My Most Insane Prediction of Bitcoin & Ethereum

[Wind_FURY]

Bump for review.

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.

That already was clear during the time of your post, and going to $15,000 was also expected. $20,000 was a surprise in my opinion.

3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.

In what time frame?

4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.

I agree with this sentiment, but it would not take several years. I believe the halving on 2020 will cause another climb to a new all time high.

5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.

Buy now while the price is under $10,000.

6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.

I believe most of them have already done it except for a few Bitcoin figures like Mircea Popescu, who will never sell. I could be mistaken.

7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.

8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.

No, that will not happen. Haha.

But let's revisit this topic on December 31, 2018.

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[Dorkie]

6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.

Brag when it's time to brag...

This recent article at https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-price-decline-caused-by-hodlers-unprecedented-30-billion-sell-off-research/ just validated my point #6 that...

... new research from blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis suggests that it was long-term investors, hands calloused from years of hodling though they may have been, who triggered the decline and then continued to sell into the dip — to the tune of $30 billion worth of bitcoin between Dec. 2017 and April 2018.

[Dorkie]

3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.

In what time frame?

Ahh... forgotten to clarify this.

Time frame is "into the future", as in within your and my lifetime.

[olumyd]

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.


Note:
You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".

Quite so much to take in at the moment, but if there's a flaw to your logic, is the fact that you aren't considering the possibilities of regulation and mainstream economic opportunities that may sway this reasoning. However, I do agree that bitcoin's rally beyond $10k USD is a little too comfortable.

[cutikanzilong]

My "Most Insane Prediction" is based on a few thesis: 1) Be a total contrarian to general assumption and expectation, and 2) Be totally beyond commonly accepted reason and logic, and yet remain rational.

So here goes...

This is the generally accepted one:
1. Bitcoin will reach USD10,000 and slightly beyond from now to early or mid of 2018.

This is the "Insane" one:
2. This rally to USD10,000 will be Bitcoin's final rally.
3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.
4. After reaching the USD10,000 level, Bitcoin will revisit the 2013 price pattern event whereby the price will start to decline lower and lower for several years.
5. Many will think reaching USD100,000 is a possibility too in the future, and proceed to sell their houses and cars to get into Bitcoin, and suffer losses or missed opportunities.
6. The top Bitcoin elite owners (all the way back in 2009/2010) that constitutes the most concentrated top Bitcoin holdings, start selling/cashing out to the ultimate bag holders that are late into the game.
7. Bitcoin will fall from the top #1 position by end of 2018.
8. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin to be the #1 in the same time period.


Note:
You may disagree all you like, but as I said, this is "My Most Insane Prediction".

everyone is free to live and dream as high as possible. But we do not know in the future Bitcoin will be how it is. For example at this time Bitcoin prices tend to decrease continuously and accompanied by altcoin also come down the price

[Dorkie]

Quite so much to take in at the moment, but if there's a flaw to your logic, is the fact that you aren't considering the possibilities of regulation and mainstream economic opportunities that may sway this reasoning. However, I do agree that bitcoin's rally beyond $10k USD is a little too comfortable.

Even in the very early days before most of today's newbies are into this, I already made comments elsewhere (not in bitcointalk forum, but in ccn.com, previously known as cryptocoinsnews.com) that regulation will be in place and that all major countries will adopt cryptocurrencies.

At that time, many people were insulting me for that because they said cryptocurrencies cannot be regulated and will never be regulated. But so far I was proven 100% correct on that. Indeed, regulatory framework is being set in place.

So, I have already factored in regulation into the picture. As a matter of fact, I also said in those comments of mine that regulation will actually help cryptocurrencies to reach mainstream adoption. And so far, I was proven correct too, at least from what the news are reporting, i.e. regulation will make it safe for institutions to join in, etc.  

[BitcoinNewbie15]

Quite so much to take in at the moment, but if there's a flaw to your logic, is the fact that you aren't considering the possibilities of regulation and mainstream economic opportunities that may sway this reasoning. However, I do agree that bitcoin's rally beyond $10k USD is a little too comfortable.

Even in the very early days before most of today's newbies are into this, I already made comments elsewhere (not in bitcointalk forum, but in ccn.com, previously known as cryptocoinsnews.com) that regulation will be in place and that all major countries will adopt cryptocurrencies.

At that time, many people were insulting me for that because they said cryptocurrencies cannot be regulated and will never be regulated. But so far I was proven 100% correct on that. Indeed, regulatory framework is being set in place.

So, I have already factored in regulation into the picture. As a matter of fact, I also said in those comments of mine that regulation will actually help cryptocurrencies to reach mainstream adoption. And so far, I was proven correct too, at least from what the news are reporting, i.e. regulation will make it safe for institutions to join in, etc.  

Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption. I wouldn't really call that one a prediction. Bitcoin goes through these periods of bubbles. This one won't be the last one, but the next one might... With Bitcoin being secure, immutable, and having a scarce and predictable supply, it too is obvious people will begin to store their wealth in it as volatility continues to decrease. The floodgates will be opened once an ETF is successfully listed and there is more regulatory clarity. It could get to a point where national governments purchase BTC to hoard it as part of their reserves.

[fabiorem]

Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption.

The only way that regulation can lead to increased adoption is to put limits in the exchanges. In that way, people would not panic sell, and would feel more safe when bitcoin goes down.

[enhu]

I saw a thread in the forum where someone also predicted BTC to $500K, that's the most insane prediction you could ever hear but I may not live that far whenever that happen. People may not afford BTC anymore and will shift to ETH and the alts.

Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption.

The only way that regulation can lead to increased adoption is to put limits in the exchanges. In that way, people would not panic sell, and would feel more safe when bitcoin goes down.

Limiting will also make those people back away from investing because most the reason why they get into crypto is because of profit too.

[Dorkie]

Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption. I wouldn't really call that one a prediction. Bitcoin goes through these periods of bubbles. This one won't be the last one, but the next one might... With Bitcoin being secure, immutable, and having a scarce and predictable supply, it too is obvious people will begin to store their wealth in it as volatility continues to decrease. The floodgates will be opened once an ETF is successfully listed and there is more regulatory clarity. It could get to a point where national governments purchase BTC to hoard it as part of their reserves.

My predictions were...
1. There will be regulation in place.
2. Regulation will increase adoption.
So please don't cherry pick my comments and insult me by saying "Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption."
You can see one side of the coin, but fail to see the other accompanying side.

And by the way, argue all you like, but I also said in my past comments that Bitcoin is a shitcoin. Yes, you may call me names and insult me for calling Bitcoin a shitcoin just as others insulted me for saying there will be regulation.

Someone in an article said Bitcoin will be killed by its hardforks. I said it similarly last year in other site. Too bad I cannot brag about this here because I didn't make my comments in this forum. But I know I was proven right about this too.

And to your comment that BTC will be purchased by governments, I don't think so.

[Idrisu]

I think this predictions has play out to some extent and I have tried to remain positive about the upwards movement of price of bitcoin but I think the reality is quite different.  The bearish market and conditions has dominated the market since the beginning of the year and I think bitcoin may fall from were it started from in July last year.

[fabiorem]

Limiting will also make those people back away from investing because most the reason why they get into crypto is because of profit too.

Not if the limit is only downwards.

[adaseb]

I think this predictions has play out to some extent and I have tried to remain positive about the upwards movement of price of bitcoin but I think the reality is quite different.  The bearish market and conditions has dominated the market since the beginning of the year and I think bitcoin may fall from were it started from in July last year.

Yes it looks like some points of his did play out.

However if Bitcoin crashes badly I don't think ETH will hold its value either or replace the #1 spot for market cap.

The fact of $100,000 or $1,000,000 per BTC was very far fetched at least in the next decade.

You really can't predict the top, so just sell a little every few weeks or months until you liquidate your position.

Because you will almost always sell too early or sell too late. Hence do it in parts.

[BitcoinNewbie15]

Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption. I wouldn't really call that one a prediction. Bitcoin goes through these periods of bubbles. This one won't be the last one, but the next one might... With Bitcoin being secure, immutable, and having a scarce and predictable supply, it too is obvious people will begin to store their wealth in it as volatility continues to decrease. The floodgates will be opened once an ETF is successfully listed and there is more regulatory clarity. It could get to a point where national governments purchase BTC to hoard it as part of their reserves.

My predictions were...
1. There will be regulation in place.
2. Regulation will increase adoption.

These two things are obvious. Regulation is only a matter of time. Everone knows this. Also, if adoption increases, price has to increase too.

So please don't cherry pick my comments and insult me by saying "Its obvious that regulation will increase adoption."
You can see one side of the coin, but fail to see the other accompanying side.

I wasn't insulting you, sorry you took it that way. I was just stating that it is glaringly obvious regulation will increase adoption.

And by the way, argue all you like, but I also said in my past comments that Bitcoin is a shitcoin. Yes, you may call me names and insult me for calling Bitcoin a shitcoin just as others insulted me for saying there will be regulation.

Bitcoin by definition cannot be a shitcoin. Shitcoins are Bitcoin clones that serve no purpose. Bitcoin cannot be a clone of its self, as Bitcoin is the Benchmark for all other coins. Therefore it cannot be a shitcoin. I don't know why others have insulted you in regards to regulation, regulation is a good thing.

Someone in an article said Bitcoin will be killed by its hardforks. I said it similarly last year in other site. Too bad I cannot brag about this here because I didn't make my comments in this forum. But I know I was proven right about this too.

How could you be proven right that Bitcoin will be killed by hardforks? Bitcoin is still alive. For you to be proven right Bitcoin would have had to be killed by the hard forks first.

And to your comment that BTC will be purchased by governments, I don't think so.

How come you don't think so? More people are adopting the idea that Bitcoin is a store of value/alternative to gold. If this becomes the case, and more of the wealthy store their money in Bitcoin, why wouldn't governments start buying it to increase/diversify their reserves?

[Piranha1]

Hehe, there's nothing wrong to make our own prediction and assumption. Anything is possible in future, especially in this crazy world...

Yes, you are right. Everyone of us have the right to speculate and it can't harm anybody here  . Even the so-called expert analyst can't even predict what would be the actual price of crypto in the future, that's what we put in our mind.

[Wind_FURY]

3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.

In what time frame?

Ahh... forgotten to clarify this.

Time frame is "into the future", as in within your and my lifetime.

But you also believe that Ethereum will "surpass" Bitcoin as the most valuable cryptocurrency in market capitalization. That is where your "prediction" will go wrong. Fundamentally Bitcoin is the better network than Ethereum in design and in development.

In my life time I might see Ethereum be the "no.1", but only for a while. Read this, https://hackernoon.com/the-ethereum-blockchain-size-has-exceeded-1tb-and-yes-its-an-issue-2b650b5f4f62?source=user_profile---------10-------------------&gi=7a2cd5e849ac

Ethereum will not last "within your and my lifetime".

[Herbert2020]

3. There will be no further rally to USD100,000, let alone USD1 mil, into the future.

In what time frame?

Ahh... forgotten to clarify this.

Time frame is "into the future", as in within your and my lifetime.

But you also believe that Ethereum will "surpass" Bitcoin as the most valuable cryptocurrency in market capitalization. That is where your "prediction" will go wrong. Fundamentally Bitcoin is the better network than Ethereum in design and in development.

In my life time I might see Ethereum be the "no.1", but only for a while. Read this, https://hackernoon.com/the-ethereum-blockchain-size-has-exceeded-1tb-and-yes-its-an-issue-2b650b5f4f62?source=user_profile---------10-------------------&gi=7a2cd5e849ac

Ethereum will not last "within your and my lifetime".

the meaning of "surpass" and being "no. 1" has changed a lot ever since ethereum was created. it was bent to satisfy the needs of their advertising team.
look at the ranking system for example it is purely based on market capitalization. and surprise surprise ETH has a huge supply to increase that number (mc=supply*price) and keep it that way.

ranking should be based on: usability, adoption, security, innovation, technology, ... instead and in such ranking system ETH falls down out of at least top 10 coins!

[Wind_FURY]

I know but we are posting in the "speculation" subforum. Usability, adoption, security, and everything else important under the hood are thrown away. Only market capitalization matters. Hahaha.

[Herbert2020]

I know but we are posting in the "speculation" subforum. Usability, adoption, security, and everything else important under the hood are thrown away. Only market capitalization matters. Hahaha.

the worst part is even if profit is the only thing that they care about still market cap doesn't matter!
for example for the past couple of days the market was red, or was it? look where the money is going. the pumpers don't just stop because price of some big altcoin was dropping. they cashed out a long time ago and now are pumping other coins. in fact the smaller the market cap the easier to pump
and that happens every day

[followmenot]

I think many people will invest in bitcoin expecting price to reach 100000 dollars and will lose money guess is going to be true.. But I think it will eventually reach 100k, problem is that greedy people will start believing it will go further and they will find themselves losing money.