A sprinkle of realism ...

[ScotiaInvest]

... or am I being unreasonably pessimistic?

I only joined this forum a week or so ago and I'm loving it, all the different topics, all the different opinions and views.  I think I'm in danger of getting the 'investing in crypto' bug and I'm gradually gearing up to dipping my toe, probably in BTC and ETH.

However, hold on a sec.  This forum, understandably, is full of people that buy into the concept of cryptocurrency, have invested various sums, trade in the stuff and so on.  My point?  Everyone on here wants to see the value of cryptocurrency rise ... and rise ... and rise.

None of us have a crystal ball, if we did we'd be multi billionaires, however as much as I like the projected idea of BTC being worth <insert very high monitory value here> in 5-10 years, is this sort of projection valid?  Are we perhaps seeing an expected slowing down and perhaps even slight plateauing of BTC and an end to significant increases week by week?

As I say everyone on here quite rightly want to see the likes of BTC increase exponentially over the coming years, however we're all excited by the whole crypto thing.  Are we therefore at risk of looking at the whole thing through rose tinted glasses, basing our hopes on the increases of the last few years that, surely, can't continue?

Am I right ... or wrong?

[Hydrogen]

Bitcoin's value and growth potential could be overall factors of the size of its userbase.

Crypto hasn't yet reached a saturation point where it can be considered fully mainstream. That's where the "buy a coffee with bitcoin" and past push for more mainstream crypto comes from. The idea that there could still be a massive price hike in the value of bitcoin if it becomes more widely adopted. The engineering that went with that campaign in terms of bigger blocks may have been flawed in ways but the underlying financial analysis may have been sound.

Crypto's value could be like the difference between a PC game with a userbase of 500 players and a PC game with a userbase of 50 million players. Being more mainstream could translate to greater revenue, growth and value. If that's true in crypto's case the price could still have plenty of growth potential.

[Yuhee]

Bitcoin's value and growth potential could be overall factors of the size of its userbase.

Crypto hasn't yet reached a saturation point where it can be considered fully mainstream. That's where the "buy a coffee with bitcoin" and past push for more mainstream crypto comes from. The idea that there could still be a massive price hike in the value of bitcoin if it becomes more widely adopted. The engineering that went with that campaign in terms of bigger blocks may have been flawed in ways but the underlying financial analysis may have been sound.

Crypto's value could be like the difference between a PC game with a userbase of 500 players and a PC game with a userbase of 50 million players. Being more mainstream could translate to greater revenue, growth and value. If that's true in crypto's case the price could still have plenty of growth potential.

Good point! Further more bitcoin is still in the process of being accepted as norm from the government. From the government side, bitcoin is virtual and they really can't have a full control of it that's why it is in the process of being in the mainstream. Users of bitcoin varies from different kind of social level thus it safe to say that all of the blocks of bitcoin are already spreading various populated cities in the world. Still a long way to go for local from indigenous areas to know how really bitcoin works.

[aardvark15]

... or am I being unreasonably pessimistic?

I only joined this forum a week or so ago and I'm loving it, all the different topics, all the different opinions and views.  I think I'm in danger of getting the 'investing in crypto' bug and I'm gradually gearing up to dipping my toe, probably in BTC and ETH.

However, hold on a sec.  This forum, understandably, is full of people that buy into the concept of cryptocurrency, have invested various sums, trade in the stuff and so on.  My point?  Everyone on here wants to see the value of cryptocurrency rise ... and rise ... and rise.

None of us have a crystal ball, if we did we'd be multi billionaires, however as much as I like the projected idea of BTC being worth <insert very high monitory value here> in 5-10 years, is this sort of projection valid?  Are we perhaps seeing an expected slowing down and perhaps even slight plateauing of BTC and an end to significant increases week by week?

As I say everyone on here quite rightly want to see the likes of BTC increase exponentially over the coming years, however we're all excited by the whole crypto thing.  Are we therefore at risk of looking at the whole thing through rose tinted glasses, basing our hopes on the increases of the last few years that, surely, can't continue?

Am I right ... or wrong?

The price of Bitcoin is and has always been volatile. It had a huge increase and is now experiencing a correction. Therefore, this is actually a good buying opportunity for someone that doesn't have any Bitcoins yet and wants to get in on it.

You could wait for another drop to $3000 or lower, but you might miss this chance if you wait too long. At some point, Bitcoin will creep back up to $5000 and you will have missed a chance to jump in. I would buy now, but I'm already fully invested and can't afford to put any more money into investments.

[Ch1bi]

You're right to be cautious. The thing is we don't know what the future has in store for Bitcoin. However, in recent years the value of Bitcoin has gone way up due to more people using it. It also has gone down, but that's the nature of cryptocurrencies. I would look into the past to see similar trends to what the market is experiencing now. Also take into account that as more Bitcoins are being mined the more valuable each coin will be. From there you should make a judgment to see if you want to invest a bit into crypto.

Sure the exponential growth may not last forever, but the market is still new so there's still room for growth.

[TagaMungkahi]

... or am I being unreasonably pessimistic?

I only joined this forum a week or so ago and I'm loving it, all the different topics, all the different opinions and views.  I think I'm in danger of getting the 'investing in crypto' bug and I'm gradually gearing up to dipping my toe, probably in BTC and ETH.

However, hold on a sec.  This forum, understandably, is full of people that buy into the concept of cryptocurrency, have invested various sums, trade in the stuff and so on.  My point?  Everyone on here wants to see the value of cryptocurrency rise ... and rise ... and rise.

None of us have a crystal ball, if we did we'd be multi billionaires, however as much as I like the projected idea of BTC being worth <insert very high monitory value here> in 5-10 years, is this sort of projection valid?  Are we perhaps seeing an expected slowing down and perhaps even slight plateauing of BTC and an end to significant increases week by week?

As I say everyone on here quite rightly want to see the likes of BTC increase exponentially over the coming years, however we're all excited by the whole crypto thing.  Are we therefore at risk of looking at the whole thing through rose tinted glasses, basing our hopes on the increases of the last few years that, surely, can't continue?

Am I right ... or wrong?

You are (well, maybe or possibly) wrong in my opinion , This assumption is really a good example of unreasonably pessimistic. Dude, There are money a REAL money that flows to the system, it does not created on a thin air without actually spending money, well, some of the coins is really given for free ( which is somehow feels like a scam coun") but real cryptocurrency isn't just there poofing with a booming value, it is because of money flow demands and more elements. but i cannot be right that it will be here forever, but we cannot even say that we are just living to an imagination that one day we will wake up on the reality that cryptocurrency is just nothing.

[ceaa]

It is quite important to maintain a sense of realism and judge things as they are, rather than as they appear. In the case of cryptocurrency, if one looks at the money supply of an established but by no means big country like the UK, which stands at around 1.7 trillion as of July this year, one can see that cryptocurrency, with a combined market capitalization of 134 billion, is nowhere near the money supply of a single country, let alone that of an important player in the world economy, as no doubt it will occupy such a position in the future.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

I agree that you are doing good by being cautions. My only advice would be that if you finally invest in bitcoin just follow the classic investing principles: you have to understand something before you invest in it, otherwise you are simply speculation, or, even worse: gambling. Don’t put all your eggs in the same basket. Only invest money you don’t need and so on.

If after doing you research you invest using these principles, you are going to be relatively safe and if the investment goes well you will see very high returns.

[pooya87]

~ I think I'm in danger of getting the 'investing in crypto' bug and I'm gradually gearing up to dipping my toe, probably in BTC and ETH.

just try not to get emotional when you are making the decision to invest your money.

~Everyone on here wants to see the value of cryptocurrency rise ... and rise ... and rise.

not everyone. at least it is not their 100% intention. obviously everyone loves profit but many want bitcoin because of what it does not only because it has the potential to give them a huge profit.

Are we perhaps seeing an expected slowing down and perhaps even slight plateauing of BTC and an end to significant increases week by week?

not for a very long time.
the adoption is a process that is slow but the speed of it increases. it will become very fast in a period of time and when the adoption grew big (aka mass adoption) then the rise slows down. this won't happen for years.

As I say everyone on here quite rightly want to see the likes of BTC increase exponentially over the coming years, however we're all excited by the whole crypto thing.  Are we therefore at risk of looking at the whole thing through rose tinted glasses, basing our hopes on the increases of the last few years that, surely, can't continue?

Am I right ... or wrong?

it is not just hope. it is more of a fact to me! majority of people don't even know about bitcoin or they are greatly misinformed. like when they read an article or see something on TV where it calls bitcoin a fraud! they obviously stay away. but then they see huge companies in the same country are accepting bitcoin (like Microsoft and Dell,...) and then they realize what the bullshit they heard. slowly more people find out about bitcoin or correct their understanding and start wanting it. that leads to more adoption and higher price.

[SmokeMcPay]

Of realism ? Is known that to invest in bitcoin right now you need at least 10k usd, but if you manage to earn 10k and invest them into bitcoin your still a head of the world. realism is to known that is this the beggining of bitcoin the oportunity is not lost. people can't even buy a bot who does all the work for you.

[iram1011]

Why will Bitcoin has huge value in future?
 
A very simple economics theory works here. The reason is its limited cap. Almost 80% of Bitcoin cap is already mined and is in the market. Next 20% will take more than 100 years. But the Bitcoin holders are less than a hundred million and price is already hovering over $4000. Bitcoin is targeting the billion of internet user market. Supply as stated is limited but demand will rise exponentially and hence will the price. Bitcoin has inbuilt deflation.

Now comes the point why people be interested in buying Bitcoin?

The reason is it is solving a big problem that is it is free of any centralised institution that can drive your money according to their interest. Many people are parking their dollars in Bitcoin for saving them from manipulation by central authorities. In cases of economic crisis, Bitcoin will be safe heaven and we have seen that happening in some countries. Bitcoin is providing an online alternative to fiat with much better specifications. Use cases of Bitcoin might not be much right now. But will increase in future.

Journey has just started!

[Musia]

... or am I being unreasonably pessimistic?

I only joined this forum a week or so ago and I'm loving it, all the different topics, all the different opinions and views.  I think I'm in danger of getting the 'investing in crypto' bug and I'm gradually gearing up to dipping my toe, probably in BTC and ETH.

However, hold on a sec.  This forum, understandably, is full of people that buy into the concept of cryptocurrency, have invested various sums, trade in the stuff and so on.  My point?  Everyone on here wants to see the value of cryptocurrency rise ... and rise ... and rise.

None of us have a crystal ball, if we did we'd be multi billionaires, however as much as I like the projected idea of BTC being worth <insert very high monitory value here> in 5-10 years, is this sort of projection valid?  Are we perhaps seeing an expected slowing down and perhaps even slight plateauing of BTC and an end to significant increases week by week?

As I say everyone on here quite rightly want to see the likes of BTC increase exponentially over the coming years, however we're all excited by the whole crypto thing.  Are we therefore at risk of looking at the whole thing through rose tinted glasses, basing our hopes on the increases of the last few years that, surely, can't continue?

Am I right ... or wrong?

Bitcoin is still at the stage of virtual crypto currency, and nobody will know whether it will be adopted at the governmental level. But the meaning and potential to deny is stupid, more people are drawn into this process. Everything will show time and price, too.

[olubams]

Sometimes, being overly optimistic is not any way wrong because human beings by natural configuration is meant to wish for the best even though he might not have access to make it happen at the moment. Its true that every active users of bitcoin wants the price to go higher but at the same time no unmindful of somethings not planned for that might happen along the line. So, our quest for high price is not one that is blinded to the goal alone but cognisance of ups and down along the way.

[jseverson]

As I say everyone on here quite rightly want to see the likes of BTC increase exponentially over the coming years, however we're all excited by the whole crypto thing.  Are we therefore at risk of looking at the whole thing through rose tinted glasses, basing our hopes on the increases of the last few years that, surely, can't continue?

I know you haven't invested yet, but you're on the right path. You're correct to be pessimistic, and you're correct to assume that everyone here wants Bitcoin value to rise. People here tend to be more positive towards people compared to the general population, so you should take everything with a grain of salt. You should, then, do your own research, read up on both sides of the coin (pun intended), and form your own judgement.

I'd personally encourage you to invest though!

[cas606]

As I say everyone on here quite rightly want to see the likes of BTC increase exponentially over the coming years, however we're all excited by the whole crypto thing.  Are we therefore at risk of looking at the whole thing through rose tinted glasses, basing our hopes on the increases of the last few years that, surely, can't continue?

I know you haven't invested yet, but you're on the right path. You're correct to be pessimistic, and you're correct to assume that everyone here wants Bitcoin value to rise. People here tend to be more positive towards people compared to the general population, so you should take everything with a grain of salt. You should, then, do your own research, read up on both sides of the coin (pun intended), and form your own judgement.

I'd personally encourage you to invest though!

hi i am a btc and blockchain enthusiast, and I would like to learn what you think about the increasing scrutiny from regulators (as opposed to the seemingly openness last year and early this year), as well as the bank of international settlement cautioning all regulators to see cryptocurrencies as a threat (i assume that has something to do to its own existential considerations). What is your thoughts on this? Keen to learn more from the community. Thanks in advance!　

[rivoke]

Sometimes, being overly optimistic is not any way wrong because human beings by natural configuration is meant to wish for the best even though he might not have access to make it happen at the moment. Its true that every active users of bitcoin wants the price to go higher but at the same time no unmindful of somethings not planned for that might happen along the line. So, our quest for high price is not one that is blinded to the goal alone but cognisance of ups and down along the way.

IMO, especially my country, money still everything and they are very greed if they talk money. When bitcoin open a new opportunity , people are compete each other to own bitcoin and will do anything for it. For example : there will be some group that suggest to buy or not based on their own talk not reality

[Latviand]

... or am I being unreasonably pessimistic?

I only joined this forum a week or so ago and I'm loving it, all the different topics, all the different opinions and views.  I think I'm in danger of getting the 'investing in crypto' bug and I'm gradually gearing up to dipping my toe, probably in BTC and ETH.

However, hold on a sec.  This forum, understandably, is full of people that buy into the concept of cryptocurrency, have invested various sums, trade in the stuff and so on.  My point?  Everyone on here wants to see the value of cryptocurrency rise ... and rise ... and rise.

None of us have a crystal ball, if we did we'd be multi billionaires, however as much as I like the projected idea of BTC being worth <insert very high monitory value here> in 5-10 years, is this sort of projection valid?  Are we perhaps seeing an expected slowing down and perhaps even slight plateauing of BTC and an end to significant increases week by week?

As I say everyone on here quite rightly want to see the likes of BTC increase exponentially over the coming years, however we're all excited by the whole crypto thing.  Are we therefore at risk of looking at the whole thing through rose tinted glasses, basing our hopes on the increases of the last few years that, surely, can't continue?

Am I right ... or wrong?

I think that the people that you are seeing here are not versed really on cryptocurrency as yes we all know that we all want to see the value of bitcoin rise as it means more profit for us. But we also have to keep in mind that sometimes or most of the times the market fluctuates and we are really not sure on how the value of it can stand in a certain time. We all know this thats why some of us panic sells

[tavogi.com]

It is quite important to maintain a sense of realism and judge things as they are, rather than as they appear. In the case of cryptocurrency, if one looks at the money supply of an established but by no means big country like the UK, which stands at around 1.7 trillion as of July this year, one can see that cryptocurrency, with a combined market capitalization of 134 billion, is nowhere near the money supply of a single country, let alone that of an important player in the world economy, as no doubt it will occupy such a position in the future.

This is a good point. Another way to put it in context is that the value of all the gold in the world is about $7 trillion. There's still a ton of room for growth for both Bitcoin and the crypto market in general.

[pedrog]

Read the following article by Rick Falkvinge about the value of bitcoin and bear in mind it was published in March 2013 when bitcoin hit an all time high of $97 or so.

https://falkvinge.net/2013/03/06/the-target-value-for-bitcoin-is-not-some-50-or-100-it-is-100000-to-1000000/

[krishnapramod]

... or am I being unreasonably pessimistic?

I only joined this forum a week or so ago and I'm loving it, all the different topics, all the different opinions and views.  I think I'm in danger of getting the 'investing in crypto' bug and I'm gradually gearing up to dipping my toe, probably in BTC and ETH.

However, hold on a sec.  This forum, understandably, is full of people that buy into the concept of cryptocurrency, have invested various sums, trade in the stuff and so on.  My point?  Everyone on here wants to see the value of cryptocurrency rise ... and rise ... and rise.

None of us have a crystal ball, if we did we'd be multi billionaires, however as much as I like the projected idea of BTC being worth <insert very high monitory value here> in 5-10 years, is this sort of projection valid?  Are we perhaps seeing an expected slowing down and perhaps even slight plateauing of BTC and an end to significant increases week by week?

As I say everyone on here quite rightly want to see the likes of BTC increase exponentially over the coming years, however we're all excited by the whole crypto thing.  Are we therefore at risk of looking at the whole thing through rose tinted glasses, basing our hopes on the increases of the last few years that, surely, can't continue?

Am I right ... or wrong?

If Bitcoin didn't had any potential, it would have been long dead. Bitcoin has crossed the chasm between early adopters and early majority. The current Bitcoin adoption and the current demand reflects its price. The demand we have now is to an extent speculative in nature, but when long-term assumptions or predictions are made, it is not merely based on speculation, but Bitcoins utility as a store of value and a medium of exchange.

According to Satoshi Nakamoto.

A rational market price for something that is expected to increase in value will already reflect the present value of the expected future increases. In your head, you do a probability estimate balancing the odds that it keeps increasing.

Apart from being a store of value and medium of exchange, Bitcoin solves the problems of inflation, expropriation, taxes, financial repression and cross-border transactions. So basically the futuristic price of Bitcoin is dependent on its usefulness and the problems it solves.

Is the current price a reflection of the expected future increases. Yes, to an extent because Bitcoin has yet to evolve as a reliable medium of exchange, so it is an undervalued reflection.

So there is a rationale when people assume that Bitcoin price would increase in future.

[eternalgloom]

You definitely have a very healthy attitude towards investing in general, it's always smart to be very critical of something that you do not have experience or knowledge of.

That said, I'd say it's pretty likely that Bitcoin will continue to grow to even higher levels than we are seeing today.
Big investment funds are slowly but surely adopting Bitcoin in their portfolio, they bring billions of fresh marketcap to Bitcoin and they're driving the prices up.

Mind you, this is purely for speculation purposes, if Bitcoin sees massive increase of users also, the price will get pushed up even further and that will also provide some sort of safety net for when investors pull out.

Like with any investment, only invest what you're able or willing to lose, even if that scenario is very unlikely.

[ScotiaInvest]

Thanks for interesting replies everyone.  I feel now is the right time for me to start investing, just need to decide what my approach is going to be re purchasing, wallet type etc.  More reading here I come ...

[Mometaskers]

Bitcoin's value and growth potential could be overall factors of the size of its userbase.

Crypto hasn't yet reached a saturation point where it can be considered fully mainstream. That's where the "buy a coffee with bitcoin" and past push for more mainstream crypto comes from. The idea that there could still be a massive price hike in the value of bitcoin if it becomes more widely adopted. The engineering that went with that campaign in terms of bigger blocks may have been flawed in ways but the underlying financial analysis may have been sound.

Crypto's value could be like the difference between a PC game with a userbase of 500 players and a PC game with a userbase of 50 million players. Being more mainstream could translate to greater revenue, growth and value. If that's true in crypto's case the price could still have plenty of growth potential.

Couldn't have said it any better. The price as well as the uses would definitely go up as the user base widens. OP have every right to be cautious, after all, he'll be entering this at the $4000 per coin rate. Still, provided nothing catastrophic happen, I think it would still grow for a while and he'd still be able to gain some profit.