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Author Topic: Who wants to share some bear?  (Read 3920 times)
Miz4r
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May 25, 2013, 08:39:41 AM
 #41

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

The lower highs trend was broken since last week: 266 - 166 - 150 - 125 - 134 (now)
The higher lows were as follows: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103

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May 25, 2013, 08:43:49 AM
 #42

Mate... Smoothie says its going up. Your opinion is therefore invalid Tongue heh
RationalSpeculator
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!


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May 26, 2013, 06:34:32 AM
 #43

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

The lower highs trend was broken since last week: 266 - 166 - 150 - 125 - 134 (now)
The higher lows were as follows: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103

Broken I would not agree with yet as you can simply remove the 125: 266 -166 -150 -134 (now)

The higher lows is true though. So I would agree it's not clear cut.

However, this forum is still very bullish. Where are the doubts?
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May 26, 2013, 06:41:56 AM
 #44

I thought it was some "BEER"...lol
Still gambling may not the best option for spending the coins, as far as I am concerned.

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May 26, 2013, 07:35:11 AM
 #45

I thought it was some "BEER"...lol
Still gambling may not the best option for spending the coins, as far as I am concerned.

How is gambling related to this thread?
notme
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May 26, 2013, 09:06:25 AM
 #46

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

The lower highs trend was broken since last week: 266 - 166 - 150 - 125 - 134 (now)
The higher lows were as follows: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103

Broken I would not agree with yet as you can simply remove the 125: 266 -166 -150 -134 (now)

The higher lows is true though. So I would agree it's not clear cut.

However, this forum is still very bullish. Where are the doubts?

There is plenty of doubt among those who are new to bitcoin, or have even just heard about it but aren't sure about it.

You're in an echo chamber that will always be bullish on bitcoin.  Duh.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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smoothie
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May 26, 2013, 09:09:00 AM
 #47

I feel resistance when people claim this is just a correction because the crash from 266 to 50 over 2 days, cannot be called a correction. Such price move is called a crash. And since then it's been lower high's, which also corresponds with a crash.  (where do you get the higher highs from? 266/160/150/...)

The lower highs trend was broken since last week: 266 - 166 - 150 - 125 - 134 (now)
The higher lows were as follows: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103

Broken I would not agree with yet as you can simply remove the 125: 266 -166 -150 -134 (now)

The higher lows is true though. So I would agree it's not clear cut.

However, this forum is still very bullish. Where are the doubts?

There is plenty of doubt among those who are new to bitcoin, or have even just heard about it but aren't sure about it.

You're in an echo chamber that will always be bullish on bitcoin.  Duh.

+1 but that doesnt mean the price can't go sideways. lol

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May 26, 2013, 09:12:26 AM
 #48

I thought it was some "BEER"...lol
Still gambling may not the best option for spending the coins, as far as I am concerned.

How is gambling related to this thread?

Quote
Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods.

Sounds to me like asset speculation fits right in there.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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Anon136
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May 26, 2013, 09:23:48 AM
 #49

you are probably right but fortunately i know my own limitations. i know that im not smart enough to trade technicals. i will continue to sit patiently on my small pile and observe what ever happens or doesnt. if my bitcoins make me rich i will use them to purchase an opulent lifestyle someday, if they do not than i will ride that train all the way to the bottom of the ocean, shrug my shoulders and move on.

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
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May 29, 2013, 04:16:22 AM
 #50

Thanks for sharing Smiley Very interesting to hear how you also look at your different parts. Has your gut been mostly right or wrong in the past? What about your intellectual side?
My intellectual side has thought the same thing since about March 2012: long-term confidence in the technology, short-term the only sure thing is massive volatility. That's not much of a contention, but it's proven fairly accurate

My gut has been on a roller-coaster, especially since January. During the run-up, there were times when I said to myself, "you'd better buy in, 'it' is finally happening!" There were other times that I said to myself "it's gotta crash soon, cash out while you can!" In the end, aside from one impulse buy around $120, I silenced these instincts - in any case they failed to call the top and seriously misread the crash several times - and stuck to the plan, which has been slowly but surely making me money since I bought in over a year ago.

(This is not why I don't trust my gut. I don't trust my gut because even in the best case it works without me understanding why, and without any guarantee that it'll work again tomorrow. In a zero-sum game that most people play emotionally, an emotionless, tested strategy is how you win.)

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
RationalSpeculator
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May 29, 2013, 06:21:23 AM
 #51

I thought it was some "BEER"...lol
Still gambling may not the best option for spending the coins, as far as I am concerned.

How is gambling related to this thread?

Quote
Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods.

Sounds to me like asset speculation fits right in there.

An important difference being that with gambling your chances of winning are statistically lower than losing. With asset speculation, if done well, you only bet on things that have a higher chance of winning than of losing. Risk/reward calculations and all that...

And if you ask me the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin right now is not favorable. Compared to for example the risk/reward of an investment in Satoshi Dice. And short term I would say that even the risk/reward ratio of dollars is better than bitcoins.
notme
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May 29, 2013, 06:31:53 AM
 #52

I thought it was some "BEER"...lol
Still gambling may not the best option for spending the coins, as far as I am concerned.

How is gambling related to this thread?

Quote
Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as "the stakes") on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods.

Sounds to me like asset speculation fits right in there.

An important difference being that with gambling your chances of winning are statistically lower than losing. With asset speculation, if done well, you only bet on things that have a higher chance of winning than of losing. Risk/reward calculations and all that...

And if you ask me the risk/reward ratio of bitcoin right now is not favorable. Compared to for example the risk/reward of an investment in Satoshi Dice. And short term I would say that even the risk/reward ratio of dollars is better than bitcoins.

The wikipedia makes no mention of a house advantage being necessary to make it gambling.

It gives speculation a solid maybe, and I'm happy to leave it there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling#Other_uses_of_the_term_.22gambling.22


https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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