Long Term Channel

[afbitcoins]

Thought I'd share my latest thoughts on the long term channel with the speculation community.

Heres the long term channel I'm talking about, which is using all MtGox US$ data on a log scale



I'd say we are finding strong support at the top of that channel, will we stay above it?

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http://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/06/25/long-term-channel/

[1714907167]

1714907167

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

It's hard to tell whether it's the channel providing support or the (very) round number of $100 providing support. Fortunately, we'll either be up higher in a few weeks or we'll break down through the top of the channel and know it was the round number support instead.

[afbitcoins]

I reckon strong support from channel AND the round number of $100. double support.

[rebuilder]

What makes that channel more valid than, say, either of these?:

[RyNinDaCleM]

What makes that channel more valid than, say, either of these?:

The op's channel has been tested on the lower limit 4 times making for some strong support while the upper limit is an arbitrary parallel line that incorporates most price data. In many cases, a trend line will be broken on the 4th test. It was not! So IF the price drops to it again, it might break below it
In an uptrend, the lower line is the base line for the channel while the upper is likely not known yet. His Upper *seems* to be correct (at least for the time being) because the price is holding above it currently and we bounced down off of it at $7.22.
 

[afbitcoins]

Unfortunately I can't see the other images in the reply as my works filter has blocked them for some reason, will have another look this evening at home.

RyNinDaCleM has done a good job explaining why i think that is the long term channel though. Its really just as simple as thats where we keep finding support and resistance.  If that channel lasts a few more years we'll be seeing much higher bitcoin prices by then, I estimate the channel increases by 10 times every 16 months!

[afbitcoins]

Hi rebuilder managed to take a look at your charts finally. Very interesting, I don't necessarily think my channel is more valid than your alternatives. Just hows how open to interpretation it all is. Like staring at inkblots or something.

The chart I offered works pretty well for me though and since I started following that channel it has helped me make some decent predictions eg when we broke out the top of the channel I called the price to  'shoot to the moon' which it pretty much did, although didn't get quite as high as I hoped it would. If we break back down into that channel I'm expecting a slow meander until we encounter the bottom trendline which is another prediction, but only if we break through that support at the top line first.

[N12]

This channel will be broken in the next days.

[MAbtc]

This channel will be broken in the next days.

Do you see a flash crash or a long slow slide with bull traps along the way? 

[N12]

I'd bet on a long slow slide.

[afbitcoins]

I reckon price could almost stay flat until it meets the bottom of the channel, bit like this

[PYaEe]

seems realistic. But i want cheaper coins first)

[smoothie]

I reckon price could almost stay flat until it meets the bottom of the channel, bit like this

Possible...very possible.

Expect market surprises.

[samson]

I reckon price could almost stay flat until it meets the bottom of the channel, bit like this

Possible...very possible.

Expect market surprises.

Of course it could just as easily go the other way...