That last second field goal..
NFL has the most variance. From week to week, we get a clearer and clearer picture of the skill sets on each team, but the sheer variance of a 60 minute football game makes it so anything can happen.
Models and predictions surrounding the NFL are the least accurate. MLB baseball is down to a science, while NFL still seems to have some art to it.
Tonight's game we have Indy. Despite the terrible nature of the squad, the odds being offered on Indy were just too good to pass up. One can't expect to win this bet more than 1 in 4 times, but when offered 6-to-1 on the proposition, the smart money says to fire away.