[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[Bonam]

Dang, my entire holding of MINING just sold at 0.008-0.009... why would someone buy it up so high?

Im pretty sure its that guy who had the bid wall of some 35,000 shares at .00385

Still doesn't make sense... he won't be able to sell most of the shares for anywhere close to what he bought em for, and they are never gonna return anything close to 0.01 in dividends. Oh well, after prices settle back down this little spike will have almost tripled my holdings...

[FloatesMcgoates]

Dang, my entire holding of MINING just sold at 0.008-0.009... why would someone buy it up so high?

Im pretty sure its that guy who had the bid wall of some 35,000 shares at .00385

Still doesn't make sense... he won't be able to sell most of the shares for anywhere close to what he bought em for, and they are never gonna return anything close to 0.01 in dividends. Oh well, after prices settle back down this little spike will have almost tripled my holdings...

In any case we both made money 

[Bonam]

Yep! I'll take it!

[cchan]

Well, someone is crazy? 

[Deprived]

Transfer bot had its first failure on a transfer overnight - someone sent in 46 PURCHASE and it only sent back 46 SELLING (no MINING).

That will happen occasionally - if BTC-TC gos down, my net connection drops or there's a lock error during the transfer.  If it happens to you drop me a PM - it's easy for me to verify and correct.  I'll always notice things like this anyway (I noticed this one quickly as number of MINING/SELLING outstanding didn't match) but in some cases won't pick up on errors until I produce my next report (when total outstanding units will no longer be what it should be allowing for sales/redemptions - telling me there's an error or missed transfer somewhere).

If you're the person who sent the 46 PURCHASE and only got SELLING sent back you now have your MINING as well.

EDIT:  Actually the error was yesterday evening before I went out (I didn't check after I got back from the pub other than to make sure bot was still running):

Update started at 23/08/2013 18:14:19
TX-IN: 46 x DMS.PURCHASE <- Redacted
ERROR: Transfer error. Could not get asset lock.
ERROR: Unknown error with request. Message: The operation has timed out

The transfer of MINING failed because it couldn't get a lock on the asset, the transfer of SELLING worked but timed out responding so bot thought that hadn't worked either (which is why the bot doesn't retry on fails - as sometimes a transaction reported as a fail actually gos through, so all failures are left for me to sort).

[BitThink]

My guess is somebody made a mistake by placing a 0.001 buy order at 0.01 instead. Otherwise, it does not make sence at all. With 0.01, even without difficulty increase, it takes 200 days to break even.

[Deprived]

My guess is somebody made a mistake by placing a 0.001 buy order at 0.01 instead. Otherwise, it does not make sence at all. With 0.01, even without difficulty increase, it takes 200 days to break even.

Pretty certain it wasn't a typo.  If you look at the history you'll see that the buys were done over quite a number of different orders - it wasn't one big order placed at once.

If there was a typo then it was when they did their calculations, not when they placed the orders.

[Rannasha]

My guess is somebody made a mistake by placing a 0.001 buy order at 0.01 instead. Otherwise, it does not make sence at all. With 0.01, even without difficulty increase, it takes 200 days to break even.

BTCT has an additional check if you place an order that is far away from the current best prices (so very high buy-orders or very low ask-orders). I ran into this once in the past when selling something for X when there were a few units in a bid at 4X, and a ton more at X.

Don't know precisely how quick this check appears, but I doubt that this purchase was accidental. Which leaves me to wonder why it happened (and why today was the day that I could sleep in and my wife woke up early to feed our kid, which caused me to miss this opportunity )

[BitThink]

My guess is somebody made a mistake by placing a 0.001 buy order at 0.01 instead. Otherwise, it does not make sence at all. With 0.01, even without difficulty increase, it takes 200 days to break even.

Pretty certain it wasn't a typo.  If you look at the history you'll see that the buys were done over quite a number of different orders - it wasn't one big order placed at once.

If there was a typo then it was when they did their calculations, not when they placed the orders.

Yes, you are right. Maybe just a rich new comer made a calculation error and did not have the patient to wait for cheap shares. After all, it was just around 40BTC, maybe not a big deal for some people.

But please forgive me and I am sorry to this unfortunate buyer if 40BTC means a lot to him, as it means to me. Although I missed this event and did not benefit anything from her/him.

[joele]

I wonder why nobody is buying SELLING cheap price at 0.016990?
If I'm not mistaken the PURCHASE after the difficulty adjustment is around 0.0169

edit: and tomorrow dividend for SELLING is around 24%

[Rannasha]

I wonder why nobody is buying SELLING cheap price at 0.016990?

Because I already bought some at 0.0161

If I'm not mistaken the PURCHASE after the difficulty adjustment is around 0.0169

Currently predicting 0.0163-0.0164 myself (the NAV/U that is, sell price will be +5%, buyback -2%).

[BitThink]

I wonder why nobody is buying SELLING cheap price at 0.016990?
If I'm not mistaken the PURCHASE after the difficulty adjustment is around 0.0169

edit: and tomorrow dividend for SELLING is around 24%

This dividend just means the refund of the deposit. Normally the price will drop as much as the dividend. Whether the price increases or not later is more important. Certainly, it will be another story if we decide to hold the fund until its closing.

[giantcrab]

I am confused why today the price of MINING is at high level, you know that today is the last day with current dividend, tomorrow the price of MINING will fall immediately as the dividend fall. why doesn't holders sell MINING out in time?

[joele]

I am confused why today the price of MINING is at high level, you know that today is the last day with current dividend, tomorrow the price of MINING will fall immediately as the dividend fall. why doesn't holders sell MINING out in time?

Probably some of the MINING holders doesn't know how this system works.

[Deprived]

Sold   6134
Swapped   0
Total   6134
Price   0.02052
Total   125.86968
Less Fee   125.6179406
Man Fee   3.768538219

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    2,257.31656981
9071 LTC-ATF.B1    90.71000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8   203.4669716
Coinlenders CD 12/9    100.74128683
Just-Dice Balance    244.60000000
TOTAL ASSETS    2,896.83482823
   
Outstanding MINING   140502
Outstanding SELLING   140502
Outstanding PURCHASE   7611
Effective Units   148113
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   50810339
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00004949
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00247443
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00494886
365 days (Buyback)    0.01806334
405 days (IPO)    0.02004288
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.01979544
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.02029033
   
NAV Post MINING Div    2,889.50492310
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.01950879
Days Dividend Post Div   394.21
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,889.50492310
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01950879
PURCHASE selling price    0.02048
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01912
   
J-D House profit at report   5651

-----------
BELOW HERE IS ESTIMATES FOR TOMORROW
-----------

Daily Dividend    0.00003824

SELLING Dividend    0.00417986
NAV Post SELLING Div    2,265.76197400
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.01529752
PURCHASE selling price    0.01606
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.01499

Those projections include tonight's LTC-ATF.B1 dividend and interest on coinlenders CDs.  Final values will vary slightly depending on how J-D performs and what sales/redemptions there are.

[tucenaber]

Block reward   25
Difficulty   50810339
Hashes per MINING   5000000

Now I'm confused. Why are you not using the current difficulty?

[guitarplinker]

Block reward   25
Difficulty   50810339
Hashes per MINING   5000000

Now I'm confused. Why are you not using the current difficulty?

This was from yesterday's amounts, like how much it would have been able to mine the past 24 hours, and the difficulty was at 50.8M 24 hours ago.

Tomorrow we'll see our dividends shrink, I'm wondering how that will affect the price because right now it's at a pretty decent high.

[tucenaber]

Thanks. I thought I had read the contract but turns out I had not

DIfficulty is the difficulty of mining BTC at the midnight prior to the dividend payment.

[twentyseventy]

I am confused why today the price of MINING is at high level, you know that today is the last day with current dividend, tomorrow the price of MINING will fall immediately as the dividend fall. why doesn't holders sell MINING out in time?

The price of MINING will not fall, but the value will. Your estimate of what MINING and SELLING's values are will determine what you think the price should be.

[Rannasha]

The big ask for PURCHASE is missing.