surely making me money since I bought in over a year ago.

(This is not why I don't trust my gut. I don't trust my gut because even in the best case it works without me understanding why, and without any guarantee that it'll work again tomorrow. In a zero-sum game that most people play emotionally, an emotionless, tested strategy is how you win.)

[RationalSpeculator]

I thought it was some "BEER"...lol
Still gambling may not the best option for spending the coins, as far as I am concerned.

How is gambling related to this thread?

Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods.

Sounds to me like asset speculation fits right in there.

An important difference being that with gambling your chances of winning are statistically lower than losing. With asset speculation, if done well, you only bet on things that have a higher chance of winning than of losing. Risk/reward calculations and all that...

And if you ask me the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin right now is not favorable. Compared to for example the risk/reward of an investment in Satoshi Dice. And short term I would say that even the risk/reward ratio of dollars is better than bitcoins.

[notme]

I thought it was some "BEER"...lol
Still gambling may not the best option for spending the coins, as far as I am concerned.

How is gambling related to this thread?

Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods.

Sounds to me like asset speculation fits right in there.

An important difference being that with gambling your chances of winning are statistically lower than losing. With asset speculation, if done well, you only bet on things that have a higher chance of winning than of losing. Risk/reward calculations and all that...

And if you ask me the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin right now is not favorable. Compared to for example the risk/reward of an investment in Satoshi Dice. And short term I would say that even the risk/reward ratio of dollars is better than bitcoins.

The wikipedia makes no mention of a house advantage being necessary to make it gambling.

It gives speculation a solid maybe, and I'm happy to leave it there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling#Other_uses_of_the_term_.22gambling.22