Bearish market

[Zuilhsa]

Bearish as you say but i think it's done the price correction is done and it is all getting back again on track to rise again. China's banning of ICO's and exchanges totally is not a lose but in fact it's an opportunity to the market for them to buy such a cheap price of bitcoin and sooner they will sell it at the higher price rate.

The price has raised but still it is not stabilized, we are not in a stage to predict anything, it can be even bearish for few days and takes some time to become normal. This period provides good chance for buyers and I hope in short it becomes bullish again.

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[jellyhashman]

Bearish as you say but i think it's done the price correction is done and it is all getting back again on track to rise again. China's banning of ICO's and exchanges totally is not a lose but in fact it's an opportunity to the market for them to buy such a cheap price of bitcoin and sooner they will sell it at the higher price rate.

The price has raised but still it is not stabilized, we are not in a stage to predict anything, it can be even bearish for few days and takes some time to become normal. This period provides good chance for buyers and I hope in short it becomes bullish again.

Some fear for the hard fork possibility , so untill November there will be no stability. But then it can be bullish again.

[SaShiRaJaVu]

When the price of bitcoin breached the $4000 support level i expected the price would test the $3000 support level and it happened and now it is recovering and could test the resistance level once again and i am sure these news will be forgotten pretty soon and the bull market will be back in a very short period.

[tittensor]

When the price of bitcoin breached the $4000 support level i expected the price would test the $3000 support level and it happened and now it is recovering and could test the resistance level once again and i am sure these news will be forgotten pretty soon and the bull market will be back in a very short period.

If the price of Bitcoin does not falls down bellow $3,000 it cannot makes traders doubt the future of Bitcoin and whales also could not earn profit from us . That is reason we should keep patience for wait a miracle.

[squatter]

May be all this situation with China restrictions will be a good thing for Bitcoin in long period. Bitcoin depends on China miners/markets/news too much for now.

In the long term, yes. This will temporarily stifle the Chinese markets and crypto sector. That will allow the US, Japan and others to increase their respective market shares in regards to trading (spot and derivatives).

However, there is a twist here. Bitmain is the largest chip manufacturer in the industry. They just stopped taking BTC payments (payable internationally). Now they are only accepting CNY payments. They didn't accept CNY payments previously.

That means two things. Mining may become even more centralized within China because international customers can no longer pay in BTC. It also means that, for the time being, the only way to legally invest CNY into BTC is to buy mining hardware. It creates a very interesting situation, and I'm not sure exactly what it means for the price.

Doesn't that also mean that there is a gap on the industry to meet the international demand for mining chips, that is, without converting going through the trouble of converting your money to CNY?

I'd say this is an opportunity for another company to step up and grab the lion's share.

I saw the above news posted in a well-circulated tweet (from a couple days ago, can't find it now). However, I went to Bitmain's shop and it appears that they are still taking payment in USD wires, at least according to the product pages I looked at. It sounds like they may be preparing to make the change, though. We have to wait and see. It seems like the PBOC is serious this time.

As for the ASIC manufacturing opportunity, it looks like two Japanese conglomerates (GMO and DMM Group) are entering the chip manufacturing sector. They are making major investments into both chip manufacturing and pool infrastructure:
www.newsbtc.com/.../japanese-e-commerce-giant-dmm-unveils-bitcoin-mining-plans/
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/japanese-company-will-launch-new-bitcoin-mining-operation-7-nm-chips/

[CyberKuro]

Good afternoon,

in my opinion, we are in a bearish market, caused by all these days chinese news.

Sadly, the Bitcoin has broken the bullish trend, and next (weak) support seems to be around $3450, but I expect a stronger support between 2650 and 2850 US$
Wishing to read any better opinions.

obviously, but bitcoin already recover now, persist at $3600-$3700.
People still waiting for the next massive sell off I guess, but who knows what will happen by the end of this week.
If bitcoin can not surpass $4000 mark in few days, usually people tend to sell due to uncertainty of the market.
I am not sure whether the storm has passed or there will be another one coming toward us in the nearly future, just be prepared.

[ragnar0k]

Good afternoon,

in my opinion, we are in a bearish market, caused by all these days chinese news.

Sadly, the Bitcoin has broken the bullish trend, and next (weak) support seems to be around $3450, but I expect a stronger support between 2650 and 2850 US$
Wishing to read any better opinions.

obviously, but bitcoin already recover now, persist at $3600-$3700.
People still waiting for the next massive sell off I guess, but who knows what will happen by the end of this week.
If bitcoin can not surpass $4000 mark in few days, usually people tend to sell due to uncertainty of the market.
I am not sure whether the storm has passed or there will be another one coming toward us in the nearly future, just be prepared.

I have no idea what you guys see but in my charts the bullish trend is alive and well. In fact, we can take easily another dip to 2.8k and still be bullish.
If we go up now and stabilize in fact, it will create an even steeper bullish line...

[fabiorem]

We are on a bear market for many days now.

This is not a real recovery. For a recovery price would be above $4000 already and new floor established.

There was a bear trap, tough, so I hope things can be normal in some two weeks.

[eaLiTy]

If the price of Bitcoin does not falls down bellow $3,000 it cannot makes traders doubt the future of Bitcoin and whales also could not earn profit from us . That is reason we should keep patience for wait a miracle.

We really do not need to wait for a miracle as the price went down simply because of the FUD news and the market corrected because there was a heavy selling in bitcoin because China is restricting the ICO market and it has nothing to do with bitcoin and still the market corrected itself and so you do not need a miracle as there is nothing to worry and the market will recover eventually.

[xypos]

Good afternoon,

in my opinion, we are in a bearish market, caused by all these days chinese news.

Sadly, the Bitcoin has broken the bullish trend, and next (weak) support seems to be around $3450, but I expect a stronger support between 2650 and 2850 US$
Wishing to read any better opinions.

The previous rise in price is looking like a bear trap right now.

Price is down 8.5% today to $3400 and seems to be constantly falling. I do think that the floor is still at around $3000 and should prove to hold up fairly decently. However, the Chinese exchanges haven't actually closed right now and when they close it's a different story.

An adjustment down to $2500 to kickstart a very long bear market could be possible next month, if BTCChina does close down and others follow.

[Kyraishi]

Good afternoon,

in my opinion, we are in a bearish market, caused by all these days chinese news.

Sadly, the Bitcoin has broken the bullish trend, and next (weak) support seems to be around $3450, but I expect a stronger support between 2650 and 2850 US$
Wishing to read any better opinions.

China seems to be confirming that they will be closing down all exchanges, and BTCC has announced that they will cease operation fairly soon. This is the main reason of the bear market right now.

If everything that is rumored to happen does get carried out(aka, all exchanges go under), then i think that this will be the start of a pretty long 'bitcoin recession for sure'.

Support seems to be at $2900-3000 and holding there right now. This month we shouldn't see anything under that level.

[hatshepsut93]

So far this "bear market" was only a few days long, as the price is now only $300-400 lower than before we started getting stronger rumors about possible ban. By definition, the real bear market is when some asset is decreasing in its price for a long period of time, which is not what really happened now. Of course time flows faster in Bitcoin world, because it's traded 24/7, but still we are very far from declaring bear market. The price has been increasing for more than 1.5 years and there's still a lot of momentum. And if you'll think about fundamentals, you'll notice that recently a lot of companies and governments were in fact embracing Bitcoin, so we are still in a bull market, and it may last really long.

We are definitely still in a bull market based on any long term technical indicators (trend lines, moving averages). The larger trend is clearly up. But within trends, there are corrective periods. Context is everything: The 2014-2015 bear market was just a corrective period, but it was extremely painful for bulls, especially those who remained bullish long after the December 2013 top.

So, in that vein, we could still go lower yet and still be in a bull market. Even Masterluc now expects a run to the lower $2000s (after a bounce to the lower $4000s).

I personally don't trust that much in technical analysis, because it's more of a tool for predicting price solely on the past movements, while ignoring the fact that the price is usually moved by some events. For example, there won't be any dip to $2,800 without China's ban. But 2014-2015 market seems like an anomaly to me, there is no good explanation why the price was so low, Mt.Gox was just an exchange and not part of the Bitcoin protocol, so probably it has something to do with China having the largest share of trading volume and rumors that it can be banned at any time. So in this light we can see current rally as a product of legalization effort in developed countries like Japan, Korea and the US, while the Chinese influence has been diminishing.

[JohnnyUranus]

Go bulls go! No need for bears here We can manage without China. There is anyway a rising global demand for btc.

[panju1]

I would call it hypervolatile at the moment.
There is still a lot of unceratinty in the market, and we have no clue if we have already seen the endgame of the chinese regulation politics.
I can't tell if the recent events brought so many people out of bitcoin that that market will become bearish over a longer period of time.
Most of the I expect to come back.

I don't think it can be called hypervolatile. Bitcoin is just looking for the next driver to make an upward or downward move. If the news flow is Good, we may have a bull run in spite of the Chinese crackdown.

[exstasie]

So far this "bear market" was only a few days long, as the price is now only $300-400 lower than before we started getting stronger rumors about possible ban. By definition, the real bear market is when some asset is decreasing in its price for a long period of time, which is not what really happened now. Of course time flows faster in Bitcoin world, because it's traded 24/7, but still we are very far from declaring bear market. The price has been increasing for more than 1.5 years and there's still a lot of momentum. And if you'll think about fundamentals, you'll notice that recently a lot of companies and governments were in fact embracing Bitcoin, so we are still in a bull market, and it may last really long.

We are definitely still in a bull market based on any long term technical indicators (trend lines, moving averages). The larger trend is clearly up. But within trends, there are corrective periods. Context is everything: The 2014-2015 bear market was just a corrective period, but it was extremely painful for bulls, especially those who remained bullish long after the December 2013 top.

So, in that vein, we could still go lower yet and still be in a bull market. Even Masterluc now expects a run to the lower $2000s (after a bounce to the lower $4000s).

I personally don't trust that much in technical analysis, because it's more of a tool for predicting price solely on the past movements, while ignoring the fact that the price is usually moved by some events.

No, that's not true. There are different kinds of TA. Predicative TA systems like Elliott Wave -- yes, past price fractals are the basis for predictions. But that's not to say that price is moved by news and not the TA. Most analysts will tell you that news events are merely "catalysts" to moves that the chart was already predicting. Other types of TA merely tries to detect trends -- i.e. not predictive but lagging. The point there is ride trends until they end.

For example, there won't be any dip to $2,800 without China's ban.

You can't possibly know that. The China ban may have given the market a reason to fall faster than it would have otherwise, but how do you know that price wouldn't have dipped anyway? How do you know where true price support was, if not the bottom near $3000?

[squatter]

We are on a bear market for many days now.

This is not a real recovery. For a recovery price would be above $4000 already and new floor established.

I'm not sure that's true. We bounced ~ 30% in a day; that's an incredible recovery and shows real demand from the bulls. Still, I won't make any grand predictions. And if Lucif is bearish, then bulls better be careful.

But I don't think that $4000 is necessarily meaningful. We had a strong relief rally, and are currently bull flagging. If bulls can manage to break and hold above the $4400 level (major supply zone and price pivot), then I think the bull market is still on.