[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[Deprived]

Difficulty just jumped by 32%. Tomorrows SELLING dividend will be 1.189 mBTC, the new MINING dividend will be 1690 satoshi per day.

Agree with the new MINING dividend but getting a very different SELLING dividend.

Yeah, I found an error in my calculation. I don't have access to my desktop machine with most of my Mathematica notebooks (including DMS calculations that do tend to give good results), so I hastily slapped something together.

Calculation's easy if you know the previous day's NAV/U (in last report) and the new MINING divend.

NAV/U - (401*MINNG DIV) = SELLING DIV

i.e. how much of NAV/U is left to dividend out if we set aside 401 days of it (400 as that's the reserve target plus 1 for tomorrow's MINING DIV).

That's not how I work it out - as I have to recalculate it based on actual new NAV/U, but now we have nothing generating income other than the last few days of the CL CD (plus CIPHERMINE.B1 dividends each weekend) it should be pretty exact.

Checking it I get :

0.00859085 - (401*0.00001690) = 0.00181395

Which is, of course, slightly different to what I posted as well.

Turns out mine was wrong too - as I'd not adjusted the cash in account on BTC-TC to the current figure (so it still had the one from yesterday's report without yesterday's MINING dividend removed).

So here's a better version of the spreadsheet :

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)   1127.676895
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    360.61000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9   203.3303975
Coinlenders Cash   0
Just-Dice Balance    153.86146722
TOTAL ASSETS    1,936.18875994
   
Outstanding MINING   210981
Outstanding SELLING   210981
Outstanding PURCHASE   14397
Effective Units   225378
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   148,819,200
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00001690
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00084483
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00168966
365 days (Buyback)    0.00616724
405 days (IPO)    0.00684311
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.00675862
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.00692759
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,932.38064697
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.00857395
Days Dividend Post Div   507.44
SELLING Dividend    0.00181533
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,523.24518627
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.00675862

It still differs from the quick calculation - but only in last few decimal places which is down to the spreadsheet using internally longer precision for the MINING dividend (which when multipled by 225000 ends up altering results a tiny bit).

[BitThink]

Thanks for the report.

Some people are still dumping SELLING at unreasonable low price now. Although I am happy to get those cheap shares, I will still feel better if they do that not because they don't know there's a better option. They can just buy MINING at a very cheap price now. Then with the pair, I think Deprived offered 0.0075 for it, or they can just wait a while to get 0.8+.

So if you know this and still want to sell it under 0.006, maybe for quick cash, I will buy them and feel much better. Sorry for my fellow bidders, I know I'm a little bit stupid.

[twentyseventy]

I've been very happy with the operation of this asset until this time. Deprived, you stated that you had a good idea that the closure of BTCT was coming - why did you still continue to pursue an investment in CIPHERMINE if the liquidity of these bonds could have been such an issue, especially at such an early date?

SELLING did approve the investment, so a significant amount of responsibility lies there, but this investment is only 1-2 weeks old and there is already talk of liquidation value.

I only became confident that was the case within the last week - after the CIPHERMINE.B1 investment.  I wouldn't have proposed it or done it if I'd believed at the time that there was a significant likelihood of BTC-TC's imminent demise.  My belief changed from "he's having to pay lawyers to tidy up the TOS and/or get rid of US customers" to "This looks like closure is a real likelihood" at the point where signups and asset creation were disabled and he didn't respond to the initial queries about it whilst answering other questions.

That belief is why, the evening before BTC-TC close, I sold back 1K CIPHERMINE.B1 at about .0103.  Until then I'd only been trickling them out at .0105+.  At that point, whilst I still rated closure as a fairly likely outcome. I DID expect there to be significantly more time until the shit hit the fan : so I didn't want to scare the market down.

Fair enough. Unless it seems like CIPHERMINE.B1 will be redeemable at face value soon, I'll probably end up taking the NAV/U plus CIPHERMINE.B1 offer in a few days / week. The bond will probably be decently profitable as long as Kate doesn't go off the rails and go around forcing a buyback or something of the sort.

[FloatesMcgoates]

I've been very happy with the operation of this asset until this time. Deprived, you stated that you had a good idea that the closure of BTCT was coming - why did you still continue to pursue an investment in CIPHERMINE if the liquidity of these bonds could have been such an issue, especially at such an early date?

SELLING did approve the investment, so a significant amount of responsibility lies there, but this investment is only 1-2 weeks old and there is already talk of liquidation value.

I only became confident that was the case within the last week - after the CIPHERMINE.B1 investment.  I wouldn't have proposed it or done it if I'd believed at the time that there was a significant likelihood of BTC-TC's imminent demise.  My belief changed from "he's having to pay lawyers to tidy up the TOS and/or get rid of US customers" to "This looks like closure is a real likelihood" at the point where signups and asset creation were disabled and he didn't respond to the initial queries about it whilst answering other questions.

That belief is why, the evening before BTC-TC close, I sold back 1K CIPHERMINE.B1 at about .0103.  Until then I'd only been trickling them out at .0105+.  At that point, whilst I still rated closure as a fairly likely outcome. I DID expect there to be significantly more time until the shit hit the fan : so I didn't want to scare the market down.

Fair enough. Unless it seems like CIPHERMINE.B1 will be redeemable at face value soon, I'll probably end up taking the NAV/U plus CIPHERMINE.B1 offer in a few days / week. The bond will probably be decently profitable as long as Kate doesn't go off the rails and go around forcing a buyback or something of the sort.

Ehh I'd rather just hold on to my DMS assets than deal with holding ciphermine bonds.

Deprived, any word on if you are going to proceed with relisting?

[Deprived]

Deprived, any word on if you are going to proceed with relisting?

It's my intention to relist, yes - but don't expect any immediate resolution of it.

I've nearly completed a pretty long message which will be sent to Bitfunder and Havelock - explaining the benefits to them of us relisting there and asking various questions that will allow me to determine which best fits our needs (only really relevant if both actually want us - neither may)

There are other options potentially available but those two possibilities are my focus for now.

The actual process of migration to either would be very simple (maybe moreso with Bitfunder as they already have procedures/tools in place from taking in GLBSE refugees).  Making sure we choose the best platform in terms of our needs (either in available functionality - or in scheduled future changes) is most important to me - but if it's close on those then the preference shown (so far) for Bitfunder would be the deciding factor.

One - or both - of them may not have interest in accepting DMS.  If both, then obviously closure comes back onto the table - but those two exchanges aren't QUITE the only options (Cryptostocks is NOT an option at all).

[FloatesMcgoates]

Is today's dividend still going down or

[vandinn]

It should be... it seems like somebody forgot about it though:((

[twentyseventy]

Deprived's hangover must be epic if he's not up at 430PM UTC

[Deprived]

Not a hangover - was out working and it took longer than expected (thought I'd be home about 2-3 hours back).  Dividends will go out shortly - SELLING orderbook will be reset as is usual.

[twentyseventy]

Just kidding <3

[Deprived]

All dividends are now scheduled for immediate payment.  Here's the report - very slightly higher SELLING dividend than I posted last night because I updated the Coinlenders CD value.  That CD matures tomorrow - at which point I'll withdraw it to my wallet and will then be able to start offering redemptions of 100% of (NAV/U - value of CIPHERMINE.B1) plus CIPHERMINE.B1 bonds for those who want to cash out immediately.

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,127.67689518
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
CIPHERMINE Bonds    360.61000000
Coinlenders CD 27/9    203.58231378
Just-Dice Balance    153.86146722
TOTAL ASSETS    1,936.44067618
   
Outstanding MINING   210981
Outstanding SELLING   210981
Outstanding PURCHASE   14397
Effective Units   225378
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   148,819,200
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00001690
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00084483
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00168966
365 days (Buyback)    0.00616724
405 days (IPO)    0.00684311
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.00675862
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.00692759
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,932.63256321
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.00857507
Days Dividend Post Div   507.50
SELLING Dividend    0.00181645
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,523.24518627
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.00675862

EDIT: Will unlock SELLING again once the dividends have gone through.

[Deprived]

All dividends went through fast.  Final balance matched what spreadsheet predicted to 4 decimal places so we're all good.  SELLING has been unlocked for trading again.

[alphaking]

When will you unlock PURCHASE?

[Rannasha]

When will you unlock PURCHASE?

Not until a new exchange has been found. Read the discussion over the last few pages.

[twentyseventy]

When will you unlock PURCHASE?

No more PURCHASE are being sold at the moment because of the BTC-TC closure.

[Deprived]

When will you unlock PURCHASE?

When I have a solid NAV/U at which I can sell and redeem them - meaning when we have the cash back from the Coinlenders CD (Hopefully tomorrow) and when we know with confidence what is happening with CIPHERMINE.B1.

It's possible it could be before we relocate - but I'm not really that keen on selling more PURCHASE until after a move (but would have to do so if I reopened it to do buybacks/allow trades - or other people would sell even higher to people who weren't paying attention).

[FloatesMcgoates]

If we don't plan on taking the ciphermine out, how do we ensure that our shares are transferred to wherever this security goes next? This activity has to be done by the October 7th deadline, right?

[ebruwifxnx]

Hey deprived, are you planning on collecting the addresses for those who own shares of what and paying dividends once btct goes offline? Or is everything halted until that point in time.

[HowlingMad]

If we don't plan on taking the ciphermine out, how do we ensure that our shares are transferred to wherever this security goes next? This activity has to be done by the October 7th deadline, right?

If I read the banner message from Burnside correctly, all trading will cease October 7th and the websites will go offline around the end of October.  So there are two-three weeks to get coins, etc. straightened out among all the players.

[Deprived]

If we don't plan on taking the ciphermine out, how do we ensure that our shares are transferred to wherever this security goes next? This activity has to be done by the October 7th deadline, right?

Transfer has until 30th October - though obviously sooner would be better.  From 7th-30th October (if we haven't moved by then) the shares would still be on BTC-TC and dividends could be paid there still.

Details of how to transfer can't be provided until I know for sure where we're going.  My hope is that an import can be done direct from the list of emails - as was done for securities that migrated to BTC-TC and Bitfunder from GLBSE.  The securities asking for usernames on Bitfunder etc are ones that already have a listing there - so are going to manually transfer shares in themself.