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Author Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread  (Read 808617 times)
funkymunky
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September 19, 2014, 02:34:07 PM
 #5021

Could you imagine if that was the case  Grin

https://blockchain.info/address/3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8

I'm still pretty sure this is the address to look out for it has been receiving 300-1000btc per day for at least two weeks back from other AM addresses

Today it received 6000btc so far

wow[...]

im definitely not saying this is the div payout address...just a wallet most likely owned by AM that has alot of BTC flowing thru it daily

New post to highlight significance.  Funds moved out of original (old solo) mining address to https://blockchain.info/address/1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh.  

This address in turn links to many of the other addresses mentioned through a ~500 BTC  transaction to https://blockchain.info/address/16V3hoVfbQmpQQpCSkAirjVHGfSFoDFSbW (to sign these tx's, FC would have to hold the private keys to all inputs), including, most notably:

https://blockchain.info/address/19iVyH1qUxgywY8LJSbpV4VavjZmyuEyxV
https://blockchain.info/address/3MkwFfGNQDve7vz1z6gUDVxkuQpcSV3Mz8
https://blockchain.info/address/13p5iQkqBEVgKmPeJqEL2LBRS44PjX1dZL
https://blockchain.info/address/1KryFUt9tXHvaoCYTNPbqpWPJKQ717YmL5

In addition, these link through 13p5iQkqBEVgKmPeJqEL2LBRS44PjX1dZL via https://blockchain.info/tx/8c958ec1993b9b64442db8e591746a5f93ed0787921df6627ba86474e9576bfa
https://blockchain.info/tx/e3fd553c14699ec480c588c963c22515d869fed59a8cc2aaecb30e84ab4be30e
https://blockchain.info/tx/3426ad6a3be780b008b0d8f392d4d62fe098271f1f23de38b483655ef7086273
!!


https://blockchain.info/address/12WRnQR85ZUT7dhmaHBNL5dde2QLYieW6v
https://blockchain.info/address/1B9KrM7bjhJ42qJSWr1KJrNTAP1SNGMpJu


The transactions

I'd seen these addresses a number of times before and have mentioned them in this forum, but the tx that definitively links them is when the funds were sent from 1HtUGfbDcMzTeHWx2Dbgnhc6kYnj1Hp24i (AM's old solomining address which has been receiving the BTCGuild output) to 1ERszMSERwHNR9Xty73KZXpsg1jjBXWcHh earlier this morning.

Also, in case anyone's looking (I'm out of BTC after buying AM shares earlier in the night after the aforementioned tx) - there's an arb opp to sell MINE/SELL pairs back to twentyseventy for BDD at the 0.01051/0.0055 level.

 Wink

So either those are AM wallets or friedcat transferred a bulk share of AM's books to an exchange to temporarily crash the BTC-USD price and allow potential buyers to buy tubes/shares before using the fiat to buy back in at a BTC profit (which, granted, would be pretty far-fetched, extremely risky, and would make shareholders very uncomfortable)
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trek27
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September 19, 2014, 04:00:56 PM
 #5022

I'm a bit cautious about AM having large btc reserve:
a) on the 'saloon' FC talked about negative balances, whatever he meant it's reasonable to assume AM hadn't a lot of btc in mid-July.
b) since then the whole network mined around 250k,
c) to mine ~60k would require almost 25%
Not viable.

Of course FC could have been engaged in speculative and highly rewarding transactions.  Wink

 
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September 19, 2014, 05:10:47 PM
 #5023

I'm a bit cautious about AM having large btc reserve:
a) on the 'saloon' FC talked about negative balances, whatever he meant it's reasonable to assume AM hadn't a lot of btc in mid-July.
b) since then the whole network mined around 250k,
c) to mine ~60k would require almost 25%
Not viable.

Of course FC could have been engaged in speculative and highly rewarding transactions.  Wink

 

You're ignoring the BTC income from selling chips and miners.
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September 19, 2014, 05:50:20 PM
 #5024



You're ignoring the BTC income from selling chips and miners.

Just trying to stir some discussion in this thread  Smiley.

Yes, hopefully, miners (chips) are finding buyers. Good funding for gen4 seems to be crucial - competition is announcing new solutions (though, rests to see if realistic). Time-frame for really successful gen4 deployment seems to shorten.    
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September 19, 2014, 06:00:37 PM
 #5025



You're ignoring the BTC income from selling chips and miners.

Just trying to stir some discussion in this thread  Smiley.

Yes, hopefully, miners (chips) are finding buyers. Good funding for gen4 seems to be crucial - competition is announcing new solutions (though, rests to see if realistic). Time-frame for really successful gen4 deployment seems to be shortening.    

There are also only ~5k BTC between $100 increments on the bid side at any given time.  You wouldn't have to dump the whole purse to create a massive impact.  

Why?  If you're trying to push the price down, you'd get a whole hell of a lot of help from margin calls along the way.  Imagine if the US Federal Reserve, now that its bought up all the MBS assets it wants, reestablished the market and pegged it to treasuries, allowed investors to speculate on the price, and then ended up anonymously bullying the bonds through wave after wave of margin calls...wouldn't be too different, as ASICMINER (acting as a presumably significant part of the network) literally performs the exact same money-printing function for what is currently an inflationary currency.
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September 19, 2014, 06:16:48 PM
 #5026



You're ignoring the BTC income from selling chips and miners.

Just trying to stir some discussion in this thread  Smiley.

Yes, hopefully, miners (chips) are finding buyers. Good funding for gen4 seems to be crucial - competition is announcing new solutions (though, rests to see if realistic). Time-frame for really successful gen4 deployment seems to shorten.    

AM sold enough chips in less than a month in April to pay for gen 4 but used the money to fund the 60 Ph/s worth of gen 3 chips as gen 4 wasn't ready then. Given the months of chip sales, Tube sales and self-mining since then, AM likely acquired enough funding for gen 4 long ago. They just have to make sure it's free of major problems and get it out the door as soon as possible.
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September 19, 2014, 06:21:41 PM
Last edit: September 19, 2014, 06:47:32 PM by trek27
 #5027

There are also only ~5k BTC between $100 increments on the bid side at any given time.  You wouldn't have to dump the whole purse to create a massive impact.  

Why?  If you're trying to push the price down, you'd get a whole hell of a lot of help from margin calls along the way.  Imagine if the US Federal Reserve, now that its bought up all the MBS assets it wants, reestablished the market and pegged it to treasuries, allowed investors to speculate on the price, and then ended up anonymously bullying the bonds through wave after wave of margin calls...wouldn't be too different, as ASICMINER (acting as a presumably significant part of the network) literally performs the exact same money-printing function for what is currently an inflationary currency.

Shallowness of btc exchanges is a real issue and large players are surely trying to ride it. Also, big industrial mining operations are only adding to the downside pressure.
Another question is if AM is engaging in such speculative endeavors. Frankly, though AM could profit from btc price weekness, I would be extremely surprised  Shocked finding this being the case.

 
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September 19, 2014, 06:43:52 PM
 #5028

Good funding for gen4 seems to be crucial - competition is announcing new solutions (though, rests to see if realistic). Time-frame for really successful gen4 deployment seems to shorten.    

AM sold enough chips in less than a month in April to pay for gen 4 but used the money to fund the 60 Ph/s worth of gen 3 chips as gen 4 wasn't ready then. Given the months of chip sales, Tube sales and self-mining since then, AM likely acquired enough funding for gen 4 long ago. They just have to make sure it's free of major problems and get it out the door as soon as possible.

Let's hope, performance is going to be at least as planned.
Bonam
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September 20, 2014, 06:06:02 AM
 #5029

AM sold enough chips in less than a month in April to pay for gen 4 but used the money to fund the 60 Ph/s worth of gen 3 chips as gen 4 wasn't ready then. Given the months of chip sales, Tube sales and self-mining since then, AM likely acquired enough funding for gen 4 long ago. They just have to make sure it's free of major problems and get it out the door as soon as possible.

So how much of this 60 Ph/s has actually been deployed?
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September 20, 2014, 11:47:06 AM
 #5030

AM sold enough chips in less than a month in April to pay for gen 4 but used the money to fund the 60 Ph/s worth of gen 3 chips as gen 4 wasn't ready then. Given the months of chip sales, Tube sales and self-mining since then, AM likely acquired enough funding for gen 4 long ago. They just have to make sure it's free of major problems and get it out the door as soon as possible.

So how much of this 60 Ph/s has actually been deployed?

No one has any idea besides friedcat...it is a mystery!  I would hope they had a lot already hashing since the prices are low and the BE200 chips are not very efficient.
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September 20, 2014, 11:54:26 AM
 #5031

AM sold enough chips in less than a month in April to pay for gen 4 but used the money to fund the 60 Ph/s worth of gen 3 chips as gen 4 wasn't ready then. Given the months of chip sales, Tube sales and self-mining since then, AM likely acquired enough funding for gen 4 long ago. They just have to make sure it's free of major problems and get it out the door as soon as possible.

So how much of this 60 Ph/s has actually been deployed?

No one has any idea besides friedcat...it is a mystery!  I would hope they had a lot already hashing since the prices are low and the BE200 chips are not very efficient.


Im worried as to the effect of such low BTC prices on the power cost of the farms. It means they would have to sell more mined btc, hence less divs.  Undecided

edit: so im just hoping for the datatanks to immerge. ^^
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September 20, 2014, 12:10:16 PM
 #5032

AM sold enough chips in less than a month in April to pay for gen 4 but used the money to fund the 60 Ph/s worth of gen 3 chips as gen 4 wasn't ready then. Given the months of chip sales, Tube sales and self-mining since then, AM likely acquired enough funding for gen 4 long ago. They just have to make sure it's free of major problems and get it out the door as soon as possible.

So how much of this 60 Ph/s has actually been deployed?

No one has any idea besides friedcat...it is a mystery!  I would hope they had a lot already hashing since the prices are low and the BE200 chips are not very efficient.


Im worried as to the effect of such low BTC prices on the power cost of the farms. It means they would have to sell more mined btc, hence less divs.  Undecided

edit: so im just hoping for the datatanks to immerge. ^^

You are a wordsmith, haha
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September 20, 2014, 03:02:54 PM
 #5033

I guess asicminer is playing with the market as any other capable miner, there's a war going on between who is at the edge of profitability and so selling every coin mined to keep up with expenses and research and who is mining at a loss for now because he is expecting a rise in bitcoin price. Who is selling now is effectively putting a great pressure on competition, and if this goes on for a while the network hashrate may even drop.
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September 20, 2014, 04:21:44 PM
 #5034

I guess asicminer is playing with the market as any other capable miner, there's a war going on between who is at the edge of profitability and so selling every coin mined to keep up with expenses and research and who is mining at a loss for now because he is expecting a rise in bitcoin price. Who is selling now is effectively putting a great pressure on competition, and if this goes on for a while the network hashrate may even drop.



Quote
We have a plan to kill the competition..TM

Grin Cheesy
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September 20, 2014, 07:26:31 PM
 #5035


Quote
We have a plan to kill the competition..TM

Grin Cheesy

I'm still...I wouldn't put it past them to use their BTC reserves to drop the market price...
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September 20, 2014, 09:14:07 PM
 #5036

Lol, FC looks like Beavis in that photo.  Grin
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September 21, 2014, 01:29:53 PM
 #5037

For those keeping track, there is now a total of 31,867 AM shares being held on Havelock (28,668 shares to back AM1 and 3199 to back AM100).  That's an increase of 596 shares since August 3rd.  (It appears that 5600 AM100 shares have been converted to 56 AM1 shares.)  That's about 19.4% of the 163,962 AM shares that were sold to the public.

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."   - Henry Ford
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September 22, 2014, 11:41:30 AM
 #5038

is it worth investing in ASIC? want to read your opinions
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September 22, 2014, 12:08:52 PM
 #5039

is it worth investing in ASIC? want to read your opinions

No...if you mean ASIC as in mining gear....investing in ASIC Miner = maybe it is all a gamble.
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September 25, 2014, 04:32:43 AM
 #5040

is it worth investing in ASIC? want to read your opinions

No...if you mean ASIC as in mining gear....investing in ASIC Miner = maybe it is all a gamble.

Similar opinion difficulty spikes are starting to be not so dramatically high at least since July 12
If your a bit of a risk taker guess this recent period is better than March to June 29 lol
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

That said central mining does seem likely as more mining farms come on but would say its remotely possible to ROI this time around, economies of scale and what not.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/falling-bitcoin-price-is-the-perfect-storm-for-centralization-of-bitcoin-mining/

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