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Author Topic: Greater fool theory: The bitcoin bubble  (Read 531 times)
ashler
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November 06, 2017, 11:09:46 AM
 #1

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People are buying Bitcoin because they expect other people to buy it from them at a higher price; the definition of the greater fool theory.

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If everyone tried to realise their Bitcoin wealth for millions, the market would dry up and the price would crash; that is what happened with the Mississippi and the contemporaneous South Sea bubbles. And because investors know that could happen, there is every incentive to sell first. When the crash comes, and it cannot be too far away, it will be dramatic.

https://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2017/11/greater-fool-theory-0
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November 06, 2017, 11:30:01 AM
 #2

When you read the blogs in the economist you really have to be prepared for everything....
Almost everyone there expresses more their frustration rather than a real analysis on the matter.

Check this one:
https://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2013/12/bitcoins-collapse
Quote
It has been clear for weeks the currency is in the midst of a huge speculative bubble. Speak to Bitcoin enthusiasts and it soon becomes clear that they while they think that Bitcoin will revolutionise online payments, they are mostly buying it in the hope of selling it off for a profit later. A few drug users aside, no one appears to be buying it as a way to buy things. Such demand could only reverse.


These guys are just humans, and humans are known to say lots of stupid things all day long.
Too bad some are getting paid for this.

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November 06, 2017, 11:45:42 AM
 #3

Let us save some time that the greater fool theory will only apply to people who just buy Bitcoin without even a strategy. I am not against buying Bitcoin at a higher price but there is always a right time to buy it, if the high price is justified by the price chart then you will know that buying Bitcoin now is good. But if the price chart is not clear then you better just sit the price action down until it settles.

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November 06, 2017, 11:56:39 AM
 #4

Let us save some time that the greater fool theory will only apply to people who just buy Bitcoin without even a strategy. I am not against buying Bitcoin at a higher price but there is always a right time to buy it, if the high price is justified by the price chart then you will know that buying Bitcoin now is good. But if the price chart is not clear then you better just sit the price action down until it settles.
That is right although if no one will buy when the price is high then like OP said no one can convert their bitcoin to fiat at their desired price. Even if that is the case, the greater fool theory is somehow flawed. They didn't consider the fact that bitcoin is a new innovative tech that brought about the ease in online transactions, without ever needing a middlemen and it is just natural that innovative technologies will always have a rising value on the society. Another example of innovative technologies are facebook and today's smartphones.
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November 06, 2017, 12:02:30 PM
 #5

I am not convinced that buying something with the intention to sell at a higher price is greater fool theory, perhaps buying something with no idea what is a good entry and exit point could fall under that category. If you buy rice in China and know you can sell it in the UK for a profit, that is not greater fool theory, that is good sound logic.

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November 06, 2017, 12:08:54 PM
 #6

I disagree with the statement that says that people buys bitcoin because they expect other people to buy it at a higher price.
Most of the people buy bitcoins because they believe in the technology that behind it, and not because they are interested in the speculation that behind it.

About the 2nd statement, it is correct, but it is right to almost every stock in the stock market.
If a large holder will be interested to sell a large percent of his holding, it will make the price to surge low, because liquidity at the spot price is lower then the market cap.
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November 06, 2017, 12:15:07 PM
Last edit: November 06, 2017, 01:17:39 PM by gentlemand
 #7

Depending on how things pan out, someone selling at $7500 may turn out to be by far the greater fool than the person who buys it.

There's no denying that tons of people here have bought with the intention of doing nothing but selling for more, but it's likely that selling becomes an increasingly irrelevant idea as the years go on.

My own hopes are to spend it where necessary and never sell, and who I spent it with won't have any desire to sell either.

And the market drying up thing applies to every single market in the entirety of human history. I can't believe this penis thinks Bitcoin is somehow different.

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November 06, 2017, 12:40:39 PM
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all can have their opinion and have own theory but the important thing when the demand of bitcoin still high people will add hope get earn from bitcoin trading.

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November 06, 2017, 12:52:17 PM
 #9

We have already come across such theories.

People don't buy with the expectation that others would buy at higher price from them.This explanation totally seems to be stupid.People buy it as an asset which has the potential to give high returns and at the same time,their investments also would be safe.

We could not expect all the people to sell off their bitcoins at the same time.Every one may have different ideas about their holdings.Some may hold it for an year and others may hold it as a long term investment and some my even have an idea of selling their bitcoins within two or three months.

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November 06, 2017, 12:59:16 PM
 #10


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If everyone tried to realise their Bitcoin wealth for millions, the market would dry up and the price would crash

Quote
Have you seen every people selling all their gold at once.....and again who will pay for all those gold....who is the buyer....Huh Still people buy and hold gold, don't they?? Same thing applies with Stocks and also with Bitcoin.
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November 06, 2017, 02:35:48 PM
 #11

There are always somebody who buy Bitcoin at current price. One a person thinks that the cost it too expensive to buy Bitcoin right now and on the other side another person thinks that it is a good time to buy Bitcoin now. The person who buys BTC holds it while the others buy more. This is how the price of BTC has been rising all these years. Everybody knows its worth will be more in future. The crash will happen only if all the people try to sell all their coins at the same time which is more unlikely to happen. As more people comes to know about BTC more people will buy it and that will  increase the price further more. To exit at the right time will depend on the individual. The sooner you buy the safer you will be.



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November 06, 2017, 08:01:49 PM
 #12

When you read the blogs in the economist you really have to be prepared for everything....
Almost everyone there expresses more their frustration rather than a real analysis on the matter.

Check this one:
https://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2013/12/bitcoins-collapse
Quote
It has been clear for weeks the currency is in the midst of a huge speculative bubble. Speak to Bitcoin enthusiasts and it soon becomes clear that they while they think that Bitcoin will revolutionise online payments, they are mostly buying it in the hope of selling it off for a profit later. A few drug users aside, no one appears to be buying it as a way to buy things. Such demand could only reverse.


These guys are just humans, and humans are known to say lots of stupid things all day long.
Too bad some are getting paid for this.
I dont support what these big economist keep on saying but neither do I defy their thougths and credit them as stupid. I mean we all know that they have achieved something through their wisdom in the economic field. If they are saying this there might be some reason to it. People say that they dont want to change the world as they earn from fiat but think for a second they have a lot more fiat than all of us and can buy lots of bitcoins to get some great return. I think this whole bitcoin theory need to be redesigned and readdressed considering the world economic scenario.
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November 06, 2017, 08:20:28 PM
 #13

all can have their opinion and have own theory but the important thing when the demand of bitcoin still high people will add hope get earn from bitcoin trading.

Yeah I agree with that. The thing here is we trade and we earn. People will have these because they its one of the way to encrease their profits.

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November 06, 2017, 08:27:22 PM
 #14

Literally every investment ever is about assuming other people will buy in higher, so you can sell it one day at a higher price. Not sure why some people seem to think this applies to bitcoin only and not to every other asset in the world.
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November 06, 2017, 08:32:51 PM
 #15

There are thousands like myself who also don't buy, but earn in Bitcoin. The Economist writer/editor has completely overlooked Bitcoin's first and foremost purpose: a digital currency and P2P payment method. I have already seen on my own personal usage, how I earn Bitcoin and then spend it - completely irrelevant of its price. Sure, most Bitcoin price tags have a fiat value attached to them, but hey fiat price tags also change from time to time to reflect their changing values.

And sure, I sell Bitcoin regularly, simply because I have bills to pay and mouths to feed, but I do it almost irrespective of prices. Sometimes I make more, sometimes I make less. I try to make more, but never at the sacrifice of holding off paying bills.

Sensationalist writing, but everyone's entitled to their extreme views, I guess.

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November 06, 2017, 08:45:29 PM
 #16

I dont buy bitcoins, i only earn them, and everytime that i have some bitcoins i always sell them.. It is not because i dont trust, it is because i prefer to hold that money on fiat (usd) because it is much more safer than bitcoin. I know that btc has rised a lot in the past, and until now, but it is a pretty new crypto and we dont know almost anything about it, it can be controled by anyone.
But yes, of course that sometimes i try to buy some, and then sell, but i never hold them for security reassons.


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November 06, 2017, 08:54:02 PM
 #17

I dont buy bitcoins, i only earn them, and everytime that i have some bitcoins i always sell them.

Wow. Have you ever added up how much gain you've given up on? What do you do to earn it? If it was via trading and sig campaigns and so on I don't really see why anyone would sell it unless they had a pressing need to. Mining is a different matter as there are immediate expenses to meet.

If you don't have any faith in BTC by now then when are you going to get some?

None of my business of course, just curious.

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November 06, 2017, 09:12:59 PM
 #18

It is sad to see that you think this is reality. However, the fact remains that people are holding onto their bitcoins, check the blockchain, so this is what drives the price coupled by the scarcity of the amount of coins left. You are confusing Bitcoin with Ethereum and other related altcoins. These all have short term potential whereas people are buying to hold Bitcoin for the long term.



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November 06, 2017, 09:32:31 PM
 #19

I dont buy bitcoins, i only earn them, and everytime that i have some bitcoins i always sell them.

Wow. Have you ever added up how much gain you've given up on? What do you do to earn it? If it was via trading and sig campaigns and so on I don't really see why anyone would sell it unless they had a pressing need to. Mining is a different matter as there are immediate expenses to meet.

If you don't have any faith in BTC by now then when are you going to get some?

None of my business of course, just curious.
He can able to get some bitcoin anytime since he does have the funds to buy on came from on the profits or money he did earn either on campaigns or tradings or any methods he does which in able for him to make money.
Its none really of our business since its his bitcoin or money after all he does have the full control on the decision he would made. People have different perceptions on bitcoin some of them would say its a bubble but for those believers on bitcoin will definitely say the different thing.

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November 06, 2017, 09:36:34 PM
 #20

Nowadays there are lots of this subject. Bitcoin is bubble

There are a few yes and no for this subject I think.

IMO bitcoins real usage still not enough. And there are lots of people buying it to sell  with higher price and gain more. Governments are not interested in changing their money to Bitcoin for some reasons.

But there are lots of people who believe the bitcoin is future of payments. Bitcoin has lots of advantages when we look fiat.

And what I think what this is my opinion. In near future BTC will be for crypto what gold is for fiats.It will has a good price but mostly useful cryptos will be in use. Bitcoin always will have good price as a  good example of how system should work. But some cryptos with more speed, less fees and good team with management and marketing skills will play main roles in buying and selling goods.

I want to add this: This is crypto we never can know what will happen next  Grin

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November 06, 2017, 09:39:07 PM
 #21

Quote
People are buying Bitcoin because they expect other people to buy it from them at a higher price; the definition of the greater fool theory.

Quote
If everyone tried to realise their Bitcoin wealth for millions, the market would dry up and the price would crash; that is what happened with the Mississippi and the contemporaneous South Sea bubbles. And because investors know that could happen, there is every incentive to sell first. When the crash comes, and it cannot be too far away, it will be dramatic.

https://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2017/11/greater-fool-theory-0

So? We know the price is going to go down at some point and then go up again that is the way things work, the most important aspect of bitcoin is if it is able to perform its function as a currency and bitcoin can do that so at some point the price of bitcoin is going to recover not because we are expecting a bigger fool but for the development and the adoption of bitcoin.

 
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November 06, 2017, 09:41:19 PM
 #22

I dont buy bitcoins, i only earn them, and everytime that i have some bitcoins i always sell them.. It is not because i dont trust, it is because i prefer to hold that money on fiat (usd) because it is much more safer than bitcoin.
That is the same as not trusting bitcoin. You said that holding it in fiat is safer than bitcoin, but that act and kind of thinking itself shows the little trust you have on btc. Instead of a currency, you only see it as a way to get extra fiat online.
Quote
If everyone tried to realise their Bitcoin wealth for millions, the market would dry up and the price would crash; that is what happened with the Mississippi and the contemporaneous South Sea bubbles. And because investors know that could happen, there is every incentive to sell first. When the crash comes, and it cannot be too far away, it will be dramatic.
Bitcoin price would dump if everyone sells it but it ain't the end. Instead of comparing bitcoin to what happened with the Mississippi and the contemporaneous South Sea bubbles, you should compare it instead on other cryptocurrencies who are created only for the sake of gaining money.
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November 06, 2017, 10:12:22 PM
 #23

The easiest way to look at something new and most of all something that have been at the later years the biggest finantial asset missed by "the experts" is throw the greater fool theory to the wall, see if it sticks and then come and say: "i told you so". The same guys that advocat for madof fund, or greek debt when the country was already on the verge of bankruptcy or buying stuff before the subprime crisis stating BTC is a greater fool theory asset for me is a BIG buy signal!

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November 06, 2017, 10:14:34 PM
 #24

Let us save some time that the greater fool theory will only apply to people who just buy Bitcoin without even a strategy. I am not against buying Bitcoin at a higher price but there is always a right time to buy it, if the high price is justified by the price chart then you will know that buying Bitcoin now is good. But if the price chart is not clear then you better just sit the price action down until it settles.

So what? I couldn't understand your point. I mean do you think this is something wrong to buy bitcoins? Or is it wrong to get bitcoin with the idea of getting it in a cheaper rate than other people?

Very interesting theories, I'll get more details about greater fool theory. I've heard this for the first time for bitcoin. Anyway, it's not bad to buy bitcoins nowadays because we're afraid of possible pumps in price.
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November 06, 2017, 11:00:05 PM
 #25

Quote
People are buying Bitcoin because they expect other people to buy it from them at a higher price; the definition of the greater fool theory.

Quote
If everyone tried to realise their Bitcoin wealth for millions, the market would dry up and the price would crash; that is what happened with the Mississippi and the contemporaneous South Sea bubbles. And because investors know that could happen, there is every incentive to sell first. When the crash comes, and it cannot be too far away, it will be dramatic.

https://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2017/11/greater-fool-theory-0



surely BTC have attracted many individual to save it in hopes of getting a profit after a period of time (thus further limiting the circulating BTC). but i think as long as BTC can be use as a commodity to buy different goods and services. it is only understandable that BTC value will steadily increase because of its nature limited supply and increasing use for it. and as long as people trust the technology and use it for its purpose. i think BTC will stay for what it is intended for a very long time.
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November 06, 2017, 11:08:51 PM
 #26

I dont buy bitcoins, i only earn them, and everytime that i have some bitcoins i always sell them.. It is not because i dont trust, it is because i prefer to hold that money on fiat (usd) because it is much more safer than bitcoin.
That is the same as not trusting bitcoin. You said that holding it in fiat is safer than bitcoin, but that act and kind of thinking itself shows the little trust you have on btc. Instead of a currency, you only see it as a way to get extra fiat online.
Quote
If everyone tried to realise their Bitcoin wealth for millions, the market would dry up and the price would crash; that is what happened with the Mississippi and the contemporaneous South Sea bubbles. And because investors know that could happen, there is every incentive to sell first. When the crash comes, and it cannot be too far away, it will be dramatic.
Bitcoin price would dump if everyone sells it but it ain't the end. Instead of comparing bitcoin to what happened with the Mississippi and the contemporaneous South Sea bubbles, you should compare it instead on other cryptocurrencies who are created only for the sake of gaining money.

That is correct, even though there could be a dump there could also be a mass adoption afterwards and so people should hold on nomatter the dump for others  to buy back and  bitcoin will always be on its feet despite what others might do to sabotage its operations.
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November 06, 2017, 11:14:50 PM
 #27

Seems like this sort of thing is what happens just before a bubble bursts. People trying to get in thinking it is going up and they will only be disappointed when it crashes hard soon after. Any one with a decent working brain who sees the BTC price chart will see we are in a serious bubble that is bound to burst anytime.
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November 06, 2017, 11:40:09 PM
 #28

I am not convinced that buying something with the intention to sell at a higher price is greater fool theory, perhaps buying something with no idea what is a good entry and exit point could fall under that category. If you buy rice in China and know you can sell it in the UK for a profit, that is not greater fool theory, that is good sound logic.

Everyone who buys an asset does so with the intention of it being more valuable in the future; the intention has no impact on whether or not it's a sound decision. In your analogy, you present it as a given that rice can be bought in China and sold profitably in the UK, but in the real world, anywhere there is a known profit margin, there is intense competition that eliminates it except for the biggest, best run operators. There is no such thing as gauranteed profit in the real world.

The point is that nobody buying bitcoin at $7000 has a reasonable expectation what the price should be or whether they should expect to be able to sell it at a profit later. Of course everyone intends for it to be worth more later, but the blind assumption that you will be able to flip it to someone who will value it more in the future than what you do now is what proves the basis of the greater fool theory. Everyone buying right now is only doing so because everyone is sharing the same delusion that the price can't go down, or if it does go down, it'll recover quickly. The base assumption is "as long as I don't sell for less than what I bought for, I'll make a profit." Nothing in the world works that way, and the scary part is people are treating bitcoin like it's a risk-less asset.
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November 07, 2017, 12:00:29 AM
 #29

I am not convinced that buying something with the intention to sell at a higher price is greater fool theory, perhaps buying something with no idea what is a good entry and exit point could fall under that category. If you buy rice in China and know you can sell it in the UK for a profit, that is not greater fool theory, that is good sound logic.

Everyone who buys an asset does so with the intention of it being more valuable in the future; the intention has no impact on whether or not it's a sound decision. In your analogy, you present it as a given that rice can be bought in China and sold profitably in the UK, but in the real world, anywhere there is a known profit margin, there is intense competition that eliminates it except for the biggest, best run operators. There is no such thing as gauranteed profit in the real world.

The point is that nobody buying bitcoin at $7000 has a reasonable expectation what the price should be or whether they should expect to be able to sell it at a profit later. Of course everyone intends for it to be worth more later, but the blind assumption that you will be able to flip it to someone who will value it more in the future than what you do now is what proves the basis of the greater fool theory. Everyone buying right now is only doing so because everyone is sharing the same delusion that the price can't go down, or if it does go down, it'll recover quickly. The base assumption is "as long as I don't sell for less than what I bought for, I'll make a profit." Nothing in the world works that way, and the scary part is people are treating bitcoin like it's a risk-less asset.


And you just described every stock, every investment ever. So whats the big deal? Its no different than putting your money in any other investment, you do it to sell it at a higher price later. Only difference is if you buy now you're getting in when Bitcoin is still tiny and has a long way to mature. Unlike getting in on a company's stock that is already mature. Sure the risk is maybe Bitcoin doesn't succeed as a payment platform, but we probably won't know that for a few years and in the meantime it looks very unlikely to do anything but go up.
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November 07, 2017, 12:13:00 AM
 #30

People are buying Bitcoin because they expect other people to buy it from them at a higher price; the definition of the greater fool theory.
While I don't necessarily disagree with this, the same could be said of any stock that doesn't pay a dividend, like Facebook and the like.  People own it in hopes of getting capital gains (and no income) and selling it off to another person at a higher price.  That is the "greater fool theory", which has been serving capitalism well for as long as capitalism has been around.  Nothing wrong with that in my mind, just that bitcoin's a different asset.

If everyone tried to realise their Bitcoin wealth for millions, the market would dry up and the price would crash
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November 07, 2017, 12:13:35 AM
 #31

There are many who said that one even on the young years of Bitcoin in the blockchain world but right now those who just brag and never this coins feel lost because they don't know that it could rise up to this price right now. Those people who says right now that Bitcoin is a bubble again, then history will just repeat and they will miss the opportunity ahead of supporting bitcoin. Well, we can't control how they think about bitcoin but I know that if negativity will always be then negative realization will arises too. Hope these people would realize how great this crypto is and a bubble thing is not its character.
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November 07, 2017, 12:48:51 AM
 #32

Let them say what they want about bitcoin. These guys don't know how much money they're missing out on. A crash can be expected with bitcoin's price but I don't see it going down heavily like the south sea bubble. Bitcoin has more uses than being a stock.  Other people said previously that bitcoin is crashing soon but look where bitcoin is at now.

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......Play......
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