January Bitcoin

[BrewMaster]

(i found this interesting and i didn't see anyone talking about it so here it goes)

every year in the past 4 years bitcoin price has a big drop about 3 weeks before Chinese New Yet (Lunar year) and we are at that point in time (4 weeks) and the sell off has started today.



so... what do you think?

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[Higher Altitude]

I also noticed it. We should learn our lesson at some point. Maybe next year we all prepare for it.   

[gentlemand]

This is the first year that China is almost fully irrelevant is it not? It may not behave in the same way this time. Or it could be down to general human biocycles. Let us see what April/May ish brings.

[BrewMaster]

This is the first year that China is almost fully irrelevant is it not? It may not behave in the same way this time. Or it could be down to general human biocycles. Let us see what April/May ish brings.

well Lunar New Year is not specific to China. many of the Asian countries celebrate it. including China, Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore,...

and it also happens to be in first month of the year (in a Gregorian calendar) and that can mean a slower market anyways.

[HeRetiK]

Interesting find. Not that I would read much into it, but a similar seasonal pattern could be seen a couple of decades ago in traditional stock markets during december -- as fond managers were bringing their books in order while closing their yearly accounts and selling speculative assets for more conservative investments.

Of course this pattern only lasted as long as no one was aware of it. Once word got out people started trading accordingly and the pattern was no more. Given how young the crypto market is you might be onto a similar phenomena that no one (publicly) noticed so far.

The good thing is you will now be proven right no matter what happens next year: If the pattern persists you are right because you were able to call it. If it doesn't, it's because people noticed your thread and are now trading accordingly.

[pereira4]

This year china is less relevant in exchanges, since they have all been banned, but the big chines billionaires are still trading bitcoin over the counter.

I believe we will rebound after we touch that long term support line and we will hit an all time high in the following months, not worried at all.

[bob3772]

(i found this interesting and i didn't see anyone talking about it so here it goes)

every year in the past 4 years bitcoin price has a big drop about 3 weeks before Chinese New Yet (Lunar year) and we are at that point in time (4 weeks) and the sell off has started today.



so... what do you think?

It's something I've seen mentioned elsewhere, I'm very skeptical if that's actually the reason of just one of many contributing factors or simply just a very bizarre coincidence. I know the lunar new year is a big event but I don't see it having such a damaging effect on the crypto market. There's nowhere near such a correlation with other big holidays such as Christmas.