Difficulty 252,000,000 in December 2013

[jhansen858]

In order for your prediction to be true:

You are predicting 4,238,893 GH/s in 12 months(592 Million Difficulty).  Lets looks at what that means.

1) This says there will be ~ 70,000 units mining at an average of 60 GH/s in 12 months....
2) That would be 6000 units per month shipping starting right now and sustaining for 12 months....
3) That equates to a minimum of $18,000,000 per month being spent in hardware every month for the next 12 months (at current prices)...
4) That equates to $3,204,603.108 / month being spent on power if you consider usage at ~7w / GH @ $0.15 / kwh
5) The amount of coins currently being generated in 30 days is worth $10,800,000 at current prices.
6) That means that $254,455,236 would have been spent to generate $129,600,000 worth of value.

I highly doubt that the equation will become that skewed.  The market is mostly rational and people will stop "investing" in asics long before we hit this difficulty level. 

[1714617366]

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[1714617366]

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[k9quaint]

In order for your prediction to be true:

You are predicting 4,238,893 GH/s in 12 months(592 Million Difficulty).  Lets looks at what that means.

1) This says there will be ~ 70,000 units mining at an average of 60 GH/s in 12 months....

Or 14,000 units hashing at 300GH/s. Larger units than that for less money than a Batch 3 Avalon are on the horizon.
It is not out of the realm to think that 1200 such units could ship per month over the entire Bitcoin ecosystem.
5,30 & 60 GH/s are first generation sized ASIC mining devices. Density will increase and cost will decrease.

~11,000 Jupitors from KNC could supply that much hashrate.
At their current prices, that many Jupitors would cost $75,900,000. That hash rate would be chasing after $129,600,000 worth of value.
Obviously, future purchases of mining equipment would be spread over many vendors.

[optimator]

In order for your prediction to be true:

You are predicting 4,238,893 GH/s in 12 months(592 Million Difficulty).  Lets looks at what that means.

1) This says there will be ~ 70,000 units mining at an average of 60 GH/s in 12 months....
2) That would be 6000 units per month shipping starting right now and sustaining for 12 months....
3) That equates to a minimum of $18,000,000 per month being spent in hardware every month for the next 12 months (at current prices)...
4) That equates to $3,204,603.108 / month being spent on power if you consider usage at ~7w / GH @ $0.15 / kwh
5) The amount of coins currently being generated in 30 days is worth $10,800,000 at current prices.
6) That means that $254,455,236 would have been spent to generate $129,600,000 worth of value.

I highly doubt that the equation will become that skewed.  The market is mostly rational and people will stop "investing" in asics long before we hit this difficulty level. 

Your point is valid. While I continue to doubt any rational market hypothesis, I agree that there will be an equilibrium point. The primary agent working against a hard equilibrium point is btc price speculation. There may well be individuals or even companies who invest in mining on price rise speculation.

I do believe 252,000,000 overestimates the December difficulty, however, there will be generation 2 and generation 3 chips coming to market. I'd estimate generation 2 chips within 9-12 months and gen 3 chips in 12-18 months.

As the new chips hit the market the cost per gigahash will decrease. Using US dollars as a baseline, Avalon batch 1 units cost about $18 / Gh. KNC Jupiters are at about $17.50 / Gh. Butterfly Labs is around $50-$55 / Gh, although their initial pricing was closer to $18 / Gh. Gen 2 chips may reduce that cost by 75% and gen 3 chips by 50%.

The point being that more hashrate can be brought to the network at substantially reduced costs while speculators may invest counting on btc to increase.

Cheers!

[polarhei]

To create such things, at this moment, I currently estimate how bad when the difficulity is 60M based with current method known. The answer, well, I think at the december 2013, About 55% of your estimated as Avalon cannot stand last, The butterfly almost do nothing, Knc is questionable, the ASICMiner do very well.

From kncminer currerent status, I currently have little idea how many modules will be made by ORSoc based on order number.

I think, for preallocated 160-180Thash/s mentioned, there are at least 4000 modules will be made, with different configurations.

To create the number, I think you will need 20K modules to do.

[cryptocoinmkt.com]

I've create a spreadsheet to roughly estimate the coming mining difficulty.

It estimates the anticipated hash rate of the network each month until December. I don't realistically expect anyone could have visibility past december. That being said, after December, the spreadsheet calculates a flat 10% growth per month.

The idea is to determine what the break even cost (B/E) for a mining unit might be.

For example, if you could obtain a 66 Gh/s unit starting in June, your 6 month profit would be estimated at 83 btc. Therefore, as long as you pay under 83 btc for the unit you will make a profit in 6 months.

However, if you were to acquire the same unit in October, then your B/E price over 6 months would be 25 btc.

I've chosen 6 months as the timeframe because I believe there is simply too much risk / variability past 6 months to accurately calculate a ROI.

The spreadsheet calculates the anticipated hash rate, shows an anticipated network difficulty, and then calculates the estimated btc / day rate based on the network hash rate.

I would welcome any discussion as to the formulas in the spreadsheet and the assumptions underlying when each company would bring their hash rate to the network.

The spreadsheet can be accessed here.

Cheers!

Interesting spreadsheet.

So, by the end of December 2013, is it even worth it to GPU mine for Bitcoins anymore?  Hmmm.....

[Mota]

I've create a spreadsheet to roughly estimate the coming mining difficulty.

It estimates the anticipated hash rate of the network each month until December. I don't realistically expect anyone could have visibility past december. That being said, after December, the spreadsheet calculates a flat 10% growth per month.

The idea is to determine what the break even cost (B/E) for a mining unit might be.

For example, if you could obtain a 66 Gh/s unit starting in June, your 6 month profit would be estimated at 83 btc. Therefore, as long as you pay under 83 btc for the unit you will make a profit in 6 months.

However, if you were to acquire the same unit in October, then your B/E price over 6 months would be 25 btc.

I've chosen 6 months as the timeframe because I believe there is simply too much risk / variability past 6 months to accurately calculate a ROI.

The spreadsheet calculates the anticipated hash rate, shows an anticipated network difficulty, and then calculates the estimated btc / day rate based on the network hash rate.

I would welcome any discussion as to the formulas in the spreadsheet and the assumptions underlying when each company would bring their hash rate to the network.

The spreadsheet can be accessed here.

Cheers!

Interesting spreadsheet.

So, by the end of December 2013, is it even worth it to GPU mine for Bitcoins anymore?  Hmmm.....

As always, mining is dependant on power cost. If you don't pay for power, GPU will always be worth it.

[deadgiveaway]

Clearly wrong. July is almost over and we just hit 31 million, which is 23 million lower than your spreadsheet suggested. I say it's possible we hit 125 million by the end of the year, but 250 at this rate doesn't seem likely.

[Its About Sharing]

Clearly wrong. July is almost over and we just hit 31 million, which is 23 million lower than your spreadsheet suggested. I say it's possible we hit 125 million by the end of the year, but 250 at this rate doesn't seem likely.

Any update guys on what December may look like? I don't see 250 million, even with all the new players. I get the feeling they will be late to deliver. Look at the recent Avalon debacle/scam...

I'm guessing 120-150 million in December. Ideas? Links?

Thx,
IAS

[jspielberg]

Here is a Wolfram Alpha analysis of that last few retargets fitted to an exponential:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B%7B13%2C+3651012%7D%2C%7B37%2C+4847647%7D%2C%7B96%2C+11187257%7D%2C+%7B120%2C+15605633%7D%2C%7B156%2C26162876%7D%2C%7B167%2C31256960%7D%2C%28189%2C50810340%7D%7D

I have complete faith that 100TH mine project will deploy 200TH mine in September.  Avalon chips will ship and DIY folks will run their miners so their losses will be smaller.https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.0

If the curve follows the exponential (which I fully anticipate it will)  we should 500M difficulty Jan.1 as a conservative estimate, and 1B difficulty as a stretch.

[Its About Sharing]

Here is a Wolfram Alpha analysis of that last few retargets fitted to an exponential:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B%7B13%2C+3651012%7D%2C%7B37%2C+4847647%7D%2C%7B96%2C+11187257%7D%2C+%7B120%2C+15605633%7D%2C%7B156%2C26162876%7D%2C%7B167%2C31256960%7D%2C%28189%2C50810340%7D%7D

I have complete faith that 100TH mine project will deploy 200TH mine in September.  Avalon chips will ship and DIY folks will run their miners so their losses will be smaller.https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=236050.0

If the curve follows the exponential (which I fully anticipate it will)  we should 500M difficulty Jan.1 as a conservative estimate, and 1B difficulty as a stretch.

Holy Crap! Nice work there but I do hope your numbers are a bit off. If all these companies ship and your conservative exponential growth is right on, I guess it is possible.

Thanks a lot for posting this. I guess we'll watch what happens in September, as that is when some units begin shipping. October is where the shit might hit the fan...