Profitability calculator - accurate?

[halfawake]

One of my friends pointed me to this link: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ - and I'm just curious if this profitability calculator is at all close to accurate.  I don't mine, I'm thinking of mining eventually, but a 10 day payback period seems really quick for solo miners.

[1714031662]

1714031662

[OnkelPaul]

Due to the rapid increase of difficulty (and corresponding decrease of mining returns) any mining rig that does not pay for itself within a relatively short time will not be very profitable at all.

Onkel Paul

[halfawake]

Due to the rapid increase of difficulty (and corresponding decrease of mining returns) any mining rig that does not pay for itself within a relatively short time will not be very profitable at all.

Onkel Paul

Ah, so while it may pay for itself in 10 days, the amount of bitcoins generated thereafter will diminish rapidly.  That makes sense.

[Eastwind]

By the time you get the fast mining rig, the difficulty will be so high that you might not break even. Try this website http://bitclockers.com/miningcalculator and set the mining difficulty to be 35% a month.

[halfawake]

By the time you get the fast mining rig, the difficulty will be so high that you might not break even. Try this website http://bitclockers.com/miningcalculator and set the mining difficulty to be 35% a month.

35% - wow, I didn't know it was that high.  Sounds like if you're going to bet on the price going up, you're much better off just straight up buying bitcoins off an exchange than mining them yourself.

[Bitcoinorama]

By the time you get the fast mining rig, the difficulty will be so high that you might not break even. Try this website http://bitclockers.com/miningcalculator and set the mining difficulty to be 35% a month.

35% - wow, I didn't know it was that high.  Sounds like if you're going to bet on the price going up, you're much better off just straight up buying bitcoins off an exchange than mining them yourself.

Potentially, yes.

[Eastwind]

By the time you get the fast mining rig, the difficulty will be so high that you might not break even. Try this website http://bitclockers.com/miningcalculator and set the mining difficulty to be 35% a month.

35% - wow, I didn't know it was that high.  Sounds like if you're going to bet on the price going up, you're much better off just straight up buying bitcoins off an exchange than mining them yourself.

The difficulty level was 8.9M when I started mining on 25 April. It is 12M now. That is an increase of 34% in a month. With more and more ASIC coming to market, I think 35% per month is a reasonable estimate.

Mining revenue is about twice of my electricity cost. If I have the existing hardware, I will just mine until the revenue is the same as my electricity cost. It  is still cheaper than buying BTC directly.

[GigaWave]

Keep in mind the Tsunami of ASICs is coming. Some time in the next few months the difficulty will skyrocket.

[FCTaiChi]

This list might be easier.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=209750

The problem like they said is that you're not going to get your machine right away.  For those who have their ASICs right now...  yeah...

[halfawake]

This list might be easier.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=209750

The problem like they said is that you're not going to get your machine right away.  For those who have their ASICs right now...  yeah...

Yeah, good point.  Seriously thinking of buying 1 BTC as an investment, but I think I'll hold off on getting an actual ASIC for now.

[glendall]

Because your new OP, and the Butterfly Labs ads are always present, conveniently, on the most popular bitcoin mining calculator webpage, I just want to let you know, in case you haven't heard it yet, that any order from BFL will highly likely not be delivered in 2 months like the website makes it out to be.

[YipYip]

800,000 Avalon chips are going to drop in August each does about ~300 Mh this is 240 Terra or a trippling of the network in 4 weeks

BFL will be lucky to have shipped 5000 out of the 60000 they have on back order for All of their products

They have currently shipped ~150 on the 5GH low end units and do not have a working LC or SC 30\60GH unit and still 59,850 units on back order

This is just avalon let alone all the other ASIC guys current and coming online

[Slipage]

When the average person cannot mine due to diff, thousands of people get burnt by pre orders, unable to resell due to diff, the hype will move out of bitcoin, and will be for the big players with bigger mining rigs etc.

What happened when the hype will leave ,the value will go down and stay down.

Interest will move over to litecoin but the diff there is Also getting pointless unless you have free electricity .

Unfortunately all this greed will be the end of bitcoin.

The smart ones will have made there millions and moved on way before this happens.

[pikeadz]

 

800,000 Avalon chips are going to drop in August each does about ~300 Mh this is 240 Terra or a trippling of the network in 4 weeks

BFL will be lucky to have shipped 5000 out of the 60000 they have on back order for All of their products

They have currently shipped ~150 on the 5GH low end units and do not have a working LC or SC 30\60GH unit and still 59,850 units on back order

This is just avalon let alone all the other ASIC guys current and coming online

You are assuming they will magically place themselves in a working PCB, ship themselves out, and start hashing away with no problems.  Look how may problems BFL and Avalon have faced the past year.  Do you really think all these fly-by-night companies are not going to have problems as well?

The difficulty will triple, quadruple, etc.  But it won't happen overnight.  Stop with the doomsday scenarios people.

[Eastwind]

800,000 Avalon chips are going to drop in August each does about ~300 Mh this is 240 Terra or a trippling of the network in 4 weeks

BFL will be lucky to have shipped 5000 out of the 60000 they have on back order for All of their products

They have currently shipped ~150 on the 5GH low end units and do not have a working LC or SC 30\60GH unit and still 59,850 units on back order

This is just avalon let alone all the other ASIC guys current and coming online

You are assuming they will magically place themselves in a working PCB, ship themselves out, and start hashing away with no problems.  Look how may problems BFL and Avalon have faced the past year.  Do you really think all these fly-by-night companies are not going to have problems as well?

The difficulty will triple, quadruple, etc.  But it won't happen overnight.  Stop with the doomsday scenarios people.

It is happening now. Difficulty jumped 28% last time. It is predicted to jump 18% in next 2 weeks.

[KSV]

yup guessing the difficulty is key.

[KSV]

When the average person cannot mine due to diff, thousands of people get burnt by pre orders, unable to resell due to diff, the hype will move out of bitcoin, and will be for the big players with bigger mining rigs etc.

What happened when the hype will leave ,the value will go down and stay down.

Interest will move over to litecoin but the diff there is Also getting pointless unless you have free electricity .

Unfortunately all this greed will be the end of bitcoin.

The smart ones will have made there millions and moved on way before this happens.

would love to see this happen, i dont think it will.

[KSV]

By the time you get the fast mining rig, the difficulty will be so high that you might not break even. Try this website http://bitclockers.com/miningcalculator and set the mining difficulty to be 35% a month.

35% - wow, I didn't know it was that high.  Sounds like if you're going to bet on the price going up, you're much better off just straight up buying bitcoins off an exchange than mining them yourself.

The difficulty level was 8.9M when I started mining on 25 April. It is 12M now. That is an increase of 34% in a month. With more and more ASIC coming to market, I think 35% per month is a reasonable estimate.

Mining revenue is about twice of my electricity cost. If I have the existing hardware, I will just mine until the revenue is the same as my electricity cost. It  is still cheaper than buying BTC directly.

he quite sums it up, well said

[Moebius327]

try this calculator with Difficulty change (from cycle to cycle))

http://minercharts.com

[FCTaiChi]

Interesting site, wonder what method they're using..

[bcpokey]

Interesting site, wonder what method they're using..

It says what method in the settings you select.

[krasnolud]

Interesting site, wonder what method they're using..

You can read about the algorithm here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=226353.0