$12,000,000+ BTC someday to replace Fedwire?

[ChromaticStar]

Assuming the most optimistic scenario, BTC replaces Fedwire 100%.

Over the past 4 months, BTC's blockchain volume has been roughly $1 billion dollars per day.  In 2016 Fedwire sent approximately $2 trillion per day. This is an astonishingly large amount of cash and more than notes of USD notes in circulation and really makes me wonder what is going on with the banks. In order for BTC to match this volume of Fedwire transactions, its price would need to be 2000 times higher than it currently is or roughly $12,000,000.

I really don't know if this is even plausible, but an interesting hypothetical. This would make Satoshi, with his 1,000,000 BTC stash, worth $12 trillion. No wonder he's gone silent.

I suppose even just a fraction of this, like 1%, could be considered a major success, or $120,000 BTC. Could this be what people are starting to price in since there is still so much potential?

Any thoughts, critiques or other ways to value BTC are appreciated.

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[fiulpro]

Well I think this scenario is practically impossible, bitcoins transactions exceeding that of fedwire.
Because banks will always be a major contributors and not everyone will choose to keep their money as bitcoins , you know people have their own opinion when it comes to normal currency and cryptocurrency and not many are in favour of cryptocurrency right now.I don't think anyone will choose to do transactions through bitcoins because not everyone can accept !
Also for that you need a lot of time , for world to accept bitcoins and hope we would be able to see it happening.

[davis196]

The blockchain just can`t handle so many transactions.The "Fedwire" can`t be replaced,because the US government with all it`s resources(military,financial,political) supports it.
Satoshi a trillionaire?That would be totally unfair.By the way,i still don`t know is Satoshi Nakamoto free and alive?
Perhaps he is in some prison or maybe dead.  

[lordquanta]

Assuming the most optimistic scenario, BTC replaces Fedwire 100%.

Over the past 4 months, BTC's blockchain volume has been roughly $1 billion dollars per day.  In 2016 Fedwire sent approximately $2 trillion per day. This is an astonishingly large amount of cash and more than notes of USD notes in circulation and really makes me wonder what is going on with the banks. In order for BTC to match this volume of Fedwire transactions, its price would need to be 2000 times higher than it currently is or roughly $12,000,000.

I really don't know if this is even plausible, but an interesting hypothetical. This would make Satoshi, with his 1,000,000 BTC stash, worth $12 trillion. No wonder he's gone silent.

I suppose even just a fraction of this, like 1%, could be considered a major success, or $120,000 BTC. Could this be what people are starting to price in since there is still so much potential?

Any thoughts, critiques or other ways to value BTC are appreciated.

Total market capital of bitcoin is somewhat around 101,931,068,218 And at the same time fedwire is moving 2 trillion dollars per day. From the stats alone we see that total market capital of bitcoin is reasonable far away from what fedwire is handling on  daily basis. With that said it is not entirely impossible for bitcoin to compete with fedwire within few years. Given that growth rate of bitcoin adoption is remaining same or more. More importantly other govt or at least if federal reserve finds out that bitcoin is posing serious threat to their business then situation could get bad sooner than later.  However fedwire has nothing to fear about bitcoin at this stage though.
The value of bitcoin which needs to increase to match up with current fedwire is doing on daily basis is huge but bitcoin is known to do wonder all along.  One interesting point though by the time bitcoin is near to the 2 trillion per day, how much do you think fedwire will be handling?

[ImHash]

Maybe not $12 million but $12,000 in a year is reachable, Less than 3 month ago people thought bitcoin price will reach $6000 in 2020 but it reached $6000 33 month sooner than what they expected. I heard about a 21% difficulty increase 2 days ago, Price increased  50% if that keeps happening then difficulty needs to increase 42% to see $12,000. Fedwire is not going to stay the same when bitcoin reaches $12,000 and when bitcoin reaches $30,000 how much fedwire would be then?

[haroldtee]

The blockchain just can`t handle so many transactions.The "Fedwire" can`t be replaced,because the US government with all it`s resources(military,financial,political) supports it.
Satoshi a trillionaire?That would be totally unfair.By the way,i still don`t know is Satoshi Nakamoto free and alive?
Perhaps he is in some prison or maybe dead.  

LOL. How would it be unfair? He has really created something for the whole world to make use of and then if it grows in value to that stage, I see no reason why that would make it unfair. After all, looking back at the 1,000,000 bitcoin as at back then, was it really worth the payment for what the innovation he/they came up with?
However, we cannot obviously know what will happen in the future, but from the way it is, I do not see the possibilities of bitcoin replacing fedwire at the long run. We should consider the fact that just certain percentage of people globally will end up utilizing bitcoin and we can judge the possibilities base on that.

[Welsh]

The blockchain just can`t handle so many transactions.The "Fedwire" can`t be replaced,because the US government with all it`s resources(military,financial,political) supports it.
Satoshi a trillionaire?That would be totally unfair.By the way,i still don`t know is Satoshi Nakamoto free and alive?
Perhaps he is in some prison or maybe dead.  

If the general public supports Bitcoin then that's a lot more investment than the government. We don't need to pump resources into it, we just need people to use Bitcoin. The blockchain will handle it, and if it can't it will be sorted through forks.

[Lancusters]

At the moment it is impossible to handle the volume of bitcoin transaction. Bank transfers have a cost of several thousand times lower than bitcoin. Even increasing the size of the block can not cope with this load. This means that developers will have a lot of work to do in the future to bitcoin could cope with the volume of transactions. Before the miners began to dictate terms to developers.

[ChromaticStar]

At the moment it is impossible to handle the volume of bitcoin transaction. Bank transfers have a cost of several thousand times lower than bitcoin. Even increasing the size of the block can not cope with this load. This means that developers will have a lot of work to do in the future to bitcoin could cope with the volume of transactions. Before the miners began to dictate terms to developers.

This concept is meant to be primarily hypothetical. I realize we are still a long way off to scaling BTC to this level of payment system. The addition of the Lightning Network should help, and maybe at some point we'll be able to handle a block size increase or other means of scalability. A few years ago, no one thought BTC would hit the levels it's hitting now. We probaby shouldn't discount some lofty possibilities.

My thought is that if there is ever a major problem with central banks, like a large sovereign default, flare up in inflation, or another big recession, the first place people will start to turn to replace them will be crypto. Considering the way things are right now, BTC needs to be ready to scale in coming years.

As for Sotoshi being a trillionaire, this really doesn't matter. Money isn't wealth anyway, it's a claim on wealth. Those coins could sit unmoved on the blockchain forever and it wouldn't matter since they're only a unit of account, not wealth itself.

[beerlover]

Total market capital of bitcoin is somewhat around 101,931,068,218 And at the same time fedwire is moving 2 trillion dollars per day. From the stats alone we see that total market capital of bitcoin is reasonable far away from what fedwire is handling on  daily basis. With that said it is not entirely impossible for bitcoin to compete with fedwire within few years. Given that growth rate of bitcoin adoption is remaining same or more. More importantly other govt or at least if federal reserve finds out that bitcoin is posing serious threat to their business then situation could get bad sooner than later.  However fedwire has nothing to fear about bitcoin at this stage though.
The value of bitcoin which needs to increase to match up with current fedwire is doing on daily basis is huge but bitcoin is known to do wonder all along.  One interesting point though by the time bitcoin is near to the 2 trillion per day, how much do you think fedwire will be handling?

That is really an interesting point you have made. Fedwire would definitely not remain stagnant and it is going to keep growing as bitcoin grows apparently. It is very impossible to compete with fedwire not just in few years but so many years from now if we are realistic.

Even if there is a slight chance, it would be a huge fight, but no need to worry about that as the possibility is close to nothing. We can only be optimistic that bitcoin would keep growing but a stage will come it won't be this rapid as we have been experiencing it when the adoption has gotten to a maximum level.

[darthmaul]

Very opportunistic scenario you have created here and thoughtful as well. You have compared the fed wire which is traditional way of banking and translating which is why it is having more than enough customers to provide that much volume of transfer every day. For bitcoin being global it I snot having that much of the user base yet. Most of the population is unaware of it and that is why we don't see much of the progress in bitcoin in terms of values equal to federal reserves. Thats really impossible to achieve with that much limited coins of the bitcoin. For Ince in all it could reach max capacity if all the bitcoins are put into the circulation and when the rate per coin is more than 100K USD. Fairly impossible to achieve in near future But who knows, its bitcoin which was hiked from couple of dollars to 6K USD today.

[pitham1]

Assuming the most optimistic scenario, BTC replaces Fedwire 100%.

Over the past 4 months, BTC's blockchain volume has been roughly $1 billion dollars per day.  In 2016 Fedwire sent approximately $2 trillion per day. This is an astonishingly large amount of cash and more than notes of USD notes in circulation and really makes me wonder what is going on with the banks. In order for BTC to match this volume of Fedwire transactions, its price would need to be 2000 times higher than it currently is or roughly $12,000,000.

I really don't know if this is even plausible, but an interesting hypothetical. This would make Satoshi, with his 1,000,000 BTC stash, worth $12 trillion. No wonder he's gone silent.

I suppose even just a fraction of this, like 1%, could be considered a major success, or $120,000 BTC. Could this be what people are starting to price in since there is still so much potential?

Any thoughts, critiques or other ways to value BTC are appreciated.

How are you computing volume of transactions ($ per day) to the price of Bitcoin (in $). You are missing an important variable - the velocity of money, or how fast it circulates. You could have 1$ transferred between a million people in a single day, resulting in money circulation of $1 million. This is different from 1 bitcoin, valued at $ 1 million, changing hands.

[ChromaticStar]

Assuming the most optimistic scenario, BTC replaces Fedwire 100%.

Over the past 4 months, BTC's blockchain volume has been roughly $1 billion dollars per day.  In 2016 Fedwire sent approximately $2 trillion per day. This is an astonishingly large amount of cash and more than notes of USD notes in circulation and really makes me wonder what is going on with the banks. In order for BTC to match this volume of Fedwire transactions, its price would need to be 2000 times higher than it currently is or roughly $12,000,000.

I really don't know if this is even plausible, but an interesting hypothetical. This would make Satoshi, with his 1,000,000 BTC stash, worth $12 trillion. No wonder he's gone silent.

I suppose even just a fraction of this, like 1%, could be considered a major success, or $120,000 BTC. Could this be what people are starting to price in since there is still so much potential?

Any thoughts, critiques or other ways to value BTC are appreciated.

How are you computing volume of transactions ($ per day) to the price of Bitcoin (in $). You are missing an important variable - the velocity of money, or how fast it circulates. You could have 1$ transferred between a million people in a single day, resulting in money circulation of $1 million. This is different from 1 bitcoin, valued at $ 1 million, changing hands.

$ of volume comes from here:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/fedfunds_ann.htm

https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd

Fedwire daily transactions in 2016 were roughly 2000 times higher than the last 4 months of daily BTC transactions. Thus it would require a BTC price 2000 times higher to match this same volume.

Mathematically speaking, all I did was a linear extrapolation. Extrapolations like this are not expected to be perfect, but can provide ballpark estimates. It makes some assumptions that are purely hypothetical, not necessarily probable. I do not expect this to occur. But even if BTC takes 1% of this, that is still a price 20 times higher than today. It is hard to value BTC without some numerical measure to compare it. But when people like Buffett say BTC is a bubble worth $0 because it has no yield, he's not comparing it to already existing systems that have been numerically valued and from which BTC intends to take away market share.

If you want to value BTC, you need to compare it to something else you know can be accurately measured and valued. Many people right now are just price speculating, and they are the weak hands who are going to be shaken from the market when it dips. Assigning value based on volume, market cap or something else is the only way we can decide what the price should be.

[justdimin]

Maybe not $12 million but $12,000 in a year is reachable, Less than 3 month ago people thought bitcoin price will reach $6000 in 2020 but it reached $6000 33 month sooner than what they expected. I heard about a 21% difficulty increase 2 days ago, Price increased  50% if that keeps happening then difficulty needs to increase 42% to see $12,000. Fedwire is not going to stay the same when bitcoin reaches $12,000 and when bitcoin reaches $30,000 how much fedwire would be then?

Certainly bitcoin has always been surprisingly increasing in growth over time and the chances of it increasing the more in the coming years is possible.

However, that bitcoin would surpass fedwire is not possible. Just like you have said, fedwire would also be increasing and for bitcoin to even attain that level, then probably close to everyone in the world is going to be using bitcoin which we all know is not possible.

[ask]

this scenario is really utopic for me. Satoshi Nakomoto is probably still working for bitcoin. This huge amounts are getting too much attention from federal banks and they are planning some bad things for blockchain technology but they can't handle it.