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Question: Bitcoin had 4 bubbles. Is this the 5th?
Yes - 14 (43.8%)
No - 18 (56.3%)
Total Voters: 32

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Author Topic: Bubble or Not?  (Read 2238 times)
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October 24, 2017, 04:32:21 PM
 #1

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

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October 24, 2017, 04:34:27 PM
 #2

Bubble or not , the tech will remain. But yea , it's posible that we are already on the bubble from a while so the next coming weeks/months will be very important for the crypto space.

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October 24, 2017, 04:39:29 PM
 #3

I think bitcoin is in the bubble mode...correction at $5000 will be seen soon...

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October 24, 2017, 04:44:21 PM
 #4

Bubble or not , the tech will remain. But yea , it's posible that we are already on the bubble from a while so the next coming weeks/months will be very important for the crypto space.

Like 2013 dump this time we will not see I think because there are huge number of adoption and demand for bitcoin in upcoming days so we will find bump only in the upcoming. What damin critics the bitcoin but he also bought the bitcoin in huge amount dude.
If we hold the give better demand by reducing the bitcoin supply in the market we will find the better rate all the time dude.

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October 24, 2017, 04:49:49 PM
 #5

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?


Enough of this bubble thoughts. Just let different people speaks on their own without bothering us.

Bitcoin gorwth is not a joke. Bitcoin current status was mainly because of the community that supports it. A bubble can be popped out easily that's why I don't consider any bubble thing in bitcin. The bitcoin's atmosphere is thick than it can filters out the dangerous rays came from the FUD.

But on the other hand, Im agree to his last statement "DONT INVEST IN THINGS YOU DONT UNDERSTAND". So for newcomers that want to invest in bitcoin, learn all the risks associated when you invest rather than just expect a big price increase.

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October 24, 2017, 04:50:27 PM
 #6

I think bitcoin is in the bubble mode...correction at $5000 will be seen soon...

Correction at $5000 does not means it is a bubble, correction it is natural when big pumps happen.

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October 24, 2017, 04:52:35 PM
 #7

yes or no are both wrong answers.
when it comes to bubbles, the definition is to vague that you can not call something a bubble until it bursts and some times passes from its bursting. otherwise you will not know. there are too many things about characteristics of a bubble that makes it so.

who is to say the intrinsic value of bitcoin is not $7000 and we are lower than it?

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October 24, 2017, 04:52:51 PM
 #8

99% sure Bitcoin is experiencing a bubble right now. Rise of value goes too fast to be stable and I assume we'll see a massive sell-off within weeks. But then again, I assumed a month ago we wouldn't see a new ATH after the last ATH on september the 2nd, and here we are ... If there's a sell-off around the corner, it probably won't be as severe as we've seen after the peak in november/december 2013. Things were made worse back then due to the hack on MtGox, one of the very few existing exchanges in that time.
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October 24, 2017, 04:54:20 PM
 #9

i cant vote but i say defently no !!
trust in bitcoin



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October 24, 2017, 05:00:49 PM
 #10

I don't think that we are in the bubble, this has been said for so many times just like the thoughts of bitcoin is dead / bitcoin will be dead very soon. If we are in the bubble then the price seems to be good and it may pop very soon so whether we are in a bubble or not we really can't tell it. The future can tell us if it is really on a bubble, if it is then the price will be correcting very soon but as long as we are seeing it on the good price then it's a good experience right?

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October 25, 2017, 12:33:01 AM
 #11

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

Even if the price is higher than it should be, so what? All stocks at some point become overvalued, bitcoin suffers more volatility because it is not a stock but a currency, the most important thing is to know that the technology is real, it works and it is not just a speculative instrument like the famous pets.com on the dot com bubble, bitcoin is the real thing and it will become even bigger in the future.

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October 25, 2017, 12:42:48 PM
 #12

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

Even if the price is higher than it should be, so what? All stocks at some point become overvalued, bitcoin suffers more volatility because it is not a stock but a currency, the most important thing is to know that the technology is real, it works and it is not just a speculative instrument like the famous pets.com on the dot com bubble, bitcoin is the real thing and it will become even bigger in the future.
What do you means of bubble or not of bitcoin, as we all know bitcoin is now whenever in which position but this is only due to the support of people not its form of bubble or not. Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency which is unable to stop in growth and will be more popular with the time and I know one day the bitcoin will get its main position if future.

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October 25, 2017, 12:43:36 PM
 #13

I don't think that we are in the bubble, this has been said for so many times just like the thoughts of bitcoin is dead / bitcoin will be dead very soon. If we are in the bubble then the price seems to be good and it may pop very soon so whether we are in a bubble or not we really can't tell it. The future can tell us if it is really on a bubble, if it is then the price will be correcting very soon but as long as we are seeing it on the good price then it's a good experience right?
I really don’t know what people saying about bitcoin form that its now bubble or not but according to its it can be bubble ad also can not because the thing we know about bitcoin is that the digital currency and which is popular just only because of the support of people not anything else because if there was no one to invest in bitcoin is past then bitcoin will not present in front of us.

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October 25, 2017, 12:59:54 PM
 #14

Bitcoin is strange because it seems like it is always in a bubble but then it also seems to always recover so rapidly once the bubble is burst, there is ever growing support for bitcoin and I think the crashes in future will be less significant and less often.

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October 25, 2017, 01:07:18 PM
 #15

there're a lot of people saying such a thing for past few years,
bubble or not,i do not what is the answer but for me it was not.
if it's the bubble,how can it recover from last correction ? bubble mean when it burst the price will remain low and slowly it will lose its value.
but right now i do not thing that way,
indeed we saw a lot of correction,but it's a healthy correction in my opinion and the price always recovering back to its peak and steadily increasing.
i do not really care about what other people say about Bitcoin,
it's just matter of time when everything is concluded and how it will turn to.

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October 25, 2017, 01:27:34 PM
 #16

there're a lot of people saying such a thing for past few years,
bubble or not,i do not what is the answer but for me it was not.
if it's the bubble,how can it recover from last correction ? bubble mean when it burst the price will remain low and slowly it will lose its value.
but right now i do not thing that way,
indeed we saw a lot of correction,but it's a healthy correction in my opinion and the price always recovering back to its peak and steadily increasing.
i do not really care about what other people say about Bitcoin,
it's just matter of time when everything is concluded and how it will turn to.


Agreed, bitcoin shows that it has enough potential and come across so many tough challenge. If it were bubble then we might not see the the recovery in price each time. But the altcoin price was bubbled and it fall so much down .

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October 25, 2017, 01:51:16 PM
 #17

For me, a drop/dip of 50% of bitcoin price is not a bubble anymore, it's just an event in the bitcoin life...


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October 25, 2017, 02:00:42 PM
 #18

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

For now I can't say what is the real right answer after all, bitcoin is too resilient ad of the moment to be called a bubble. At the same time no one can determine a well set upped bubble until it burst so I think at least for now that btc price might be a bubble that got so resilient because of something that is temporarily keeping the bubble whole. If it really is a bubble, we will now it in the next coming month. If bitcoin proves to still be standing on the price ranges it has now, it ain't a bubble. If it goes back to a low price by December then btc is just a bubble.

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October 25, 2017, 02:16:18 PM
 #19

Why in December? Why not in January or March? The majority of people who comment on these threads do not enjoy any documentary evidence. They sagely expressed their assumptions. No one knows the exact date of when the bubble will burst. Now bitcoin is very similar to bubble but if the speculators leave the market, bitcoin will have a good chance at life. In this course, the price will drop.
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October 25, 2017, 02:44:38 PM
 #20

There is no such a thing as a fifth bubble. If we have to believe the general public, Bitcoin's entire existence is one big bubble. People should understand that even a tiny bit of increased adoption, can get the price to double/tripple in value, which is exactly what happened. Does that mean the current price is fair, or justified for the time we're in? Nope. But the factor playing an important role when it comes to a market being overbought/oversold, is the speculation aspect. From the very beginning the speculation aspect was an important factor, and this will likely never change. From my perspective, speculation makes up like 25% of the current market rate, which means that at current levels, that accounts for $1400 in pure speculation premium.

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October 25, 2017, 04:19:48 PM
 #21

In the 2013 bubble we went from $200 to $1000.

This time we've gone from $1000 in january to $6000 - so a much BIGGER move. On that basis, yes it's a bit of a bubble, it's risen faster than adoption, and will fall back. Take some profits people.

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October 25, 2017, 04:31:17 PM
 #22

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?
A big NO for this.

He is Neurologist by profession and writing books on investments  Roll Eyes
Also he is suggesting others to remain away from cryptos if you are not blockchain expert, this makes no sense. If he can write about investment despite being Neurologist by profession than every common person can buy and hold bitcoin/cryptos.  Grin

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October 25, 2017, 04:33:37 PM
 #23

I think we may be at the verge to a new bubble, but I honestly doubt we're already in one. While I didn't expect BTC to grow this large in such a stable manner this year, it still doesn't feel quite "bubbly" for lack of a better word.

But even if we're in a bubble right now... I'm fairly positive that BTC will be able to recover again sooner or later. With each "death" the chance of BTC utterly failing got smaller and every "attack" only made it stronger. I have no reason to believe that this will change any time soon.


In the 2013 bubble we went from $200 to $1000.

This time we've gone from $1000 in january to $6000 - so a much BIGGER move. On that basis, yes it's a bit of a bubble, it's risen faster than adoption, and will fall back. Take some profits people.

You need to take timeframes into account. The move from USD 200,- to USD 1100,- took place within a single month. The move from USD 1000,- to USD 6000,- took close to a year. That's not quite as drastic.

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October 25, 2017, 04:38:49 PM
 #24


we can not avoid the fact that bitcoin has grown rapidly.
whether there will be a bubble for this unusual growth, as long as the community remains supportive and the market trend is moving positively. I do not think there's anything to worry about. and the debate over it is just a soap opera that has no meaning.

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October 25, 2017, 04:48:59 PM
 #25

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

Even if the price is higher than it should be, so what? All stocks at some point become overvalued, bitcoin suffers more volatility because it is not a stock but a currency, the most important thing is to know that the technology is real, it works and it is not just a speculative instrument like the famous pets.com on the dot com bubble, bitcoin is the real thing and it will become even bigger in the future.
Bubble or not it is still too expensive because of the those forks that keep on coming every now and then. Some of us might be smiling because they were too lucky that they came this far by holding their bitcoin before. Some of them too are lucky enough who can afford to buy with no worries while investing for a long term in bitcoin. If they ever came to face those bubbles before, did they panic selling too? Or they just keep their pace calm and wait until this catastrophe ends.

If they already know what it's like, i wonder if how'd they manage to control their feelings. So far i can't feel the bubble yet it's just lurking around waiting for us to get our hopes up then attack us down in the last minute.

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October 25, 2017, 05:36:18 PM
 #26

It seems to me that bitcoin is a bubble. He forces the wealthy to share their money. Let's be honest. How many people on this forum who buy bitcoin for cash? I am sure that such people are very few. Rich people can afford to buy thousands of coins. Not only do they now earn a huge income but can now explain the origins of their capital. When the bubble bursts they will lose money but their capital will be permanently legalized. We can touch this cake, but many of us will lose money when the bubble will burst if they just hold their coins.
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October 25, 2017, 05:54:22 PM
 #27

It seems to me that bitcoin is a bubble. He forces the wealthy to share their money. Let's be honest. How many people on this forum who buy bitcoin for cash? I am sure that such people are very few. Rich people can afford to buy thousands of coins. Not only do they now earn a huge income but can now explain the origins of their capital. When the bubble bursts they will lose money but their capital will be permanently legalized. We can touch this cake, but many of us will lose money when the bubble will burst if they just hold their coins.
Temporary bursts like always, This is an old story from people, Every time price drops and they lose money we have the same story. They never see the price increased from $2000 and reached $6000 in a very very short time period. In every country you just have %20 annually, Governments have 40% increase using all available resources, Nothing could have %300 profit for you in less than 7 month with $1/$3B daily volume.


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October 25, 2017, 06:09:34 PM
 #28

I dont think bitcoin was ever in a bubble. It is the future of currencies and will have a much bigger value in the future. Its still in the correction phase and people are not ye completely supportive.

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October 25, 2017, 06:19:09 PM
 #29

Currently it's adoption, not a bubble. It's getting annoying when people constantly refer to bubbles when they completely discard the growth in adoption we went through this year. Japan and South Korea are madly contributing to this growth, from where Japan is somewhat of the engine that powers everything right now. On top of that, more average people are investing in crypto than ever before, and that on a global level. The only time where I agree with people using the term bubble, was when we broke through the $1000 level in 2013, and that's really it. It touched $1200, where after that the entire market got dumped down all the way till under the $200 level.

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October 25, 2017, 06:30:31 PM
 #30

Only less than 1% of world population know about bitcoin and you are saying it is in bubble? There will be nothing to surprise even if bitcoin's total marketcap will hit over 1 trillion $ in next few years.

I am quite optimistic over whole crypto thing specially with bitcoin, demand for bitcoin is increasing in almost every part of the world.

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October 25, 2017, 06:30:55 PM
 #31

Who even coined the term 'fifth bubble'? There is nothing like first, second... and obviously, fifth bubble. There is only continuous growth.
Bitcoin is game-changing concept new era of the economy - an idea worthy of Nobel Prize - how you can even call it a bubble?
BTC is still undervalued by far, we have 6 billion people in the world and only 21 million of Bitcoins - do you still that $6k per BTC is a 'high price'?
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October 25, 2017, 06:32:23 PM
 #32

I think that the bitcoin bubble. Fiat is devalued when the currency is not used in the state's economy. The government is constantly thrown into circulation unsecured money. Question secured than bitcoin? The price for it is growing constantly, but no one is interested in why this is happening. I think it is a trap. I sincerely don't want to I was right, but I don't find a logical explanation for this phenomenon.

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October 26, 2017, 12:23:18 PM
 #33

I don't think that we are in the bubble, this has been said for so many times just like the thoughts of bitcoin is dead / bitcoin will be dead very soon. If we are in the bubble then the price seems to be good and it may pop very soon so whether we are in a bubble or not we really can't tell it. The future can tell us if it is really on a bubble, if it is then the price will be correcting very soon but as long as we are seeing it on the good price then it's a good experience right?
I really don’t know what people saying about bitcoin form that its now bubble or not but according to its it can be bubble ad also can not because the thing we know about bitcoin is that the digital currency and which is popular just only because of the support of people not anything else because if there was no one to invest in bitcoin is past then bitcoin will not present in front of us.

They are just making themselves look like a professional or what we call shills. They just want something with their own interest and makes new investors to force sell their bitcoins so that they can take the advantage of buying it at dip. This happened for so many times in the bitcoin history though I'm not that old in bitcoin but basing on old articles, many did said that bitcoin is a bubble, bitcoin is dead or will probably dead and forgotten. They are all fuds.

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October 26, 2017, 01:56:51 PM
 #34

I think that the bitcoin bubble. Fiat is devalued when the currency is not used in the state's economy. The government is constantly thrown into circulation unsecured money. Question secured than bitcoin? The price for it is growing constantly, but no one is interested in why this is happening. I think it is a trap. I sincerely don't want to I was right, but I don't find a logical explanation for this phenomenon.
While I agree that we may be in bubble territory, I disagree that no one is interested in why the price keeps increasing.  There are multiple hypotheses.  Personally, I think that some of it is probably coming from an increase in adoption as a currency, but I think that most of it is coming from an increase in adoption as an investment asset.  As the price keeps rising, and as it becomes increasingly accessible to potential investors, more people keep buying in, which increases the price.


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October 26, 2017, 02:02:53 PM
 #35

In the 2013 bubble we went from $200 to $1000.

This time we've gone from $1000 in january to $6000 - so a much BIGGER move. On that basis, yes it's a bit of a bubble, it's risen faster than adoption, and will fall back. Take some profits people.

I don't think the two are comparable. There's a lot more demand and interest now. It's also more stable that it's been in the past. I think we will see another crash, in the same way we have done a few times this year, but I don't think that's a 'bubble', it's not like the dot com bubble...it'll be a correction.

It's so difficult to tell when is the best time to sell up, but I'd say it's definitely not in the build up to another fork. December might see some dumping.

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October 26, 2017, 02:17:17 PM
 #36

Who even coined the term 'fifth bubble'? There is nothing like first, second... and obviously, fifth bubble. There is only continuous growth.
Bitcoin is game-changing concept new era of the economy - an idea worthy of Nobel Prize - how you can even call it a bubble?
BTC is still undervalued by far, we have 6 billion people in the world and only 21 million of Bitcoins - do you still that $6k per BTC is a 'high price'?
So in 2011 when bitcoin spiked from $0.80 to ~$32.00 and then fell 94% back to $2.00, that wasn't a bubble?  Growth has not been continuous at all.  There have been several major crashes of more than 70%.  It could easily fall below $2k right now and still be behaving in accordance with historical norms.  That doesn't mean that it won't continue higher, but it could easily be in bubble territory right now.


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October 26, 2017, 05:58:49 PM
 #37

Probably not this time. At least not yet. The reason Bitcoin is heavily pumping is the increased adoption by mainstream tech giants and investors. The last few times it was purely driven by speculation, which makes it different from this time.

Nobody really knows what will happen for sure though.

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October 26, 2017, 06:01:35 PM
 #38

btc underperformed % wise compared to a lot of previous years
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October 26, 2017, 07:44:39 PM
 #39

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

Bitcoin isn't in a bubble.I don't understand why most of the people create a thread like this whenever bitcoin passes ATH.This isn't like 2013.Things were different back then.Currently bitcoin price is backed by many companies,people and also widely accepted.A healthy correction is always welcomed.Bubble is when we see more then 50% decline in short period of time but i haven't seen that with bitcoin.  Smiley

What do you mean by this?  How is the price of bitcoin being backed by companies?  It sounds to me like you're saying that if bitcoin started to tank, there are companies/people who would step in and keep it from crashing hard.  While there would of course be some buyers, if it really starts to fall fast, it could go a long way down before it bounces.


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October 26, 2017, 09:42:04 PM
 #40

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?


They might call it as a bubble, most probably because of the speedy rising in prices, in January it was just $900 and now it hit $6000 few days ago 650% in just 9 months. No one would really believe it. But what I can say it is because of the rising demand for the coin, many people see its use and wants to have a piece of the coin plus the definite number of supply in circulation. Every one who understands economics will know the reason why the price go higher and higher.

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October 26, 2017, 09:47:25 PM
 #41

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?


They might call it as a bubble, most probably because of the speedy rising in prices, in January it was just $900 and now it hit $6000 few days ago 650% in just 9 months. No one would really believe it. But what I can say it is because of the rising demand for the coin, many people see its use and wants to have a piece of the coin plus the definite number of supply in circulation. Every one who understands economics will know the reason why the price go higher and higher.
in fact, you are right, But for newcomers to the crypto-currency sphere it will be very difficult to determine all these situations that occur in the pricing of Bitcoin. I think that today the video growth indicator of the Crypto currency is very good, but only for Bitcoin, because almost half of the altcoin goes down.

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October 26, 2017, 10:30:32 PM
 #42

Bitcoin isn't in a bubble.I don't understand why most of the people create a thread like this whenever bitcoin passes ATH.This isn't like 2013.Things were different back then.Currently bitcoin price is backed by many companies,people and also widely accepted.A healthy correction is always welcomed.Bubble is when we see more then 50% decline in short period of time but i haven't seen that with bitcoin.  Smiley
If that's how you look at whether or not bitcoin is in a bubble, that's fine.  But the definition of a bubble is when people are paying a lot more for something than it's actually worth.  The problem is that there's no good way to figure out what a bitcoin is actually (i.e., should be) worth.  If you could nail that down, then you could say for sure whether or not we're in a bubble.


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October 26, 2017, 11:13:54 PM
 #43

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?


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October 26, 2017, 11:19:20 PM
 #44

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?
Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.

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October 26, 2017, 11:37:53 PM
 #45

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?
But i do not think that bitcoin is  bubble. to me i think bitcoin is trading in its origion price and the price increase is due to the interest of the people , therefore i do not think that bitcoin is a bubble.
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October 27, 2017, 12:18:30 AM
 #46

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?
Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.
I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity).  There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth.  Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin.  In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10.


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malikusama
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October 27, 2017, 09:37:08 AM
 #47

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?

May be it could be a 5th one, my point of view was completely different before this but now after seeing this continuous rise it seems like an alarm.
But if we consider it a bubble what would be the price after the sudden downfall? I think it will not going to cross below $5000 or $4800.
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October 27, 2017, 10:04:55 AM
 #48

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?
Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.
I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity).  There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth.  Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin.  In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10.
That's the case with any denominator though.
Even if you take Gold and reintroduce it as a currency, nobody will be able to tell you what that piece of Gold should be worth. Because there is no such value. The value always strictly depends on two trading parties coming to an agreement.

As such, it makes literally no difference whether we decide to all collectively use Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin as our standard currency. The amount of goods traded will adjust accoding to the supply and demand of currency vs goods.
Bitcoin is by far the most convenient and efficient solution though, and more sophisticated cryptos will be even more so.

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October 27, 2017, 10:28:41 AM
 #49

Bitcoin sometimes satisfy your own satisfaction. Bitcoin help many people to have their own money.
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October 27, 2017, 12:38:28 PM
 #50

Bubble or not , the tech will remain. But yea , it's posible that we are already on the bubble from a while so the next coming weeks/months will be very important for the crypto space.
this same question has been asked since first time BTC had an significant rise in price, and it is still asked every time BTC rises with an amount people didn't expect it to. It's pretty obvious that BTC is an bubble to some extent, if people suddenly lose interest in BTC it will burst, but now right now.

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October 27, 2017, 12:40:59 PM
 #51

Bubble or not , the tech will remain. But yea , it's posible that we are already on the bubble from a while so the next coming weeks/months will be very important for the crypto space.
this same question has been asked since first time BTC had an significant rise in price, and it is still asked every time BTC rises with an amount people didn't expect it to. It's pretty obvious that BTC is an bubble to some extent, if people suddenly lose interest in BTC it will burst, but now right now.
If people lost interest it would deflate. A bubble would mean that an asset rose to more than its value. But Bitcoin doesn't really have an upper limit on its value, especially not with altcoins becoming the new go-to for capital raising. So there really is no bubble to burst.
The only thing that can happen at this point is another blockchain taking over, which is unlikely to happen anytime soon.

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October 27, 2017, 12:42:48 PM
 #52

Bitcoin to me does not seem like a bubble but perhaps we are all biased because a large portion of the people in this forum are firm believers in bitcoin. The ones we need to be concerned about are the people who invest with little or no knowledge of bitcoin and expect a smooth ride to the top, they are the ones who will get nervous at any negative signs and could cause a crash in the price. As long as there are more of us believers and less of them then we should be fine.

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October 27, 2017, 01:02:42 PM
 #53

In my opinion, perception in bitcoin depends on the investor itself. If you are a somewhat conservative kind of investor, you may see it negatively but, if you are aiming for long term and an aggressive kind of investor, bubble or not, it won't matter. Somehow, I realized that news like; bitcoin is a bubble, someone badmouthing bitcoin, and other negative news, they all come out when there is bloodbath in the market, causing FUD giving opportunity to buy bitcoin at a lower price.
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October 27, 2017, 05:23:17 PM
 #54

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?
Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.
I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity).  There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth.  Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin.  In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10.
That's the case with any denominator though.
Even if you take Gold and reintroduce it as a currency, nobody will be able to tell you what that piece of Gold should be worth. Because there is no such value. The value always strictly depends on two trading parties coming to an agreement.

As such, it makes literally no difference whether we decide to all collectively use Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin as our standard currency. The amount of goods traded will adjust accoding to the supply and demand of currency vs goods.
Bitcoin is by far the most convenient and efficient solution though, and more sophisticated cryptos will be even more so.

Ok, so this is kind of tricky, but I think we actually agree somewhat.  The benefit of using a gold-backed currency (or gold itself) is that the supply is tangible, limited, and cannot be changed easily.  In essence, your country's supply of gold represents the value/worth of your country's economy.  If you have 1000 oz of gold, then each ounce represents 1/1000 of your country's economic output/worth/wealth.  If your economy grows (increases in productivity and wealth), each ounce of gold is worth more, and vice-versa.

The problem with fiat currency, of course, is that a government can increase the supply at will, which devalues it.

Bitcoin is not tangible, but it does have the advantage of limited supply, and actually its even better than gold in that the supply is completely fixed (assuming that enough people don't decide to increase the cap, which hopefully will never happen).  So I think that bitcoin could work just as well as gold as a currency, but the problem is that right now it doesn't.  As a currency, it just sits next to all other currencies.  It isn't backed by a particular economic system (like a country, state, etc.) that includes well-defined/well-known production or services of some sort, so it's not really possible to figure out how much it should be worth.


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October 27, 2017, 05:31:56 PM
 #55

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?
Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.
I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity).  There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth.  Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin.  In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10.
That's the case with any denominator though.
Even if you take Gold and reintroduce it as a currency, nobody will be able to tell you what that piece of Gold should be worth. Because there is no such value. The value always strictly depends on two trading parties coming to an agreement.

As such, it makes literally no difference whether we decide to all collectively use Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin as our standard currency. The amount of goods traded will adjust accoding to the supply and demand of currency vs goods.
Bitcoin is by far the most convenient and efficient solution though, and more sophisticated cryptos will be even more so.

Ok, so this is kind of tricky, but I think we actually agree somewhat.  The benefit of using a gold-backed currency (or gold itself) is that the supply is tangible, limited, and cannot be changed easily.  In essence, your country's supply of gold represents the value/worth of your country's economy.  If you have 1000 oz of gold, then each ounce represents 1/1000 of your country's economic output/worth/wealth.  If your economy grows (increases in productivity and wealth), each ounce of gold is worth more, and vice-versa.

The problem with fiat currency, of course, is that a government can increase the supply at will, which devalues it.

Bitcoin is not tangible, but it does have the advantage of limited supply, and actually its even better than gold in that the supply is completely fixed (assuming that enough people don't decide to increase the cap, which hopefully will never happen).  So I think that bitcoin could work just as well as gold as a currency, but the problem is that right now it doesn't.  As a currency, it just sits next to all other currencies.  It isn't backed by a particular economic system (like a country, state, etc.) that includes well-defined/well-known production or services of some sort, so it's not really possible to figure out how much it should be worth.
Most of that is spot on. The only point that is still questionable is the idea of "how much anything should be worth". Even when you have a currency "backed up by a country's productivity", both can arbitrarily be decided to define each other. But each on its own has no inherent value whatsoever. Which is why even gold is inherently worthless. The only reason people can't think of Gold as worthless is because a lot of people have decided that it's not. The same is happening with Bitcoin. Even if it has no inherent value, that doesn't matter because nothing in this world does. As long as the quantity is limited and the item can be moved around easily in portions it can be used as a currency. But again, no matter what item you choose, it is worthless on its own.

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October 27, 2017, 08:00:54 PM
 #56

Bitcoin to me does not seem like a bubble but perhaps we are all biased because a large portion of the people in this forum are firm believers in bitcoin. The ones we need to be concerned about are the people who invest with little or no knowledge of bitcoin and expect a smooth ride to the top, they are the ones who will get nervous at any negative signs and could cause a crash in the price. As long as there are more of us believers and less of them then we should be fine.

You need all sorts of people in a market, to give it liquidity. If everybody was a long-term holder, the market cap would have only gradually risen. The hot money flowing through Bitcoin is what causes this volatility. It might result in a bubble, but this is a feature of every asset class.


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October 27, 2017, 08:02:34 PM
 #57

bubble huge bubble  near like a gold bubble ..
there is only external forces must be so weak that they can not afford such power.
bad news is everywhere. a big balloon: D yes but full

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October 27, 2017, 08:36:51 PM
 #58

Two months ago he always needed corrections (At least 50 percent ) And now we see bitcoin price all time high . We know the price will rise but gradually , Bitcoin changed lot ; I do not know bitcoin became strong? Or just a bubble?



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October 27, 2017, 08:41:51 PM
 #59

Two months ago he always needed corrections (At least 50 percent ) And now we see bitcoin price all time high . We know the price will rise but gradually , Bitcoin changed lot ; I do not know bitcoin became strong? Or just a bubble?
It's becoming widely adopted by a lot of people in many countries. Bitcoin is making it to the mainstream news every other day now, so the situation is quite different from what it used to be.

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October 27, 2017, 08:47:41 PM
 #60

I mean, there are a lot of real adoption happening here and that's undeniable. For example Japan and Australia have both "legalized" bitcoin and removed the double taxing that came with bitcoin's purchase and that was a huge step in the right direction.

Still though, price has risen around 15 fold in the span of 1 and a half years.

Definitely close to a bubble and i think correction may come soon to bring down price to around $5000.

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October 27, 2017, 09:58:46 PM
 #61

Bitcoin sometimes satisfy your own satisfaction. Bitcoin help many people to have their own money.

Yes, bitcoin helps a lot for me. Previously, my life was extremely miserable, however, since I knew bitcoin, I was able to make a lot of money and improve my life. My life is like a dream.

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October 27, 2017, 10:07:38 PM
 #62

Bitcoin sometimes satisfy your own satisfaction. Bitcoin help many people to have their own money.

Yes, bitcoin helps a lot for me. Previously, my life was extremely miserable, however, since I knew bitcoin, I was able to make a lot of money and improve my life. My life is like a dream.
Increase in bitcoin prices today is very helpful to us earn much better income. Compared to the time when bitcoin prices have only low rates. Currently the price has exceeded 6000 $ and this has automatically increased our income.


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October 27, 2017, 11:31:08 PM
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Of course this is not a bubble. We can not compare the current behavior of bitcoin with its early stages because today it is based in a more mature ecosystem and there is a greater knowledge and acceptance of bitcoin, which gives it a greater sustainability and maturity. There may be important corrections, but we will never see the terrible scenarios of previous years again.

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October 28, 2017, 12:19:06 AM
 #64

Two months ago he always needed corrections (At least 50 percent ) And now we see bitcoin price all time high . We know the price will rise but gradually , Bitcoin changed lot ; I do not know bitcoin became strong? Or just a bubble?

It's indeed a strong currency and not just a bubble. Bitcoin already prove itself in the market how big it is and how far will it go and day by day we experiencing some small correction but not a downfall. Breaking its $6000 barrier is a good indication that bitcoin will not be contented in its place but rather will rise more.

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October 28, 2017, 10:15:12 AM
 #65

Of course this is not a bubble. We can not compare the current behavior of bitcoin with its early stages because today it is based in a more mature ecosystem and there is a greater knowledge and acceptance of bitcoin, which gives it a greater sustainability and maturity. There may be important corrections, but we will never see the terrible scenarios of previous years again.
Circumstances might be different from the past because there is a lot of changes now but what if there is someone in power manipulating bitcoin's price and is doing deals behind the curtains? If that is the case, it will be a really fatal blow to suddenly dump bitcoin when adoption rate is growing rapidly like what we see now. For this reason, I conclude that bitcoin right now might be a bubble. Circumstances might be different but I am doubting adoption rate because growth is happening too fast which is not proportional to each other.
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October 28, 2017, 12:16:42 PM
 #66

Of course this is not a bubble. We can not compare the current behavior of bitcoin with its early stages because today it is based in a more mature ecosystem and there is a greater knowledge and acceptance of bitcoin, which gives it a greater sustainability and maturity. There may be important corrections, but we will never see the terrible scenarios of previous years again.
Circumstances might be different from the past because there is a lot of changes now but what if there is someone in power manipulating bitcoin's price and is doing deals behind the curtains? If that is the case, it will be a really fatal blow to suddenly dump bitcoin when adoption rate is growing rapidly like what we see now. For this reason, I conclude that bitcoin right now might be a bubble. Circumstances might be different but I am doubting adoption rate because growth is happening too fast which is not proportional to each other.
Adoption rate is not "too fast" at all. It's very much in line with the exponential adoption rates of any disruptive technology.

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October 28, 2017, 12:37:56 PM
 #67

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

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October 28, 2017, 12:40:06 PM
 #68

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.

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October 28, 2017, 01:41:18 PM
 #69

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.
You'll never know everything is so unexpected so we better expect the unexpected. The less you expect is the more it will happen so we better get ready everyday whatever will gonna happen.

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October 28, 2017, 02:01:10 PM
 #70

It might be a bubble if we see it from the point of view that is not backed by real value. People are putting too much money in something that is not real appart from the internet...

HOWEVER we can look at it from a different point of view. Money is just money because people agree that it represents value. Same with Bitcoin. Where does Bitcoin value come from? from more and more people trusting in it as money or as a thing that stores value. As more and more people enter Bitcoin, more and more people are agreeing in putting value in it, until it replaces a lot of the trust and value that fiat money has now.

If we see it that way, its value is not comming from nothing (as it happens with bubbles) it comes from replacing the value that people formerly put in fiat (i.e I once have 6000 $ and now I prefer to have 1 BTC)


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October 28, 2017, 02:36:43 PM
 #71

Two months ago he always needed corrections (At least 50 percent ) And now we see bitcoin price all time high . We know the price will rise but gradually , Bitcoin changed lot ; I do not know bitcoin became strong? Or just a bubble?

It's indeed a strong currency and not just a bubble. Bitcoin already prove itself in the market how big it is and how far will it go and day by day we experiencing some small correction but not a downfall. Breaking its $6000 barrier is a good indication that bitcoin will not be contented in its place but rather will rise more.
It is very difficult to determine the bubble or no bubble. A lot depends on us. Until we believe in bitcoin he can't turn into a bubble. Even if the creators of bitcoin intended it to be a bubble. We have in hand a mechanism that can change the world. And can turn into a bubble if we all hold coins in your wallet and wait that its price will continue to grow.

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October 28, 2017, 02:52:00 PM
 #72

It might be a bubble if we see it from the point of view that is not backed by real value. People are putting too much money in something that is not real appart from the internet...

HOWEVER we can look at it from a different point of view. Money is just money because people agree that it represents value. Same with Bitcoin. Where does Bitcoin value come from? from more and more people trusting in it as money or as a thing that stores value. As more and more people enter Bitcoin, more and more people are agreeing in putting value in it, until it replaces a lot of the trust and value that fiat money has now.

If we see it that way, its value is not comming from nothing (as it happens with bubbles) it comes from replacing the value that people formerly put in fiat (i.e I once have 6000 $ and now I prefer to have 1 BTC)


Fiat doesn't have any value, that's why it's called fiat currency. The rest I agree with though.

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October 28, 2017, 03:28:16 PM
 #73

It might be a bubble if we see it from the point of view that is not backed by real value. People are putting too much money in something that is not real appart from the internet...

HOWEVER we can look at it from a different point of view. Money is just money because people agree that it represents value. Same with Bitcoin. Where does Bitcoin value come from? from more and more people trusting in it as money or as a thing that stores value. As more and more people enter Bitcoin, more and more people are agreeing in putting value in it, until it replaces a lot of the trust and value that fiat money has now.

If we see it that way, its value is not comming from nothing (as it happens with bubbles) it comes from replacing the value that people formerly put in fiat (i.e I once have 6000 $ and now I prefer to have 1 BTC)


Fiat doesn't have any value, that's why it's called fiat currency. The rest I agree with though.
That's unfair, if fiat doesn't have value then bitcoin as well other digital currencies doesn't have value. The reason is that till date bitcoin is valued in terms of fiat based on the locality or the country. It's described as single bitcoin equals certain number of USD. In this regard if USD doesn't have value how will bitcoin gets value.

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October 28, 2017, 03:49:45 PM
 #74

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.

This is quite early to predict that. When Bitcoin reached the ATH of $2.8K, it declined to $1.8K after few days back in July. So Bitcoin is still isn't mature enough to be considered stable investment.
Currently it's enjoying boom period but such high pace rise may be a resultant of too much speculative activities. So situation may come that some opposed news could break this ladder and Bitcoin decline back dramatically.

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October 28, 2017, 03:51:01 PM
 #75

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.

This is quite early to predict that. When Bitcoin reached the ATH of $2.8K, it declined to $1.8K after few days back in July. So Bitcoin is still isn't mature enough to be considered stable investment.
Currently it's enjoying boom period but such high pace rise may be a resultant of too much speculative activities. So situation may come that some opposed news could break this ladder and Bitcoin decline back dramatically.
I didn't say it's a stable investment. It's one of the most volatile assets in existence right now. But it's unlikely that it will crash significantly for large amounts of time due to the increase in public awareness and interest.

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October 28, 2017, 04:21:35 PM
 #76

It might be a bubble if we see it from the point of view that is not backed by real value. People are putting too much money in something that is not real appart from the internet...

HOWEVER we can look at it from a different point of view. Money is just money because people agree that it represents value. Same with Bitcoin. Where does Bitcoin value come from? from more and more people trusting in it as money or as a thing that stores value. As more and more people enter Bitcoin, more and more people are agreeing in putting value in it, until it replaces a lot of the trust and value that fiat money has now.

If we see it that way, its value is not comming from nothing (as it happens with bubbles) it comes from replacing the value that people formerly put in fiat (i.e I once have 6000 $ and now I prefer to have 1 BTC)


now a lot of bitcoin users are making the price go up, bitcoin follows the global market economy system, and therefore certainly many choose to hold a number of bitcoin versus mematsi fiat money, because the benefits of bitcoin always look keuntunganya in every year, while fiat nilanya money will increasingly downs are getting more and more worthless

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webtricks
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October 28, 2017, 04:43:39 PM
 #77

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.

This is quite early to predict that. When Bitcoin reached the ATH of $2.8K, it declined to $1.8K after few days back in July. So Bitcoin is still isn't mature enough to be considered stable investment.
Currently it's enjoying boom period but such high pace rise may be a resultant of too much speculative activities. So situation may come that some opposed news could break this ladder and Bitcoin decline back dramatically.
I didn't say it's a stable investment. It's one of the most volatile assets in existence right now. But it's unlikely that it will crash significantly for large amounts of time due to the increase in public awareness and interest.

No doubt it's public awareness is increasing notably. But still I feel due to continuous rise in price, a speculative layer of price has been developed around Bitcoin. This layer could easily broke if Bitcoin faces any kind of negative FUD. Hence as a result, price may decline 10-20% easily.
Also this pace of rise may meet saturation point soon enough which is much needed for long term sustainability of prices.

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October 28, 2017, 05:01:02 PM
 #78

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?


I actually liked the man for mainting the position of sitting on the fence rather than coming outrightly to either be for bitcoin or against it. On whether bitcoin is a bubble, the issue has gone beyond that point and everyone knows that even if price crash to support such theory, it will still rise again and the rising again will be more than the initial position. The believe is strong, and I don't see it stopping anytime soon.

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Fireblade
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October 28, 2017, 07:04:12 PM
 #79

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

In fact in present time bitcoin is really getting a good support from its investors, and they are not letting the price of bitcoin to dump. Even in very critical conditions  the users of bitcoin are not letting the price of bitcoin down but giving more support it, so that its price once gain get start increasing. in learly days people were not too much mature and that is the reason that we have seen so many bitcoin crash like situation, but hope that as now the investors are too much experienced and therefore they are not accepting any panic selling in future.
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October 28, 2017, 07:05:43 PM
 #80

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.

This is quite early to predict that. When Bitcoin reached the ATH of $2.8K, it declined to $1.8K after few days back in July. So Bitcoin is still isn't mature enough to be considered stable investment.
Currently it's enjoying boom period but such high pace rise may be a resultant of too much speculative activities. So situation may come that some opposed news could break this ladder and Bitcoin decline back dramatically.
I didn't say it's a stable investment. It's one of the most volatile assets in existence right now. But it's unlikely that it will crash significantly for large amounts of time due to the increase in public awareness and interest.

No doubt it's public awareness is increasing notably. But still I feel due to continuous rise in price, a speculative layer of price has been developed around Bitcoin. This layer could easily broke if Bitcoin faces any kind of negative FUD. Hence as a result, price may decline 10-20% easily.
Also this pace of rise may meet saturation point soon enough which is much needed for long term sustainability of prices.
A drop of 10-20% is nothing in crypto though. If Bitcoin goes up 500% and drops 20% nobody in their right mind would care about the drop. And that's what I meant when I said it won't significantly crash for long periods of time, regardless of FUD. There are too many people involved now.

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October 29, 2017, 08:05:19 AM
 #81

It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.

Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?
Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price.

Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well.

And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments.

So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense.
I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity).  There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth.  Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin.  In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10.
That's the case with any denominator though.
Even if you take Gold and reintroduce it as a currency, nobody will be able to tell you what that piece of Gold should be worth. Because there is no such value. The value always strictly depends on two trading parties coming to an agreement.

As such, it makes literally no difference whether we decide to all collectively use Gold, Fiat, or Bitcoin as our standard currency. The amount of goods traded will adjust accoding to the supply and demand of currency vs goods.
Bitcoin is by far the most convenient and efficient solution though, and more sophisticated cryptos will be even more so.

Ok, so this is kind of tricky, but I think we actually agree somewhat.  The benefit of using a gold-backed currency (or gold itself) is that the supply is tangible, limited, and cannot be changed easily.  In essence, your country's supply of gold represents the value/worth of your country's economy.  If you have 1000 oz of gold, then each ounce represents 1/1000 of your country's economic output/worth/wealth.  If your economy grows (increases in productivity and wealth), each ounce of gold is worth more, and vice-versa.

The problem with fiat currency, of course, is that a government can increase the supply at will, which devalues it.

Bitcoin is not tangible, but it does have the advantage of limited supply, and actually its even better than gold in that the supply is completely fixed (assuming that enough people don't decide to increase the cap, which hopefully will never happen).  So I think that bitcoin could work just as well as gold as a currency, but the problem is that right now it doesn't.  As a currency, it just sits next to all other currencies.  It isn't backed by a particular economic system (like a country, state, etc.) that includes well-defined/well-known production or services of some sort, so it's not really possible to figure out how much it should be worth.
Most of that is spot on. The only point that is still questionable is the idea of "how much anything should be worth". Even when you have a currency "backed up by a country's productivity", both can arbitrarily be decided to define each other. But each on its own has no inherent value whatsoever. Which is why even gold is inherently worthless. The only reason people can't think of Gold as worthless is because a lot of people have decided that it's not. The same is happening with Bitcoin. Even if it has no inherent value, that doesn't matter because nothing in this world does. As long as the quantity is limited and the item can be moved around easily in portions it can be used as a currency. But again, no matter what item you choose, it is worthless on its own.
Let's get down to basics.  What does it mean for something to have intrinsic value (i.e., to be worth something)?  This isn't exactly a technical definition, but it seems to me that an object has intrinsic value if it's useful for something in a fundamental way, apart from other things.  For example, corn has intrinsic value because it can be used for food.  Cotton has intrinsic value because it can be used to make clothing.  Wood has intrinsic value because it can be used as fuel or to construct buildings.  By that definition, gold does have some intrinsic value, as it's useful for computer chips, some chemical processes, and of course for making things that are beautiful to behold (jewelry, etc.).  Its price is inflated because many people have agreed to make it a store of value, but it's still useful for things apart from being a type of currency.

Moving on to pure currencies...a dollar bill, by itself, is worthless (except maybe as a tiny bit of fuel, I suppose).  The same is true of a bitcoin.  However, as I said, the dollar has at least been defined (and collectively agreed upon) to represent part of the US economy.  Using a grossly oversimplified example, let's say the entire US economy consisted of the production of 5 ears of corn, and let's say that only 1 dollar has been created to represent the US economy.  Assuming you could do nothing else with that dollar, and putting aside all other considerations (which are many), it would make sense that each ear of corn would be worth 20 cents.  If only 2 ears of corn had been produced, each would be worth 50 cents.  Of course the global economy is vastly more complex, but on a basic level, all of the dollars out there can be mapped to the value of the US economy to give some general sense of what each dollar should be worth.

But when you look at bitcoin, there's nothing specific that it can be mapped to.  If bitcoin became the official currency of turnip producers, then you could get some idea of the value of a bitcoin based on how well the turnip crops did this year.  But without some sort of "anchor" like this, there's no way to figure out the value of a bitcoin, which is why it has such ridiculous volatility.



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webtricks
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October 29, 2017, 01:04:37 PM
 #82

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

~

~
~

~
A drop of 10-20% is nothing in crypto though. If Bitcoin goes up 500% and drops 20% nobody in their right mind would care about the drop. And that's what I meant when I said it won't significantly crash for long periods of time, regardless of FUD. There are too many people involved now.

500% is something impossible for Bitcoin to reach in near future. It means we are hoping Bitcoin to reach $30K which isn't seems happening anyhow. On the other hand how can you say 20% isn't a big decline. Suppose Bitcoin crash 20% tomorrow, it will decline from $5800 to $4640 which I consider to be a very big decline.
No doubt we have huge folk of people using or investing in Bitcoin but still many turn weak hands in the time of negative atmosphere. Thus, there is some degree of bubble formed around Bitcoin.

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October 29, 2017, 03:43:23 PM
 #83

Most of that is spot on. The only point that is still questionable is the idea of "how much anything should be worth". Even when you have a currency "backed up by a country's productivity", both can arbitrarily be decided to define each other. But each on its own has no inherent value whatsoever. Which is why even gold is inherently worthless. The only reason people can't think of Gold as worthless is because a lot of people have decided that it's not. The same is happening with Bitcoin. Even if it has no inherent value, that doesn't matter because nothing in this world does. As long as the quantity is limited and the item can be moved around easily in portions it can be used as a currency. But again, no matter what item you choose, it is worthless on its own.
Let's get down to basics.  What does it mean for something to have intrinsic value (i.e., to be worth something)?  This isn't exactly a technical definition, but it seems to me that an object has intrinsic value if it's useful for something in a fundamental way, apart from other things.  For example, corn has intrinsic value because it can be used for food.  Cotton has intrinsic value because it can be used to make clothing.  Wood has intrinsic value because it can be used as fuel or to construct buildings.  By that definition, gold does have some intrinsic value, as it's useful for computer chips, some chemical processes, and of course for making things that are beautiful to behold (jewelry, etc.).  Its price is inflated because many people have agreed to make it a store of value, but it's still useful for things apart from being a type of currency.

Moving on to pure currencies...a dollar bill, by itself, is worthless (except maybe as a tiny bit of fuel, I suppose).  The same is true of a bitcoin.  However, as I said, the dollar has at least been defined (and collectively agreed upon) to represent part of the US economy.  Using a grossly oversimplified example, let's say the entire US economy consisted of the production of 5 ears of corn, and let's say that only 1 dollar has been created to represent the US economy.  Assuming you could do nothing else with that dollar, and putting aside all other considerations (which are many), it would make sense that each ear of corn would be worth 20 cents.  If only 2 ears of corn had been produced, each would be worth 50 cents.  Of course the global economy is vastly more complex, but on a basic level, all of the dollars out there can be mapped to the value of the US economy to give some general sense of what each dollar should be worth.

But when you look at bitcoin, there's nothing specific that it can be mapped to.  If bitcoin became the official currency of turnip producers, then you could get some idea of the value of a bitcoin based on how well the turnip crops did this year.  But without some sort of "anchor" like this, there's no way to figure out the value of a bitcoin, which is why it has such ridiculous volatility.


The point that I've been trying to make is that nothing in this world has an intrinsic value (an absolute measure of value that can universally be agreed upon by everyone) and that value is decided arbitrarily by the two parties of a trade.

Your example would be correct, but it applies more to Bitcoin than it does to the US Dollar. The US Dollar is being printed rather arbitrarily by the Federal Reserve. As such, whatever mapping you have is not accurate as it is not updated sufficiently fast to accommodate for the change in monetary supply. A $1 Whopper will still be a $1 Whopper even though the supply of USD has multiplied several times over, while the economy has not grown anywhere near as much.

Hence, whichever anchor you try to decide on doesn't matter. Because the anchor itself is always going to be so dynamic that it might as well be arbitrary. And Bitcoin, unlike Gold and US Dollars, at least has a fixed supply that can not be changed by the will of a very tiny group of people. As such it would remove a significant amount of arbitration from the financial system once a large enough group of people shifts over to use it (or another crypto) as their main currency.


In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

~

~
~

~
A drop of 10-20% is nothing in crypto though. If Bitcoin goes up 500% and drops 20% nobody in their right mind would care about the drop. And that's what I meant when I said it won't significantly crash for long periods of time, regardless of FUD. There are too many people involved now.

500% is something impossible for Bitcoin to reach in near future. It means we are hoping Bitcoin to reach $30K which isn't seems happening anyhow. On the other hand how can you say 20% isn't a big decline. Suppose Bitcoin crash 20% tomorrow, it will decline from $5800 to $4640 which I consider to be a very big decline.
No doubt we have huge folk of people using or investing in Bitcoin but still many turn weak hands in the time of negative atmosphere. Thus, there is some degree of bubble formed around Bitcoin.
The 500% example was for what happened this year. An increase from around $1000 to $6000, thus a multiplication by 6 or an increase of 500%, give or take. If Bitcoin drops even back to $4000 flat, it would be an insignificant "crash" due to the fact that it would still be up 300% from its starting value in 2017.

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October 29, 2017, 06:14:06 PM
 #84

Most of that is spot on. The only point that is still questionable is the idea of "how much anything should be worth". Even when you have a currency "backed up by a country's productivity", both can arbitrarily be decided to define each other. But each on its own has no inherent value whatsoever. Which is why even gold is inherently worthless. The only reason people can't think of Gold as worthless is because a lot of people have decided that it's not. The same is happening with Bitcoin. Even if it has no inherent value, that doesn't matter because nothing in this world does. As long as the quantity is limited and the item can be moved around easily in portions it can be used as a currency. But again, no matter what item you choose, it is worthless on its own.
Let's get down to basics.  What does it mean for something to have intrinsic value (i.e., to be worth something)?  This isn't exactly a technical definition, but it seems to me that an object has intrinsic value if it's useful for something in a fundamental way, apart from other things.  For example, corn has intrinsic value because it can be used for food.  Cotton has intrinsic value because it can be used to make clothing.  Wood has intrinsic value because it can be used as fuel or to construct buildings.  By that definition, gold does have some intrinsic value, as it's useful for computer chips, some chemical processes, and of course for making things that are beautiful to behold (jewelry, etc.).  Its price is inflated because many people have agreed to make it a store of value, but it's still useful for things apart from being a type of currency.

Moving on to pure currencies...a dollar bill, by itself, is worthless (except maybe as a tiny bit of fuel, I suppose).  The same is true of a bitcoin.  However, as I said, the dollar has at least been defined (and collectively agreed upon) to represent part of the US economy.  Using a grossly oversimplified example, let's say the entire US economy consisted of the production of 5 ears of corn, and let's say that only 1 dollar has been created to represent the US economy.  Assuming you could do nothing else with that dollar, and putting aside all other considerations (which are many), it would make sense that each ear of corn would be worth 20 cents.  If only 2 ears of corn had been produced, each would be worth 50 cents.  Of course the global economy is vastly more complex, but on a basic level, all of the dollars out there can be mapped to the value of the US economy to give some general sense of what each dollar should be worth.

But when you look at bitcoin, there's nothing specific that it can be mapped to.  If bitcoin became the official currency of turnip producers, then you could get some idea of the value of a bitcoin based on how well the turnip crops did this year.  But without some sort of "anchor" like this, there's no way to figure out the value of a bitcoin, which is why it has such ridiculous volatility.

The point that I've been trying to make is that nothing in this world has an intrinsic value (an absolute measure of value that can universally be agreed upon by everyone) and that value is decided arbitrarily by the two parties of a trade.

Ah, ok, I think I understand what you're saying.  I think we're arguing more about semantics than economic principles.  You're talking about an intrinsic value, which you define as an exact value.  By that definition, yes, the same thing will have a different value to different people.  I've simply been talking about whether or not something has a value greater than zero to someone.

Your example would be correct, but it applies more to Bitcoin than it does to the US Dollar. The US Dollar is being printed rather arbitrarily by the Federal Reserve. As such, whatever mapping you have is not accurate as it is not updated sufficiently fast to accommodate for the change in monetary supply. A $1 Whopper will still be a $1 Whopper even though the supply of USD has multiplied several times over, while the economy has not grown anywhere near as much.

Yes, I agree with you about bitcoin being a currency for my example.  In my example, I did not state that the money supply was fixed at $1, but that's what I had intended (in my head, that was part of "putting aside all other considerations").

You are also correct that that mapping will not be very accurate, particularly on a short-term basis.  As I said, I was oversimplifying things.  It certainly takes a while for prices to change based on money supply changes.  There are also lots of other factors that can change things significantly, like if other countries treat the dollar as a store of value and buy it for investment purposes.  However, money supply effects do eventually propagate throughout the system.  If the Fed doubled the money supply overnight, that $1 Whopper would not cost $2 the next day, but its price will likely increase over the following months.

Hence, whichever anchor you try to decide on doesn't matter. Because the anchor itself is always going to be so dynamic that it might as well be arbitrary. And Bitcoin, unlike Gold and US Dollars, at least has a fixed supply that can not be changed by the will of a very tiny group of people. As such it would remove a significant amount of arbitration from the financial system once a large enough group of people shifts over to use it (or another crypto) as their main currency.

Yes, this is exactly what I was saying before about how bitcoin doesn't have a way to value it because it doesn't have a large enough group of people using it as their main currency: "So I think that bitcoin could work just as well as gold as a currency, but the problem is that right now it doesn't.  As a currency, it just sits next to all other currencies.  It isn't backed by a particular economic system (like a country, state, etc.) that includes well-defined/well-known production or services of some sort, so it's not really possible to figure out how much it should be worth."


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October 29, 2017, 06:51:13 PM
 #85

Seems like we're on the same page then. It's just difficult to really work things out sometimes, since language is extremely ambiguous in nature, so the dialogue has to bounce back and forth a few times to clear everything up when it comes to more complex topics.

Now with that said, I'm not sure we can talk about a bubble. Since there's no efficient price finding mechanism in place for Bitcoin yet.

Until enough people hold Bitcoins for the exchange rate to stay relatively calm during market movements we won't be able to make any accurate estimates about "the value" of Bitcoin.

It will also heavily depend on whether Bitcoin is used as an asset only, or as a currency for daily purchases, or even as the "fundamental" currency against which every other cryptographic asset is traded against. If it's traded against traditional assets (or if traditional assets make their way on the blockchain) the total value could easily crack the trillions.
But that involves so many factors that it's hard, if not impossible, to tell when or if that will ever happen.
For reference, the largest stock exchanges are around one trillion in size each. So if Bitcoin was the gateway into all cryptographic assets a value of one trillion wouldn't really be high in the coming decade.
If it was used for daily exchanges that would be several tens of trillions. If it was both, then we're starting to approach one hundred trillion. But it could also find itself replaced at some point.


In either case, since we lack a price finding mechanism it's not really possible to talk about a bubble. There are plenty of ways to justify prices 10 to 1000 times higher, but nobody really know if Bitcoin will take any of these ways yet.

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October 30, 2017, 04:00:01 PM
 #86

Seems like we're on the same page then. It's just difficult to really work things out sometimes, since language is extremely ambiguous in nature, so the dialogue has to bounce back and forth a few times to clear everything up when it comes to more complex topics.

Agreed.  I think we are on the same page now.  Thanks for a great discussion.  It has helped me think through the way bitcoin, currencies, and economic systems work more than I have in the past.

Now with that said, I'm not sure we can talk about a bubble. Since there's no efficient price finding mechanism in place for Bitcoin yet.

Until enough people hold Bitcoins for the exchange rate to stay relatively calm during market movements we won't be able to make any accurate estimates about "the value" of Bitcoin.

I have a few thoughts here.

First, technically speaking, there is indeed no proper way to determine a bitcoin's value, so there's no way to say definitively that we're in a bubble.

Second, one could argue that since bitcoin doesn't really have the backing of an economic system yet, as we discussed, it's one of the biggest bubbles in history today.  However, that could completely change in the future if/as adoption continues to grow.

Third, one could look at bitcoin's history to make "informal bubble calls," meaning that price has gone too far too fast and is likely to undergo a very significant correction (e.g., 50%+).

I tend to look at bitcoin bubble discussions using all three views, but I think that #2 and #3, if used, need to be discussed in the context of #1, meaning that we first should acknowledge that it's not possible right now, by definition, to say whether bitcoin price is a bubble.  So I think we agree there.

It will also heavily depend on whether Bitcoin is used as an asset only, or as a currency for daily purchases, or even as the "fundamental" currency against which every other cryptographic asset is traded against. If it's traded against traditional assets (or if traditional assets make their way on the blockchain) the total value could easily crack the trillions.
But that involves so many factors that it's hard, if not impossible, to tell when or if that will ever happen.
For reference, the largest stock exchanges are around one trillion in size each. So if Bitcoin was the gateway into all cryptographic assets a value of one trillion wouldn't really be high in the coming decade.
If it was used for daily exchanges that would be several tens of trillions. If it was both, then we're starting to approach one hundred trillion. But it could also find itself replaced at some point.

In either case, since we lack a price finding mechanism it's not really possible to talk about a bubble. There are plenty of ways to justify prices 10 to 1000 times higher, but nobody really know if Bitcoin will take any of these ways yet.

Yep, I think this all makes very good sense, and it's a well-balanced view.


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October 31, 2017, 12:47:29 AM
 #87

I think bitcoin is in the bubble mode...correction at $5000 will be seen soon...
I think that sometimes people misunderstand or misuse words, that is only  a small correction nothing more, to me bubble bursting is if bitcoin crashed to 600 dollars or something as dramatic as that and since that is not going to happen then the only thing we can say is that a correction may come but that is not a sure thing especially since there are many reasons to think that bitcoin is going to keep growing in the next weeks and months.

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October 31, 2017, 12:58:27 AM
 #88

maybe for some people, the up and down of the price is a bubble but for the other people is not a bubble so I think its depend how we look the price. if the price is up then we can sell bitcoin to reach profit and if the price is down, then we can buy more bitcoin so we can add more amount in our wallet. but in out there, if the price is down, then many people will be panic and they are selling their bitcoin because they don't want to get lose but after the price is up again, they are regret because they selling too early.

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October 31, 2017, 10:06:44 AM
 #89

i think it will be bubble for next, remainin for 4 years is the last big bubble hahaha
bitcoin price is make a big price movement, its to dangerously
for now its like a time bomb, with no one know it will explode. Sad

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October 31, 2017, 09:00:26 PM
 #90

Seems like we're on the same page then. It's just difficult to really work things out sometimes, since language is extremely ambiguous in nature, so the dialogue has to bounce back and forth a few times to clear everything up when it comes to more complex topics.

Agreed.  I think we are on the same page now.  Thanks for a great discussion.  It has helped me think through the way bitcoin, currencies, and economic systems work more than I have in the past.

Now with that said, I'm not sure we can talk about a bubble. Since there's no efficient price finding mechanism in place for Bitcoin yet.

Until enough people hold Bitcoins for the exchange rate to stay relatively calm during market movements we won't be able to make any accurate estimates about "the value" of Bitcoin.

I have a few thoughts here.

First, technically speaking, there is indeed no proper way to determine a bitcoin's value, so there's no way to say definitively that we're in a bubble.

Second, one could argue that since bitcoin doesn't really have the backing of an economic system yet, as we discussed, it's one of the biggest bubbles in history today.  However, that could completely change in the future if/as adoption continues to grow.

Third, one could look at bitcoin's history to make "informal bubble calls," meaning that price has gone too far too fast and is likely to undergo a very significant correction (e.g., 50%+).

I tend to look at bitcoin bubble discussions using all three views, but I think that #2 and #3, if used, need to be discussed in the context of #1, meaning that we first should acknowledge that it's not possible right now, by definition, to say whether bitcoin price is a bubble.  So I think we agree there.

It will also heavily depend on whether Bitcoin is used as an asset only, or as a currency for daily purchases, or even as the "fundamental" currency against which every other cryptographic asset is traded against. If it's traded against traditional assets (or if traditional assets make their way on the blockchain) the total value could easily crack the trillions.
But that involves so many factors that it's hard, if not impossible, to tell when or if that will ever happen.
For reference, the largest stock exchanges are around one trillion in size each. So if Bitcoin was the gateway into all cryptographic assets a value of one trillion wouldn't really be high in the coming decade.
If it was used for daily exchanges that would be several tens of trillions. If it was both, then we're starting to approach one hundred trillion. But it could also find itself replaced at some point.

In either case, since we lack a price finding mechanism it's not really possible to talk about a bubble. There are plenty of ways to justify prices 10 to 1000 times higher, but nobody really know if Bitcoin will take any of these ways yet.

Yep, I think this all makes very good sense, and it's a well-balanced view.
Very valid points indeed. It just gets a bit difficult to really have discussions on this forum since the terminology gets heavily conflated and used improperly. But point 3 is probably what most people mean on this forum when they talk about a bubble (which is just a market reversal).
Point 2 is a very nice way to look at it: Either we're in the biggest bubble in a very long time, or there's no bubble at all. Hopefully Bitcoin will be here to stay for a very long time though.

And it's certainly true that we need to look at the first definition from a perspective of the other two. Otherwise making any kind of sound judgment about investments would be completely impossible and resemble gambling instead.

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November 01, 2017, 04:19:14 PM
 #91

Very valid points indeed. It just gets a bit difficult to really have discussions on this forum since the terminology gets heavily conflated and used improperly.

Quite true, especially when people get emotionally involved and just start using buzzwords that they've heard before.  I can't count the number of times I've seen the term "ponzi scheme" misused (often in reference to bitcoin).

Point 2 is a very nice way to look at it: Either we're in the biggest bubble in a very long time, or there's no bubble at all.

Indeed.  The hard part is figuring out which it is before the rest of the market does. Smiley  And really, right now I think it can still go either way.  It's like a financial instrument that's just experienced a sharp rise in price.  One of two things needs to happen for the price to go higher: either consolidation or a pullback.  Or, another way to put that is that either value needs to catch up to price over time (consolidation), or price needs to catch up to value (pullback).  Regarding bitcoin's long-term outlook, either value needs to catch up to price (adoption increases), or price needs to catch up to value (price pullback/crash).


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November 01, 2017, 09:26:05 PM
 #92

Quite true, especially when people get emotionally involved and just start using buzzwords that they've heard before.  I can't count the number of times I've seen the term "ponzi scheme" misused (often in reference to bitcoin).
Yeah, I've seen the buzzword mania all over the MonaCo chats in the recent few days. Everybody blindly gulping up the statement that Kris made, even though it's complete horseshit. I'm really not sure if people are not seeing what is happening, or just simply don't care and try to push the prices instead for short-term gains - at the potential demise of the crypto scene.

Indeed.  The hard part is figuring out which it is before the rest of the market does. Smiley  And really, right now I think it can still go either way.  It's like a financial instrument that's just experienced a sharp rise in price.  One of two things needs to happen for the price to go higher: either consolidation or a pullback.  Or, another way to put that is that either value needs to catch up to price over time (consolidation), or price needs to catch up to value (pullback).  Regarding bitcoin's long-term outlook, either value needs to catch up to price (adoption increases), or price needs to catch up to value (price pullback/crash).
It can definitely still go both ways.

So far all the government and central banking FUD (leaders attacking crypto) has been left largely ignored. If things stay this way, which is very well possible as decentralized exchanges are about to come creeping up, Bitcoin or at least the crypto market as a whole will keep climbing into the trillions.

If people suddenly start bending over to the FUD crypto might have a problem and Bitcoin could very quickly evaporate all savings of many people.
From this perspective it seems highly immoral for governments to step in and FUD in a way that would literally destroy the lives of people who were reckless enough to go all in, but if we look back at the past it certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Very exciting times ahead! Will we finally see governments cooperating with the citizens they are supposed to serve? Or will they go to a FUD war?

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November 01, 2017, 11:06:57 PM
 #93

In early stages of bitcoin we had sharp drops but now everything is different then ever. we will not see a bubble things again.
community is more strong then other commodities.

We'll see lots of bubbles in the altcoin market. I don't think that Bitcoin will have any major crashes like the 2-3 year period after the first 1k ATH again though.

This is quite early to predict that. When Bitcoin reached the ATH of $2.8K, it declined to $1.8K after few days back in July. So Bitcoin is still isn't mature enough to be considered stable investment.
Currently it's enjoying boom period but such high pace rise may be a resultant of too much speculative activities. So situation may come that some opposed news could break this ladder and Bitcoin decline back dramatically.
I didn't say it's a stable investment. It's one of the most volatile assets in existence right now. But it's unlikely that it will crash significantly for large amounts of time due to the increase in public awareness and interest.

No doubt it's public awareness is increasing notably. But still I feel due to continuous rise in price, a speculative layer of price has been developed around Bitcoin. This layer could easily broke if Bitcoin faces any kind of negative FUD. Hence as a result, price may decline 10-20% easily.
Also this pace of rise may meet saturation point soon enough which is much needed for long term sustainability of prices.
A drop of 10-20% is nothing in crypto though. If Bitcoin goes up 500% and drops 20% nobody in their right mind would care about the drop. And that's what I meant when I said it won't significantly crash for long periods of time, regardless of FUD. There are too many people involved now.

The continuous growth of bitcoin's price increases the number of investors. It is now known to social media and was legally accepted by many countries. Its negative issues never blown the trust of people who holds it. In fact, there are big companies which give their fully support on cryptocurrency. I can say that it is now in bubble inspite of many hindrances.

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November 02, 2017, 01:36:23 AM
 #94

The last bubble was in 2013.

Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html

Quote
  • William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
  • Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
  • "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.

Do you think we're in the 5th bubble?


We can not really tell exactly when. The bubble happens for a reason. But as we all witnessing now, Bitcoin price is really spiking up and thus the demand is continuing to increase dramatically. With this, the possible bubble may occur if the price ceiling of Bitcoin, if ever there is, will hit. Price ceiling means maximum price that it can reach. Which means that the price will no longer move up and tend to go down which may lead to panic selling and a dramatic drop of value. I'm not an expert, this is what happened in other investment instruments that may happen also in the cryptocurrency market.