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Author Topic: New mining calculator taking difficulty development into account  (Read 9925 times)
Malawi
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June 11, 2013, 12:12:43 PM
 #21

We're open for suggestions and improvements!

I have one suggestion - now there's possibility to set difficulty increase rate in percent. I think that the difficulty will rise in linear fashion now - the ASIC manufacturers have a constant rate of releasing new devices that depends on their manufacturing capabilities (it doesn't matter if they manufacture them for the customers or for themselves), so the total hashrate will rise linearly (on average). There will be changes in that increase rate - if one of these ASIC companies opens new manufacturing facilities. But it will be still close to linear.

I disagree.

ASICS manufacturers will increase their manufacturing capabilities if demand stays up. When the chip and board layout are finalized, they can order parts from lots of different producers. The problem with ASICs is not to ramp up and manufacture tons of them, but to do the initial design.

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June 11, 2013, 02:06:54 PM
 #22

I disagree.

ASICS manufacturers will increase their manufacturing capabilities if demand stays up. When the chip and board layout are finalized, they can order parts from lots of different producers. The problem with ASICs is not to ramp up and manufacture tons of them, but to do the initial design.

I don't think they are interested in demand - they should make miners for themselves. They race with other ASIC manufacturers. So the only limitation is their assembly capabilities. Which they will increase as soon as they can.

Until they reach a point where other "regular" miners are virtually eliminated (1,000 TH/s for each ASIC manufacturer?, 3-5 PH/s total?) - then it would be advisable to form a kind of cartel with other ASIC manufacturers to stop fighting each other, stop manufacturing more miners, wasting money and electicity, divide the market (the total hashing power) equally (or not) and keep mining until 2040 Smiley

P.
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June 18, 2013, 08:18:19 PM
 #23


Wonderful job! I am so glad that finally someone created a profitability calculator that provides people with a realistic idea of whether they will ever see back their money.

Warmly recommended to everybody!
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June 20, 2013, 08:45:00 AM
 #24

I don't want to be a party pooper but this calculator has been around for quite a while:

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/
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June 21, 2013, 06:27:16 PM
 #25

I don't want to be a party pooper but this calculator has been around for quite a while:

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

The difference is that this calculator does not properly account for the realistic decline in profitability. It assumes a decline factor of 0.61 per year.

The reality is closer to this rate of decline per month.
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June 22, 2013, 09:31:02 AM
 #26

The difference is that this calculator does not properly account for the realistic decline in profitability. It assumes a decline factor of 0.61 per year.

The reality is closer to this rate of decline per month.

You can easily account for this by changing the 0.61 to any number you like.
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June 22, 2013, 09:52:44 AM
 #27

We're open for suggestions and improvements!

Hi,

I have one suggestion - now there's possibility to set difficulty increase rate in percent. I think that the difficulty will rise in linear fashion now - the ASIC manufacturers have a constant rate of releasing new devices that depends on their manufacturing capabilities (it doesn't matter if they manufacture them for the customers or for themselves), so the total hashrate will rise linearly (on average). There will be changes in that increase rate - if one of these ASIC companies opens new manufacturing facilities. But it will be still close to linear.

So it would be nice to set daily increase rate (like 1,000,000 increase in difficulty per day). Calculator could suggest the value basing on, say, 7-days average.

P.

I made a few calculations like that the other day. I've copied them below.

I'll make the following assumptions:

    I start mining at the very start of a new difficulty round.
    The starting difficulty is based on a network hashrate of 500 Th/s.
    The network hash rate increases by 100 TH/s each new difficulty round.

This gives us the following data for a 5 Gh/s device:

Network Hash Rate = 500 Th/s, Difficulty = 69849193.0961609, BTC/round = 0.50475000
Network Hash Rate = 600 Th/s, Difficulty = 83819031.7153931, BTC/round = 0.42062500
Network Hash Rate = 700 Th/s, Difficulty = 97788870.3346252, BTC/round = 0.36053571
Network Hash Rate = 800 Th/s, Difficulty = 111758708.953857, BTC/round = 0.31546875
Network Hash Rate = 900 Th/s, Difficulty = 125728547.57309, BTC/round = 0.28041667
Network Hash Rate = 1000 Th/s, Difficulty = 139698386.192322, BTC/round = 0.25237500

That gives a total of 2.13417113 BTC for the 6 difficulty rounds. Since I ordered in April when BTC was at it's high, I'll recoup the cost for the device and make a profit after 4 rounds.

With the network hash rate at 1900 Th/s, I'd be making about the same as what I get now from my 300 Mh/s, which is still profitable.
what?
a 5 ghs at current difficulty, make only 0.13 btc...
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July 12, 2013, 09:08:00 AM
 #28

Error establishing a database connection
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July 16, 2013, 12:21:35 AM
 #29

For completeness sake, would like to see KnCMiner Mars/Mercury/Saturn/Jupiter as options
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July 16, 2013, 10:02:46 AM
 #30

Sorry if I am a bit unresponsive ATM - real life/work consumes 100% of my time Sad Will have some time in one or two weeks (hopefully).

Onkel Paul

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August 07, 2013, 05:55:14 PM
 #31

Great stuff. Thanks for this!

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September 08, 2013, 03:47:31 PM
 #32

Cool calculator. Thank you
Can you add those new chips/mining rigs that are hitting the market soon and maybe a little chart or table with monthly results.

Cheers!

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BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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November 05, 2013, 06:09:59 AM
 #33

Looks like the database error is back. It's a really useful calculator, though.
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February 02, 2014, 04:18:12 AM
 #34

Are you DDoSed or something? I am loading blank page, where is the calc?
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February 02, 2014, 10:44:39 AM
 #35

Are you DDoSed or something? I am loading blank page, where is the calc?

No problem accessing the page at this moment Smiley
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February 04, 2014, 06:13:32 AM
 #36

Quote
Looks like the database error is back. It's a really useful calculator, though.

I see no database error actually, try to refresh the page.

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