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Author Topic: Is SegWit2x Nov fork 100% certain to happen?  (Read 1289 times)
thinair
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November 08, 2017, 10:51:38 AM
 #1

I have been reading about the coming SegWit2x fork coming Nov 15. I have some idea that it seems the fork will definitely happen starting at block 494,784; it will occur as long as there are sufficient hash power to mine it (ensuring about 1 block per 10 min). If this B2X occurs, all BTC holders will have coins in both chains. B2X will be valuable as long as here are buyers willing to buy with fiat or merchants willing to accept it. I do know we have to take care as SegWit2x do not add replay protection.

Can someone explain if B2X is a 100% certainty on Nov 15.  I am not an expert. I have been googling but have not found a definite answer.   
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November 08, 2017, 12:12:58 PM
 #2

Like you said, it's for sure going to happen at block 494,784. The date is always uncertain. But it's expected to happen in November 15.

Read this article: With forks, the block matters, not the date[1].
Quote
TIP: One simple way to keep track of what block we are at is with blockexplorer.com. A block is mined roughly every 10 minutes, but this fluctuates (which is why one can only estimate the exact time a block will occur).

[1] http://cryptocurrencyfacts.com/block-number-matters-with-crypto-forks/

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November 08, 2017, 12:20:07 PM
 #3

Yes, it is all about the blocks. The forks date depends only on blocks. As someone earlier said: one block = 10 minutes (less than 1000 blocks left until segwit2x).
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November 08, 2017, 01:15:25 PM
 #4

Like you said, it's for sure going to happen at block 494,784. The date is always uncertain. But it's expected to happen in November 15.

Read this article: With forks, the block matters, not the date[1].
Quote
TIP: One simple way to keep track of what block we are at is with blockexplorer.com. A block is mined roughly every 10 minutes, but this fluctuates (which is why one can only estimate the exact time a block will occur).

[1] http://cryptocurrencyfacts.com/block-number-matters-with-crypto-forks/
Many thanks. I need to be dead sure as I am analyzing how this fork may affect price.

Another question. If I have bitcoins (an amount X before fork) in a trading exchange, I think it may be legally  bound to give me X B2X; they have to honor our rights to this new coins. Can it happen some "reputable" exchanges refuse to give us our new allocation of B2X?   
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November 08, 2017, 03:33:55 PM
 #5

Another question. If I have bitcoins (an amount X before fork) in a trading exchange, I think it may be legally  bound to give me X B2X; they have to honor our rights to this new coins. Can it happen some "reputable" exchanges refuse to give us our new allocation of B2X?   


getting greedy, what? Did you sign a contract to buy BTC/ETH/Monero/Dash with them? Or did you buy B2x to pay with BTC? Do you have the private keys? Have you tried to buy yourself B2X Futures? Or is it just that you want to get "rich" without doing any efforts?
Look, the majority is here greedy, and we all want to get the money from others without doing any effort. It's not a communism system, right? And if we know howto get the money from others, why would we explain to others ...
But if you turn your question around: "will my exchange XYZ provide the equivalent of BTC in Shitcoin2x?", then people might have better experience in replying to such question.
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November 08, 2017, 04:28:06 PM
 #6

While I am typing this the current block of the Bitcoin network already reaches 493,645 so if Segwit2x will go through at the exact block of 494,784 then it is only 1139 blocks left until it happens meaning if 1 block mines every 10 minutes then it take 11,390 minutes or 189.83 hours or 7.909 days so if we count it, probably the Segwit2x will occur in late night of November 16, 2017. It is true that a new coin will have value if there are investors that will go inside of it as it needs for the market capitalization and guess what there are people who really supporting it.


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November 08, 2017, 04:37:43 PM
 #7

If I have bitcoins (an amount X before fork) in a trading exchange, I think it may be legally  bound to give me X B2X; they have to honor our rights to this new coins. Can it happen some "reputable" exchanges refuse to give us our new allocation of B2X?
Check their advertised policy.
If you're worried, just move your balance to your own wallet (like Bitcoin Core) before the fork, and back to the exchange some time afterwards.
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November 08, 2017, 05:48:29 PM
 #8

If I have bitcoins (an amount X before fork) in a trading exchange, I think it may be legally  bound to give me X B2X; they have to honor our rights to this new coins. Can it happen some "reputable" exchanges refuse to give us our new allocation of B2X?
Check their advertised policy.
If you're worried, just move your balance to your own wallet (like Bitcoin Core) before the fork, and back to the exchange some time afterwards.
If the exchanges do not honor our B2X allocation, it is as much as thievery. 

We are now caught between a rock and a hard place. If we withdraw all our BTC and the market crash, how do we dump? Replenishing our BTC deposit may take a day or two. Extreme relativistic time dilation may mean a day is a year.   
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November 08, 2017, 05:54:50 PM
 #9

While I am typing this the current block of the Bitcoin network already reaches 493,645 so if Segwit2x will go through at the exact block of 494,784 then it is only 1139 blocks left until it happens meaning if 1 block mines every 10 minutes then it take 11,390 minutes or 189.83 hours or 7.909 days so if we count it, probably the Segwit2x will occur in late night of November 16, 2017. It is true that a new coin will have value if there are investors that will go inside of it as it needs for the market capitalization and guess what there are people who really supporting it.
BTC2x will have value. When it starts trading, there is no reference to gauge market price expectation. In a usual IPO, there is the issue price as a guide. I think now, we have to take the current bitcoin cash of $650 and the $7000 as reference guide. The volatility may be insane.
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November 08, 2017, 06:09:57 PM
 #10


The terrible 2x part of the Segwit agreement has been canceled at last! Lord has heard our prayers!

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November 08, 2017, 06:47:43 PM
 #11


The terrible 2x part of the Segwit agreement has been canceled at last! Lord has heard our prayers!
Just insane Shocked When everyone expect it to happen, it is cancelled.

I don't know about these developers and open source. What if some others announce tomorrow that they will carry on SegWit2x where others left off - after all it is OPEN SOURCE!

That's how impregnable the castle of blockchain technology is!

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November 08, 2017, 07:24:52 PM
 #12

Jeez this Fork cancellation is making chaos on the market! I hope generally in a good way.
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November 08, 2017, 07:56:03 PM
 #13

Someone from Reddit commented - Bitcoin's GREAT decentralized consensus decide by 6 developers who talked the market up from $500 to $7500.

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November 08, 2017, 08:23:46 PM
 #14

Someone from Reddit commented - Bitcoin's GREAT decentralized consensus decide by 6 developers who talked the market up from $500 to $7500.

Epic case study of Centralized Decentralized Blockchain Open Source Technology Grin 

This is shady i feel like a huge market manipulation today.
But the segwit2x cowntdown still on.
Donot know what that means
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November 08, 2017, 08:40:40 PM
 #15

Someone from Reddit commented - Bitcoin's GREAT decentralized consensus decide by 6 developers who talked the market up from $500 to $7500.

Epic case study of Centralized Decentralized Blockchain Open Source Technology Grin 

This is shady i feel like a huge market manipulation today.
But the segwit2x cowntdown still on.
Donot know what that means
Better say I am no expert. I really can't tell.  The news seems genuine as it is reported in all mainstream media. If they play tricks this way, then there will be no more trust about these Bitcoin thing.

Open source means everyone can start a fork. As long as the miners and trading exchanges collude and proceed with a group of new developers, they may again announce on the 14 Nov:

Segwit2x Is On Track
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November 08, 2017, 08:43:57 PM
 #16

Better say I am no expert. I really can't tell.  The news seems genuine as it is reported in all mainstream media. If they play tricks this way, then there will be no more trust about these Bitcoin thing.

Open source means everyone can start a fork. As long as the miners and trading exchanges collude and proceed with a group of new developers, they may again announce on the 14 Nov:

Segwit2x Is On Track
The developer of segwit2x along with several of the CEOs that supported it (and thus their companies) announced today that Segwit2x has been suspended. The full announcement is here: https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-segwit2x/2017-November/000685.html

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November 08, 2017, 09:00:39 PM
 #17

I have been reading about the coming SegWit2x fork coming Nov 15. I have some idea that it seems the fork will definitely happen starting at block 494,784; it will occur as long as there are sufficient hash power to mine it (ensuring about 1 block per 10 min). If this B2X occurs, all BTC holders will have coins in both chains. B2X will be valuable as long as here are buyers willing to buy with fiat or merchants willing to accept it. I do know we have to take care as SegWit2x do not add replay protection.

Can someone explain if B2X is a 100% certainty on Nov 15.  I am not an expert. I have been googling but have not found a definite answer.   

It seems like it canceled .
but there are some people still saying it will happen.
i donot know what kind of market manipulation is going on.
but i am smelling some shady tricks here.
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November 08, 2017, 09:41:25 PM
 #18

I have been reading about the coming SegWit2x fork coming Nov 15. I have some idea that it seems the fork will definitely happen starting at block 494,784; it will occur as long as there are sufficient hash power to mine it (ensuring about 1 block per 10 min). If this B2X occurs, all BTC holders will have coins in both chains. B2X will be valuable as long as here are buyers willing to buy with fiat or merchants willing to accept it. I do know we have to take care as SegWit2x do not add replay protection.

Can someone explain if B2X is a 100% certainty on Nov 15.  I am not an expert. I have been googling but have not found a definite answer.   

It seems like it canceled .
but there are some people still saying it will happen.
i donot know what kind of market manipulation is going on.
but i am smelling some shady tricks here.

Maybe the segwit2x code is ready, but the cancellation statement probably means there won't be sufficient hash power to mine segwit2x and thus not able to start the chain at all

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November 08, 2017, 09:51:36 PM
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Maybe the segwit2x code is ready, but the cancellation statement probably means there won't be sufficient hash power to mine segwit2x and thus not able to start the chain at all

You are right there that SegWit2x will not be pass just like Bitcoin Unlimited back then because there rumors that a large portion of miners will not supporting it to be implemented on November 16, 2017 or when the right block for it was reach but in case it'll not go through I think there is still a Bitcoin2x coin that will be available on the market no matter what.

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November 08, 2017, 10:03:44 PM
 #20

which wallets will support the 2x? i think its a lost attempt to attack bitcoin core, but well if they give free airdrop (altcoins) and if really any exchange gonna trade them, i will sell them immediately
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November 08, 2017, 10:10:27 PM
 #21

Just now read in twitter about that SegWit2x is cancelled and it wont happen, whether it is a good news or bad dont know but market reacted and it is moving around 7k to 7.15k price. Whether to hold or book profit as i had purchased at 5k price.

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November 08, 2017, 11:10:00 PM
 #22

Just now read in twitter about that SegWit2x is cancelled and it wont happen, whether it is a good news or bad dont know but market reacted and it is moving around 7k to 7.15k price. Whether to hold or book profit as i had purchased at 5k price.

Just pay attention, people slowly realize the cancellation.  Once they realize they wont get any "free forked btc", they start to sell and we finally can see a correction to the btc price. Take care.

                               
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November 09, 2017, 06:49:50 AM
 #23

Read this post.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2344564.0

This forum is moving too fast and we can easily miss some very good comments. The OP really got it right that Segwt2x cannot happened - posted 1 Nov. I think it is because he has expert knowledge of computer and networking. Segwt2x  is all about migration to new client bitcoin codes. You cannot have a proper fork where the codes are buggy. So I think there won't be a 15 Nov fork. The news is real.

What we now know is that this blockchain crypto is not as great as have been told us. The only present use of bitcoin is for the benefits of the large holders as a tool for pump-and-dump. From now onward, the market will go down all the way to $1000 to $2000 after the large holders have taken all their profits. Thereafter the next round would unfold. The bottom may be in 2017+3 or in 2020. 

Also bear in mind that when bitcoin started, large proportions are in the control of the few. Any hard fork like bitcoin cash too would mean the same large holders will be allocated the same large portion of bitcoin cash. So any new fork of bitcoin always propagate this same disproportionate control of the present large holders. So we expect them only to squeeze every drop of profit by crashing bitcoin slowly all the way back to $1000.

These large holders too have the benefit of moving funds from bitcoin cash vs bitcoin - another advantage. 
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November 09, 2017, 06:54:05 AM
 #24

A lot of people have been taken for a ride with this whole SegWit2X fork. I think this was orchestrated long before the cancelation/suspension was announced. Jeff Garzik is working on Metronome and shown his intend with the announcement of the ICO.

They also knew that they were playing with fire by not including "replay protection" in SegWit2X. If it failed and people lost BTC because of that, then they would be blamed and their reputation would have been shattered. I also think that there might have been a little bit of insider trading and market manipulation being done with this.

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November 09, 2017, 08:39:19 AM
 #25

A lot of people have been taken for a ride with this whole SegWit2X fork. I think this was orchestrated long before the cancelation/suspension was announced. Jeff Garzik is working on Metronome and shown his intend with the announcement of the ICO.

They also knew that they were playing with fire by not including "replay protection" in SegWit2X. If it failed and people lost BTC because of that, then they would be blamed and their reputation would have been shattered. I also think that there might have been a little bit of insider trading and market manipulation being done with this.

You can be sure that this isn't over, and that their next attempt won't include replay protection either. Give it one year. Belche (Bitgo), Armstrong (Coinbase), Pair (Bitpay) and others are very determined to see many massive on-chain capacity increases in the future, which is only possible via hard fork.

I'm glad that the some of the CEOs pushing the fork backed down. But I'm disappointed in general with the obvious knowledge gap that needs to be overcome around consensus issues.



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c-none
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November 09, 2017, 08:46:21 AM
 #26

Just now read in twitter about that SegWit2x is cancelled and it wont happen, whether it is a good news or bad dont know but market reacted and it is moving around 7k to 7.15k price. Whether to hold or book profit as i had purchased at 5k price.

Just pay attention, people slowly realize the cancellation.  Once they realize they wont get any "free forked btc", they start to sell and we finally can see a correction to the btc price. Take care.

We still expect a correction but nothing happened...

What do you guys think about price of BTC for this month?
pebwindkraft
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November 09, 2017, 09:26:15 AM
 #27

What we now know is that this blockchain crypto is not as great as have been told us. The only present use of bitcoin is for the benefits of the large holders as a tool for pump-and-dump. From now onward, the market will go down all the way to $1000 to $2000 after the large holders have taken all their profits. Thereafter the next round would unfold. The bottom may be in 2017+3 or in 2020. 

what a stupid comment in a forum from a newbie.

BITCOIN IS GREAT !!!  Grin Grin Grin
it's just not for newbies, who turned in too late (loosers), and want to make money quickly, and now bet on the wrong horse.

Looking at the other posts, you must be really disappointed about not having S2X happen - as I said, looks like you were too greedy, and now tring to troll the forum with predictions into the future. Show your track record of predictions in the past, that met the target, and then one could develop trust in such "just having an opinion" messages. But you have no proof. So go to the reddit blogs, and post it there. It meets more the emotional esteem and level of intelligence of these messages.
Monartis
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November 09, 2017, 09:55:00 AM
 #28

Obviously confirms the need for consensus prior to moving forward. Thank you for clarifications offered in this thread.
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November 09, 2017, 10:56:07 AM
 #29

Fork is going to happen after all?

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-segwit2x/2017-November/000689.html
thinair
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November 09, 2017, 01:53:55 PM
 #30


Though it is been cancelled because of lack of consensus, it will going to happen soon no doubts, as it said "Backing down the difficulty right now is a strategy". We just need to wait for the upgrade to happened and let's see what change would it bring.
I am not sure of the authenticity of such replies; the original message seems to be accepted by almost everybody - a postponement. It means at a later date? When?     

It could be a coding problem.  Those coding could not get out the changes to meet the looming 16 Nov dateline; thus the postponement. What I know of open source is that anyone can start from the same set of codes and make changes. So they may come back at a later date. Forking may be just part of such a system.

The very limitation of bitcoin that renders it only as a medium of speculation is that there could be hard forks. Hard forks are just creating "cypto money out of thin air" - no different from the fiat banking system. In fiat banking, the "evil" bankers are the one getting the "free coins"; with forks, the largest portion of free coins go to the largest hoarders. I think it is these miners who have large holding of bitcoins who are most interested in forks. These may also be a form of market manipulation.         
thinair
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November 09, 2017, 02:09:42 PM
 #31

What we now know is that this blockchain crypto is not as great as have been told us. The only present use of bitcoin is for the benefits of the large holders as a tool for pump-and-dump. From now onward, the market will go down all the way to $1000 to $2000 after the large holders have taken all their profits. Thereafter the next round would unfold. The bottom may be in 2017+3 or in 2020. 

what a stupid comment in a forum from a newbie.

BITCOIN IS GREAT !!!  Grin Grin Grin
it's just not for newbies, who turned in too late (loosers), and want to make money quickly, and now bet on the wrong horse.

Looking at the other posts, you must be really disappointed about not having S2X happen - as I said, looks like you were too greedy, and now tring to troll the forum with predictions into the future. Show your track record of predictions in the past, that met the target, and then one could develop trust in such "just having an opinion" messages. But you have no proof. So go to the reddit blogs, and post it there. It meets more the emotional esteem and level of intelligence of these messages.
1) I predicted the 2000 NASDAQ crash of the technology companies.
2) I predicted the US housing bubble leading to the 2008 crash. I predicted the failure of Lehman Brothers.
3) I predicted the rise of China's economy.
4) I predicted that the prediction of 21 Dec 2012 as the End-Of-The-World to be wrong and I am right. We are still here speculating on bitcoins.
5) I predict bitcoin will go back down to $1000 - $2000 around 2020     
6) I predict the Second Coming... the Spirit is already here working amongst us ..
...
Dr. Nouriel
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November 09, 2017, 06:03:13 PM
 #32

Just now read in twitter about that SegWit2x is cancelled and it wont happen, whether it is a good news or bad dont know but market reacted and it is moving around 7k to 7.15k price. Whether to hold or book profit as i had purchased at 5k price.
See my detail post here:
Bitcoin Must Crash - $7500 Is The Peak.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2380173.0
BitMaxz
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November 09, 2017, 07:27:29 PM
 #33

Just now read in twitter about that SegWit2x is cancelled and it wont happen, whether it is a good news or bad dont know but market reacted and it is moving around 7k to 7.15k price. Whether to hold or book profit as i had purchased at 5k price.
I was excited for segwit2x i thought everything will be ok but now they cancel Segwit2x Or this is another fake news..
Well this is trending news when searching about bitcoin in google..  Looks like those people who are investing a lot and expecting for fork coins are regretting if they bought bitcoin in high price.. Well i only had few bitcoin holdings if ever they change their mine its fine to me if not well i believe that we will see a massive decrease of the price..
As i can seen altcoins today are getting increases just noticed...

Colorblind
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November 10, 2017, 06:53:28 AM
 #34

Just now read in twitter about that SegWit2x is cancelled and it wont happen, whether it is a good news or bad dont know but market reacted and it is moving around 7k to 7.15k price. Whether to hold or book profit as i had purchased at 5k price.
I was excited for segwit2x i thought everything will be ok but now they cancel Segwit2x Or this is another fake news..
Well this is trending news when searching about bitcoin in google..  Looks like those people who are investing a lot and expecting for fork coins are regretting if they bought bitcoin in high price.. Well i only had few bitcoin holdings if ever they change their mine its fine to me if not well i believe that we will see a massive decrease of the price..
As i can seen altcoins today are getting increases just noticed...

My oppinion is  cancelation of Segwit2x probably a good thing for BitCoin. No more uncertainty and fear. Also altcoins grew.
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