The comparison to one year ago is interesting, meanwhile the Btc today is exchanged at more than $100 so the break even is the same, with just less coins.
It's obvious that on paper an Fpga cannot compete with ASIC technology, the problem is that the vast majority of us got only preorders
And they don't mine anything
In my opinion Fpga mining is still profitable if you can setup everything -today- and squeeze the hardware until the ASIC "tsunami".
ASIC mining -today- with the first generation devices is expensive (actually more than Fpga, look at asicminer prices) and will suffer the same problem of everyone else with just a bit smaller electricity bill. With the difference that you have to wait in line losing money very other day.
Agreed, people who are buying ASICminer items at current pricing are more foolish than the current FPGAers.