[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[odolvlobo]

What do people think about CB.IDIFF-O and the effect it might have on DMS.SELLING? They are very similar, but CB.IDIFF-O is simpler and DMS.SELLING doesn't reset every two months.

[ThickAsThieves]

What do people think about CB.IDIFF-O and the effect it might have on DMS.SELLING? They are very similar, but CB.IDIFF-O is simpler and DMS.SELLING doesn't reset every two months.

There's room for both. I think there's room for more too, just need to get creative with how they work.

[baloo_kiev]

Actually more of a gut-feeling then anything else. It just seems that with the current dividend payment schedule and the so far continously over-estimated ASIC delivery power for at least the next month or two (Avalon shipping late, BFL not shipping fast enough etc) I just don't see a perpetual 20% increase in short or long term. I think people tend to underestimate the downward force that diff increases apply to hash-power rollouts over time.

Imagine 250TH BFL + 250TH Avalon chips + 250TH Bitfury + 250TH KNC + 250TH AsicMiner (total about 5x diff) in 3 months + the rest and plans like AM's 1PH in next months. Now check http://bitcoinx.com/profit/

But you are certainly right in sense that in comparison to TAT.VIRTUALMINE, which is traded at 2.5BTC/GH, DMS.MINING is undervalued.

[Lohoris]

Actually more of a gut-feeling then anything else.

Put gut feelings into DMS and you'll give your money to someone else who used a spreadsheet

[odolvlobo]

Actually more of a gut-feeling then anything else.

Put gut feelings into DMS and you'll give your money to someone else who used a spreadsheet

Or, as I like to put it ... That gut feeling is probably nothing more than your breakfast.

[Lohoris]

Or, as I like to put it ... That gut feeling is probably nothing more than your breakfast.

rofl gg

[eltopo]

And, not to forget, SELLING yields a 1000 fuckin' % per year!!!!!111eleven 

[Lohoris]

And, not to forget, SELLING yields a 1000 fuckin' % per year!!!!!111eleven 

rofl

[ft73]

And, not to forget, SELLING yields a 1000 fuckin' % per year!!!!!111eleven 

A bit misleading, don't you think? 

[elefter]

And, not to forget, SELLING yields a 1000 fuckin' % per year!!!!!111eleven 

Now i know why Deprived made this! So he could produce this chart for us to enjoy! :D

[eltopo]

That's generated by BTCT. Deprived has nothing to do with the stats calculated by BTCT.

[Rannasha]

And, not to forget, SELLING yields a 1000 fuckin' % per year!!!!!111eleven 

In the meantime, MINING is showing 400% per year! No matter which one you pick, EVERYONE'S A WINNER!

[ft73]

And, not to forget, SELLING yields a 1000 fuckin' % per year!!!!!111eleven 

In the meantime, MINING is showing 400% per year! No matter which one you pick, EVERYONE'S A WINNER!

Ok i see trolling mode is on 

[Deprived]

A big jump in J-D profit today (plus continued strong buying of PURCHASE) mean the NAV/U has grown again today even after paying out dividends.

Sold   6390
Swapped   0
Total   6390
Price   0.02827
Total   180.6453
Less Fee   180.2840094
Man Fee   5.408520282

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    1,179.73128182
10164 LTC-ATF.B1    101.64000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    201.10983016
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.51624293
Just-Dice Balance    158.50000000
TOTAL ASSETS    1,742.49735491
   
Outstanding MINING   59107
Outstanding SELLING   59107
Outstanding PURCHASE   5348
Effective Units   64455
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   37,392,766
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00006725
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00336232
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00672465
365 days (Buyback)    0.02454497
405 days (IPO)    0.02723483
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.02689860
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02757106
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,738.16298185
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.02696708
Days Dividend Post Div   401.02
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,738.16298185
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.02696708
PURCHASE selling price    0.02832
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.02643
   
J-D House profit at report   3990

[baloo_kiev]

How do I redeem an M+S pair? Do they have to be sent to DeprivedMining?

[Rannasha]

How do I redeem an M+S pair? Do they have to be sent to DeprivedMining?

Yes.

[Progressive]

What about investing some more of the balance?
What is the minimal % of NAV that we need to keep in "cash" at BTC-TC?

Ukyo.Loan seems interesting - 18.25% (currently paying bonus +50% ~ 27.375%), maybe we could invest 10-20% NAV there.

Just-Dice is doing great, maybe we could raise our investment to 15% NAV (currently cca 9.1% NAV), the house profit is around 0.52%, in theory it should be 1%, but we should be careful with this due to the variance.

[Rannasha]

What about investing some more of the balance?
What is the minimal % of NAV that we need to keep in "cash" at BTC-TC?

Ukyo.Loan seems interesting - 18.25% (currently paying bonus +50% ~ 27.375%), maybe we could invest 10-20% NAV there.

Just-Dice is doing great, maybe we could raise our investment to 15% NAV (currently cca 9.1% NAV), the house profit is around 0.52%, in theory it should be 1%, but we should be careful with this due to the variance.

According to the contract on BTCT, at least 50 days of MINING dividends need to be held in cash. Currently, that's roughly 12.5% of NAV.

I (as holder of a small number of SELLING), would also favour additional investments, if sufficiently secure ones can be found.

[Deprived]

What about investing some more of the balance?
What is the minimal % of NAV that we need to keep in "cash" at BTC-TC?

Ukyo.Loan seems interesting - 18.25% (currently paying bonus +50% ~ 27.375%), maybe we could invest 10-20% NAV there.

Just-Dice is doing great, maybe we could raise our investment to 15% NAV (currently cca 9.1% NAV), the house profit is around 0.52%, in theory it should be 1%, but we should be careful with this due to the variance.

I'm reluctant to raise our investment in J-D as returns from that aren't guaranteed.  We fairly briefly went into the negative there ourselves - though we're now strongly back in the positive.

Ukyo.Loan is definitely a candidate - my concern with that is that when asked what backed the loans his answer was pretty much that the revenue from Bitfunder ensured he could pay the loans.  Problem is that a revenue stream only really backs servicing bonds not guaranteeing their face valuation - I like to see some evidence of liquid assets from anyone offering a bond that can be redeemed on request.

I'm fine with putting it up for a vote if there are more interested in it.

[Deprived]

What about investing some more of the balance?
What is the minimal % of NAV that we need to keep in "cash" at BTC-TC?

Ukyo.Loan seems interesting - 18.25% (currently paying bonus +50% ~ 27.375%), maybe we could invest 10-20% NAV there.

Just-Dice is doing great, maybe we could raise our investment to 15% NAV (currently cca 9.1% NAV), the house profit is around 0.52%, in theory it should be 1%, but we should be careful with this due to the variance.

According to the contract on BTCT, at least 50 days of MINING dividends need to be held in cash. Currently, that's roughly 12.5% of NAV.

I (as holder of a small number of SELLING), would also favour additional investments, if sufficiently secure ones can be found.

I have to be careful as manager to ensure we stay above that 50 days.  In practice that means keeping significantly more as cash to cover the next SELLING dividend and also to allow for significant MINING+SELLING redemptions.  With current likely high rises in difficulty that means I'm aiming to keep around 50% cash - so from my perspective I feel we could safely invest another 200-300 BTC without any cash-flow issues.