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Author Topic: May 25 2013 - Another Gox P'n'D or legit price increase?  (Read 839 times)
keatonatron
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May 25, 2013, 07:19:01 AM
 #1

Hey everyone,

The price slowly rose to $125 then jumped to $132 quite quickly. Looking at the Gox order book, again I'm seeing hundreds of orders for 0.01 BTC spread over negligible price differences. I didn't notice these a few days ago, and as has been discussed before they seem to be the telltale sign of a Pump 'n' Dump™ maneuver.

Is this more market manipulation, or is the price increase driven by a legitimate increase of demand versus supply?

I put this in the speculation section (because no one can say for sure!) but I would appreciate hard evidence or at least good logic when answers are given.

Thanks!

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May 25, 2013, 07:29:16 AM
 #2

Hey everyone,

The price slowly rose to $125 then jumped to $132 quite quickly. Looking at the Gox order book, again I'm seeing hundreds of orders for 0.01 BTC spread over negligible price differences. I didn't notice these a few days ago, and as has been discussed before they seem to be the telltale sign of a Pump 'n' Dump™ maneuver.

Is this more market manipulation, or is the price increase driven by a legitimate increase of demand versus supply?

I put this in the speculation section (because no one can say for sure!) but I would appreciate hard evidence or at least good logic when answers are given.

Thanks!

I'm not sure you can pump and dump within a $5-$7 range. To "pump" it up to $132 took a bunch of 100k-500K USD market orders. So now it's $132 and you have a bunch of coins. You sell those 10k coins, because of slippage you might end up getting on average $126-$127 for them.

Seems like a lot of money to make $1-$2 per BTC. Pumping and dumping is usually on a bigger scale, it's inherently risky to begin with so you need a decent margin to play with.

We had a lot of people waiting for cheaper coins (sub $100) which didn't happen. Old people getting back in, some new buyers, some good news the last few weeks, good stability, people were in a buying mood. A 5% jump is pretty small compared to the 30% swings we had, I don't think this slow rise in price is fishy.

Now if we hit $150 next week, that's when I'd expect it to get slapped back down to $135 type range. This really wasn't that big of a move.

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keatonatron
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May 25, 2013, 07:44:22 AM
 #3

This really wasn't that big of a move.

I agree. And I didn't mean we were in for a sudden drop back to $125 by manipulation--I was wondering if this might be the start of the pump to $150  Grin

The 0.01 btc orders have always seemed fishy, but they seemed to be reduced when Gox updated their software. But now they are back which doesn't bode well for stability...

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May 25, 2013, 08:16:22 AM
 #4

This really wasn't that big of a move.

I agree. And I didn't mean we were in for a sudden drop back to $125 by manipulation--I was wondering if this might be the start of the pump to $150  Grin

The 0.01 btc orders have always seemed fishy, but they seemed to be reduced when Gox updated their software. But now they are back which doesn't bode well for stability...

At least in my view, there's been a lot less manipulation, less pumping and dumping, for a few weeks now. You don't see nearly as many fake walls, far fewer 5-10k coin dumps, a little less FUD, fewer DDoS attacks, I think it just got harder to push the market around. Less panic sellers, more people holding. Anytime it drops now, it's cheap coins. It's much much much harder to push the market down just by dumping coins. It used to be a big coin dump would sucker in panic sellers left right and center. Now it's a value play for cheaper coins.

It's also harder to push the market up. People worried about "bubbles" and "crashes" they take a little profit much sooner. The ask walls we see now are real, people really wanting to sell, and it's a lot slower eating through walls that don't get pulled.

If we do rally to $150, sure it will be a little fishy. But that's fine, sell your coins at $150, then re-buy when it slides down. Every market has maniulation, just go with the flow, make money on the way up and down.  Grin

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  ✓Assurance     ✓Price Discovery     ✓Liquidity     ✓Low Fees





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keatonatron
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May 25, 2013, 08:28:32 AM
 #5

Thanks for your input!

Your theories fit with what I have seen as well.

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May 30, 2013, 10:36:14 PM
 #6

Just a general comparison to other markets, any price rise on substantially below average volume should not be trusted.  It may not be a pump and dump, but higher volumes (hence higher overall trade value) are more reliable price signals than low volumes.
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