Difficulty jumps 28%

[FloridaBear]

Difficulty jumped to 15.6 million from 12.1 million, a 28% increase. Welcome to ASIC world...be very careful with your hardware investments!

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[joulesbeef]

lol I remember when diff first hit a million.

now it jumps by millions.

that was an amazing bump though.

[xh4]

The next one will be even more amazing.

[SGExodus]

The best part is that, most consumers still don't have their hand on ASIC.

ASICMiner and other private equity folks are happily printing money, while the rest of the forumers continue to get screw by pre-order delays

[Shevek]

It borned underestimated :-(

[skumpic]

OMG

[gomados]

yep the gpu's time are ending!!!!!

[SGExodus]

At this difficulty growth, all those guys paying over 4BTC/Ghs in the Auction section will never make back their investment.

First owner of Avalon and BFL equipment can still make some decent profit -- if their machine ships.

[Crindon]

Ouch!

15605632.6813

[Crindon]

At this difficulty growth, all those guys paying over 4BTC/Ghs in the Auction section will never make back their investment.

First owner of Avalon and BFL equipment can still make some decent profit -- if their machine ships.

Sad, but true.

[Crindon]

Anyone want to hazard a guess at what the difficulty will be in November 2013 or December 2013?

60 million?

[Nancarrow]

My GPUs are still profitable, and they'll probably last through the next two difficulty changes (so maybe six weeks all told) but unless price skyrockets comparably, they're on their last legs.

Actually what's annoying is, I got an ASICminer blade some 17 days ago, and only AFTER I got it, did I think of calculating ROI. 
Turns out that a sustained diff increase of ~14% will just breakeven BTC wise. Last but one difficulty change was 8.6%. Yay!  Now we just had 28.4%. Boo! 

[kendog77]

Difficulty jumped to 15.6 million from 12.1 million, a 28% increase. Welcome to ASIC world...be very careful with your hardware investments!

I agree with you. Sadly, some poor soul just "won" an auction and paid 281BTC for an Avalon that is very unlikely to ever earn that much from this point forward...  

The latest difficulty jump also makes ASICMiner Blades a very poor buy at 50BTC.

Jalapeno's are even going for ~20BTC.

In my opinion, there are no ASIC devices that can be ordered now and ship immediately that will ever earn what they cost in BTC from this point forward.

[Crindon]

Difficulty jumped to 15.6 million from 12.1 million, a 28% increase. Welcome to ASIC world...be very careful with your hardware investments!

I agree with you. Sadly, some poor soul just "won" an auction and paid 281BTC for an Avalon that is very unlikely to ever earn that much from this point forward...  

The latest difficulty jump also makes ASICMiner Blades a very poor buy at 50BTC.

Jalapeno's are even going for ~20BTC.

In my opinion, there are no ASIC devices that can be ordered now and ship immediately that will ever earn what they cost in BTC from this point forward.

That's right, the price per GH/s for ASICs that you can get right now are just too high and it will take a year or more at current and slightly higher difficulties to recoup that initial investment. The difficulty is due to skyrocket within 6 months.

[hayek]

The best part is that, most consumers still don't have their hand on ASIC.

ASICMiner and other private equity folks are happily printing money, while the rest of the forumers continue to get screw by pre-order delays

Well, even if the ASICs had come earlier would have just meant a bump in difficulty sooner. I only get discouraged by the lack of time spent mining rather than the potential profit.

[bonker]

Ouch! I need Savlon for my bunghole

[J35st3r]

And I only just got wrung out for using 26% in an example ROI calculation back in the noobs section https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=225285.0;all. Perhaps I should ask for my "Victory" back?

Interesting times. I think the economists use the term "Irrational exuberance". All bubbles burst (not quite the right analogy as difficulty won't drop precipitously, maybe more of a Gold Rush to ASIC canyon). I guess most ASIC pre-orders are going to get a little burned (certainly disappointed). The early chip orders may turn out OK though. Shame I didn't get in early. Hindsight would be a fine thing.

[FloridaBear]

And I only just got wrung out for using 26% in an example ROI calculation back in the noobs section https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=225285.0;all. Perhaps I should ask for my "Victory" back?

Interesting times. I think the economists use the term "Irrational exuberance". All bubbles burst (not quite the right analogy as difficulty won't drop precipitously, maybe more of a Gold Rush to ASIC canyon). I guess most ASIC pre-orders are going to get a little burned (certainly disappointed). The early chip orders may turn out OK though. Shame I didn't get in early. Hindsight would be a fine thing.

Yup, I got reamed for my "GPU's will not pay back" thread when assuming around 18% increases (which has been about average for a few months, and ASICs have only started trickling out). It's very difficult to find ANY investment right now that is a sure thing.

[BitcoinBarrel]

See what all you Preorders have done!

[Spectrome]

GPU's wont become useless they will just farm alt coins and exchange for BTC, The BTC market is about to take a whole bunch of steroids. Pulling up a recliner for this firework show over the coming months.

[Sitarow]

Anyone want to hazard a guess at what the difficulty will be in November 2013 or December 2013?

60 million?

Feb 2nd 2013 75m - 110m

[Jaden]

And I only just got wrung out for using 26% in an example ROI calculation back in the noobs section https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=225285.0;all. Perhaps I should ask for my "Victory" back?

Interesting times. I think the economists use the term "Irrational exuberance". All bubbles burst (not quite the right analogy as difficulty won't drop precipitously, maybe more of a Gold Rush to ASIC canyon). I guess most ASIC pre-orders are going to get a little burned (certainly disappointed). The early chip orders may turn out OK though. Shame I didn't get in early. Hindsight would be a fine thing.

Yup, I got reamed for my "GPU's will not pay back" thread when assuming around 18% increases (which has been about average for a few months, and ASICs have only started trickling out). It's very difficult to find ANY investment right now that is a sure thing.

Maybe buying Bitcoins with fiat? I just started mining last month with some GPUs I bought off of Craigslist, so I'm way late to the party, but I got them cheap enough that I should be able to at least break even, but that's about it.

[BittBurger]

In my opinion, there are no ASIC devices that can be ordered now and ship immediately that will ever earn what they cost in BTC from this point forward.

That's right, the price per GH/s for ASICs that you can get right now are just too high and it will take a year or more at current and slightly higher difficulties to recoup that initial investment.

I was told that the 50Gh/s machines currently will produce about 2 BTC per day.

At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.

If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?

Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.

-Burger-

[notlist3d]

At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.

If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?

Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.

-Burger-

Keyword is BFL... if they delivered on what they said everyone on this forum would have multiple asic's but read other threads on BFL and see their issues.

[SGExodus]

I was told that the 50Gh/s machines currently will produce about 2 BTC per day.

At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.

If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?

Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.

-Burger-

Machine that you can't buy now, i.e.  you have to pre-order with blind faith,  can potentially make profit.  But you have no certainty on when they will ship.     BFL only shipped some small quanity of 5G/hs machine to customers that pre-ordered 1 years ago, and Avalon have missed their Batch 2 pre-order by close to 2 months now.    

A 50G/hs machine may have a potential life time earning of 280 BTC, but each week delay is going to cost your 25+ BTC lost in revenue if the current difficulty growth trend continue.    If you receive the machine only in the 10th week,  you would not make any profit from the mining, and would be better off spending the money to buy bitcoin directly now.

On the other hand, Machines that you can buy now, such as ASICMIner's USB stick or Blade, are so overpriced that you will never make back your investment.

[btcfarseer.com]

Hi guys, we are a bunch of guts who also keep watching difficulty change, so we build a lottery game for guessing difficulty. It just released, you can check out this website to see how other people bet the future difficulty for your reference or you can play with it! It's fun!
Website: http://btcfarseer.com
Forum Post: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=223850.msg2386345#msg2386345

[batman, not crabman]

So what happened this last 2 weeks then?

Did BFL start delivering more than a couple of units?
Did ASICMiner crank up some more blades?
Are Avalon mining with my unit

[bcpokey]

No one ever knows. ASICMiner is at about 30TH/sec now, some batch 2 Avalons are arriving, buncha chumps bought up ASICMiner blades, some unknown quantity of people have been getting jalapenos, and probably someone is sitting around mining with peoples preorder ASICs (maybe, dunno).

Only thing we can say is, It's going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better for almost anybody.

[Amph]

I was told that the 50Gh/s machines currently will produce about 2 BTC per day.

At $120 per BTC, that is $240 per day.

If a 50 from BFL costs $2499, "ships today" (comment above), why would you never make your money back? You would have your money back in just 10 days. Wrong?

Maybe an ASIC isn't the same as the BFL 50Gh/s device and I'm getting confused.

-Burger-

Machine that you can't buy now, i.e.  you have to pre-order with blind faith,  can potentially make profit.  But you have no certainty on when they will ship.     BFL only shipped some small quanity of 5G/hs machine to customers that pre-ordered 1 years ago, and Avalon have missed their Batch 2 pre-order by close to 2 months now.    

A 50G/hs machine may have a potential life time earning of 280 BTC, but each week delay is going to cost your 25+ BTC lost in revenue if the current difficulty growth trend continue.    If you receive the machine only in the 10th week,  you would not make any profit from the mining, and would be better off spending the money to buy bitcoin directly now.

On the other hand, Machines that you can buy now, such as ASICMIner's USB stick or Blade, are so overpriced that you will never make back your investment.

this is why pre-order asic is garbage, difficult will skyrocket before you get them, and you will end up paying more, of what they are worth

[Eastwind]

GPU's wont become useless they will just farm alt coins and exchange for BTC, The BTC market is about to take a whole bunch of steroids. Pulling up a recliner for this firework show over the coming months.

I have GPU only. At present, I move most of GPU to LTC. The only one I have not moved is the broken one, which can only mine BTC but would die mining LTC.

[Welsh]

Yep, now looking into it, ASIC aren't going to be very profitable, only the people selling them are going to really profit.
That's a huge increase.

[OnkelPaul]

This is the "selling shovels in a gold rush" thing on steroids.
If you can sell ASICs for more than they ever produce during their lifetime, you make a better profit than if you let them mine for yourself.
Of course, letting them mine for a time while the difficulty is still low enough and only selling them later is a guarantee for even better profit.

And I am absolutely convinced that the ASIC sellers can calculate and know at what price they must sell to make a profit.
The shovel makers in the gold rush could at least plausibly claim that dealing with them would create a win-win situation, as they themselves could not deliver the amount of work needed to mine with their tools.
But in the ASIC mining case there is no win-win - if it is more profitable for the seller to sell the hardware than to mine with it, it is with certainty not profitable for the buyer to mine with it.

Onkel Paul

[J35st3r]

if it is more profitable for the seller to sell the hardware than to mine with it, it is with certainty not profitable for the buyer to mine with it.

Onkel Paul

You're forgetting cash flow. The ASIC-CO's need to pay for chips, boards, production etc. So they sell in order to fund even more production. Or pre-order sales anyway. And if they're being devious they mine on the built pre-order kit until they are forced to deliver a few to keep the punters from getting too ansty.

[/TINFOILHAT=OFF]  But I'm sure thats not the case with our current set of manufacturers. Pretty sure anyway ...

[kendog77]

The ASIC price gouging continues.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=226676.0

Do your homework folks!

[p00chie]

i would say next diff increase is >50%
without asics bitcoins will be impossible to mine. wll who guessed that. lol.

litecoin diff will increase heavy too because there is no other place for gpus except ebay.

[donjonson]

The good thing about gpu is that you can resell it or get your 10 gpus and make a big counter strike with friends and son haha. With asics you can...

[azw409]

Well that's me hanging up my mining gear - luckily I just broke even on my ATI card in 2 months so now it'll go back on ebay.

So I converted some electricity into bitcoins for free - try that with your ASIC's you suckers.

[paszczakojad]

The best part is that, most consumers still don't have their hand on ASIC.

And won't have. Why should companies that invested millions in ASIC design sell their money-printing-machines instead of just using them to print money?

P.

[kendog77]

This is the "selling shovels in a gold rush" thing on steroids.
If you can sell ASICs for more than they ever produce during their lifetime, you make a better profit than if you let them mine for yourself.
Of course, letting them mine for a time while the difficulty is still low enough and only selling them later is a guarantee for even better profit.

And I am absolutely convinced that the ASIC sellers can calculate and know at what price they must sell to make a profit.
The shovel makers in the gold rush could at least plausibly claim that dealing with them would create a win-win situation, as they themselves could not deliver the amount of work needed to mine with their tools.
But in the ASIC mining case there is no win-win - if it is more profitable for the seller to sell the hardware than to mine with it, it is with certainty not profitable for the buyer to mine with it.

Onkel Paul

I absolutely agree with this. The lucky few who actually do have an ASIC now mine with it for a while, and then sell it for a tremendous profit (more than the machine will likely ever be able to mine) to maximize their profit.

If the masses can't get an ASICs device for close to the manufacturers cost plus a little profit instead of how much the machine can earn in Bitcoin, ASIC mining is losing game. I heard that ASICMiner pays ~$150 to manufacture a Blade, and sells them for over $6000!!! 

[FloridaBear]

This is the "selling shovels in a gold rush" thing on steroids.
If you can sell ASICs for more than they ever produce during their lifetime, you make a better profit than if you let them mine for yourself.
Of course, letting them mine for a time while the difficulty is still low enough and only selling them later is a guarantee for even better profit.

And I am absolutely convinced that the ASIC sellers can calculate and know at what price they must sell to make a profit.
The shovel makers in the gold rush could at least plausibly claim that dealing with them would create a win-win situation, as they themselves could not deliver the amount of work needed to mine with their tools.
But in the ASIC mining case there is no win-win - if it is more profitable for the seller to sell the hardware than to mine with it, it is with certainty not profitable for the buyer to mine with it.

Onkel Paul

I absolutely agree with this. The lucky few who actually do have an ASIC now mine with it for a while, and then sell it for a tremendous profit (more than the machine will likely ever be able to mine) to maximize their profit.

If the masses can't get an ASICs device for close to the manufacturers cost plus a little profit instead of how much the machine can earn in Bitcoin, ASIC mining is losing game. I heard that ASICMiner pays ~$150 to manufacture a Blade, and sells them for over $6000!!! 

Yes. I hope people do their homework and understand exponential growth, because that's what we're going to see for awhile. Starting today, a 1 GH ASIC miner will likely only produce about 3 BTC over its useful life. There's significant risk it will produce less. It boggles the mind how 13 GH blades are selling for 40+BTC and 65 GH miners are selling for 200BTC--there is very real risk that you won't break even, much less make significant profit.

[Slipage]

Bfl will be refusing all refunds soon as people finally wake up and realise it won't make money when they get it, and no resell value. Buy sell btc is all the average person will be able to do apart from alt coins

When the hype has arrived it's normally to late , only early adopters are winning and the ones selling into the hype.

So many people are going to get burnt with pre orders

[azw409]

I think the only way that Bitcoin will survive and remain democratic is to optionally allow miners to use scrypt as well as SHA256 with appropriate difficulty. Otherwise all mining will be done on ASICs by a handful of people and companies.

Offering the choice means that you can use either GPU's (with scrypt) which are commonly available or ASIC's (with SHA256) which are still limited to an elite few. This way the most people still have stake and the ASIC arms race doesn't assure the destruction democracy.

[Slipage]

Wow we still talking about gpus considering asic's will be obsolete by 2014.

Keep up with the pace, the storm has started and its going to get hell of allot worst

[OnkelPaul]

Wow we still talking about gpus considering asic's will be obsolete by 2014.

Why do you think ASICs will be obsolete in 2014?
Currently I don't see a technology that could replace them (of course newer ASICs that are built with denser structures will provide some more bang for the buck).

The next technology that could in theory make ASICs obsolete are quantum computers. But I don't see them around the corner, at least not models that could hash Bitcoin blocks.

Of course there will be many people who bought ASICs and realize that they will never get enough ROI.

Onkel Paul

[MooC Tals]

At this difficulty growth, all those guys paying over 4BTC/Ghs in the Auction section will never make back their investment.

First owner of Avalon and BFL equipment can still make some decent profit -- if their machine ships.

I guess BFL is trying to ship jala's out now because soon no one will buy them.

Look at the projected difficulty and put it in a calculator and it just dropped from 17 dollars a day to 14.
 
Bitcoin does not look like its gonna stop climbing for a while. Here look

[Xian01]

Wow we still talking about gpus considering asic's will be obsolete by 2014.

 LOLWUT ?! Please explain your reasoning for this statement.

[Slipage]

My bad meant current generation ASIC's

[daemondazz]

My bad meant current generation ASIC's

Current generation ASICs are like a 8086 (or lower), still LOTS of growth room in them!

[bitmateco]

so some 'elite' ppl who have accses to avalon are printing money and shitting on thousands of gpu miner while we see our gpus go worthless and its even worthless to buy asics couse its too expensive and most of the time you wont even get it shipped anytime soon.

sounds fishy indeed

illuminati took over btc!

[bitmateco]

also its winter here and my gpus are heating my room as they mine so i dont have to use my electric heater!

take that illuminati lol XDD

[rograz]

Current generation ASICs are like a 8086 (or lower), still LOTS of growth room in them!

hah, we are looking at a order of magnitude yes but don't compare early 80s tech with early 2000s tech (Avalon) and BFL on their 65nm is more 2005 era, BFL failed on power consumption but they are still a pointer to possible performance density for that node. You are looking at around 2x the density per full node shrink so you have 45 nm/32 nm left and then you are suddenly at 22 nm  and bleeding edge tech.

[azw409]

illuminati took over btc!

I think we all know who these people are: Templars or even worse those damn Atlanteans from the lost continent. There can be no doubt about this.

[grosskate]

I ve asked a refund of my BFL 5gh. By the time i ll get it the difficulty will be too high to make profit with it. Right now it would make sense. But in 6months ot more from now... absolutely not.

[FloridaBear]

Looks like we are on target for 19.2M difficulty in a couple days...that would be a 23% increase from the current 15.6M. I think these 20+% jumps are the new "normal" for the next few months. As ASIC shipping becomes more "linear," the percent increases may gradually drop after 6 months or so, but it's going to be brutal for awhile.

[Crindon]

I ve asked a refund of my BFL 5gh. By the time i ll get it the difficulty will be too high to make profit with it. Right now it would make sense. But in 6months ot more from now... absolutely not.

Me too. I got a refund for a little single. Difficulty will be 1 billion by the time I receive it.

[Crindon]

Looks like we are on target for 19.2M difficulty in a couple days...that would be a 23% increase from the current 15.6M. I think these 20+% jumps are the new "normal" for the next few months. As ASIC shipping becomes more "linear," the percent increases may gradually drop after 6 months or so, but it's going to be brutal for awhile.

The rate of increase should drop after December 2013.

[navigator]

You guys underestimate how long an ASIC can last after ROI. After I make back ROI in USD($1333), I will only be paying for electricity. Being conservative, say I get 60gh/s @ 300 watts. And I pay on average $0.07 cents per kw/h. The single will cost about $15/month in electricity. At $100/btc, difficulty could jump 300 times the next estimate(19mil) to around 5.7billion before I'm negative. That's a lot of petahashes.

[4mherewego]

You guys underestimate how long an ASIC can last after ROI. After I make back ROI in USD($1333), I will only be paying for electricity. Being conservative, say I get 60gh/s @ 300 watts. And I pay on average $0.07 cents per kw/h. The single will cost about $15/month in electricity. At $100/btc, difficulty could jump 300 times the next estimate(19mil) to around 5.7billion before I'm negative. That's a lot of petahashes.

You need to change your perspective from USD-centric to BTC-centric.
That way you'll realize, that while your machine paid in USD, it lost in BTC. [You could've profited more if you just bought the BTC for USD]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs

[batman, not crabman]

Personally, I paid for my asic in $ (which I converted to BTC) so I don't care if I earn the BTC back or not, only the $.
If I had paid in BTC (say I earned through mining) then it would be a different story.

[FloridaBear]

Personally, I paid for my asic in $ (which I converted to BTC) so I don't care if I earn the BTC back or not, only the $.
If I had paid in BTC (say I earned through mining) then it would be a different story.

I see this a lot, and I think it's kind of a fallacy: You made the decision to buy when BTC was a certain price, and the math told you that you would make back more BTC than you invested. Effectively, you gave up that amount of $ that you could have invested in BTC alone. If you don't earn back the BTC from the miner that you paid on it, it is a worse investment than just buying the BTC in the first place.

[hl5460]

Avalon has sold more than 250T of chips. We are expecting 500T+ at the end of this year.

[zvs]

Personally, I paid for my asic in $ (which I converted to BTC) so I don't care if I earn the BTC back or not, only the $.
If I had paid in BTC (say I earned through mining) then it would be a different story.

I see this a lot, and I think it's kind of a fallacy: You made the decision to buy when BTC was a certain price, and the math told you that you would make back more BTC than you invested. Effectively, you gave up that amount of $ that you could have invested in BTC alone. If you don't earn back the BTC from the miner that you paid on it, it is a worse investment than just buying the BTC in the first place.

tell 'em like it is, brother

[batman, not crabman]

Personally, I paid for my asic in $ (which I converted to BTC) so I don't care if I earn the BTC back or not, only the $.
If I had paid in BTC (say I earned through mining) then it would be a different story.

I see this a lot, and I think it's kind of a fallacy: You made the decision to buy when BTC was a certain price, and the math told you that you would make back more BTC than you invested. Effectively, you gave up that amount of $ that you could have invested in BTC alone. If you don't earn back the BTC from the miner that you paid on it, it is a worse investment than just buying the BTC in the first place.

Yeah that's actually a good point now I think about it, maybe I'd have been better off just holding the coins :/

[vapourminer]

Personally, I paid for my asic in $ (which I converted to BTC) so I don't care if I earn the BTC back or not, only the $.
If I had paid in BTC (say I earned through mining) then it would be a different story.

I see this a lot, and I think it's kind of a fallacy: You made the decision to buy when BTC was a certain price, and the math told you that you would make back more BTC than you invested. Effectively, you gave up that amount of $ that you could have invested in BTC alone. If you don't earn back the BTC from the miner that you paid on it, it is a worse investment than just buying the BTC in the first place.

This "if you had kept the BTC..." thing.

I like mining, and have always sold half (or, preferably, directly buy stuff with them) and kept half.

the point of bitcoins is to USE them.

[dan99]

mostly newbie talk, but interesting none the less

[bitmateco]

so when is next diff jump??

[MooC Tals]

so when is next diff jump??

19339258.00    19877609.94    2.78%    13d 13hr 36m 10s

http://allchains.info/

[PuertoLibre]

so when is next diff jump??

19339258.00    19877609.94    2.78%    13d 13hr 36m 10s

http://allchains.info/

Four hours have passed and it is now reading as: 11d 7hr 37m 3s

No doubt it will shrink even further to less than 7 days.

[Syke]

This "if you had kept the BTC..." thing.

I like mining, and have always sold half (or, preferably, directly buy stuff with them) and kept half.

the point of bitcoins is to USE them.

Do you like less bitcoins or more bitcoins? Buying a miner that generates less bitcoins than it cost to purchase it just leaves you with less bitcoins to use.

[vapourminer]

This "if you had kept the BTC..." thing.

I like mining, and have always sold half (or, preferably, directly buy stuff with them) and kept half.

the point of bitcoins is to USE them.

Do you like less bitcoins or more bitcoins? Buying a miner that generates less bitcoins than it cost to purchase it just leaves you with less bitcoins to use.

my point was, I get rid of half anyway. that has been my MO from the beginning.

Im in this for fun, supporting network security, buying stuff with bitcoins (directly if possible) and playing with new hardware/tech. and be part of the Grand Experiment.

sure, making money is nice; Im way ahead of the game at this point.

[Crindon]

my point was, I get rid of half anyway. that has been my MO from the beginning.

Im in this for fun, supporting network security, buying stuff with bitcoins (directly if possible) and playing with new hardware/tech. and be part of the Grand Experiment.

sure, making money is nice; Im way ahead of the game at this point.

This part is really important to some. I love how my GPUs look and piecing together a new system was fun. I saw the Jalapenos and they looked fantastic, but too bad they are vaporware at this point. The original version that looked like a coaster was really neat.

[hl5460]

I actually order a 16-chip avalon (4.5g)at the price of around 400 USD or 4 btc at current rate. I am expecting to mine 4 btc within a year. If btc rate goes up, that would be very helpful to get me refunded earlier than expected.

[MooC Tals]

so when is next diff jump??

19339258.00    19877609.94    2.78%    13d 13hr 36m 10s

http://allchains.info/

Four hours have passed and it is now reading as: 11d 7hr 37m 3s

No doubt it will shrink even further to less than 7 days.

2.78%    19339258.00    22356754.47    15.60%    11d 18hr 34m 35s

Just an update:

WTH? Yea why is that? Does the estimated date change as well? Thats weird.. I did not know that changes also.

[Amph]

This "if you had kept the BTC..." thing.

I like mining, and have always sold half (or, preferably, directly buy stuff with them) and kept half.

the point of bitcoins is to USE them.

Do you like less bitcoins or more bitcoins? Buying a miner that generates less bitcoins than it cost to purchase it just leaves you with less bitcoins to use.

if you buy a game you have less money, but you gain the entertainment
for some people mining is very funny

[Eastwind]

so when is next diff jump??

19339258.00    19877609.94    2.78%    13d 13hr 36m 10s

http://allchains.info/

Four hours have passed and it is now reading as: 11d 7hr 37m 3s

No doubt it will shrink even further to less than 7 days.

2.78%    19339258.00    22356754.47    15.60%    11d 18hr 34m 35s

Just an update:

WTH? Yea why is that? Does the estimated date change as well? Thats weird.. I did not know that changes also.

If you go to http://allchains.info/, you will see the latest estimated difficulty in the next round.

[andrewsg]

No doubt it will shrink even further to less than 7 days.

2.78%    19339258.00    22356754.47    15.60%    11d 18hr 34m 35s

Just an update:

WTH? Yea why is that? Does the estimated date change as well? Thats weird.. I did not know that changes also.

Because the diff doesn't change after a set time, it changes after a set number of blocks. Also, estimates just after a retarget, such as the ones we are looking at right now - are very unreliable.

[muyuu]

Bye bye botnets. Time to move to alt-cons where you belong.

[caish5]

The latest difficulty predictions are looking like it's going to level off.
Which suits me just fine

[FloridaBear]

The latest difficulty predictions are looking like it's going to level off.
Which suits me just fine

Well, I think it's awfully early to project that. All we know for sure is that we increased 28% and then 24%. I would be pretty surprised to see an increase under 10%, though it's possible. We've averaged ~18% for a few months, so a reversion to the mean wouldn't be too surprising. That said, it sure seems like Avalon batch 2/3 will be shipping for awhile, and BFL keeps ramping up shipping. No sign that ASICMINER is slowing their deployment either. The ASIC wave is still building!

[caish5]

You are right of course.
But i think the truly massive rises may be behind us.

[Shevek]

The latest difficulty predictions are looking like it's going to level off.
Which suits me just fine

Well, I think it's awfully early to project that. All we know for sure is that we increased 28% and then 24%. I would be pretty surprised to see an increase under 10%, though it's possible. We've averaged ~18% for a few months, so a reversion to the mean wouldn't be too surprising. That said, it sure seems like Avalon batch 2/3 will be shipping for awhile, and BFL keeps ramping up shipping. No sign that ASICMINER is slowing their deployment either. The ASIC wave is still building!

There should be a small slow down trend when GPUs disconnect. Mine are switched off since 2~3 weeks. Perhaps actually around 50 TH/s are due to GPUs still working.

[larem]

The latest difficulty predictions are looking like it's going to level off.
Which suits me just fine

Well, I think it's awfully early to project that. All we know for sure is that we increased 28% and then 24%. I would be pretty surprised to see an increase under 10%, though it's possible. We've averaged ~18% for a few months, so a reversion to the mean wouldn't be too surprising. That said, it sure seems like Avalon batch 2/3 will be shipping for awhile, and BFL keeps ramping up shipping. No sign that ASICMINER is slowing their deployment either. The ASIC wave is still building!

As of right now we're 6% through with this round and the difficulty is set to rise less than half a percent. Hopefully it stays like that for a while, :p.

[josh_nc]

Got a question. I have 2 blades @ 12.5GH/s each. I set 1 miner for both with difficulty 16. Is it the better choice or should I split into 2 miners @ diff 8?
Anyone attempted this?

[Syke]

You are right of course.
But i think the truly massive rises may be behind us.

Oh, the massive rise is just getting started.

[larem]

Got a question. I have 2 blades @ 12.5GH/s each. I set 1 miner for both with difficulty 16. Is it the better choice or should I split into 2 miners @ diff 8?
Anyone attempted this?

Both should be the same. The only time you need to change diff is when you are getting a lot of stales, as all it does is bundle more shares into one (layman's term). Ex. at diff 8 you will take 8x longer to submit a share than at diff 1, but you will still get credit for all 8.

[FloridaBear]

The latest difficulty predictions are looking like it's going to level off.
Which suits me just fine

Well, I think it's awfully early to project that. All we know for sure is that we increased 28% and then 24%. I would be pretty surprised to see an increase under 10%, though it's possible. We've averaged ~18% for a few months, so a reversion to the mean wouldn't be too surprising. That said, it sure seems like Avalon batch 2/3 will be shipping for awhile, and BFL keeps ramping up shipping. No sign that ASICMINER is slowing their deployment either. The ASIC wave is still building!

There should be a small slow down trend when GPUs disconnect. Mine are switched off since 2~3 weeks. Perhaps actually around 50 TH/s are due to GPUs still working.

Yes, that is probably true. But this is a gradual process, if people have good information and know how efficient their GPUs are. ASICs coming online will likely replace that 50 TH/s rate fairly quickly.

[Amph]

and 33% decrease in difficulty needs time, to do a re target, in that time those 50tera will be replaced by asic, easily

[larem]

and 33% decrease in difficulty needs time, to do a re target, in that time those 50tera will be replaced by asic, easily

That's what I'm thinking. Even if the difficulty DID drop, it would rise back up again pretty quick. Many people are just now (or soon) hitting the point where it's no longer profitable. So if difficulty drops down, those will hop right back on the train and push it back up again.

[zvs]

and 33% decrease in difficulty needs time, to do a re target, in that time those 50tera will be replaced by asic, easily

That's what I'm thinking. Even if the difficulty DID drop, it would rise back up again pretty quick. Many people are just now (or soon) hitting the point where it's no longer profitable. So if difficulty drops down, those will hop right back on the train and push it back up again.

yeah, it'll flatten out for the first day or so as people with gpus switch them off.  then it'll jump back up again, as all these blade thingamajigs and whatever else comes online that people are throwing their money at

this obv doesnt include the avalon asic round 2 ppl, that got it for, what, $1000?  i overslept that day, damnit

[larem]

and 33% decrease in difficulty needs time, to do a re target, in that time those 50tera will be replaced by asic, easily

That's what I'm thinking. Even if the difficulty DID drop, it would rise back up again pretty quick. Many people are just now (or soon) hitting the point where it's no longer profitable. So if difficulty drops down, those will hop right back on the train and push it back up again.

yeah, it'll flatten out for the first day or so as people with gpus switch them off.  then it'll jump back up again, as all these blade thingamajigs and whatever else comes online that people are throwing their money at

this obv doesnt include the avalon asic round 2 ppl, that got it for, what, $1000?  i overslept that day, damnit

I've been pretty scared to jump on asics in general, just because look at how it's been... you buy and wait 1+ years to get your purchase? Even with them shipping now, I can still see there being a 1+ year wait for those who order now.

[Pinwheel]

You are right of course.
But i think the truly massive rises may be behind us.

Oh, the massive rise is just getting started.

that is closer to reality. 400 ths Bitfury, batch 3 avalon, 600 ths avalon chips sold.  10pts by end of the year. Before that still can be OK for avalons and asicminer, but question is who will pass 10pts, BitFury will pass, BFL perhaps too. By that time we may get new ASICminer chips which will be on same level with BitFury or even better. In any situation there will be some solution, nobody going to stop mining. Brutal yeah, but doible.

[naRky]

Dont bother with difficulty guys.

Its very simple.

3600BTC/day global

so for example now i have 1GHs unit and global hash rate is 100THs

100……..3600
0.001…….x

x=0.001*3600/100

x=0.036BTC/day

So if the hash rate will be 1000THs in september and i will receive Jupiter from KnC on time it will be like this:

1000…….3600
0.350…….x

x=1.26BTC/day


Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.

The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

[Soros Shorts]

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Huh? The relationship between the two is very simple.

Global Hash Rate = 7,158,388 * Difficulty

[FloridaBear]

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

Huh? The relationship between the two is very simple.

Global Hash Rate = 7,158,388 * Difficulty

Exactly. There is no difference between predicting difficulty and predicting hash rate.

[lazydna]

this drop or leveling off of net hash is because ASICminer seems to be having some problems with their machines and have cut their output to 20Theta and still falling. I don't expect them to be turning off their machines unless something really fucked up happened to them.

http://www.asicminercharts.com/

[Professor James Moriarty]

 I am guessing this 19 million thingy will stop here for another while? How long until we see 20 million+? so whens the next jump I started out on this march madness and was 9 million or so , now 19 million I think I was a 'wee' bit late

[MooC Tals]

June 13 2013

June 20 2013

I am guessing here but most large pools will lose more GPU's in the coming weeks as their luck in finding blocks dwindle. Bitminter has been a steady 13 THs for a bit of time and from the two screen shots we can see the decline. June 13 there were 10 with over 100,000 Mhs and now only 2 remain.



Asic miners going Solo mining and trying their luck at being the sole winners of the reward. I think this will back fire for most and they will join pools again by the next difficulty. Very interesting watching this all happen.

[batman, not crabman]

Dont bother with difficulty guys.

Its very simple.

3600BTC/day global

so for example now i have 1GHs unit and global hash rate is 100THs

100……..3600
0.001…….x

x=0.001*3600/100

x=0.036BTC/day

So if the hash rate will be 1000THs in september and i will receive Jupiter from KnC on time it will be like this:

1000…….3600
0.350…….x

x=1.26BTC/day


Dont speculate about difficulty its not important, the number of units in network is not important.

The only important think is your H/s and global H/s nothing else !!!!!!

Its easier to predict the global hash rate than difficulty. Predicting difficulty is wasting of time.

This isn't technically true - if the network has rate doubles before the next difficulty readjustment block then you'll see ~7000 BTC/day.  As it stands difficulty seems to be lagging a fair bit behind so we're likely getting ~400 BTC/day on average.
Let me know if I'm wrong here.

[andrewsg]

This isn't technically true - if the network has rate doubles before the next difficulty readjustment block then you'll see ~7000 BTC/day.  As it stands difficulty seems to be lagging a fair bit behind so we're likely getting ~400 BTC/day on average.
Let me know if I'm wrong here.

You are right about the mechanic, if the hash rate goes up significantly after a retarget, then until the next retarget bitcoins will be generated at a rate faster than 3600/day. That was the case for the last 2 retargets, but at the moment that is not the case for the current period, over the past 24 hours blocks have been generated every 9min45sec on average, that's very close to the "intended" rate.

[Phoenix3333]

It would appear Avalon stopped new orders on units...maybe BFL should stop also?

With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

That point is fast approaching if not here now.

Because of climbing difficulty in 8 months a 50 Gh single will not even produce enough BTC to cover the cost of electric and therefore be near worthless with little to no resale value.

By massive production of hash rate introduced to the public it appears the hardware producers (all of the asics producers) have manufactured their own obsolescence.

Thoughts?

[SGExodus]

It would appear Avalon stopped new orders on units...maybe BFL should stop also?

With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

That point is fast approaching if not here now.

Because of climbing difficulty in 8 months a 50 Gh single will not even produce enough BTC to cover the cost of electric and therefore be near worthless with little to no resale value.

By massive production of hash rate introduced to the public it appears the hardware producers (all of the asics producers) have manufactured their own obsolescence.

Thoughts?

The mark up on the chips are very high, so they are already making handsome profits.     In addition, they sit on the orders, and mined with customer equipment to double/triple their profits.

In the future, they will just market the next generation ASIC with higher efficiency and slightly lower cost, and they will be able to start the pre-order + bulk buy scam all over again to reap even more money from the community. 

They are smart people.  Don't need to worry for them

[larem]

With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

The problem is most people don't know the first thing about economics. Look at it like this:

You have spent $1,000 for your ASIC. It is generating 1 BTC a month that right now is worth $10. In a year, you've earned $120. Now you are earning 0.5 BTC but the price of each BTC has gone up to $1,000. So now you are earning $500 a month. You've "recouped" your initial investment now in 14 months, right? Wrong!

Instead of spending $1,000 on that ASIC, you could have bought 100 BTC's at $10 each. Now, 14 months later, you have not broken even on your $1,000, but you instead have $100,000, 100 times your initial investment.

This is what people are failing to realize. They are considering how many BTC they get, vs. what they may be worth in the future, but the fact is that they would be earning a LOT more if they had spent their money to buy BTC outright and held it. Not to mention they would have their stuff right that second, instead of waiting it out.

People who paid, say 100 BTC back when they were $2 each for an ASIC are happy because they have made a few hundred in profit. If they had held those same 100 BTC, they would be worth $10,000+ now. In essence, they have lost money by getting ASICs.

[MooC Tals]

With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

The problem is most people don't know the first thing about economics. Look at it like this:

You have spent $1,000 for your ASIC. It is generating 1 BTC a month that right now is worth $10. In a year, you've earned $120. Now you are earning 0.5 BTC but the price of each BTC has gone up to $1,000. So now you are earning $500 a month. You've "recouped" your initial investment now in 14 months, right? Wrong!

Instead of spending $1,000 on that ASIC, you could have bought 100 BTC's at $10 each. Now, 14 months later, you have not broken even on your $1,000, but you instead have $100,000, 100 times your initial investment.

This is what people are failing to realize. They are considering how many BTC they get, vs. what they may be worth in the future, but the fact is that they would be earning a LOT more if they had spent their money to buy BTC outright and held it. Not to mention they would have their stuff right that second, instead of waiting it out.

People who paid, say 100 BTC back when they were $2 each for an ASIC are happy because they have made a few hundred in profit. If they had held those same 100 BTC, they would be worth $10,000+ now. In essence, they have lost money by getting ASICs.

This is only true in hind sight. Very easy to say now. Uncertainty and risk can move this the other way now. Although you are correct how many are applying this with alternates now. I believe all alternates are not being purchased with cash but most are with existing btc that have already gained in price.

[larem]

With the climbing difficulty there comes a point that the cost of a BLF unit will never be returned to a miner even at very high BTC rates.

The problem is most people don't know the first thing about economics. Look at it like this:

You have spent $1,000 for your ASIC. It is generating 1 BTC a month that right now is worth $10. In a year, you've earned $120. Now you are earning 0.5 BTC but the price of each BTC has gone up to $1,000. So now you are earning $500 a month. You've "recouped" your initial investment now in 14 months, right? Wrong!

Instead of spending $1,000 on that ASIC, you could have bought 100 BTC's at $10 each. Now, 14 months later, you have not broken even on your $1,000, but you instead have $100,000, 100 times your initial investment.

This is what people are failing to realize. They are considering how many BTC they get, vs. what they may be worth in the future, but the fact is that they would be earning a LOT more if they had spent their money to buy BTC outright and held it. Not to mention they would have their stuff right that second, instead of waiting it out.

People who paid, say 100 BTC back when they were $2 each for an ASIC are happy because they have made a few hundred in profit. If they had held those same 100 BTC, they would be worth $10,000+ now. In essence, they have lost money by getting ASICs.

This is only true in hind sight. Very easy to say now. Uncertainty and risk can move this the other way now. Although you are correct how many are applying this with alternates now. I believe all alternates are not being purchased with cash but most are with existing btc that have already gained in price.

I brought this up because of the number of people willing to throw, say 300 BTC in to a 72 GH/s ASIC and claiming it will get them a positive ROI. They are making that decision based on the assumption that BTC will be going up in value, but if that's true they will still have earned more by keeping the 300 BTC. The only way to get a true positive ROI out of the investment is not to receive the amount that was paid (in this case we'll say $30,000), but rather 300 BTC. It doesn't matter if BTC goes up to $50,000,000, if the ASIC does not earn the same amount of BTC that was put in to it, the investor has lost money.

[zvs]

 I am guessing this 19 million thingy will stop here for another while? How long until we see 20 million+? so whens the next jump I started out on this march madness and was 9 million or so , now 19 million I think I was a 'wee' bit late

here, what i posted on june 16th:

It'll go up 20%, 25% or more for the next few cycles.  Then eventually the hobbyists will stop spending all their excess cash and the difficulty level won't increase as much.

all the prices for ASICs and such I have seen lately are ludicrous

but I applaud the business savvy of those folks that have sold/are selling their avalon 2's atm

wtf thinking it would stay at 19m?

[ujka]

This isn't technically true - if the network has rate doubles before the next difficulty readjustment block then you'll see ~7000 BTC/day.  As it stands difficulty seems to be lagging a fair bit behind so we're likely getting ~400 BTC/day on average.
Let me know if I'm wrong here.

That's why I don't tend to calculate btc/day, but rather btc/retarget, and retarget is 2016 blocks. no matter how many days.
btc/retarget = myHashes * 600 (seconds) * 2016 (blocks) * 25 (reward)  / 2^32 / diff

Is this formula right?

[Shimple]

The best part is that, most consumers still don't have their hand on ASIC.

ASICMiner and other private equity folks are happily printing money, while the rest of the forumers continue to get screw by pre-order delays

Exactly lol. All the delay stories are the companies mining away themselves. Funny huh?

[Frizz23]

Exactly lol. All the delay stories are the companies mining away themselves. Funny huh?

Bitcoin should change the hashing algorithm (from SHA-256 to SHA-512 or Scrypt or ...) to show those fuckers this here:



Bitcoin was meant to be democratic and decentralized. What we see since about 1/2 year is quite the opposite development: Bitcoin becomes more and more Bankster-like.

[Operatr]

Exactly lol. All the delay stories are the companies mining away themselves. Funny huh?

Bitcoin should change the hashing algorithm (from SHA-256 to SHA-512 or Scrypt or ...) to show those fuckers this here:



Bitcoin was meant to be democratic and decentralized. What we see since about 1/2 year is quite the opposite development: Bitcoin becomes more and more Bankster-like.

Profitability is tanking because of the combined greed of miners and these companies, the problem will correct itself in time when the hashpower plateaus, because why would you buy a miner now that the ROI is nowhere near what it was. Sales of these things will flatline along with it.

Unless Bitcoin increases in value dramatically nothing good will come of all this. Gold Rush 2.0, get ready to see some digital ghost towns appear

[MooC Tals]

Exactly lol. All the delay stories are the companies mining away themselves. Funny huh?

Bitcoin should change the hashing algorithm (from SHA-256 to SHA-512 or Scrypt or ...) to show those fuckers this here:



Bitcoin was meant to be democratic and decentralized. What we see since about 1/2 year is quite the opposite development: Bitcoin becomes more and more Bankster-like.

Profitability is tanking because of the combined greed of miners and these companies, the problem will correct itself in time when the hashpower plateaus, because why would you buy a miner now that the ROI is nowhere near what it was. Sales of these things will flatline along with it.

Unless Bitcoin increases in value dramatically nothing good will come of all this. Gold Rush 2.0, get ready to see some digital ghost towns appear

Yea you got the greed part right! What they should have done was come out slowly with USB sticks first where you could run along side with GPU's with out the power consumption. To be honest I don't think it matters anymore or I just don't give a shit. Bitcoin is going down the wrong path and we will see by the end of the year what that means.

Either way very interesting drama and I wonder if the next jump will look like the one we just saw.

[DPoS]

just because the mining has turn into the sport of kings doesn't mean btc itself just dies..  that is pretty self serving to say that.  You must be the ones that mine alt coins and try to pump and dump all of them..

if you are sick of the mining game, then create services or retail that deals in btc and get your btc that way..  you don't have to just mine and dump

stop thinking you all are saints if you can't see past your own greed

[zvs]

i think bitcoin price will keep falling as long as ppl keep buying overpriced asics and then think they can "pay it off" by mining with it at 50 trillion difficulties

[glon]

i think bitcoin price will keep falling as long as ppl keep buying overpriced asics and then think they can "pay it off" by mining with it at 50 trillion difficulties

I'm thinking exactly the same thing. In fact the recent fall from ~130 to ~100USD pretty much corresponds to the onset of ASICs.

Mining/speculation is a HUGE part of the market.

[zvs]

i think bitcoin price will keep falling as long as ppl keep buying overpriced asics and then think they can "pay it off" by mining with it at 50 trillion difficulties

I'm thinking exactly the same thing. In fact the recent fall from ~130 to ~100USD pretty much corresponds to the onset of ASICs.

Mining/speculation is a HUGE part of the market.

I think that trend will continue, too  

well, I was wrong about difficulty, anyway... it's going to go up like 11%, not 20%.. so I guess I'll leave the GPUs I have left going as I sell them off, well.. I'm also basing it off a price of $95, which I think will drop more...  too many people still trying to "pay off" those overpriced ASICs from asicminer... but @ $95, it's about $40/mo for ghash, after elec

(if it had gone up like 25% or so, i think i'd just shut them off, possibility of equipment failure + my time spent == greater than what I get from it, etc)

[MooC Tals]

i think bitcoin price will keep falling as long as ppl keep buying overpriced asics and then think they can "pay it off" by mining with it at 50 trillion difficulties

I'm thinking exactly the same thing. In fact the recent fall from ~130 to ~100USD pretty much corresponds to the onset of ASICs.

Mining/speculation is a HUGE part of the market.

I was predicting this happening to my self a while ago. My thoughts were along the line of 'easy come easy go' and anyone who does not have sufficient amount of money will tend to hold it stronger.

So if we have Asic's coming in thinking this is easy money they will trade it much easier. If this begins to happen then BTC drops and scares the rest in selling before it drops further.

I also believe a great deal of ASIC purchaser are new to the game and will not hold. With the first dump being the cashing out to pay for the units before they become useless.

After the easy money is over with the plateauing of difficulty then prices will rise. Before this Litcoin will increase to 10 dollars and that will pull a great deal of attention from Bitcoin.

Nevertheless Bitcoin will drop, as for a guess I suspect 65-75-85 range. Who knows?

[ujka]

During that 28% jump, and the next (24%), network hashrate increased for about 60 Thash.
I'm trying to figure out who put that new hashing power online.
Acording to http://www.asicminercharts.com/, ASICMiner increase is about 20T in that period. In that time Avalon shipped a few batch 2 units, and BFL some (hundreds?) jalapenos. That would be 10 T tops, I think.
Where did the rest, 30 T of that new power come from?
And still hashing online.

[MooC Tals]

During that 28% jump, and the next (24%), network hashrate increased for about 60 Thash.
I'm trying to figure out who put that new hashing power online.
Acording to http://www.asicminercharts.com/, ASICMiner increase is about 20T in that period. In that time Avalon shipped a few batch 2 units, and BFL some (hundreds?) jalapenos. That would be 10 T tops, I think.
Where did the rest, 30 T of that new power come from?
And still hashing online.

Remember not all asic miners are going to pools. I really don't know if it's greed or maybe just being bashful of possessing a large hasher. So how do you gauge solo miners out there?

Anyone know?

[ujka]

During that 28% jump, and the next (24%), network hashrate increased for about 60 Thash.
I'm trying to figure out who put that new hashing power online.
Acording to http://www.asicminercharts.com/, ASICMiner increase is about 20T in that period. In that time Avalon shipped a few batch 2 units, and BFL some (hundreds?) jalapenos. That would be 10 T tops, I think.
Where did the rest, 30 T of that new power come from?
And still hashing online.

Remember not all asic miners are going to pools. I really don't know if it's greed or maybe just being bashful of possessing a large hasher. So how do you gauge solo miners out there?

Anyone know?

Wasn't talking about pools.
Total network hashrate increased for 60T, and there is only about 30T of that hash power that we can say we know the source (ASICMiner + Avalon batch 2 + BFL). And that other 30T?

About gauging solominers: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/top.php. No data for 7.94% network hashrate. Increased 2% last week.

[Eastwind]

About gauging solominers: http://blockorigin.pfoe.be/top.php. No data for 7.94% network hashrate. Increased 2% last week.

The unaccounted for mining power is worrying. That could be the potential source of attack. If the accounted for mining power is increasing faster, that is reasurring.

[MooC Tals]

Has anyone notice other than me that this is exponential?

What I mean here is that you need new hardware sooner and you get less time to make your money back. Also the new hardware needs to be 1000 times more powerful.

To make things worse less people get a chance at this every tech cycle. These trends are very disturbing.

Hey has anyone figured out where that 9% of unaccounted hashing power is coming from?

[ujka]

...
Hey has anyone figured out where that 9% of unaccounted hashing power is coming from?

No. And it's still increasing every week. 192 unaccounted blocks in last 2016.

[ujka]

Has anyone notice other than me that this is exponential?

What I mean here is that you need new hardware sooner and you get less time to make your money back. Also the new hardware needs to be 1000 times more powerful.

To make things worse less people get a chance at this every tech cycle. These trends are very disturbing.

Most disturbing trends, really.

[baritus]

BTC will go down until it is almost worthless.

Reasons:
1. ASIC owners have no reason to keep their BTC when everyone else who has an ASIC is selling to recoup cost.
2. Aforementioned worsens the effects of rising difficulty by correlating them to dropping price.
3. 1 & 2 basically guarantee the demise of BTC price until a laughable level, not sure what that level is.
4. End result is extreme deflation - you haven't seen anything yet.

Simply, there is now a race to sell as many BTC as you possibly can before everyone else gets their ASIC. This is doom scenario reality.

[jspielberg]

BTC will go down until it is almost worthless.

Reasons:
1. ASIC owners have no reason to keep their BTC when everyone else who has an ASIC is selling to recoup cost.
2. Aforementioned worsens the effects of rising difficulty by correlating them to dropping price.
3. 1 & 2 basically guarantee the demise of BTC price until a laughable level, not sure what that level is.
4. End result is extreme deflation - you haven't seen anything yet.

Simply, there is now a race to sell as many BTC as you possibly can before everyone else gets their ASIC. This is doom scenario reality.

Awesome... can't wait to buy lots more at 50 and 10!

[ujka]

ASIC owners? Where?
A few hundred Jalapeno owners, a few hundred Avalon owners, and... and... well, that's all.

[suprabitz]

so from june 5 to july 5 we're up 12m to 21m almost 100% increase... wow... and MOST of the backorders for BFL and Avalon are not filled - in fact batch 3 hasn't even shipped and many customers have requested refunds. As for BFL only a couple hundred 5 GH/s and a few SC and no rigs have shipped.

And Asicminer must have moved over 10,000 usb sticks at .3 MH/s each thats 3TH/s if you add it up, some serious hash for little sticks. And July 10 new asicminers being announced which will probably spur sales.

Looks like every month for at least the next few months its surely going to be close to doubling

[ujka]

so from june 5 to july 5 we're up 12m to 21m almost 100% increase... wow... and MOST of the backorders for BFL and Avalon are not filled - in fact batch 3 hasn't even shipped and many customers have requested refunds. As for BFL only a couple hundred 5 GH/s and a few SC and no rigs have shipped.

Or, looking at hashrate increase: from 130TH/s to 180TH/s. That's 50TH/s. How to account that in shipped units!? Must be that Avalon batch 2 is finalized and hashing (~40TH/s).

[HackneyB]

There are other startups hashing themselves and producing (and selling) ASIC hashing hardware, not to mention that GPU hashing is still going on and people are still joining just for fun, even if they won't care about profit. 

Asicminer is hashing themselves and selling devices to people.  Chips are now being sold as well, presumably all those chips will be hashing soon .. we're going to get flooded with hashes at an even faster pace now once Avalon and BFL buyers become the minority in the ASIC market.