[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[Deprived]

The motion to allow investment in CIPHERMINE bonds didn't receive enough votes for an outcome to be determined (although a clear majority of those voted went for YES it needs to break the 50% mark to be a valid result).  Basically there wasn't a valid quorum.

I've put the motion up again for slightly longer this time - but if the majority of investors aren't around then obviously it'll not receive sufficient votes again.  In which case at least I know not to spend time trying to find investment opportunities (suitable investments are generally not going to available at face price for too long - so leaving a motion up for weeks isn't a viable option).

I dont think the way you talk is suitable to your investors ,  It's much more like a Threaten. like if we dont agree with you,we will lose the suitable investments.  Also To my opinion and most company and government did, If a motion of vote to reinvest cant get enough "YES" means disagree, you should not compel us to vote it again.

Noone's compelled to vote again.  And I've never tried to pressure anyone into agreeing with me - just into voting.  If there'd been more NO votes than YES (even if a lot less than 50%) I'd have dropped this one.

The majority of people who voted, voted Yes.  I can't start assuming people who didn't vote meant 'NO' - the most obvious conclusion is they had no interest in the outcome OR weren't around to vote.

My comments on further investment are simply that if there aren't enough active investors willing to vote on motions then there's no point me putting up short-term motions on things which are time-critical.  I'd still put up long motions on things without the same time element - but there just aren't any of those around (Coinlenders was one - as it had unlimited supply of investment at face value so for something like that I could put up a long-term motion).

The real problem is there's a lack of suitable investments - things with a near-guaranteed face-value (in BTC) and where there's good disclosure of what the funds are being used for.  So when such things do show up they tend not to be available for long.

[xuanxuan3317]

Noone's compelled to vote again.  And I've never tried to pressure anyone into agreeing with me - just into voting.  If there'd been more NO votes than YES (even if a lot less than 50%) I'd have dropped this one.

The majority of people who voted, voted Yes.  I can't start assuming people who didn't vote meant 'NO' - the most obvious conclusion is they had no interest in the outcome OR weren't around to vote.

My comments on further investment are simply that if there aren't enough active investors willing to vote on motions then there's no point me putting up short-term motions on things which are time-critical.  I'd still put up long motions on things without the same time element - but there just aren't any of those around (Coinlenders was one - as it had unlimited supply of investment at face value so for something like that I could put up a long-term motion).

The real problem is there's a lack of suitable investments - things with a near-guaranteed face-value (in BTC) and where there's good disclosure of what the funds are being used for.  So when such things do show up they tend not to be available for long.
[/quote]

Yes, I accept your explaination, but 2 things you need to know.1. I remember you said" A vote of ABSTAIN indicates you either don't have a strong view or don't care whether DMS invests in CIPHERMINE bonds or not."   that is your word. Am I right? how can you overturn yourself to assume those people just weren't there at that time？ 2. I am really care about your investment, , So I take a time to review the CIPHERMINE's plan. I dont turst her just with general plan And give us word how much devidend we will get. she just talk, cant be trusted. If you find some suitable investments, no matter how much is the devidend. I think more investors will support you, also include me. Anyway,thanks for your explaination. I hope you do think about this investment.

[Rannasha]

The problem is that if someone doesn't vote, there is no way to tell whether it is because they don't have an opinion on the matter or whether they didn't know a motion was going on. The motions last for only a few days and I can imagine that there's plenty of people that don't check the security page every day.

[Lohoris]

So voting NO and not voting has identical impact on the outcome of a motion - but a different impact on how I interpret the results and thus act going forward.

In this case it makes sense, sorry for the misunderstanding!

There's no point even discussing changing the voting rules - as that would require a vote to pass by an even larger majority

(just for the sake of argument)
Sure but if you wanted to change the rules you could post a longer vote, as opposite to a short one like this one.

[Deprived]

The transfer bot wasn't working for a few hours.  Problem was me not the bot - I restarted the computer then when I set the bot running again I accidentally left it in read-only mode (where it doesn't actually send).

Just noticed it whilst auditing prior to dividends/report and have set it running properly again plus got it to process the back-log (there were 4 transfers in that hadn't been processed).

All transfers should now be up to date and the bot's running as usual..

[Deprived]

Sold   1347
Swapped   0
Total   1347
Price   0.01209
Total   16.28523
Less Fee   16.25265954
Man Fee   0.487579786

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1547.659394
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.3930587
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.7114081
Coinlenders Cash   3.95265895
Just-Dice Balance    246.80000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,192.22652020
   
Outstanding MINING   181398
Outstanding SELLING   181398
Outstanding PURCHASE   8665
Effective Units   190063
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,186.72895876
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01150528
Days Dividend Post Div   397.76
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,186.72895876
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01150528
PURCHASE selling price    0.01208
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01128
   
J-D House profit at report   6143

Nice profit on J-D today - together with the weekly LTC-ATF.B1 dividend that meant NAV/U hardly dropped at all today (it doesn't drop a lot anyway but today it only fell by about 1/3 of the MINING dividend).

[Progressive]

This is probably the reason why SELLING investors didn't vote - the email notification was not working for either of CIPHERMINE motions.

Actually I haven't received e-mails about motions in a while, either on BTC-TC or on LTC-GLOBAL, across multiple securities.

Good call.  Looking through my mail history I see that I haven't been getting any at all either... I'll look into it.

Add: think I figured it out.  I broke it when I added the ability to check/uncheck a "send a copy to all asset holders" on the notifications.  Should be good to go now.

[Deprived]

This is probably the reason why SELLING investors didn't vote - the email notification was not working for either of CIPHERMINE motions.

Actually I haven't received e-mails about motions in a while, either on BTC-TC or on LTC-GLOBAL, across multiple securities.

Good call.  Looking through my mail history I see that I haven't been getting any at all either... I'll look into it.

Add: think I figured it out.  I broke it when I added the ability to check/uncheck a "send a copy to all asset holders" on the notifications.  Should be good to go now.

That could well explain it.

I've done a news item announcing the motion - which I set to email to all SELLING investors, but not to post as news on the front page (as it would just be spam to anyone not holding SELLING).

[Rannasha]

This is probably the reason why SELLING investors didn't vote - the email notification was not working for either of CIPHERMINE motions.

Actually I haven't received e-mails about motions in a while, either on BTC-TC or on LTC-GLOBAL, across multiple securities.

Good call.  Looking through my mail history I see that I haven't been getting any at all either... I'll look into it.

Add: think I figured it out.  I broke it when I added the ability to check/uncheck a "send a copy to all asset holders" on the notifications.  Should be good to go now.

That could well explain it.

I've done a news item announcing the motion - which I set to email to all SELLING investors, but not to post as news on the front page (as it would just be spam to anyone not holding SELLING).

Didn't get any email about this news item either, so there may still be something wrong with BTC-TCs mailing system, although I have received trade notification mails just fine recently.

edit: Disregard this post, just remembered I had turned off email notifications for news posts on BTC-TC.

[pheaonix]

The motion to allow investment in CIPHERMINE bonds didn't receive enough votes for an outcome to be determined (although a clear majority of those voted went for YES it needs to break the 50% mark to be a valid result).  Basically there wasn't a valid quorum.

I've put the motion up again for slightly longer this time - but if the majority of investors aren't around then obviously it'll not receive sufficient votes again.  In which case at least I know not to spend time trying to find investment opportunities (suitable investments are generally not going to available at face price for too long - so leaving a motion up for weeks isn't a viable option).

i believe all holders will appreciate you finding good investment opportunities to grow our capital.

also, dms mining is super over valued. 30% difficulty increase and almost change in price.

[Deprived]

The motion to allow investment in CIPHERMINE bonds didn't receive enough votes for an outcome to be determined (although a clear majority of those voted went for YES it needs to break the 50% mark to be a valid result).  Basically there wasn't a valid quorum.

I've put the motion up again for slightly longer this time - but if the majority of investors aren't around then obviously it'll not receive sufficient votes again.  In which case at least I know not to spend time trying to find investment opportunities (suitable investments are generally not going to available at face price for too long - so leaving a motion up for weeks isn't a viable option).

i believe all holders will appreciate you finding good investment opportunities to grow our capital.

also, dms mining is super over valued. 30% difficulty increase and almost change in price.

30% change in difficulty doesn't necessarily it means it's overvalued - it could have been undervalued before (not saying that's the case - just pointing out there's two options not one).

[Deprived]

Sold   906
Swapped   0
Total   906
Price   0.01208
Total   10.94448
Less Fee   10.92259104
Man Fee   0.327677731

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1552.757764
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.5136136
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.775672
Coinlenders Cash   3.95488561
Just-Dice Balance    247.00000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,197.71193475
   
Outstanding MINING   182315
Outstanding SELLING   182315
Outstanding PURCHASE   8654
Effective Units   190969
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,192.18816732
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01147929
Days Dividend Post Div   396.86
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,192.18816732
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01147929
PURCHASE selling price    0.01205
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01125
   
J-D House profit at report   6237

[Progressive]

I would like to remind to fellow shareholders that they should vote on the DMS.SELLING motion (https://btct.co/security/DMS.SELLING, tab 'Motions')
The proposed bonds were approved on BTCT, we could miss the opportunity! (like with the XBOND)

I voted YES because I like that the bond has face value in BTC and pays high interest fixed in fiat (the worst scenario here is BTC price tripling), also there is a possibility that we will be able to sell the bonds later with a premium (just like with other bonds - LTC-ATF.B1, Ukyo.Loan, XBOND).

This motion isn't saying "buy CIPHERMINE's bonds for 25%" - it enables Deprived to do what he thinks is best for DMS (up to 25% investment). If there will be any doubt (e.g. about the backing of the bond) Deprived can't hazard DMS funds according to the contract (see below).
If you are want more information, here he questioned the issuer of the bond: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286634.msg3078282#msg3078282

The motion says

This motion is to allow capital to be invested into bonds/secured loans issued by CIPHERMINE provided the bonds meet all criteria for investment defined in our contract.  Such investment would be limited to 25% of capital (amount invested may well be less than that at manager's discretion).

And the contract says

Investments (including loans to other companies) must meet ALL of the following criteria:

They must be BTC denominated.
They must have a precise face value with guaranteed redemption at that face value (other than small administrative fees)
They must anticipate paying a return of at least 10% per year
They must be backed by significant assets making the risk of default absolutely minimal
Issuer must have no history of defaulting, paying substantially late or failing to deliver on promises/guarantees made by themselves or companies managed/operated by them.
Issuer must have a significant track record of successfully managing business(es) in accordance with their contracts and with a profitable outcome for investors.

[Deprived]

I've now purchase 400 BTC worth of Ciphermine bonds for DMS.

IMPORTANT : Please read the below before replying.

At present the motion hasn't completed on this - and it isn't clear whether it will pass or not.  I had already arrange with Kate that we would have the option to purchase this large chunk directly if the motion passed.  I decided to go ahead anyway - to lock in the opportunity if the motion passes.

If the motion passes DMS will keep the bonds.

If the motion fails then I will:

1.  Fill all orders above face value on the market - with DMS retaining any profit from that.
2.  Buy ALL the rest at full face value from DMS.  I can move 400 of my personal BTC on-site within a day no problem.

Any loss - including full default - on the bonds prior to the motion passing is on ME not DMS.

Basically I'm personally guaranteeing zero loss to DMS if the motion fails (and possibly some profit anyway) whilst locking in an investment for us if the motion passes.  So unless/until the motion passes this is effectively invested in me - not in CIPHERMINE bonds.

You should NOT let this influence your vote.  If you believe it's a unsound investment then you should still vote NO - I'm not asking for or expecting more YES votes just because I've commited some of my personal BTC to lock in an option for us.  If you were intending to vote YES anyway then obviously this isn't going to change anything.

EDIT:  Just to note that I may sell some at above face value even before the motion ends.  Any profits from that do, of course, stay in DMS.  Whilst DMS doesn't actively trade I'm always willing to sell its investments if there's sufficient markup over face value.

[Deprived]

Sold   1429
Swapped   0
Total   1429
Price   0.01205
Total   17.21945
Less Fee   17.1850111
Man Fee   0.515550333

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1163.532459
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    400.00000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   201.6318028
Coinlenders CD 12/9   101.8386748
Coinlenders Cash   3.95711353
Just-Dice Balance    247.10000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,208.77004975
   
Outstanding MINING   183719
Outstanding SELLING   183719
Outstanding PURCHASE   8646
Effective Units   192365
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   86,933,018
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00002892
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00144625
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00289249
365 days (Buyback)    0.01055760
405 days (IPO)    0.01171460
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01156998
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.01185923
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,203.20590310
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01145326
Days Dividend Post Div   395.96
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,203.20590310
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01145326
PURCHASE selling price    0.01203
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01122
   
J-D House profit at report   6268

Have listed the CIPHERMINE bonds in the report - but obviously they'll be replaced back by BTC if the motion fails.  Added them in so anyone verifying the report can do so and also to make it easier to update if we sell some before the motion ends.

Obviously if the motion doesn't get enough votes either way this time it won't go up again - as there'll be no way to buy them at face value after then anyway.

[pheaonix]

i did some napkin math and looking at the current price of dms mining compared with the new price of USB miners, basically the least efficient mining option, and dms mining is almost twice as expensive per mh. very rough calculation, obviously excluding electricity cost but still. am i missing something? for some reason i feel like something is off.

i hope this means for some good dividends for selling.

[BitThink]

The selling's dividend is a refund due to difficulty increase. It equals 388 * old daily mining dividend - 400 * new mining dividend + invest income. So the price of mining or price of selling really does not matter. Even if the MINING is over priced, holders of SELLING will only win when the MINING price comes back to the correct value. Selling holders  lose money if the MINING price keeps high unless you hold it till the fund closed. But remember, when fund closes, MINING holders get 365 * daily dividend.

[Rannasha]

i did some napkin math and looking at the current price of dms mining compared with the new price of USB miners, basically the least efficient mining option, and dms mining is almost twice as expensive per mh. very rough calculation, obviously excluding electricity cost but still. am i missing something? for some reason i feel like something is off.

i hope this means for some good dividends for selling.

USB miners are now between 0.1 and 0.12 BTC, lets use 0.1. Note that this doesn't include shipping, which can be a significant factor when ordering small quantities.

The USB miner hashes at 330 MHash/s, so you get 3.3 GHash/s per BTC. DMS.MINING currently trades around 0.0025 BTC and pays dividends corresponding to 5 MHash/s, so you get roughly 2 GHash/s per BTC.

So yes, USB miners seem to be a better investment. However, if you add shipping costs and further overhead, the USB miners will become more expensive. And of course, power costs can't be ignored, especially if you have a host machine that would otherwise have not been running.

Since DMS.MINING is the cheapest PMB-like construction (if you only look at hashrate versus price) and it's already less efficient than the worst ASIC miner (in terms of hashrate/price), then imagine how low the profitability of other PMBs is.

[pheaonix]

The selling's dividend is a refund due to difficulty increase. It equals 388 * old daily mining dividend - 400 * new mining dividend + invest income. So the price of mining or price of selling really does not matter. Even if the MINING is over priced, holders of SELLING will only win when the MINING price comes back to the correct value. Selling holders  lose money if the MINING price keeps high unless you hold it till the fund closed. But remember, when fund closes, MINING holders get 365 * daily dividend.

yes, i should have done more research before investing.

it seems mining investors are heavily favored in the terms.

[Deprived]

The selling's dividend is a refund due to difficulty increase. It equals 388 * old daily mining dividend - 400 * new mining dividend + invest income. So the price of mining or price of selling really does not matter. Even if the MINING is over priced, holders of SELLING will only win when the MINING price comes back to the correct value. Selling holders  lose money if the MINING price keeps high unless you hold it till the fund closed. But remember, when fund closes, MINING holders get 365 * daily dividend.

yes, i should have done more research before investing.

it seems mining investors are heavily favored in the terms.

It's not so much that they're favoured as that they have to be protected.

Mining investors are betting that the recent very fast rises in difficulty are going to stop soon.  Capital can't be returned to SELLING investors until it's certain that it won't end up being owed to MINING investors.

So right now, at the prices the shares are trading at, SELLING investors are only looking at a fairly small profit on their investment.  But it isn't anything like as low as it may at first seem.  IF difficulty continues rising at the same sort of rates (which is what they're betting on) then over half of their capital would be returned in the next 2 dividends - and most of it within months.  So although the profit is low (again - only IF they're right) they don't have to tie up capital very long to realise the profit.

The opposite is true for MINING investors - they can potentially make big profits but ONLY if difficulty slows down rising pretty soon.  And even then it would take a long time for them to get that profit in most scenarios (exception being if difficulty stopped rising totally for some reason and there was good reason to believe it wouldn't rise again in the near future iin which case SELLING should vote to close and MINING would get a massive profit immediately).