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Author Topic: ManBearPig's Annotated, Updated BTC/USD Chart for 2013, May 24th  (Read 1170 times)
ManBearPig
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May 24, 2013, 05:13:57 PM
 #1



I post this as something, at last, happens. Though the past 7 days (almost precisely) have seen the most stable BTC price since just before the 20-fold rise, some would say stability is boring: a week is a long time in the cryptocurrency markets and few would buy into the cliche that, "No news is good news."

With my last chart of May 16th, I was all but ready to throw away my "blue line" trend showing 1.86% average daily growth between January and March of 2013. Did it cease to be meaningful as a trend to predict future performance by as soon as that daily growth spiked to 4, 5, 6% day on day? Perhaps not, as twice on the recovery it seemed to bounce off a line parallel but below my blue line.

If you've seen my charts before you'll know I'm no soothsayer. I don't like to predict prices because...well I don't think I'm not very good at it. If ever I produce a chart solely for the purpose of bragging how prescient I am, you'll know about it. Hey, if you're feeling prescient yourself, tell me when I'll do it Wink

As a side-note, today's rise happened at EXACTLY the same time I took the bulk of my Bitcoins off of the two exchanges I use and placed them into cold storage. It prompted one of those moments where I look over my shoulder, quickly, full of paranoia, ready to catch a wayward cameraman running out of view, a la the Truman Show. I didn't spot any but I'm still not convinced.

Disclaimer: the disclaimers are back.

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
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phatsphere
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May 24, 2013, 09:03:18 PM
 #2

I think you cannot draw that blue dashed line after the spike happened. i suggest to make one or more parallel ones …

apart from that, that's just a nice drawing to extract some sense of a simplified underlying pattern. do you know what "hidden markov models" are?
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May 24, 2013, 09:47:47 PM
 #3

I think a new trendline is forming. One that starts  at the dip in April 16-23 and extends to where we are now. I have no experience with legit TA though. It just seems like we have been following that slope.

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May 24, 2013, 10:11:32 PM
 #4

I think a new trendline is forming. One that starts  at the dip in April 16-23 and extends to where we are now. I have no experience with legit TA though. It just seems like we have been following that slope.

I'm no expert either, but perhaps a line approximating the bottoms on the chart might work? Something similar to this red line?


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May 26, 2013, 02:18:51 PM
 #5

I think a new trendline is forming. One that starts  at the dip in April 16-23 and extends to where we are now. I have no experience with legit TA though. It just seems like we have been following that slope.

I should not do that, and this is why:

Mt.Gox was closed during a part of the "BTC-crash". It even hit  almost 50$ on bitstamp (I can prove it, some of my automatic orders bought some Smiley )

So we should just look at the Mt.Gox price for trends, not for bottoms based on 'price spikes' either (up or down) because those prices are never the same on all the exchanges. But the trends ARE the same on the different exchanges.

I still belive in the Almighty Blue Line. I guess we will see an overshoot in the coming days towards 180$-200$ and then we will see a smaller drop below the Blue Line to 150$-160$.
After that, we will probably see steady growth at 1.8% daily, just like before the crash.

This is my guess, take it or leave it Smiley

edit:

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