What is the long term value of Bitcoin ?

[virtualmaster]

What is the long term value of Bitcoin ? in 10 years
http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/02/calculating-the-long-term-value-of-a-bitcoin/

Store of Value. The world’s gold reserve is valued at $7.65 trillion.
Global Currency. World’s $3 trillion of currency value (inclusive Black Market).

How much percent could take Bitcoin from each ?
and is there a middle way ?

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[Carlton Banks]

Third Way:

Could it be possible that it could outvalue either or both? I believe it's almost certainly more valuable than all the money currently out there, and could also eclipse the value in all precious metals too. After all, absolute valuation of the gold supply in dollars is rapidly becoming pretty meaningless. The real value of the dollar (and the other main currencies) is also pretty contentious. Bitcoin's actual utility compared to Gold or the dollar is worlds apart, we know this already. And so, the only actual advantage that gold/dollar have is that of it's perception by the majority. We know that Bitcoin is a better a store of value, and better to transmit value with. It's just that they don't know it. Yet.

[WackyWilly]

Bitcoin's actual utility compared to Gold or the dollar is worlds apart, we know this already. And so, the only actual advantage that gold/dollar have is that of it's perception by the majority. We know that Bitcoin is a better a store of value, and better to transmit value with.

Well, let's be honest amoung us, BTC-proponents (yes, I am a proponent):

1. The actual utility of bitcoin may in some cases be a bit better than that of gold, but it is certainly not when compared to the dollar. Or any other fiat currency. Bitcoin is far from that level of utility. If you don't see that, you need to have a better look.
2. Perception of the majority (and trust in any asset) is always the issue. Be it gold. Be it USD. Be it real estate. Be it Bitcoin - TOO !
3. Therefore, Bitcoin will only be able to serve as a "better store of value" and means (utility) if it is supported by the general public.

If people don't support or value an idea/phenomenon, both of us may WISH for Bitcoin to be better than anything else, but THEN it's simply not going to happen.
It even might turn out (if people would walk away from Bitcoin) that Bitcoin turns out to be a worse means to store value. I would not expect that to happen, but it CAN happen: you peoples' support. Yours, mine, everyone else's.

Fact of life, sorry if this should wake you up in a rude fashion 

[puffpuffpass]

Bitcoin's actual utility compared to Gold or the dollar is worlds apart, we know this already. And so, the only actual advantage that gold/dollar have is that of it's perception by the majority. We know that Bitcoin is a better a store of value, and better to transmit value with.

Well, let's be honest amoung us, BTC-proponents (yes, I am a proponent):

1. The actual utility of bitcoin may in some cases be a bit better than that of gold, but it is certainly not when compared to the dollar. Or any other fiat currency. Bitcoin is far from that level of utility. If you don't see that, you need to have a better look.
2. Perception of the majority (and trust in any asset) is always the issue. Be it gold. Be it USD. Be it real estate. Be it Bitcoin - TOO !
3. Therefore, Bitcoin will only be able to serve as a "better store of value" and means (utility) if it is supported by the general public.

If people don't support or value an idea/phenomenon, both of us may WISH for Bitcoin to be better than anything else, but THEN it's simply not going to happen.
It even might turn out (if people would walk away from Bitcoin) that Bitcoin turns out to be a worse means to store value. I would not expect that to happen, but it CAN happen: you peoples' support. Yours, mine, everyone else's.

Fact of life, sorry if this should wake you up in a rude fashion  

the funny thing about bitcoin is the price doesn't matter as much as the utility. of course, giving something value in itself is a stupid thing to do but humans love stupidity so that is here to stay and frankly the only thing holding Bitcoin down is the fear that tyrants will fuck it up and they will and there's nothing you can do about it because freedom always has been and always will be one huge lie.

[mobodick]

What is the long term value of Bitcoin ? in 10 years
http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/02/calculating-the-long-term-value-of-a-bitcoin/

Store of Value. The world’s gold reserve is valued at $7.65 trillion.
Global Currency. World’s $3 trillion of currency value (inclusive Black Market).

How much percent could take Bitcoin from each ?
and is there a middle way ?

According to the writer of this piece the actual chance of bitcoin succeeding has an effect on the future price.

Bitcoin will either succeed or not (by definition of the word success). It has an absolute effect on the whole of bitcoin, not a relative effect on the exchange price.
Moreover, the period over which this calculation is made is 10 years. Conveniently, the calculation does not take into account how much value a dollar will represent in 10 years time.

I think the writer of the piece has a hole in his skull through which gnomes sucked out most of his brain...

[Carlton Banks]

Bitcoin's actual utility compared to Gold or the dollar is worlds apart, we know this already. And so, the only actual advantage that gold/dollar have is that of it's perception by the majority. We know that Bitcoin is a better a store of value, and better to transmit value with.

1. The actual utility of bitcoin may in some cases be a bit better than that of gold, but it is certainly not when compared to the dollar. Or any other fiat currency. Bitcoin is far from that level of utility. If you don't see that, you need to have a better look.

You're confusing utility with acceptance.

[lucas.sev]

It's funny how all these threads are fantasies about getting RID of bitcoin and converting to lots of fiat.

[smoothie]

No one can know the price. But I say fundamentally Bitcoin is infinitely more valuable than any fiat system to date.

If bitcoin gets replaced by another better system then thats cool too. But BTC > fiat always.

[notme]

It's funny how all these threads are fantasies about getting RID of bitcoin and converting to lots of fiat.

It's funny how I don't see that sentiment from any of the posts in this thread.  All I see are estimates of the equivalent fiat value.  Just because we use fiat as a yardstick doesn't mean we're going to dump bitcoin.