Guy spent $85000 on B2X futures

[cellard]

https://medium.com/@bartjellema/why-i-just-bought-90-b2x-bitcoin-segwit2x-futures-f94d0ee13eb9

Holy hell did anyone see this?

I just spent about $85.000 on buying B2X futures. This just means that once SegWit2x goes live, I’ll already have 90 coins. But why did I spent nearly a $1000/coin for coins that everyone will get for “free”?

This is crazy. One of the worst gambles I've seen. Another lesson for hardforkers... never bet big on a hardfork unless it has 99% consensus. It's a shame we will not see Roger Ver lose his BTC's. Also notice how he and a lot of other guys didn't accept the big bets proposed by Gmaxwell, Adam Back and Trace Mayer of up to 25000 BTC. Adam was looking for ridiculously low ratios lately to do OTC trading and no one accepted. I think a lot of people have been aware of this happening a long time before they cancelled. We saw massive inside trading yesterday.

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[Xavofat]

He claims that this was only a fairly small amount of his money, so I suppose this guy must be extremely rich or a liar.  If he's a liar, it's possible that he didn't invest that much in the first place.  If he's extremely rich, it doesn't matter too much because the number means less to him than it does to us.

This is crazy. One of the worst gambles I've seen. Another lesson for hardforkers... never bet big on a hardfork unless it has 99% consensus.

If you already perceive it to have 99% consensus, it wouldn't be betting big.  You might be betting a lot of money, but the risk would be negligible and the amount of money that you would gain for being correct would also be negligible.

In reality, it's very hard to measure consensus.  Where this guy went wrong is trying to measure it rather than just being part of consensus.

[bitorama]

oh my god, so how is this guy now

[Dalmar]

https://medium.com/@bartjellema/why-i-just-bought-90-b2x-bitcoin-segwit2x-futures-f94d0ee13eb9

Holy hell did anyone see this?

I just spent about $85.000 on buying B2X futures. This just means that once SegWit2x goes live, I’ll already have 90 coins. But why did I spent nearly a $1000/coin for coins that everyone will get for “free”?

This is crazy. One of the worst gambles I've seen. Another lesson for hardforkers... never bet big on a hardfork unless it has 99% consensus. It's a shame we will not see Roger Ver lose his BTC's. Also notice how he and a lot of other guys didn't accept the big bets proposed by Gmaxwell, Adam Back and Trace Mayer of up to 25000 BTC. Adam was looking for ridiculously low ratios lately to do OTC trading and no one accepted. I think a lot of people have been aware of this happening a long time before they cancelled. We saw massive inside trading yesterday.

Anyway it is fair end for those who cant understand how markets work and wanna to gamble with big amount.. Hardforks can be very dangerous if you know what you are doing with upcoming events. Gambling is totally different story than smart trading...

[dothebeats]

After reading up to the very end, I chuckled a bit by reading this:

BT2 trading at $200 and B2X trading at $320. Obviously not the outcome I was hoping for, but I always knew this was a gamble. I still think it was a good gamble for the odds and that it had positive expected value. I’d do it again.

How can someone gather up so much data yet fail to foresee that this isn't a 'done deal' like he was trying to point out? It was a gamble, yes, but knowing that consensus isn't even reached, no matter how much support a fork receives, it isn't going to happen. I feel bad for his loss but at the same time think he hasn't researched about his supposed 'gamble' very well.

[castiel0504]

I think i saw that yesterday... When i saw it, after that i open reddit and saw that S2X was canceled... I just facepalmed myself.... I mean i lost 200$ on LocalBitcoins transaction... But this... THIS IS OVERKILL... Investing in something that is not 99% appreciated or accepted by community.. I don't know what to say.. This is really EXPENSIVE LESSON... hard thing when you need to learn from them(expensive lessons)

[tenkuna]

85000$ is very big with me. but maybe 85000$ is small with him and he is lost in this bet. He must have been very regretful doing so

[Extr22]

https://medium.com/@bartjellema/why-i-just-bought-90-b2x-bitcoin-segwit2x-futures-f94d0ee13eb9

Holy hell did anyone see this?

I just spent about $85.000 on buying B2X futures. This just means that once SegWit2x goes live, I’ll already have 90 coins. But why did I spent nearly a $1000/coin for coins that everyone will get for “free”?

This is crazy. One of the worst gambles I've seen. Another lesson for hardforkers... never bet big on a hardfork unless it has 99% consensus. It's a shame we will not see Roger Ver lose his BTC's. Also notice how he and a lot of other guys didn't accept the big bets proposed by Gmaxwell, Adam Back and Trace Mayer of up to 25000 BTC. Adam was looking for ridiculously low ratios lately to do OTC trading and no one accepted. I think a lot of people have been aware of this happening a long time before they cancelled. We saw massive inside trading yesterday.

it is not gambling he is crazy but 85k in new projects without now what will happen in future (it is so risky to put it in bitcoin)

[paytplay]

i am not sure what the person spent money on or who he lost it to, any help for me , i been away for a tad

[Boximuss]

I just want to say, this proves once again - the market of crypto currency is unpredictable
If you put money in there - be ready to say goodbye to them

[East7547]

Read this on another site earlier, how can you invest that much money on something that doesn’t actually exist

[cellard]

He claims that this was only a fairly small amount of his money, so I suppose this guy must be extremely rich or a liar.  If he's a liar, it's possible that he didn't invest that much in the first place.  If he's extremely rich, it doesn't matter too much because the number means less to him than it does to us.

This is crazy. One of the worst gambles I've seen. Another lesson for hardforkers... never bet big on a hardfork unless it has 99% consensus.

If you already perceive it to have 99% consensus, it wouldn't be betting big.  You might be betting a lot of money, but the risk would be negligible and the amount of money that you would gain for being correct would also be negligible.

In reality, it's very hard to measure consensus.  Where this guy went wrong is trying to measure it rather than just being part of consensus.

He looks really young, there's a pic of him on there and he looks to be on his 20's, so I don't see how he is rich, unless his parents are really rich and he is gambling with his parent's moneys, for 99% of 20 year olds $85000 is a lot of money.

It was always a bad bet. If 2x won I would be done with bitcoin and most people would too. If an contentious hard work wins you would be holding a shitcoin so if you made some $ gains better dump it quickly, fortunately they didn't get away with it once again. Everytime people lose money on these fork-bets bitcoin show's his strength by making real BTC holders richer and contentious-hardfork supporters poorer.