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Author Topic: Almost no one will become a gazillionaire by adopting bitcoin  (Read 2656 times)
blogospheroid
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June 26, 2011, 04:38:29 PM
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Many new comers to bitcoin are afraid that the early adopters to bitcoin will become the new super rich.

But one important aspect is forgotten. The bitcoin rich are economically well off, but they're not politically powerful. They have high amounts of bitcoin and most of them will get rid of a large percentage of their coins when the value reaches certain levels that correspond with their financial goals.

It's difficult to say this, but they will face a lot of trouble of the kind they've never dealt with before. Unprotected wealth is not easy. It is difficult to maintain financial wealth without a certain level of political certainty. Most people who rise in the real world of wealth have legal assurances. The bitcoin rich have none. 

So, my prediction is that very few early adopters will keep large amounts of Bitcoin in the post $50 or $100 range. The new owners will be the ones who bought at realtively higher rates.

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bcpokey
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June 26, 2011, 04:53:43 PM
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Many new comers to bitcoin are afraid that the early adopters to bitcoin will become the new super rich.

But one important aspect is forgotten. The bitcoin rich are economically well off, but they're not politically powerful. They have high amounts of bitcoin and most of them will get rid of a large percentage of their coins when the value reaches certain levels that correspond with their financial goals.

It's difficult to say this, but they will face a lot of trouble of the kind they've never dealt with before. Unprotected wealth is not easy. It is difficult to maintain financial wealth without a certain level of political certainty. Most people who rise in the real world of wealth have legal assurances. The bitcoin rich have none. 

So, my prediction is that very few early adopters will keep large amounts of Bitcoin in the post $50 or $100 range. The new owners will be the ones who bought at realtively higher rates.

This should be entitled:

Almost no one actually ever becomes rich.
Litt
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June 26, 2011, 05:29:38 PM
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You don't have to become rich in bitcoin to live a life where your wealth does not lose it's value. How can you possibly say that your wealth is protected by politics of today when people in power are inflating the currency to take the value of your savings away from you. If you don't see the way the current system works, you are in no position to judge bitcoin. There is just no way you could possibly understand one and not the other. You need to ask, who are you trying to protect your wealth from. That is a better question.
Slab Squathrust
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June 26, 2011, 10:23:38 PM
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Even if you won a sizable amount, it seems the difficulty comes in moving cash from the exchanges to a bank account.  While it will probably never be an issue for me, the $1000 daily withdrawal limit seems to be a bottleneck on moving wealth in and out of the currency.  Imagine selling a bunch of coins at about $30 and not being able to get it all out before gox got hacked.  That would be pretty unnerving.   
blogospheroid
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June 27, 2011, 01:22:37 AM
 #5

You don't have to become rich in bitcoin to live a life where your wealth does not lose it's value. How can you possibly say that your wealth is protected by politics of today when people in power are inflating the currency to take the value of your savings away from you. If you don't see the way the current system works, you are in no position to judge bitcoin. There is just no way you could possibly understand one and not the other. You need to ask, who are you trying to protect your wealth from. That is a better question.

Please see my other post in which I mentioned how the rules for CDS are being changed midgame. I don't think that the present system is great. Far from it.

I'm just mentioning that political power is important in the present system to guard wealth and that reduces and slows down the adoption of a concept like bitcoin. I think that in absence of substantial political power, the bitcoin early adopters will cash out at higher rates.

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June 28, 2011, 11:02:56 PM
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You don't have to become rich in bitcoin to live a life where your wealth does not lose it's value. How can you possibly say that your wealth is protected by politics of today when people in power are inflating the currency to take the value of your savings away from you. If you don't see the way the current system works, you are in no position to judge bitcoin. There is just no way you could possibly understand one and not the other. You need to ask, who are you trying to protect your wealth from. That is a better question.

Please see my other post in which I mentioned how the rules for CDS are being changed midgame. I don't think that the present system is great. Far from it.

I'm just mentioning that political power is important in the present system to guard wealth and that reduces and slows down the adoption of a concept like bitcoin. I think that in absence of substantial political power, the bitcoin early adopters will cash out at higher rates.

Well if we currently already had complete separation of currency and government then what you say about political power behind bitcoin may ring true. As far as I'm concerned, they are one of the same at this point which is the main reason why the current system is failing so miserably.

I can see your point of view thinking that political support is what we need to survive. I also feel that if we can get a leader like John F Kennedy, Lincoln, or Jefferson to stand up and take bitcoin to the next level, it will be a great thing to have happened to bitcoin. However, I am much more inclined to think that we can achieve this goal with or without any political affiliation of any kind. We just need to support of the people. I prefer that bitcoin be a fresh start with complete separate of bank and state.
killer2021
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June 29, 2011, 01:59:12 PM
 #7

Its also important to mention that the early adopters were assuming huge risks at the time. How many people are really going to buy bitcoins that at the time had no real use? The only reason they bought in was because they liked the idea. For that sake, I applaud that they put their money where their mouth was. That was a huge leap of faith on their part (that the system would work). With that being said, we can't really bash the early adopters because without them bitcoin might have died off early on.

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June 29, 2011, 02:11:19 PM
 #8

Many new comers to bitcoin are afraid that the early adopters to bitcoin will become the new super rich.

"Many" are afraid? How do we know this? I have heard a lot of people address this but i never gt the impression that anyone was fearful of it.
skyhigh
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June 29, 2011, 02:37:53 PM
 #9

Apart from the yakuza collecting the first 1.6mill before difficulty moved up for the first time and the fact that yakuza probably never stopped mining, what amount you think early adopters hold ?

yakuza at 2.0mill                                                                                     2.000.000
1st commercial adopter at 300k                                                                   300.000
first 10 geeks at 100k each                                                                          100.000 * 10
100 poor geeks that could only afford a single card 20k each                           20.000 *  100


then there are the rest of the mortals after the boom, 60k of them average             25
                                                                                              ----------------------------------
                                                                                    total                   6.700.000


If yakuza's intentions are legit, there is only a handful of people that will make a lot of cash from being there early. Less then 100. out of 7 bill people living on earth and 1500 being billionaires in 2011. This 100 will never really make any impact no matter how high BTC price would run EVER.
Jaime Frontero
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June 29, 2011, 04:22:07 PM
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Apart from the yakuza collecting the first 1.6mill before difficulty moved up for the first time and the fact that yakuza probably never stopped mining, what amount you think early adopters hold ?

yakuza at 2.0mill                                                                                     2.000.000
1st commercial adopter at 300k                                                                   300.000
first 10 geeks at 100k each                                                                          100.000 * 10
100 poor geeks that could only afford a single card 20k each                           20.000 *  100


then there are the rest of the mortals after the boom, 60k of them average             25
                                                                                              ----------------------------------
                                                                                    total                   6.700.000


If yakuza's intentions are legit, there is only a handful of people that will make a lot of cash from being there early. Less then 100. out of 7 bill people living on earth and 1500 being billionaires in 2011. This 100 will never really make any impact no matter how high BTC price would run EVER.

huh?

yakuza???
blogospheroid
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June 30, 2011, 10:24:24 AM
 #11

Many new comers to bitcoin are afraid that the early adopters to bitcoin will become the new super rich.

"Many" are afraid? How do we know this? I have heard a lot of people address this but i never gt the impression that anyone was fearful of it.

Sorry, the correct term should be . Many new comers to bitcoin are concerned/worried.

neptop
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June 30, 2011, 10:35:22 AM
 #12

I agree. I sold tons of Bitcoin when on coin was worth less than 0.01USD. Bitcoin is important as a currency, too important to simply abuse it as a way to become a millionaire.

But as always, don't trust me by my words. Think for yourself! Have a look on who actually are the big players, who earns lots of BCs every month and when they appeared.

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bonker
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June 30, 2011, 10:39:44 AM
 #13

Apart from the yakuza collecting the first 1.6mill before difficulty moved up for the first time and the fact that yakuza probably never stopped mining, what amount you think early adopters hold ?

yakuza at 2.0mill                                                                                     2.000.000
1st commercial adopter at 300k                                                                   300.000
first 10 geeks at 100k each                                                                          100.000 * 10
100 poor geeks that could only afford a single card 20k each                           20.000 *  100


then there are the rest of the mortals after the boom, 60k of them average             25
                                                                                              ----------------------------------
                                                                                    total                   6.700.000


If yakuza's intentions are legit, there is only a handful of people that will make a lot of cash from being there early. Less then 100. out of 7 bill people living on earth and 1500 being billionaires in 2011. This 100 will never really make any impact no matter how high BTC price would run EVER.

huh?

yakuza???

Let's not forget the Ninjas

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