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Author Topic: My Most Insane Prediction of Bitcoin & Ethereum  (Read 678 times)
Wind_FURY
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June 15, 2018, 06:04:47 AM
 #41

I know but we are posting in the "speculation" subforum. Usability, adoption, security, and everything else important under the hood are thrown away. Only market capitalization matters. Hahaha.

the worst part is even if profit is the only thing that they care about still market cap doesn't matter!
for example for the past couple of days the market was red, or was it? look where the money is going. the pumpers don't just stop because price of some big altcoin was dropping. they cashed out a long time ago and now are pumping other coins. in fact the smaller the market cap the easier to pump
and that happens every day


It might not matter among the small altcoins, but holding the title of "the no.1 cryptocurrency in the world" in market capitalization does matter in my opinion, especially to those people who are only here to invest, trade and speculate.

Plus that picture of scamcoins is also a good example of how people throw everything out except the coins' value. Hahaha.


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June 15, 2018, 06:25:53 AM
 #42

...

It might not matter among the small altcoins, but holding the title of "the no.1 cryptocurrency in the world" in market capitalization does matter in my opinion, especially to those people who are only here to invest, trade and speculate.

Plus that picture of scamcoins is also a good example of how people throw everything out except the coins' value. Hahaha.

in my theory there are 3 different groups of people investing
1. the solid investors who analyzed everything and then brought their money in. these people invest in bitcoin not because it is #1 but because because they see the reality of it. for example if you go to Microsoft website, or Dell or previously Steam, .... or go to offline shops for instance in malls in Japan,... you can see bitcoin is accepted as a real currency as payment. but not other shitcoins even if their rank is #2 or whatever or even if their advertisers tell you how awesome they are!
2. the more risk taking investors. these will want profit so they go to altcoins. for them the ranking does not matter. profit is all that matters. this profit can be brought to them by #2 coin or #1700 coin.
3. the newbies. these form the bulk of the market and they are usually running around and putting their money in different places and let it sleep there for a long time. they basically make a bet and sometimes they win and sometimes they lose. for them, the ranking is everything. if a coin is #1, 2,... or top10 they will  get more excited  than a coin with rank #269 even if it can give them 10 times the profit.

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Wind_FURY
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June 15, 2018, 06:39:11 AM
 #43

I believe what made people become Bitcoin "investors" should not be as important. What should be of the greatest importance is to learn how Bitcoin works, the way it is designed, and why it makes more sense than the "fastest, most scalable altcoin in the world".

The OP is an example of a person who does not understand Bitcoin yet. If he did he would never dare say "Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin" as the no.1 coin by end of 2018.


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✔️DICE           
✔️BLACKJACK
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June 15, 2018, 06:54:37 AM
 #44

ranking should be based on: usability, adoption, security, innovation, technology, ... instead and in such ranking system ETH falls down out of at least top 10 coins!


I assume you see ETH is worse in usability, adoption, security, innovation, and technology.

Pray tell which are the top 10 cryptos in usability, adoption, security, innovation, and technology?
Honestly, are you really really really really sure that ETH fare worse in usability, adoption, security, innovation, and technology?
Really? Sure?
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June 15, 2018, 07:04:30 AM
 #45

I believe what made people become Bitcoin "investors" should not be as important. What should be of the greatest importance is to learn how Bitcoin works, the way it is designed, and why it makes more sense than the "fastest, most scalable altcoin in the world".

The OP is an example of a person who does not understand Bitcoin yet. If he did he would never dare say "Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin" as the no.1 coin by end of 2018.

Many people have a very common thought habit of assuming that a first-mover will forever be the #1, regardless of every other influencing factors.

Ethereum usage and adoption already exceeded usage and adoption of Bitcoin.
If we have a time machine to travel back to the past 5 years and someone from 5 years ago said Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in adoption and usage, you could probably be in disbelief too.

People like to say if it is not Bitcoin, then it is altcoin, much the same way as saying if this computer is not from IBM, then it is an altcomputer.
Yes, I agree that is a very silly statement.
Exactly the same way I feel whenever someone describe non-Bitcoin cryptos as altcoins.

Yeah, you may continue with your thought process that Bitcoin will forever be #1 no matter what the f*** happens to the world.
Whatever makes you feel comfy.
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June 15, 2018, 07:09:18 AM
 #46

in my theory there are 3 different groups of people investing
1. the solid investors who analyzed everything and then brought their money in. these people invest in bitcoin not because it is #1 but because because they see the reality of it. for example if you go to Microsoft website, or Dell or previously Steam, .... or go to offline shops for instance in malls in Japan,... you can see bitcoin is accepted as a real currency as payment. but not other shitcoins even if their rank is #2 or whatever or even if their advertisers tell you how awesome they are!
2. the more risk taking investors. these will want profit so they go to altcoins. for them the ranking does not matter. profit is all that matters. this profit can be brought to them by #2 coin or #1700 coin.
3. the newbies. these form the bulk of the market and they are usually running around and putting their money in different places and let it sleep there for a long time. they basically make a bet and sometimes they win and sometimes they lose. for them, the ranking is everything. if a coin is #1, 2,... or top10 they will  get more excited  than a coin with rank #269 even if it can give them 10 times the profit.

Your theory is very incomplete.

Bitcoin was made accepted not because it was the first, nor because it has futuristic tech.
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June 15, 2018, 07:18:24 AM
 #47

Hehe, there's nothing wrong to make our own prediction and assumption. Anything is possible in future, especially in this crazy world...
indeed the two coins are always booming price so when the price goes down you slightly do not believe because dipikiran you both prices will always rise when every second the price can change at any time can go up and down.

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June 15, 2018, 07:30:46 AM
 #48

ranking should be based on: usability, adoption, security, innovation, technology, ... instead and in such ranking system ETH falls down out of at least top 10 coins!


I assume you see ETH is worse in usability, adoption, security, innovation, and technology.

Pray tell which are the top 10 cryptos in usability, adoption, security, innovation, and technology?
Honestly, are you really really really really sure that ETH fare worse in usability, adoption, security, innovation, and technology?
Really? Sure?

for the past 3 years that ethereum existed the only usage that it had was smart contracts (something that bitcoin and at least 50 other altcoins also do and some of them do it a lot better). in these 3 years there has been thousands of smart contracts created each more useless than the last. people only buy ETH for speculation or to buy ICOs and gamble.
people also buy bitcoin for speculation but they also buy it because it is a decentralized money and also a secure store of value.
that is usability and adoption for you.

as for security, with the speed that ETH blockchain is growing the nodes will centralize to only a handful of nodes that can handle 1, 2, 10 TB  and growing fast. and that opens ups easy attack surfaces.
there has been a lot of hacks of the main client that the developing team releases and millions have been lost multiple times. latest of them have been the multisignature feature being buggy and $110 million was lost!
as for smart contracts (the only usage of ETH) it is easily exploitable. DAO is the biggest example which was not fixed but instead "rolled back" which also proved that ETH is not Immutable. the worst part is issues similar to DAO happened multiple times after that but there was no "roll back" for them and they were swept under the rug because the foundation never invested in those but they have invested in DAO! immutability may not mean anything to you but it is one of the fundamentals of blockchain technology and without it this technology means nothing.
that's security for you.

as for innovation and technology, all of the ideas that Vitalik used have been either proposed or discussed by bitcoin developers and put down because of the problems they imposed. there is nothing new about ethereum, there is just an interesting idea to allow such a platform for smart contracts, i admit that but with side chains on bitcoin this idea will exist for bitcoin in a much better, efficient and cheaper way!

Many people have a very common thought habit of assuming that a first-mover will forever be the #1, regardless of every other influencing factors.

not it had never have anything to do with being "first mover". and bitcoin is not at all the first mover. there have been other projects (altcoins if you will) before bitcoin was even created. they do not exist today but bitcoin does.

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Dorkie
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June 15, 2018, 08:17:13 AM
 #49

for the past 3 years that ethereum existed the only usage that it had was smart contracts (something that bitcoin and at least 50 other altcoins also do and some of them do it a lot better). in these 3 years there has been thousands of smart contracts created each more useless than the last. people only buy ETH for speculation or to buy ICOs and gamble.
people also buy bitcoin for speculation but they also buy it because it is a decentralized money and also a secure store of value.
that is usability and adoption for you.

as for security, with the speed that ETH blockchain is growing the nodes will centralize to only a handful of nodes that can handle 1, 2, 10 TB  and growing fast. and that opens ups easy attack surfaces.
there has been a lot of hacks of the main client that the developing team releases and millions have been lost multiple times. latest of them have been the multisignature feature being buggy and $110 million was lost!
as for smart contracts (the only usage of ETH) it is easily exploitable. DAO is the biggest example which was not fixed but instead "rolled back" which also proved that ETH is not Immutable. the worst part is issues similar to DAO happened multiple times after that but there was no "roll back" for them and they were swept under the rug because the foundation never invested in those but they have invested in DAO! immutability may not mean anything to you but it is one of the fundamentals of blockchain technology and without it this technology means nothing.
that's security for you.

as for innovation and technology, all of the ideas that Vitalik used have been either proposed or discussed by bitcoin developers and put down because of the problems they imposed. there is nothing new about ethereum, there is just an interesting idea to allow such a platform for smart contracts, i admit that but with side chains on bitcoin this idea will exist for bitcoin in a much better, efficient and cheaper way!

Many people have a very common thought habit of assuming that a first-mover will forever be the #1, regardless of every other influencing factors.

not it had never have anything to do with being "first mover". and bitcoin is not at all the first mover. there have been other projects (altcoins if you will) before bitcoin was even created. they do not exist today but bitcoin does.

I have the opinion that cryptocurrency tech like Bitcoin and Blockchain were first sold as something idealistic, i.e. decentralized, immutable, financial freedom/independence as in being your own banker, etc, in order to entice adoption, but as adoption increases, such tech will slowly morph into something totally opposite of what it was originally sold for, i.e. it will not be decentralized, it will not give you freedom/independence, etc.

So ultimately what will become the major global-scale mainstream cryptocurrency will depend entirely on who is behind the foundation.
Is it people like me and you?
Or is it people like TPTB?

Yeah, I agree Vitalik hardforked ETH was not to save the DAO victims, but because their own investment was at stake.
But then this world is very ugly.
Sometimes we cannot make decision based on what is most perfect, or what is best, but on whose power is behind such tech.

Bitcoin's persistent existence since 2009 was never a coincidence nor an accident.
It was not thanks to people like Vitalik, or Andreas, or Roger Ver, or Gavin, or etc Mr. Mister that promoted it regularly, that is not the human nature.
Human nature is such that if a 3rd-party tech is great, most likely you will copy its code, modify it, and promote it as your own brand, never the brand of a 3rd-party, and that's exactly what many groups and companies are doing today, i.e. developing their own blockchain.
However, if there is a group of techies, no matter how independent they appear to be, promoting a 3rd-party tech, something is amiss.
Have you ever asked yourself why "Satoshi" chose to be anonymous while people like Vitalik and Charlie Lee are walking free?
There is another reason why Bitcoin was sold as some tech developed by some anonymous guy.
No, nothing whatsoever to do with the risk of getting caught and prosecuted by the government, that's the garbage thought process sold to you.
If Bitcoin was started by average people like you and me, it would have died within 1 year after starting.

If you still sincerely believe that Bitcoin was created by a single Japanese guy to save the world and destroy governments and bankers, then you are still dreaming in the matrix.
Most likely what they sold to you is the exact opposite of what is real.
But of course this will slowly evolve over time.
What was once deregulated will be regulated.
What was once private will be non-private.
What was once decentralized will be centralized.
Before you know it, the world will turn out to be just the same.

People do not buy something just because this something is decentralized or a store of value.
Decentralized and store of value are just excuses to justify buying it, so you don't go around telling your friends you buy Bitcoin because of the money as if you are a greedy materialistic bastard, but instead you can strike up a smart conversation that it is because of decentralization and a store of value.
Nothing but lies that people like you keeping telling themselves everyday.
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June 16, 2018, 05:50:32 AM
 #50

I believe what made people become Bitcoin "investors" should not be as important. What should be of the greatest importance is to learn how Bitcoin works, the way it is designed, and why it makes more sense than the "fastest, most scalable altcoin in the world".

The OP is an example of a person who does not understand Bitcoin yet. If he did he would never dare say "Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin" as the no.1 coin by end of 2018.

Many people have a very common thought habit of assuming that a first-mover will forever be the #1, regardless of every other influencing factors.

But it is not only about being the "first mover" or "network effects" anymore, which are still very hard for the altcoins to surpass. It is also about long term development and design decisions that some Ethereum developers may have gotten wrong.

Quote
Ethereum usage and adoption already exceeded usage and adoption of Bitcoin.
If we have a time machine to travel back to the past 5 years and someone from 5 years ago said Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in adoption and usage, you could probably be in disbelief too.

What usage? Ethereum's use case as a platform for the issuance of ICO shitcoins?

Quote
People like to say if it is not Bitcoin, then it is altcoin, much the same way as saying if this computer is not from IBM, then it is an altcomputer.
Yes, I agree that is a very silly statement.
Exactly the same way I feel whenever someone describe non-Bitcoin cryptos as altcoins.

You are off the topic. But if Ethereum was "technically good" then no one would challenge your statement that "Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin" in market capitalization. But it's not.

Quote
Yeah, you may continue with your thought process that Bitcoin will forever be #1 no matter what the f*** happens to the world.
Whatever makes you feel comfy.

Bitcoin will become a global reserve asset in 10 years. Ethereum will become a centralized network with nodes run in data centers by that time.

Good design decisions will pay off.


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June 16, 2018, 05:52:52 AM
 #51

Looking like the insane prediction might have legs...

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June 16, 2018, 07:06:19 AM
 #52

6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.

Brag when it's time to brag...

This recent article at https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-decline-caused-by-hodlers-unprecedented-30-billion-sell-off-research/ just validated my point #6 that...

Quote
... new research from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis suggests that it was long-term investors, hands calloused from years of hodling though they may have been, who triggered the decline and then continued to sell into the dip — to the tune of $30 billion worth of bitcoin between Dec. 2017 and April 2018.
I don’t believe in any predictions because as much time I spent here in this forum, I found all the predictions became false and the facts were against them. I only rely on the ground reality and the ground reality shows us more dip in the coming days. You didn’t mention the time frame for $10000, because time is the most important factor in bitcoin investment.

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June 16, 2018, 09:24:25 AM
 #53

Quote
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.

In what time frame?


Ahh... forgotten to clarify this.

Time frame is "into the future", as in within your and my lifetime.
But I don’t want growth at the end of my life. I want recovery soon if not so then I will turn towards Altcoin. In my opinion these are the whales that are responsible for such dip in the price. Now I am optimistic about the raise in the price in the next month. The price is stuck between $6k and $7k and you are talking about $ 1 mil in the future.

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