ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[freedomno1]

Your previous comment assumed delivery did you calculate if it was undelivered

Using a value of 100 USD a bitcoin is outlandish last years values should be forced into your calculation using 20 dollars not 100 for all your calculations.

In fact, the backlog demands you use last years values they won't deliver 2013 before 2012
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
http://bfl.ptz.ro/
Cost: 149 USD
Bitcoin at 20 dollars in 2012 where it should be
7.5 BTC
Shipping: 2013/05/18
Delivery: 2013/05/25
BULL!
Reality
Ordered: 2012/06/18
Shipping: 2013/05/18
Delivery: 2013/05/25

What witchcraft is this to say BFL can deliver in 1 week in your lalalalaland

The time value of money
7.5 BTC @ 100 dollars in current value non-refundable in this case you got delivery
Assumes rest is fine
213.48 USD - 750 dollars
Negative $536.72 keep mining

BFL does not deliver in a week using
Shipping: 2013/05/18
Delivery: 2013/05/25
Is trolling

Dreaming about those Jalapeno you need to access the Silk Road more

Bought IPO ASICminer 0.1
Dividend 0.3 300% Return
Sold at 3.5 3400% Return
3.5 BTC = 350 Dollars a Share
Bought ASICminer at IPO instead of BFL Jalapeno
75 Shares 7.5/0.1
75*0.3 = 22.5 BTC Dividends
Sold 75 Shares @ 3.5
75 * 3.5 = 262.5 BTC
Gross Profit 285 BTC Less 7.5 BTC
Net Profit 277.5 BTC
277.5 BTC @ 100 = $27,750

So, get your facts straight  

[1713994811]

1713994811

[1713994811]

1713994811

[Mabsark]

A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Mabsark, you're a funny guy. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares at 3.4 BTC each. Your calculations would be correct if the case was that BFL was sending the order in a week from ordering, if you were to order today you think that you will get your order in 6 months? I ordered a single from BFL almost a year ago and I still have nothing. ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

There's no evidence whatsoever that AM will have chips better than BitFury. That's just pure hype with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

And yes, I know you can't buy a BFL and get in within a week. I've stated numerous times now that that's the reason why AM is so overpriced. Use your brain for 1 minute and think about the consequences of being able to buy an ASIC miner off the shelf from BFL or anyone else for that matter.

It's blatantly obvious that under such circumstances, AM will not sell as much hardware and it won't be able to sell that hardware for ridiculous prices, which means less income from hardware sales.

If you could buy a BFL off the shelf right now, how much would you pay for an AM USB miner?

But you can't.  And you won't be able to for at least 3 months, likely 4.  And by that time difficulty will be 10-15X what it is now.  ASICMiner is filling a niche.  Yes, it is a temporary advantage, but it will continue to exist for a while yet.

That's what I've been saying all along and that's precisely why AM is overpriced. My argument is not that BFL is the greatest or that AM is the worst. My argument is simply that AM is overpriced basically because it has a monopoly.

[freedomno1]

A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Mabsark, you're a funny guy. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares at 3.4 BTC each. Your calculations would be correct if the case was that BFL was sending the order in a week from ordering, if you were to order today you think that you will get your order in 6 months? I ordered a single from BFL almost a year ago and I still have nothing. ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

There's no evidence whatsoever that AM will have chips better than BitFury. That's just pure hype with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

And yes, I know you can't buy a BFL and get in within a week. I've stated numerous times now that that's the reason why AM is so overpriced. Use your brain for 1 minute and think about the consequences of being able to buy an ASIC miner off the shelf from BFL or anyone else for that matter.

It's blatantly obvious that under such circumstances, AM will not sell as much hardware and it won't be able to sell that hardware for ridiculous prices, which means less income from hardware sales.

If you could buy a BFL off the shelf right now, how much would you pay for an AM USB miner?

But you can't.  And you won't be able to for at least 3 months, likely 4.  And by that time difficulty will be 10-15X what it is now.  ASICMiner is filling a niche.  Yes, it is a temporary advantage, but it will continue to exist for a while yet.

That's what I've been saying all along and that's precisely why AM is overpriced. My argument is not that BFL is the greatest or that AM is the worst. My argument is simply that AM is overpriced basically because it has a monopoly.

Concedes that but no competitors = valuations are ok
I mean even BASIC is at 2 BTC right now lol after the 1:10 split 0.2 but check those stats out if you think ASIC is overvalued

[notme]

A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Mabsark, you're a funny guy. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares at 3.4 BTC each. Your calculations would be correct if the case was that BFL was sending the order in a week from ordering, if you were to order today you think that you will get your order in 6 months? I ordered a single from BFL almost a year ago and I still have nothing. ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

There's no evidence whatsoever that AM will have chips better than BitFury. That's just pure hype with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

And yes, I know you can't buy a BFL and get in within a week. I've stated numerous times now that that's the reason why AM is so overpriced. Use your brain for 1 minute and think about the consequences of being able to buy an ASIC miner off the shelf from BFL or anyone else for that matter.

It's blatantly obvious that under such circumstances, AM will not sell as much hardware and it won't be able to sell that hardware for ridiculous prices, which means less income from hardware sales.

If you could buy a BFL off the shelf right now, how much would you pay for an AM USB miner?

But you can't.  And you won't be able to for at least 3 months, likely 4.  And by that time difficulty will be 10-15X what it is now.  ASICMiner is filling a niche.  Yes, it is a temporary advantage, but it will continue to exist for a while yet.

That's what I've been saying all along and that's precisely why AM is overpriced. My argument is not that BFL is the greatest or that AM is the worst. My argument is simply that AM is overpriced basically because it has a monopoly.

Right now it is not overvalued because there is no threat to the monopoly.  Once one appears, if prices don't fall it may be overvalued.

[Mabsark]

Your previous comment assumed delivery did you calculate if it was undelivered

That doesn't make sense. The Jalapeno was shipped on the day I specified according to the BFL shipping blog and I added an extra week to account for shipping time.

Using a value of 100 USD a bitcoin is outlandish last years values should be forced into your calculation using 20 dollars not 100 for all your calculations.

BFL devices are priced in USD not BTC, so it makes no difference what the price of bitcoin was last year.

In fact, the backlog demands you use last years values they won't deliver 2013 before 2012
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg360ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
http://bfl.ptz.ro/
Cost: 149 USD
Bitcoin at 20 dollars in 2012 where it should be
7.5 BTC
Shipping: 2013/05/18
Delivery: 2013/05/25
BULL!
Reality
Ordered: 2012/06/18
Shipping: 2013/05/18
Delivery: 2013/05/25

What witchcraft is this to say BFL can deliver in 1 week in your lalalalaland

Standard shipping within the same country usually takes a couple of days at most. AMC's Avalons were shipped from Hong Kong to the US in 1 day.

The time value of money
7.5 BTC @ 100 dollars in current value non-refundable in this case you got delivery
Assumes rest is fine
213.48 USD - 750 dollars
Negative $536.72 keep mining

BFL does not deliver in a week using
Shipping: 2013/05/18
Delivery: 2013/05/25
Is trolling

Dreaming about those Jalapeno you need to access the Silk Road more

Bought IPO ASICminer 0.1
Dividend 0.3 300% Return
Sold at 3.5 3400% Return
3.5 BTC = 350 Dollars a Share
Bought ASICminer at IPO instead of BFL Jalapeno
75 Shares 7.5/0.1
75*0.3 = 22.5 BTC Dividends
Sold 75 Shares @ 3.5
75 * 3.5 = 262.5 BTC
Gross Profit 285 BTC Less 7.5 BTC
Net Profit 277.5 BTC
277.5 BTC @ 100 = $27,750

So, get your facts straight  

Multiply the BFL number by 75 and you'll find that in a month from now, the BFLs would have earned at least 75 BTC more than the AM shares. Did you have a point or are just trying to reinforce mine?

A first day Jalapeno will have made more profit than an AM IPO share by the end of the month and you'd still have the Jalapeno, whereas you'd have to sell the AM share.

[Mabsark]

A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Mabsark, you're a funny guy. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares at 3.4 BTC each. Your calculations would be correct if the case was that BFL was sending the order in a week from ordering, if you were to order today you think that you will get your order in 6 months? I ordered a single from BFL almost a year ago and I still have nothing. ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

There's no evidence whatsoever that AM will have chips better than BitFury. That's just pure hype with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

And yes, I know you can't buy a BFL and get in within a week. I've stated numerous times now that that's the reason why AM is so overpriced. Use your brain for 1 minute and think about the consequences of being able to buy an ASIC miner off the shelf from BFL or anyone else for that matter.

It's blatantly obvious that under such circumstances, AM will not sell as much hardware and it won't be able to sell that hardware for ridiculous prices, which means less income from hardware sales.

If you could buy a BFL off the shelf right now, how much would you pay for an AM USB miner?

But you can't.  And you won't be able to for at least 3 months, likely 4.  And by that time difficulty will be 10-15X what it is now.  ASICMiner is filling a niche.  Yes, it is a temporary advantage, but it will continue to exist for a while yet.

That's what I've been saying all along and that's precisely why AM is overpriced. My argument is not that BFL is the greatest or that AM is the worst. My argument is simply that AM is overpriced basically because it has a monopoly.

Concedes that but no competitors = valuations are ok
I mean even BASIC is at 2 BTC right now lol after the 1:10 split 0.2 but check those stats out if you think ASIC is overvalued

I've said a few times that all mining stocks are overpriced at the moment.

[freedomno1]

Was saying that based on the delivery of orders the AM share is still a lot more profitable than the miner since the miner did not deliver the whole year  
If you had the miner after waiting a year then if the difficulty exceeds your 2500 T/H from the 1500 T/H current then it can still make money on current calculations.
Assuming that the unit exists in the first place  
And you calculated the loss of the time value of money
It needs proof of existence and delivery otherwise the AM share keeps winning perpetually till the darn thing delivers
I could also add BFL Chip credits as a rebate on that waiting too  
Add a 0.04 Btc per credit heck if were using 2012 you get double that still a currency loss though lol

That said a unit in 2013
Probably needs a difficulty calculation of 10000 T/H by the time it delivers
Assuming the growth of ASICmining

It's just BFL were talking about if we used Avalons not as bad at least they ship more than BFL
But then we need to worry about that wall of shares they are offering if we value the stock if it's the miners who cares

And well an overpriced stock holding network is more valuable than a PMB

[Entropy-uc]

Multiply the BFL number by 75 and you'll find that in a month from now, the BFLs would have earned at least 75 BTC more than the AM shares. Did you have a point or are just trying to reinforce mine?

A first day Jalapeno will have made more profit than an AM IPO share by the end of the month and you'd still have the Jalapeno, whereas you'd have to sell the AM share.

You really are smoking crack.

A Jalepeno cost 33 BTC if you ordered one early enough to expect delivery before the fall of this year.

Those lucky buyers will never get their 33 BTC back, let alone profit from the device.

[Mabsark]

A single person could assemble 10 Minirigs in an 8 hour working day. That's 150 Th/s in a month.

Mabsark, you're a funny guy. No one is forcing you to buy ASICMINER shares at 3.4 BTC each. Your calculations would be correct if the case was that BFL was sending the order in a week from ordering, if you were to order today you think that you will get your order in 6 months? I ordered a single from BFL almost a year ago and I still have nothing. ASICMINER will have chips that will be superior to Bitfury before they start shipping and I don't believe that Kncminer will actually deliver 28 nm chips.

There's no evidence whatsoever that AM will have chips better than BitFury. That's just pure hype with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

And yes, I know you can't buy a BFL and get in within a week. I've stated numerous times now that that's the reason why AM is so overpriced. Use your brain for 1 minute and think about the consequences of being able to buy an ASIC miner off the shelf from BFL or anyone else for that matter.

It's blatantly obvious that under such circumstances, AM will not sell as much hardware and it won't be able to sell that hardware for ridiculous prices, which means less income from hardware sales.

If you could buy a BFL off the shelf right now, how much would you pay for an AM USB miner?

But you can't.  And you won't be able to for at least 3 months, likely 4.  And by that time difficulty will be 10-15X what it is now.  ASICMiner is filling a niche.  Yes, it is a temporary advantage, but it will continue to exist for a while yet.

That's what I've been saying all along and that's precisely why AM is overpriced. My argument is not that BFL is the greatest or that AM is the worst. My argument is simply that AM is overpriced basically because it has a monopoly.

Right now it is not overvalued because there is no threat to the monopoly.  Once one appears, if prices don't fall it may be overvalued.

There is a threat to the monopoly though. It's there for everyone to see, inching its way closer and closer. Anyone looking to invest, rather than speculate, needs to take these things into account.

[Lohoris]

Would you all PLEASE STOP FEEDING THE FUCKING TROLL?

This thread has gone to shit again due to you replying to him. Just ignore him and keep on speculating on real stuff.
For fuck's sake that's one of the oldest Internet techniques to fuck up a discussion, and you are all falling to it!
Push that fucking ignore button and go on!

[Mabsark]

Was saying that based on the delivery of orders the AM share is still a lot more profitable than the miner since the miner did not deliver the whole year  

And yet, the Jalapeno after being delivered a year later, will still have made more profit a month from now. That's all that needs to be said really.

[Mabsark]

Multiply the BFL number by 75 and you'll find that in a month from now, the BFLs would have earned at least 75 BTC more than the AM shares. Did you have a point or are just trying to reinforce mine?

A first day Jalapeno will have made more profit than an AM IPO share by the end of the month and you'd still have the Jalapeno, whereas you'd have to sell the AM share.

You really are smoking crack.

A Jalepeno cost 33 BTC if you ordered one early enough to expect delivery before the fall of this year.

Those lucky buyers will never get their 33 BTC back, let alone profit from the device.

BFL devices are priced in USD not BTC. The Jalapeno cost 149 USD not 33 BTC. You're agrument is completely irrelevant.

[Entropy-uc]

Multiply the BFL number by 75 and you'll find that in a month from now, the BFLs would have earned at least 75 BTC more than the AM shares. Did you have a point or are just trying to reinforce mine?

A first day Jalapeno will have made more profit than an AM IPO share by the end of the month and you'd still have the Jalapeno, whereas you'd have to sell the AM share.

You really are smoking crack.

A Jalepeno cost 33 BTC if you ordered one early enough to expect delivery before the fall of this year.

Those lucky buyers will never get their 33 BTC back, let alone profit from the device.

BFL devices are priced in USD not BTC. The Jalapeno cost 149 USD not 33 BTC. You're agrument is completely irrelevant.

Only to people without money.  Like those that invested in BFL.

[Mabsark]

Would you all PLEASE STOP FEEDING THE FUCKING TROLL?

This thread has gone to shit again due to you replying to him. Just ignore him and keep on speculating on real stuff.
For fuck's sake that's one of the oldest Internet techniques to fuck up a discussion, and you are all falling to it!
Push that fucking ignore button and go on!

I'm not trolling, so disregard this person who clearly does not know what trolling is. I'm providing my opinion of the future of AM - that both mining income and hardware sales income will decrease once there is competition on the shelves and that AM is overpriced.

Apparently, some people think replying to peoples comments with maths and facts is trolling simply because they hold a different opinion.

Ask yourself why these people are calling me a troll when all I'm doing is providing facts based on the maths and looking at the problems which AM has to tackle in the near future. The answer is obvious. These people don't want you making informed decisions.

[Eric Muyser]

Would you all PLEASE STOP FEEDING THE FUCKING TROLL?

This thread has gone to shit again due to you replying to him. Just ignore him and keep on speculating on real stuff.
For fuck's sake that's one of the oldest Internet techniques to fuck up a discussion, and you are all falling to it!
Push that fucking ignore button and go on!

I'm not trolling, so disregard this person who clearly does not know what trolling is. I'm providing my opinion of the future of AM - that both mining income and hardware sales income will decrease once there is competition on the shelves and that AM is overpriced.

Apparently, some people thing think replying to peoples comments with maths and facts is trolling simply because they hold a different opinion.

Ask yourself why these people are calling me a troll when all I'm doing is providing facts based on the maths and looking at the problems which AM has to tackle in the near future. The answer is obvious. These people don't want you making informed decisions.

You've informed everyone. People can now make an informed decision. No need to continue guys.

[Mabsark]

Would you all PLEASE STOP FEEDING THE FUCKING TROLL?

This thread has gone to shit again due to you replying to him. Just ignore him and keep on speculating on real stuff.
For fuck's sake that's one of the oldest Internet techniques to fuck up a discussion, and you are all falling to it!
Push that fucking ignore button and go on!

I'm not trolling, so disregard this person who clearly does not know what trolling is. I'm providing my opinion of the future of AM - that both mining income and hardware sales income will decrease once there is competition on the shelves and that AM is overpriced.

Apparently, some people thing think replying to peoples comments with maths and facts is trolling simply because they hold a different opinion.

Ask yourself why these people are calling me a troll when all I'm doing is providing facts based on the maths and looking at the problems which AM has to tackle in the near future. The answer is obvious. These people don't want you making informed decisions.

You've informed everyone. People can now make an informed decision. No need to continue guys.

There's no need for anyone to post anything here. People do so because they want to. If people reply to my comments, I'll reply back to most of them. If I see a comment I want to reply to, I will do so. You do not get to tell people what they can or can't post. It does not matter whether you like what they've got to say or not.

My posts have been bang on topic, which is all that really matters. If you want to ignore what I have to say, then do so. Nobody is forcing you to reply to me.

[hargax]

I don't wanna bring bad news, but I expect a significant drop of ASICMINER-PT in 48 hours. Hopefully we will not see 2.8.

Welp, looks like you were wrong. Now there's a surprise.

[velacreations]

guys, seriously, why do we have to keep gong over the same bullshit stuff from Mabsark ?  He knows he's full of shit.  We know he's full of shit.

Just click the ignore button!

[velacreations]

FC will give us an update in the coming days, and the share price will rise on that news.

Here's what's coming: new blades go on sale, USB miner sales pick up, hash rate increasing

Dividends will be increasing

[Vycid]

Hey all,

I'm still buying about 7 more ASICMiner-PT put options.

Strike: 2.3 BTC
Exp: ~90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

(again, I am buying puts, you would need to write them)

BTCT please. If you decide to list, make sure to send me a PM.

Cheers,

Vycid