ok. lets say you buy more as the price go down and it ends up stablizing at 10.
you see, no one can really predict the market. and it could be that everyone is still in denial in what's going on right now. remember that bitcoin, although its a great idea as a whole, but as a currency has no intrinsic value of Bitcoin.
I agree, no one can predict the market (except, maybe if they're big enough that they can manipulate it). Next week it could shoot up to 200. Or it could drop to 25. Or it could go to 25, then 200. Or visa versa... But I would buy all the way down, say more each time it drops $20 in value, and I think many others are also perched with limit orders to buy on the way down (it's not just fear that drives a market, but also greed). I'm buying in at staggered lower values, attempting to accumulate BTC at lower values, with the belief the price will eventually go up. While I can't even make guesses at the short term market, I do have a belief in the longterm value
Of course, there's risk buying Bitcoin at any price (hopefully everyone knows that too). It may go down and never come back up. But I figure, even if there's a 90% chance BTC will fail, and a 10% chance BTC will be worth 5000% of the current value, the odds are that taking a lot of bets like that in life will pay off (just like a VC invests in a lot of promising startups knowing most will fail, but hoping one will be so successful as to make it very worth it). Many seasoned entrepreneurs who are way smarter than me are pouring millions into Bitcoin ventures, even with all the known risks. Regardless of the current volatility or price of BTC, many people believe Bitcoin will be huge in the future.
My gut interpretation of your statements, respectfully, is that you are trying to drive the price down. I'm not going to get into a discussion of (the lack of) intrinsic value of fiat currency vs. the (arguable) intrinsic value of Bitcoin, but I suggest anyone who hasn't already looked at that issue google the topic to see the arguments.
Forgetting intrinsic value and utility, most people in the world have never heard of Bitcoin. But if interest and innovation continues to grow as it has, and the barriers to entry are lowered (as they will be), we're in the very infancy of (at least) a huge speculative bubble. Add in the actual utility and innovation that Bitcoin brings to the table, and I think there's valid reason to speculate on long term price gains and success as a platform. There's so much that people with great minds have put into Bitcoin over the past few years... Rigs, money, innovation... And there are so many Bitcoin companies with entrepreneurs involved who have proven track records. I don't know how all this can be ignored, regardless of relatively short term trading patterns.
At Los Angeles Bitcoin meetup a few days ago, I spoke with extremely smart folks, mostly developers, who have been laser-focused on Bitcoin for several years, and have seen crazy volatility and crashes before the recent one. They've seen a lot, but have remained confident that the technology of Bitcoin is the future. They were attending meetups with 2-3 people a year or two ago. This meetup had 40-50 people, only a few of whom were relatively new to Bitcoin (as I am). I think newbies like us probably are seen as silly for even trying to talk about these issues. But clearly, even those of us who are relatively new have our beliefs.
