ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[therustytrombone]

Hey folks, I hate to have to sell at an obvious bottom, but I'm kind of forced to -- so I'm auctioning off my lot of 10 direct AM shares:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=663313.0

There's less than 12 hours left on the auction.  Thanks

[1713435771]

1713435771

[1713435771]

1713435771

[1713435771]

1713435771

[1713435771]

1713435771

[dnaleor]

i'm not following this stock closely (because my investmen,t is low). Do you guys have any prediction/ETA on dividents?

[KarmaShark]

i'm not following this stock closely (because my investmen,t is low). Do you guys have any prediction/ETA on dividents?

There is not much information available to the public regarding the commencement of dividends for Gen3. The last update from FC on June 5th stated that it would take 1-1.5 months to sell out the current batch. It is believed that after this batch is sold the company will become cash-flow positive, a requirement for dividends to start once more.


Everything else is speculation. There is a new set of shareholder questions that were submitted to FriedCat on July 1st. When those questions get answered is anyone's guess, however that should bring clarity to your question as it is on everyone's mind currently.

[dnaleor]

i'm not following this stock closely (because my investmen,t is low). Do you guys have any prediction/ETA on dividents?

There is not much information available to the public regarding the commencement of dividends for Gen3. The last update from FC on June 5th stated that it would take 1-1.5 months to sell out the current batch. It is believed that after this batch is sold the company will become cash-flow positive, a requirement for dividends to start once more.


Everything else is speculation. There is a new set of shareholder questions that were submitted to FriedCat on July 1st. When those questions get answered is anyone's guess, however that should bring clarity to your question as it is on everyone's mind currently.

ok, thanks...

I should have just sold my shares at 0.8 BTC when I had the chance... Too greedy... (time after time)

[freedomno1]

It's time to revive this thing

Update

1. Due to the relatively lower interest from individual miners as well as OEM producers, the self mining has re-started from middle of July. We had gain access of cheap electricity and high power capacity. We hope to regain the average hashrate percentage similar to 2013 with this generation of chips.

2. The price rockminer gets is not the sales price. It's the premium of franchising. We gain the part of profits after the devices begin to generate revenue like the franchising of devices. The sales price of chips stay a relatively high margin because our option of building our own devices and sell/deploy is always wide open.

3. We announce the sales of our own devices. We would arrange an offline meeting in Shenzhen first to share more information. We will post the English version of it on the meetup sub-board.

Documented history of AM's hashrate for the people who forget those things or weren't around back then.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AkPdXsQFT-vIdHRVUjQ5Ql9BQWR6OENLMkhyUktUblE#gid=9

Upcoming interview with Friedcat:
http://www.bitell.com/t/2026

Date: 13:00-18:00 Beijing time. 2nd August, 2014.

Place: Qidian Coffe, 5th floor A3, Digital Tech Park, 7 7th South Gaoxin Road, Nanshan, Shenzhen (深圳市南山区高新南七道7号数字技术园A3栋5楼起点咖啡)

Topic: The announcement of AM sales of new devices, as well as other aspects on Bitcoin mining.

For Chinese version please check (http://weibo.com/5195261989/BfaCBwCvU?type=repost#_rnd1406615465120)

The forum id (phasebird) will be responsible for questions on this meetup. The sales to regions outside China is also in charge of (phasebird).

To dear shareholders:

We indeed had a hard time starting from the end of 2013. The BE200 performance was inferior than expected, and our prediction for the capacity of OEM producers and the individual mining market was a big miss. However, we had not stopped our work on designing our own products and finding proper farms after our chips passed the tests. Meantime we had tried many cooperations with OEMs (premium+balance payment, chip franchising) but the overall improvement on volume was not significant. Now the new hardware solution matures and we got the resources on deploying, we can turn the newly produced chips to the market where the highest margin is.

There are some guesses about our integrity also starting from the end of 2013. We would like to emphasize the following:

1. There are no umbrella companies from ASICMiner. There are indeed some unsolved conflict of interests on someone investing both on ASICMiner and other chip manufacturers, but ASICMiner did not offer any information other than what it is supposed to do, for example, holding board member meetings.

2. ASICMiner has not participated in its share market in any means.

Wake up ^_^

Also No confirmed AM Mining address but a few unknown ID's to certain bitcoin addresses
https://data.bitcoinity.org/bitcoin/hashrate/6m?c=m&r=week&t=a

https://blockchain.info/pools
https://blockchain.info/pools?timespan=24hrs



With all the bullish sentiment included  

[ensurance982]

Those are big words! What do you think:

- Will FC be able to keep his promise?
- What is the relative hash rate he is aiming at (2013 was a long year, and we've seen like 0%-33% hash rate by AM)

[freedomno1]

Those are big words! What do you think:

- Will FC be able to keep his promise?
- What is the relative hash rate he is aiming at (2013 was a long year, and we've seen like 0%-33% hash rate by AM)

Great questions but if its at least 10% to 20% that is a very high hashrate
At present there are a few unknown solo mining addresses which vary from 1 to 5%
If the percentage they occupy grows larger then its already a significant amount of Bitcoins that will start coming in when the dividends restart, still its the most news we had in a while and we all know AM has a lot of chips that they can turn into mining units.

The announcement they will start building more miners as well means that the hashrate and percentage of the network will not be small.
Can check out the Dogie Guide
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=456691.msg5035154#msg5035154

[ensurance982]

...
At present there are a few unknown solo mining addresses which vary from 1 to 5%
...

But do you think those are separate AM farms (does it make sense to run them on different addresses, or do you believe one of them is AM?)
If those are franchisees, I don't think they will be doing solo mining. You have to get a continuous income in order to forward your proceeds to AM, franchisees won't solo-mine!

[freedomno1]

...
At present there are a few unknown solo mining addresses which vary from 1 to 5%
...

But do you think those are separate AM farms (does it make sense to run them on different addresses, or do you believe one of them is AM?)
If those are franchisees, I don't think they will be doing solo mining. You have to get a continuous income in order to forward your proceeds to AM, franchisees won't solo-mine!

I can't speak for Bitgarden but I do know that rockxie does mine a little bit not sure if its solo or not though although they could be pooling with AM but probably not so they can figure out their distributions.

It would explain 2 of the 3 mysterious addresses if that was true.
Some evidence for that was in their financial report yesterday
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BwVxGR-76wFeeVplZ3YyeGFxWkU/edit

Under the cash flow guarantee at the bottom of page 3 1000 miners by the end of July
It could solo or pool the others may do the same.

Anyways bets on anyone

I thought about making this more fun I remembered a photo to Friedcats Golden ticket so I made a bet for everyone ^_^
Havelocks AM1 Share price will reach 1 BTC by October 1st 2014
Seems like a fair bet on Friedcat delivering his hashrate by that time if there are any takers put a bet on Yes or NO

___________

Asicminer Over 1 BTC by October 2014Options: Yes | No

[Caesium]

I thought about making this more fun I remembered a photo to Friedcats Golden ticket so I made a bet for everyone ^_^
Havelocks AM1 Share price will reach 1 BTC by October 1st 2014
Seems like a fair bet on Friedcat delivering his hashrate by that time if there are any takers put a bet on Yes or NO

Bid price? Ask price? Any trade made before 1st October being at or over 1.00000000? Need to be more specific.

[freedomno1]

I thought about making this more fun I remembered a photo to Friedcats Golden ticket so I made a bet for everyone ^_^
Havelocks AM1 Share price will reach 1 BTC by October 1st 2014
Seems like a fair bet on Friedcat delivering his hashrate by that time if there are any takers put a bet on Yes or NO

Bid price? Ask price? Any trade made before 1st October being at or over 1.00000000? Need to be more specific.

In the decision logic and bet description

Describes the bet - the host has the ability to edit this at any time

Bet Description

At the time of this writing on July 29 a whole Asicminer share is worth 0.24 Bitcoin
This Bet will resolve as a yes if Asicminer is valued at over 1 BTC at anytime before December 31st, 2014
Mumble October 1st 2014 was originally thinking December but changed mind hash is pretty quick.
___

This is how the host will determine the outcome, and the sources (if applicable) they will use. In case of decision disputes, a BetMoose moderator will use only this field to arbitrate. The host cannot edit this.

Decision Logic

This will be based off the Havelock trading price of AM 1 and will be closed if the condition is met by October 1st, 2014
https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1

So hits 1 BTC at any time before October 1st 2014
___

Just noticed its probably because I put the bet below the Giant Friedcat ticket ^_^

___________

Asicminer Over 1 BTC by October 2014Options: Yes | No

[ensurance982]

Awaiting the people who theorize that the recent drop of the BTC price is caused by Friedcat selling the first coins the new datacenters mined in order to order more chips!

[ensurance982]

Havelock seems silent, again. I guess people are waiting for the Salon FC promised. I'm also curious to see whether there'll be a rebound back to 0.2 BTC...

[Mabsark]

Havelock seems silent, again. I guess people are waiting for the Salon FC promised. I'm also curious to see whether there'll be a rebound back to 0.2 BTC...

It passed that price hours ago. You're looking at a cached version.

[ensurance982]

Havelock seems silent, again. I guess people are waiting for the Salon FC promised. I'm also curious to see whether there'll be a rebound back to 0.2 BTC...

It passed that price hours ago. You're looking at a cached version.

Nah, I mean a rebound back down to 0.2. I know it's at 0.298 at the moment. But usually after some time, there's some correction that brings the price down a bit. I wonder if that's going to happen now again or if we remain on this level until FC's salon!

[JoTheKhan]

Havelock seems silent, again. I guess people are waiting for the Salon FC promised. I'm also curious to see whether there'll be a rebound back to 0.2 BTC...

It passed that price hours ago. You're looking at a cached version.

Nah, I mean a rebound back down to 0.2. I know it's at 0.298 at the moment. But usually after some time, there's some correction that brings the price down a bit. I wonder if that's going to happen now again or if we remain on this level until FC's salon!

Probably won't go down too much until after the 2nd. No news after the 2nd then it will go down a lot.

[freedomno1]

Havelock seems silent, again. I guess people are waiting for the Salon FC promised. I'm also curious to see whether there'll be a rebound back to 0.2 BTC...

It passed that price hours ago. You're looking at a cached version.

Nah, I mean a rebound back down to 0.2. I know it's at 0.298 at the moment. But usually after some time, there's some correction that brings the price down a bit. I wonder if that's going to happen now again or if we remain on this level until FC's salon!

Probably won't go down too much until after the 2nd. No news after the 2nd then it will go down a lot.

Makes sense Friedcat announced press conferences that will clarify this information it's a good time to ask a list of questions since we have a guaranteed interview.

[tsm13]

here is my speculation

FC will announce during the conference

- G4 chip, 28nm. He has already made some mention of it already, so it make sense to give an update. How far will that update go, who knows..think exahash
- DataTank will house the AM mining farm for current mining. FC mentioned cheap electricity was found, this is what DataTank were promising

Oh and vote yes with my amazing spending power of 0.01 :-)

[freedomno1]

here is my speculation

FC will announce during the conference

- G4 chip, 28nm. He has already made some mention of it already, so it make sense to give an update. How far will that update go, who knows..think exahash
- DataTank will house the AM mining farm for current mining. FC mentioned cheap electricity was found, this is what DataTank were promising

Oh and vote yes with my amazing spending power of 0.01 :-)

I think it will be an announcement of the BE200 Chips from his self mine claim, an announcement of his Gen 4 Chips and Fabrications, reveal his pool mining address and reveal the hashrate in his new pool farm.

Perhaps he will announce that he will work together with the franchisees to make new firmware together or his open source project will be moved up to the next generation/current generation chips.

[ensurance982]

I think he will first of all publish a new big miner that's using the BE200. Maybe also retail miners for smaller customers, but I think he'll go big. He will talk about future plans of his mining farms - maybe with DataTank immersion cooling in areas with cheap electricity. I guess he may also offer mining capacities. And he may have a nice treat for the shareholders - information on the current state of self-mining and franchised mining (capacities and rollout times)