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Author Topic: Bitcoin Price Predictions  (Read 7454 times)
t3a
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October 04, 2011, 10:09:16 PM
 #81

As a newbie to Bitcoins the thing I find most frustrating is finding out where to buy. Yes I know there are exchanges Mt Gox, Tradehill ... However I went to buy from Mt Gox (buying from Australia) only to find out their Australian bank account was closed pending fraud allegations. I went over to Tradehill to purchase only to find a few paragraphs on how Australian authorities want full verification (100 point ID) to withdraw funds.

Does anyone know where I can reliably purchase Bitcoins without going through red-tape, or paying exorbitant bank fees?

I'm willing to purchase via PayPal, MoneyBookers, Western Union, Australian bank transfer, or Cash.

Without new buyers for Bitcoins prices are doomed.
How much would you be willing to send in cash?

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lowlevel
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October 07, 2011, 06:15:46 PM
 #82

I'm not going to be very popular, but based on the past month here's my prediction for the next little while Wink

Period              High     Low
July 10 - 16   -  $16     $12
July 17 - 23   -  $19     $10
July 24 - 30   -  $13     $8

Long term, I dunno... 

Aug     $14
Sept    $20
Oct      $5
Nov     $0.71
Dec     -$1 (At this point, you'll have to pay people to take them. HA! j/k)

-lowlevel

Here comes November!!

Would you rather talk Altcoins? - https://cryptocointalk.com/
EvryIntl
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October 07, 2011, 06:38:42 PM
 #83

IMO, we need to see inflation really start to move in most currencies before people stop hoarding fiat (notably dollars) and start looking for places to move money.  That's when BTC can move up.

One more round of deleveraging to find the ultimate bottom in BTC, which I suspect will spike just below $4 USD.  Then I anticipate some base building for several months and a sustained rise, assuming the EU, Japan, and the US have started dropping fiat from helicopters.

One cannot disengage from the real world with BTC.  It's all about capital flows.
saethan
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October 07, 2011, 06:39:47 PM
 #84

Here's a good question for bitcoin price:  what happens next year at block 210000?
EvryIntl
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October 07, 2011, 06:45:30 PM
 #85

Here's a good question for bitcoin price:  what happens next year at block 210000?

Why would that matter?
saethan
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October 07, 2011, 07:05:53 PM
 #86

Here's a good question for bitcoin price:  what happens next year at block 210000?

Why would that matter?

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/How_bitcoin_works

Particularly,

Quote
First, the block producer gets a bounty of some number of bitcoins, which is agreed-upon by the network. (Currently this bounty is 50 bitcoins; this value will halve every 210,000 blocks.)

Which is the reason there will never be more than 21 million bitcoins, it's a mathematical series that infinitely approaches 21 million.  If you halve the amount produced after every 210,000 blocks, you know after the first 210,000 you will have half of everything that will ever be available, which is (210000*50) = 10.5 million btc.  Not sure exactly how it is programmed, but this either means at some point new blocks will produce the smallest decimal allowed by the language it is written in, or they will produce zero new bitcoins, and profits from mining will come 100% from transaction fees.  By that point, well beyond any of our life expectancies, bitcoin will most likely be long dead, though.  Or insanely popular, in which case my grandkids will be -rich-.  Wink
EvryIntl
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October 07, 2011, 07:15:34 PM
 #87

Here's a good question for bitcoin price:  what happens next year at block 210000?

Why would that matter?

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/How_bitcoin_works

Particularly,

Quote
First, the block producer gets a bounty of some number of bitcoins, which is agreed-upon by the network. (Currently this bounty is 50 bitcoins; this value will halve every 210,000 blocks.)

Which is the reason there will never be more than 21 million bitcoins, it's a mathematical series that infinitely approaches 21 million.  If you halve the amount produced after every 210,000 blocks, you know after the first 210,000 you will have half of everything that will ever be available, which is (210000*50) = 10.5 million btc.  Not sure exactly how it is programmed, but this either means at some point new blocks will produce the smallest decimal allowed by the language it is written in, or they will produce zero new bitcoins, and profits from mining will come 100% from transaction fees.  By that point, well beyond any of our life expectancies, bitcoin will most likely be long dead, though.  Or insanely popular, in which case my grandkids will be -rich-.  Wink

Aahh.  I gotcha.  I didn't realize the payout halved at 210000 - I get the rest of the situation.

However, IMO, it's irrelevant.  The intrinsic value of any currency is based on what it can purchase - nothing more, nothing less.  Assuming that the community of products and services grows and the general acceptability improves (which, IMO, is a function of usability to the Average Joe/Jane  and general stability relative to the USD more than anything else), then the incentive to mine any number of coins should be there as long as the cost in fiat doesn't exceed the relative purchasing power of one BTC.  In other words, I'd expect this to be more of an economic question rather than a technical one.

BTC will never die if the transaction fees generated still create a real-world profit.  Someone will take the profit.  If it' s not profitable, well than that's a different story.

Based on the Austrian theory of money, any "reasonable" amount of currency in circulation is enough to fullfill the role of money.  As long there's enough such that everyone can get some, it will suffice perfectly well and increase in purchasing power.

At least we'll test this theory, I suppose....
saethan
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October 07, 2011, 07:34:04 PM
 #88

Since, at the moment, bitcoins go out to 8 decimal places, there will be 2,100,000,000,000,000 total units available for trade ~130 years from now.  Wink

One issue, though, is - early adopters will have a much larger proportion of total btc than late adopters.

I have a not insignificant proportion of all btc that will ever exist.  I'll hang on to it for now.  It costs me about $10 a month to mine coins(increase in wattage from running gpu at 100%, the computer itself is on 24/7 anyways since it runs a couple servers)...  I pay more than that to play a video game.  Tongue  I'll bet those few bucks a month on the off-chance bitcoins become stable at a high price.
NeonFlash
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October 08, 2011, 02:58:06 PM
 #89

It's below 4 USD already. Keeps going down almost everyday Sad
BitcoinPorn
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October 08, 2011, 03:01:20 PM
 #90

July - $35
Aug - $45
Sep - $50
Oct - $50
Nov - $45
Dec - $35
Jan - $25

I see a jump in the near future, but that will pop and fizzle down to a steady 20 to 30 per Coin.  My charting is boring, but that is because I see realistic sways in the price of btc until security is beefed up.  Unexpected events I always see as swaying the price higher, even if it seems as though there is bad news out there, most people tend to stick with the coin I've noticed, with good reason.

What a moran.

hongus
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October 09, 2011, 04:46:13 AM
 #91

October - $4
November - $5
December - $6
January - $12
February - $25
March - $40
April - $10
May -$3
June - $0

It'll boom then crash

1HoNGusEgzyXfvQnxHrJjx4bunJRf9pK19
blue.mitzi
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October 09, 2011, 06:27:38 AM
 #92

5$ or 3€ or 2.20£ is base
bcforum
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October 09, 2011, 02:05:55 PM
 #93

Here's a good question for bitcoin price:  what happens next year at block 210000?

The price will go up.

Right now there are a bunch of professional miners who are attempting to make a living from mining bitcoins. Every month (when their bills come due) they sell a bunch of coins and drive the price down. When the difficulty vs. payout doubles, their income will halve and many will shutdown because they can't cover their costs anymore. You'll also see a flood of used mining rigs and GPUs hit ebay at that time.
The difficulty will gradually trickle down until only the most profitable miners and the enthusiasts are still mining.

If you found this post useful, feel free to share the wealth: 1E35gTBmJzPNJ3v72DX4wu4YtvHTWqNRbM
BitcoinPorn
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October 09, 2011, 02:19:42 PM
 #94

The difficulty will gradually trickle down until only the most profitable miners and the enthusiasts are still mining.
Basically just Mt Gox, who I assume will just end up buying out pools, Vlad, and Google mining with Solar Power.

blue.mitzi
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October 09, 2011, 03:05:22 PM
 #95

unless they can somehow remove the 21mil limitation it will be kept to a select few...... now if their was 100mil in circulation things would be up on price.
fivebells
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October 09, 2011, 03:47:57 PM
 #96

I'm not going to be very popular, but based on the past month here's my prediction for the next little while Wink

Period              High     Low
July 10 - 16   -  $16     $12
July 17 - 23   -  $19     $10
July 24 - 30   -  $13     $8

Long term, I dunno... 

Aug     $14
Sept    $20
Oct      $5
Nov     $0.71
Dec     -$1 (At this point, you'll have to pay people to take them. HA! j/k)

-lowlevel

Here comes November!!
  Wow, that was an impressively precise and accurate prediction.  How did you infer that?
payb.tc
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October 09, 2011, 03:49:09 PM
 #97

unless they can somehow remove the 21mil limitation it will be kept to a select few...... now if their was 100mil in circulation things would be up on price.

you think more coins in circulation = higher prices?

bcforum
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October 09, 2011, 07:06:53 PM
 #98

unless they can somehow remove the 21mil limitation it will be kept to a select few...... now if their was 100mil in circulation things would be up on price.

They can easily multiple the number of coins by shifting the decimal place in the bitcoin client. 1 coin magically becomes 2!

If you found this post useful, feel free to share the wealth: 1E35gTBmJzPNJ3v72DX4wu4YtvHTWqNRbM
razzintown
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October 10, 2011, 10:21:12 PM
 #99

Since, at the moment, bitcoins go out to 8 decimal places, there will be 2,100,000,000,000,000 total units available for trade ~130 years from now.

The 'analysts' saying there needs to be more than 21mil coins are very confused.

You should think of it as 21,000,000.00000000, or like saethan said, 21,000,000 x 10^8 individual units.

There's no problem with bitcoin always being significantly higher than USD and other government currencies. We don't need a 9.99 USD = 9.99 BTC merchandise theme. The old ways of selling things are afraid of counting more than 100 cents per dollar.

Computers, science, and even gasoline require more accuracy than two decimal places. Anything you do in a lab is *worthless* without at least 4 or 5 decimal places of accuracy.

Why shouldn't money be the same? We won't be counting out coins by hand in the future. There's no excuse for rounding.
bulanula
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October 10, 2011, 10:26:11 PM
 #100

unless they can somehow remove the 21mil limitation it will be kept to a select few...... now if their was 100mil in circulation things would be up on price.

you think more coins in circulation = higher prices?



LOL bet you he failed his economics module Smiley

Google scarcity mate.
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