Can someone please confirm whether this math is right? New algo looks promising, but trying to work out some of the economics of this to see if its worth the time/hash:
Blocktime looks like it's 2 mins, right? So 720 blocks a day, with 10 Lux/Block. This is 7200 LUX/day, or 7200*365 = 2,628,000 LUX/year.
The dev pre-mine is 5% of 60 million blocks, = 3,000,000 pre-mine. The PoS reward is 50%, with double-rewards for the first 100k blocks. Let's ignore the double rewards. So dev will earn 1.5 million Lux in one year.
Let's assume all miners can stake perfectly. This is far from true, but lets say that every time a block is found by a miner, it begins to stake. This means that over the course of the year, on average half the mined supply will be staked at 50%, so the staking result is 2,628,000 * 0.25 = 657,000. The maximum total earned by a perfect mining/staking system is 2,628,000 mining + 657,000 staking = 3,285,000 LUX.
Holdings after year 1: Dev 4,500,000 LUX, miners 3,285,000 LUX.
Should I be worried about dev holding well over 50% of the supply even after one year? Genuine question, maybe I shouldn't care because new algos are so money they can overcome this.
Should be careful... let's see what devs would say.
Yeah I don't wanna jump to conclusions because my math might be wrong. The thing people don't appreciate though is that
a pre-mine is very different in a PoS/MN coin than in a regular mining-only coin. The max supply is 60 million LUX. The dev is going to earn 1,500,000 from staking in year one, and 50% of 4.5 million = another 2,250,000 from staking in year two. Then it earns another 3 million + in year 3. This is what a 50% growth curve looks like:
Year 0: 3 million
Year 1: 4.5 million
Year 2: 6.75 million
Year 3: 10.125 million
So if we assume the coin has a lifespan of at least 3 years, a 5% start will end up being worth more than 16% of the total 60 million supply by the end of it. And probably will grow a lot more before total supply becomes 60 million because the coin's life span will be 5-6 years probably.
Now I know dev will sell some of that. But if he sells enough to affect the math, the coin would die from that kind of dump alone. So really, the dev needs to hold it, but then as he holds it, it grows to a huge share of the coin. So I'd like to hear dev's thoughts on that.